Predicted vs. actual

A weekly backtest of the model. Per-position MAE, calibration by predicted-points decile, residual distribution, and rank fidelity.

Position

All QB RB WR TE

Format

PPR Standard

Season

2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020

QB MAE

6.92

499 weeks · -0.27 bias

RB MAE

5.67

1,118 weeks · +0.64 bias

WR MAE

5.52

1,688 weeks · -0.45 bias

TE MAE

4.34

947 weeks · +0.04 bias

Diagnostics — All positions · 4,252 weeks

MAE

5.46

lower is better

RMSE

7.22

penalizes large misses

Calibration · predicted vs. actual by decile

Each point is a decile of predicted points. A well-calibrated model sits on the 45° line — points above mean the model under-predicts; below, it over-predicts.

Residual distribution · actual − predicted

How miss-magnitudes spread out. Mass left of zero = over-predicted weeks; mass right = under-predicted. Centered, narrow = good.

< −15

34 (1%)

−15 to −10

161 (4%)

−10 to −5

742 (17%)

−5 to −2

943 (22%)

−2 to 0

619 (15%)

0 to 2

403 (9%)

2 to 5

472

Per-decile error decomposition

Rows are predicted-points deciles (D1 = bottom 10% of predictions, D10 = top 10%). Bias is the model's systematic over- or under-shoot within that bucket.

Decile	n	Pred (μ)	Actual (μ)	Bias	MAE	RMSE
D1	426	2.01	3.33	-1.32	3.29	5.36
D2	426	3.65	3.60	+0.05	3.47	4.71
D3	425	5.18	5.38	-0.20	4.42	5.89
D4	425	6.30	5.82	+0.48	4.76	5.85
D5	425	7.49	7.32	+0.17	5.13	6.45
D6	425	8.68	8.47	+0.21	5.79	7.37
D7	425	10.25	11.11	-0.86	6.00	7.60
D8	425	12.70	12.61	+0.09	6.88	8.56
D9	425	15.13	14.84	+0.29	7.37	9.26
D10	425	18.70	17.97	+0.74	7.49	9.40

Model versions in this slice

xgboost_qb_backfill_2020_20260516_002100QB:1064 · backfilled

xgboost_te_backfill_2020_20260516_002120TE:1933 · backfilled

xgboost_wr_backfill_2020_20260516_002115WR:3469 · backfilled

xgboost_rb_backfill_2020_20260516_002104RB:2223 · backfilled

No.	Player	Pos	Team	Pred ppg	Actual ppg	Δ ppg	MAE↑
1	Cody Hollister	WR	TEN	2.50	2.20	-0.30	0.30
2	Gehrig Dieter	WR	KC	1.40	2.00	+0.60	0.60
3	Senorise Perry	RB	TEN	1.26	0.23	-1.03	1.03
4	Cullen Gillaspia	RB	SEA	1.25	0.40	-0.85	1.05
5	Matthew Slater	WR	NE	1.07	0.00	-1.07	1.07
6	AJ McCarron	QB	CIN	1.49	0.40	-1.08	1.08
7	JoJo Natson	WR	CLE	1.24	0.10	-1.14	1.14
8	Riley Ridley	WR	CHI	5.10	3.95	-1.15	1.15
9	D.J. Foster	RB	ARI	1.28	0.32	-0.97	1.15
10	Deon Yelder	TE	NYG	2.93	1.77	-1.16	1.16
11	Tanner Hudson	TE	CIN	2.79	1.77	-1.02	1.20
12	Nsimba Webster	WR	CHI	1.33	0.00	-1.33	1.33
13	Taiwan Jones	RB	NYG	1.37	0.00	-1.37	1.37
14	Trenton Cannon	RB	TEN	1.25	0.72	-0.53	1.41
15	Dwayne Harris	WR	CHI	1.52	0.00	-1.52	1.52
16	Dexter Williams	RB	CLE	2.36	0.80	-1.56	1.56
17	Darrius Shepherd	WR	DEN	2.12	1.20	-0.92	1.57
18	Ashton Dulin	WR	IND	1.91	0.94	-0.97	1.57
19	Diontae Spencer	WR	NYJ	1.90	1.23	-0.68	1.66
20	Jarrett Stidham	QB	DEN	1.91	2.59	+0.68	1.68
21	C.J. Board	WR	TEN	2.92	1.95	-0.98	1.72
22	Jamal Agnew	WR	ATL	1.29	2.23	+0.94	1.72
23	Blake Bell	TE	KC	3.10	2.02	-1.08	1.73
24	Devine Ozigbo	RB	DET	1.18	2.22	+1.04	1.77
25	Corey Clement	RB	ARI	1.39	2.10	+0.71	1.79
26	Robert Foster	WR	NYG	3.72	1.90	-1.82	1.82
27	Maxx Williams	TE	ARI	3.35	4.03	+0.68	1.85
28	Ryan Izzo	TE	TEN	3.82	3.09	-0.73	1.89
29	Isaac Nauta	TE	GB	2.56	0.65	-1.91	1.91
30	Ray-Ray McCloud	WR	NYG	1.20	2.12	+0.92	1.98
31	Buddy Howell	RB	LA	1.88	1.54	-0.34	2.01
32	Kenjon Barner	RB	TB	2.01	0.00	-2.01	2.01
33	Brandon Zylstra	WR	DET	3.10	1.32	-1.78	2.03
34	DeAndre Carter	WR	CLE	2.18	0.14	-2.04	2.04
35	Levine Toilolo	TE	NYG	3.43	1.37	-2.06	2.06
36	Durham Smythe	TE	BAL	3.64	4.52	+0.89	2.06
37	Daniel Brown	TE	NYJ	2.81	0.64	-2.17	2.21
38	Ryan Nall	RB	CHI	1.32	2.30	+0.98	2.21
39	Luke Stocker	TE	MIN	3.32	1.21	-2.11	2.24
40	Chris Manhertz	TE	NYG	3.86	1.60	-2.26	2.26
41	Tyler Ervin	RB	GB	2.37	3.26	+0.90	2.29
42	Steven Mitchell	WR	HOU	3.43	2.75	-0.68	2.34
43	Chris Thompson	RB	CHI	7.03	7.10	+0.07	2.35
44	Luke Willson	TE	SEA	3.58	1.10	-2.48	2.48
45	Jakeem Grant	WR	CLE	6.14	6.24	+0.09	2.52
46	Chris Moore	WR	WAS	2.52	0.00	-2.52	2.52
47	Ross Dwelley	TE	CAR	4.92	4.13	-0.79	2.56
48	D'Ernest Johnson	RB	NE	2.76	1.50	-1.26	2.57
49	Jaeden Graham	TE	ATL	3.28	0.69	-2.60	2.60
50	Andre Roberts	WR	CAR	3.08	0.47	-2.60	2.60
51	Gunner Olszewski	WR	NYG	1.86	1.96	+0.10	2.61
52	Blake Jarwin	TE	DAL	4.84	2.20	-2.64	2.64
53	Darrell Daniels	TE	DET	2.79	2.58	-0.22	2.64
54	James O'Shaughnessy	TE	MIN	5.42	3.61	-1.81	2.67
55	Dawson Knox	TE	BUF	5.45	6.07	+0.62	2.69
56	Jalen Richard	RB	LV	5.62	3.93	-1.69	2.76
57	J.P. Holtz	TE	NO	2.83	0.00	-2.83	2.83
58	Ian Thomas	TE	LV	5.14	3.12	-2.03	2.84
59	Johnny Mundt	TE	PHI	2.54	1.86	-0.68	2.85
60	KeeSean Johnson	WR	BUF	6.56	4.04	-2.53	2.86
61	Tyler Eifert	TE	JAX	5.26	5.29	+0.03	2.87
62	Tavon Austin	WR	BUF	4.68	1.75	-2.93	2.93
63	Marcedes Lewis	TE	DEN	3.44	3.52	+0.07	2.95
64	Laquon Treadwell	WR	IND	7.40	5.72	-1.68	2.95
65	Trevon Wesco	TE	LV	3.46	0.50	-2.96	2.96
66	Isaiah Ford	WR	MIA	6.26	6.18	-0.08	2.97
67	Mack Hollins	WR	NE	3.04	3.42	+0.38	2.97
68	Marlon Mack	RB	ARI	11.62	8.60	-3.02	3.02
69	Nick Vannett	TE	LA	4.23	2.78	-1.45	3.02
70	Mike Thomas	WR	BAL	2.50	2.52	+0.02	3.03
71	Jace Sternberger	TE	PIT	2.40	3.67	+1.27	3.06
72	MyCole Pruitt	TE	PIT	3.35	4.38	+1.03	3.12
73	Eric Saubert	TE	SEA	3.79	0.66	-3.13	3.13
74	Cethan Carter	TE	MIA	3.92	0.79	-3.13	3.13
75	Cameron Brate	TE	TB	5.75	5.25	-0.50	3.15
76	Kyle Rudolph	TE	TB	6.19	5.45	-0.74	3.16
77	Antony Auclair	TE	TEN	3.16	0.00	-3.16	3.16
78	Adam Shaheen	TE	MIA	3.85	3.46	-0.39	3.16
79	KhaDarel Hodge	WR	ATL	2.56	4.14	+1.58	3.17
80	Tony Brooks-James	RB	ATL	3.61	0.40	-3.21	3.21
81	Virgil Green	TE	LAC	3.53	2.80	-0.73	3.22
82	Alex Armah	RB	WAS	3.88	0.64	-3.24	3.24
83	C.J. Prosise	RB	TB	5.52	2.54	-2.98	3.28
84	Chris Conley	WR	SF	8.68	6.94	-1.74	3.31
85	Jesse James	TE	LV	4.65	2.99	-1.66	3.31
86	Zay Jones	WR	ARI	5.92	3.32	-2.60	3.32
87	Ameer Abdullah	RB	IND	4.11	2.73	-1.38	3.36
88	Danny Amendola	WR	HOU	6.92	7.60	+0.68	3.38
89	Demetrius Harris	TE	ARI	4.39	1.05	-3.35	3.39
90	Steven Sims	WR	ARI	6.12	5.11	-1.01	3.39
91	David Njoku	TE	CLE	4.79	4.75	-0.03	3.40
92	Damion Ratley	WR	MIN	5.16	2.06	-3.10	3.41
93	Dontrell Hilliard	RB	TEN	4.61	1.20	-3.41	3.41
94	Frank Gore	RB	NYJ	7.65	6.08	-1.57	3.42
95	Travis Homer	RB	PIT	5.07	3.64	-1.43	3.43
96	Cordarrelle Patterson	RB	PIT	5.27	4.34	-0.93	3.45
97	Tarik Cohen	RB	CAR	9.28	5.83	-3.45	3.45
98	Jordan Wilkins	RB	CLE	5.14	4.72	-0.42	3.46
99	Jack Doyle	TE	IND	7.45	4.93	-2.52	3.48
100	J.J. Arcega-Whiteside	WR	SEA	6.40	2.90	-3.50	3.50
101	Miles Boykin	WR	CHI	5.38	4.97	-0.41	3.51
102	Taywan Taylor	WR	CLE	3.52	0.00	-3.52	3.52
103	Pharaoh Brown	TE	ARI	3.10	4.70	+1.60	3.53
104	Mo Alie-Cox	TE	IND	3.07	5.74	+2.67	3.53
105	Troy Fumagalli	TE	MIN	2.88	3.14	+0.26	3.55
106	DeAndre Washington	RB	MIA	6.53	4.28	-2.25	3.56
107	Kalif Raymond	WR	CHI	3.39	1.83	-1.56	3.58
108	Jake Kumerow	WR	BUF	5.62	9.20	+3.58	3.58
109	Drew Sample	TE	CIN	2.67	4.93	+2.26	3.58
110	Hunter Henry	TE	NE	10.70	10.38	-0.32	3.59
111	Devontae Booker	RB	NYG	2.69	5.57	+2.88	3.59
112	Byron Pringle	WR	WAS	7.17	5.86	-1.31	3.60
113	Kendrick Bourne	WR	ARI	7.25	8.65	+1.39	3.61
114	Jordan Akins	TE	JAX	4.94	6.44	+1.50	3.63
115	Brian Hill	RB	SF	7.03	5.96	-1.07	3.63
116	Dan Arnold	TE	JAX	4.07	6.45	+2.38	3.65
117	Andy Isabella	WR	PIT	4.58	4.98	+0.40	3.65
118	Larry Fitzgerald	WR	ARI	9.26	7.76	-1.50	3.67
119	Josh Reynolds	WR	NYJ	6.79	7.89	+1.11	3.68
120	Stanley Morgan	WR	TEN	3.68	0.00	-3.68	3.68
121	Christian Blake	WR	ATL	5.94	2.71	-3.23	3.69
122	Ty Montgomery	WR	NE	4.21	3.95	-0.25	3.73
123	Gus Edwards	RB	LAC	7.18	8.01	+0.83	3.74
124	Stephen Carlson	TE	CHI	4.34	0.59	-3.75	3.75
125	Foster Moreau	TE	HOU	4.76	4.13	-0.64	3.77
126	Anthony Firkser	TE	DET	5.37	5.58	+0.21	3.77
127	Austin Hooper	TE	ATL	9.19	9.28	+0.10	3.79
128	Duke Johnson	RB	BUF	8.00	7.67	-0.33	3.80
129	Vance McDonald	TE	PIT	5.53	2.49	-3.04	3.82
130	Marvin Hall	WR	ATL	4.02	5.48	+1.47	3.83
131	Tim Boyle	QB	NYG	3.77	-0.11	-3.88	3.88
132	Sammy Watkins	WR	BAL	8.88	8.74	-0.14	3.88
133	Randall Cobb	WR	NYJ	8.43	10.33	+1.91	3.91
134	Tyler Conklin	TE	DET	2.80	4.93	+2.13	3.91
135	Justice Hill	RB	BAL	4.87	1.18	-3.68	3.96
136	Troymaine Pope	RB	LAC	3.60	4.95	+1.35	3.96
137	N'Keal Harry	TE	SEA	4.76	5.68	+0.92	4.00
138	Derek Carrier	TE	LV	4.41	0.40	-4.01	4.01
139	Dontrelle Inman	WR	WAS	4.68	6.61	+1.93	4.03
140	Kalen Ballage	RB	PIT	8.80	8.54	-0.26	4.04
141	Demarcus Robinson	WR	SF	7.74	7.17	-0.57	4.04
142	Chris Hogan	WR	NO	3.61	5.16	+1.55	4.04
143	Ryan Griffin	TE	CHI	5.85	1.76	-4.09	4.08
144	Lee Smith	TE	ATL	3.31	3.90	+0.59	4.09
145	Darrel Williams	RB	ARI	7.01	4.19	-2.81	4.12
146	Geoff Swaim	TE	CLE	5.03	3.33	-1.70	4.13
147	Deonte Harty	WR	BAL	1.37	5.52	+4.15	4.15
148	Trent Sherfield	WR	BUF	4.32	1.11	-3.21	4.17
149	Bennie Fowler	WR	NO	5.75	1.55	-4.20	4.20
150	Gerald Everett	TE	CHI	9.15	6.19	-2.96	4.20
151	Noah Fant	TE	NO	7.69	10.66	+2.98	4.25
152	Zach Pascal	WR	ARI	8.38	8.56	+0.18	4.26
153	Nick Boyle	TE	BAL	5.99	4.14	-1.85	4.27
154	Jacob Hollister	TE	SEA	8.28	5.07	-3.21	4.27
155	Will Dissly	TE	LAC	7.83	4.07	-3.76	4.29
156	Justin Watson	WR	HOU	5.84	2.34	-3.50	4.33
157	Darren Fells	TE	TB	5.28	6.35	+1.07	4.33
158	Tyler Higbee	TE	LA	8.45	8.55	+0.10	4.35
159	Damiere Byrd	WR	HOU	6.83	7.71	+0.88	4.36
160	Philip Rivers	QB	IND	15.73	14.35	-1.38	4.36
161	Gardner Minshew	QB	ARI	15.38	17.85	+2.47	4.36
162	Hunter Renfrow	WR	CAR	10.48	8.22	-2.25	4.38
163	Seth Roberts	WR	GB	6.80	2.37	-4.43	4.43
164	Javon Wims	WR	ARI	5.98	1.70	-4.28	4.46
165	Drew Brees	QB	NO	18.89	17.46	-1.44	4.50
166	Josh Hill	TE	NO	5.79	2.07	-3.72	4.50
167	Austin Carr	WR	NO	6.19	2.34	-3.85	4.50
168	Trey Burton	TE	IND	4.66	6.62	+1.95	4.51
169	Malik Turner	WR	SF	4.52	0.00	-4.52	4.52
170	Kenny Stills	WR	NO	7.61	4.49	-3.12	4.53
171	Anthony Miller	WR	BAL	8.48	6.79	-1.68	4.57
172	Josh Adams	RB	NO	2.46	4.58	+2.12	4.60
173	Golden Tate	WR	TEN	11.82	7.21	-4.61	4.61
174	Mohamed Sanu	WR	SF	9.35	6.29	-3.06	4.63
175	Chad Beebe	WR	MIN	5.83	4.34	-1.49	4.65
176	Latavius Murray	RB	BUF	8.98	9.08	+0.10	4.74
177	Eric Ebron	TE	PIT	8.58	9.34	+0.77	4.74
178	Tyler Kroft	TE	MIA	2.99	5.99	+2.99	4.74
179	Tre'Quan Smith	WR	DET	6.41	7.93	+1.52	4.74
180	Ben Roethlisberger	QB	PIT	18.76	17.81	-0.95	4.76
181	Jeremy Sprinkle	TE	DAL	4.99	0.23	-4.76	4.76
182	James Washington	WR	NYG	7.88	6.20	-1.68	4.80
183	Samaje Perine	RB	CIN	1.22	5.48	+4.26	4.81
184	Jared Cook	TE	LAC	8.47	8.49	+0.03	4.84
185	Raheem Mostert	RB	LV	10.95	12.46	+1.51	4.84
186	Kenny Golladay	WR	NYG	17.05	13.16	-3.89	4.85
187	Mecole Hardman	WR	BUF	9.90	8.13	-1.77	4.86
188	Seth DeValve	TE	ARI	4.88	0.00	-4.88	4.88
189	Ricky Seals-Jones	TE	WAS	4.89	0.00	-4.89	4.89
190	Ted Ginn	WR	CHI	6.64	1.75	-4.89	4.89
191	Antonio Callaway	WR	DAL	5.90	1.00	-4.90	4.90
192	Chase Edmonds	RB	WAS	11.66	10.50	-1.16	4.92
193	Braxton Berrios	WR	HOU	2.75	6.08	+3.33	4.94
194	Marcus Johnson	WR	NYG	7.29	4.39	-2.90	4.94
195	Rico Gafford	WR	DEN	4.95	0.00	-4.95	4.95
196	Benny Snell	RB	PIT	6.30	4.99	-1.31	4.96
197	David Moore	WR	CAR	5.39	7.42	+2.04	5.01
198	DaeSean Hamilton	WR	MIA	6.45	5.19	-1.26	5.04
199	Dare Ogunbowale	RB	HOU	5.98	3.24	-2.73	5.04
200	Jason Witten	TE	LV	7.77	3.19	-4.58	5.10