Predicted vs. actual

A weekly backtest of the model. Per-position MAE, calibration by predicted-points decile, residual distribution, and rank fidelity.

Position

All QB RB WR TE

Format

PPR Standard

Season

2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020

QB MAE

6.51

491 weeks · +0.24 bias

RB MAE

5.95

1,138 weeks · +0.46 bias

WR MAE

5.35

1,954 weeks · +0.02 bias

TE MAE

4.08

910 weeks · +0.24 bias

Diagnostics — All positions · 4,493 weeks

MAE

5.37

lower is better

RMSE

7.00

penalizes large misses

Calibration · predicted vs. actual by decile

Each point is a decile of predicted points. A well-calibrated model sits on the 45° line — points above mean the model under-predicts; below, it over-predicts.

Residual distribution · actual − predicted

How miss-magnitudes spread out. Mass left of zero = over-predicted weeks; mass right = under-predicted. Centered, narrow = good.

< −15

24 (1%)

−15 to −10

153 (3%)

−10 to −5

848 (19%)

−5 to −2

1,053 (23%)

−2 to 0

630 (14%)

0 to 2

417 (9%)

2 to 5

507

Per-decile error decomposition

Rows are predicted-points deciles (D1 = bottom 10% of predictions, D10 = top 10%). Bias is the model's systematic over- or under-shoot within that bucket.

Decile	n	Pred (μ)	Actual (μ)	Bias	MAE	RMSE
D1	450	2.06	2.34	-0.27	2.70	4.36
D2	450	3.62	4.41	-0.79	3.94	5.47
D3	450	5.09	5.29	-0.19	4.03	5.23
D4	449	6.29	6.50	-0.22	4.95	6.36
D5	449	7.73	6.38	+1.35	5.16	6.17
D6	449	8.99	8.71	+0.28	6.11	7.54
D7	449	10.47	10.46	+0.01	6.42	7.87
D8	449	12.49	12.08	+0.41	6.60	8.17
D9	449	14.87	14.42	+0.45	6.75	8.57
D10	449	18.00	17.03	+0.98	7.08	8.72

Model versions in this slice

xgboost_qb_backfill_2021_20260516_002131QB:1122 · backfilled

xgboost_rb_backfill_2021_20260516_002145RB:2414 · backfilled

xgboost_te_backfill_2021_20260516_002202TE:1921 · backfilled

xgboost_wr_backfill_2021_20260516_002149WR:3672 · backfilled

No.	Player	Pos	Team	Pred ppg	Actual ppg	Δ ppg	MAE↑
1	Reggie Bonnafon	RB	WAS	3.44	3.60	+0.16	0.16
2	Jason Huntley	RB	IND	4.88	5.10	+0.22	0.22
3	Ito Smith	RB	DAL	5.87	6.40	+0.53	0.53
4	Nick Mullens	QB	JAX	10.90	9.88	-1.02	1.02
5	Jonathan Ward	RB	BAL	1.20	1.08	-0.13	1.02
6	Tommylee Lewis	WR	MIA	1.88	0.85	-1.03	1.03
7	Nathan Cottrell	RB	JAX	1.16	0.10	-1.06	1.06
8	Kenjon Barner	RB	TB	1.08	0.00	-1.08	1.08
9	Stanley Morgan	WR	TEN	1.25	0.31	-0.94	1.11
10	Taiwan Jones	RB	NYG	1.13	0.00	-1.13	1.13
11	Penny Hart	WR	ATL	1.48	1.17	-0.31	1.16
12	Chris Streveler	QB	NYJ	2.17	1.02	-1.15	1.29
13	Nsimba Webster	WR	CHI	1.30	0.00	-1.30	1.30
14	Dan Chisena	WR	CAR	1.39	0.00	-1.39	1.39
15	Marcus Kemp	WR	KC	1.58	0.37	-1.22	1.44
16	Diontae Spencer	WR	NYJ	1.54	0.05	-1.49	1.49
17	Ryan Nall	RB	CHI	1.89	0.36	-1.53	1.53
18	Cethan Carter	TE	MIA	1.99	0.45	-1.54	1.54
19	Deon Yelder	TE	NYG	2.55	1.00	-1.55	1.55
20	Matthew Slater	WR	NE	1.59	0.00	-1.59	1.59
21	JoJo Natson	WR	CLE	1.61	0.00	-1.61	1.61
22	Dwayne Washington	RB	DEN	2.24	0.60	-1.64	1.64
23	Derek Carrier	TE	LV	2.79	1.65	-1.14	1.74
24	Andre Roberts	WR	CAR	1.62	0.78	-0.84	1.75
25	Jakob Johnson	RB	HOU	2.08	1.38	-0.70	1.78
26	Adam Shaheen	TE	MIA	2.54	3.29	+0.75	1.81
27	J.P. Holtz	TE	NO	1.81	0.00	-1.81	1.81
28	Pharoh Cooper	WR	ARI	2.31	0.50	-1.81	1.81
29	Vyncint Smith	WR	IND	1.82	0.00	-1.82	1.82
30	Pharaoh Brown	TE	ARI	3.08	2.93	-0.15	1.86
31	Kaden Smith	TE	WAS	2.55	1.57	-0.97	1.88
32	Nick Foles	QB	IND	14.92	16.80	+1.88	1.88
33	Trent Sherfield	WR	BUF	1.58	2.02	+0.44	1.89
34	Tyrie Cleveland	WR	IND	1.90	0.00	-1.90	1.90
35	Trevon Wesco	TE	LV	2.21	0.81	-1.40	1.95
36	Will Dissly	TE	LAC	4.39	3.85	-0.54	1.97
37	Blake Bell	TE	KC	3.03	1.70	-1.33	1.98
38	C.J. Board	WR	TEN	3.10	1.62	-1.48	1.99
39	Jeremy Sprinkle	TE	DAL	2.42	1.02	-1.40	2.00
40	Blaine Gabbert	QB	KC	2.36	0.33	-2.03	2.03
41	Charlie Woerner	TE	ATL	2.74	1.27	-1.46	2.08
42	Luke Stocker	TE	MIN	2.61	0.53	-2.08	2.08
43	Eric Saubert	TE	SEA	2.27	1.93	-0.34	2.11
44	Marcedes Lewis	TE	DEN	3.29	3.42	+0.13	2.14
45	Cameron Brate	TE	TB	4.37	4.91	+0.54	2.15
46	Ashton Dulin	WR	IND	2.02	2.84	+0.82	2.19
47	Dede Westbrook	WR	GB	3.12	1.12	-2.00	2.25
48	Dominique Dafney	TE	CAR	2.90	0.90	-2.00	2.25
49	Demetrius Harris	TE	ARI	2.65	0.40	-2.25	2.25
50	Gunner Olszewski	WR	NYG	2.56	0.38	-2.19	2.26
51	Colin Thompson	TE	CAR	2.29	0.00	-2.29	2.29
52	Tyler Kroft	TE	MIA	5.31	4.37	-0.94	2.29
53	Jalen Richard	RB	LV	4.71	2.58	-2.13	2.31
54	Tajae Sharpe	WR	SF	2.40	3.40	+1.00	2.32
55	Johnny Mundt	TE	PHI	2.95	0.63	-2.32	2.32
56	Logan Thomas	TE	WAS	10.14	10.72	+0.58	2.33
57	Darrynton Evans	RB	CHI	6.14	3.80	-2.34	2.34
58	Mike Thomas	WR	BAL	3.84	1.46	-2.38	2.38
59	Adrian Peterson	RB	SEA	8.08	5.67	-2.41	2.41
60	Malik Taylor	WR	NYJ	2.66	0.49	-2.18	2.41
61	Cullen Gillaspia	RB	SEA	2.44	0.00	-2.44	2.44
62	Daniel Brown	TE	NYJ	2.36	1.63	-0.73	2.46
63	Austin Walter	RB	LV	4.58	4.75	+0.17	2.50
64	Ryan Griffin	TE	CHI	2.97	4.65	+1.68	2.54
65	Lee Smith	TE	ATL	2.37	2.20	-0.17	2.57
66	Devin Duvernay	WR	ARI	5.00	4.83	-0.17	2.58
67	Tevin Coleman	RB	SF	4.86	4.68	-0.17	2.61
68	Jacob Hollister	TE	SEA	5.00	2.93	-2.08	2.63
69	Auden Tate	WR	ARI	4.75	3.23	-1.53	2.63
70	Cameron Batson	WR	ATL	3.79	2.75	-1.04	2.68
71	Anthony McFarland	RB	PIT	3.88	1.20	-2.68	2.68
72	Michael Gallup	WR	DAL	10.63	10.17	-0.46	2.70
73	Richard Rodgers	TE	LAC	5.80	3.10	-2.70	2.70
74	Chris Manhertz	TE	NYG	3.53	1.91	-1.62	2.75
75	Kyle Rudolph	TE	TB	5.93	4.06	-1.87	2.75
76	Calvin Ridley	WR	TEN	15.02	14.22	-0.80	2.77
77	Antonio Gandy-Golden	WR	WAS	2.78	0.00	-2.78	2.78
78	Durham Smythe	TE	BAL	5.44	4.38	-1.06	2.79
79	Ian Thomas	TE	LV	4.71	2.63	-2.08	2.80
80	Stephen Anderson	TE	LAC	3.79	2.75	-1.04	2.80
81	MyCole Pruitt	TE	PIT	3.83	4.85	+1.02	2.82
82	Ben Ellefson	TE	MIN	2.84	0.00	-2.84	2.84
83	Alex Armah	RB	WAS	2.91	1.02	-1.89	2.86
84	Jaydon Mickens	WR	IND	3.15	0.27	-2.88	2.88
85	J.J. Arcega-Whiteside	WR	SEA	3.70	0.80	-2.90	2.90
86	James O'Shaughnessy	TE	MIN	5.52	7.20	+1.68	2.93
87	Jaylen Samuels	RB	HOU	4.02	1.77	-2.25	2.93
88	Noah Brown	WR	WAS	3.84	3.82	-0.01	2.97
89	Ross Dwelley	TE	CAR	3.68	3.77	+0.09	2.99
90	K.J. Hill	WR	LAC	2.97	1.00	-1.97	3.04
91	Harrison Bryant	TE	SEA	5.62	4.15	-1.47	3.09
92	Jeremy McNichols	RB	WAS	5.83	5.66	-0.17	3.10
93	Darrell Daniels	TE	DET	3.21	0.10	-3.11	3.11
94	Cam Akers	RB	SEA	7.41	4.30	-3.11	3.11
95	Mike Boone	RB	CAR	4.90	2.57	-2.33	3.12
96	Quez Watkins	WR	PHI	5.72	6.82	+1.10	3.12
97	Mohamed Sanu	WR	SF	6.90	4.46	-2.44	3.15
98	Chris Carson	RB	SEA	13.09	12.03	-1.07	3.16
99	Patrick Laird	RB	TB	4.87	1.70	-3.17	3.17
100	Ray-Ray McCloud	WR	NYG	2.93	4.26	+1.33	3.22
101	Equanimeous St. Brown	WR	NO	4.44	1.68	-2.76	3.27
102	Brandon Powell	WR	MIN	3.50	1.00	-2.50	3.28
103	Ty Montgomery	WR	NE	3.36	2.14	-1.23	3.29
104	Jonathan Williams	RB	WAS	5.58	4.14	-1.44	3.32
105	Brandon Zylstra	WR	DET	3.37	4.08	+0.72	3.32
106	Olamide Zaccheaus	WR	ATL	5.47	5.99	+0.51	3.33
107	Donald Parham	TE	PIT	2.68	4.54	+1.86	3.34
108	Tyler Johnson	WR	DAL	5.64	4.50	-1.14	3.37
109	Geoff Swaim	TE	CLE	3.28	4.38	+1.09	3.42
110	Darren Fells	TE	TB	6.22	2.77	-3.45	3.45
111	Jared Cook	TE	LAC	7.64	7.99	+0.35	3.47
112	JaMycal Hasty	RB	MIA	7.39	4.68	-2.71	3.47
113	Albert Okwuegbunam	TE	LV	6.18	5.43	-0.75	3.48
114	Lil'Jordan Humphrey	WR	DEN	5.87	6.24	+0.37	3.48
115	Anthony Firkser	TE	DET	6.26	4.87	-1.39	3.53
116	Nick Vannett	TE	LA	4.25	4.22	-0.04	3.54
117	Trent Taylor	WR	SF	3.91	1.52	-2.39	3.59
118	Austin Hooper	TE	ATL	7.90	6.17	-1.73	3.60
119	Artavis Pierce	RB	CLE	3.61	0.00	-3.61	3.61
120	Hayden Hurst	TE	LAC	8.02	5.34	-2.68	3.61
121	Travis Homer	RB	PIT	5.09	4.41	-0.67	3.63
122	Jerry Jeudy	WR	CLE	10.50	8.50	-2.00	3.64
123	River Cracraft	WR	WAS	3.64	0.00	-3.64	3.64
124	Jimmy Garoppolo	QB	LA	14.20	15.17	+0.97	3.66
125	Cole Kmet	TE	CHI	5.61	7.13	+1.52	3.66
126	Tavon Austin	WR	BUF	3.97	5.15	+1.18	3.66
127	Logan Woodside	QB	ARI	3.55	-0.15	-3.70	3.70
128	Miles Boykin	WR	CHI	5.40	1.60	-3.80	3.80
129	DeAndre Carter	WR	CLE	1.52	4.47	+2.95	3.82
130	Josh Jacobs	RB	GB	12.62	15.07	+2.44	3.84
131	Alex Erickson	WR	HOU	4.39	0.53	-3.86	3.86
132	Adam Trautman	TE	DEN	3.42	5.75	+2.34	3.89
133	Kenny Stills	WR	NO	4.80	2.70	-2.10	3.90
134	Jesse James	TE	LV	3.11	3.84	+0.73	3.91
135	DeVante Parker	WR	NE	11.50	11.50	+0.00	3.92
136	Mecole Hardman	WR	BUF	7.29	8.29	+1.00	3.92
137	Mo Alie-Cox	TE	IND	5.49	4.68	-0.80	3.92
138	Ryan Tannehill	QB	TEN	16.30	15.79	-0.51	3.93
139	Trenton Cannon	RB	TEN	3.97	0.04	-3.93	3.93
140	Keenan Allen	WR	LAC	16.22	16.11	-0.11	3.93
141	Tony Pollard	RB	TEN	8.80	10.84	+2.04	3.93
142	Royce Freeman	RB	LAC	5.69	2.88	-2.81	3.96
143	Tyler Conklin	TE	DET	5.61	8.14	+2.53	4.02
144	Jordan Akins	TE	JAX	6.48	3.48	-3.01	4.03
145	Adam Humphries	WR	WAS	7.84	4.47	-3.37	4.06
146	Dan Arnold	TE	JAX	6.36	7.39	+1.03	4.07
147	Breshad Perriman	WR	TB	8.37	6.68	-1.69	4.07
148	Jeff Smith	WR	ARI	5.97	2.13	-3.84	4.07
149	Laviska Shenault Jr.	WR	LAC	10.98	7.94	-3.04	4.07
150	Jack Doyle	TE	IND	5.59	5.28	-0.31	4.11
151	Ameer Abdullah	RB	IND	3.43	5.59	+2.16	4.11
152	Andy Dalton	QB	PHI	11.67	10.53	-1.14	4.13
153	Zay Jones	WR	ARI	4.54	7.06	+2.52	4.14
154	Keelan Cole	WR	LV	7.78	5.95	-1.83	4.14
155	Juwan Johnson	TE	NO	5.34	4.07	-1.27	4.15
156	Rodney Smith	RB	DET	5.64	9.80	+4.16	4.16
157	Jakobi Meyers	WR	JAX	13.45	11.64	-1.81	4.19
158	Isaiah Ford	WR	MIA	5.99	4.01	-1.98	4.23
159	Sammy Watkins	WR	BAL	8.92	6.86	-2.06	4.26
160	Chris Conley	WR	SF	6.10	4.61	-1.49	4.29
161	Buddy Howell	RB	LA	4.52	0.22	-4.30	4.30
162	Freddie Swain	WR	MIA	4.16	5.09	+0.93	4.33
163	Samaje Perine	RB	CIN	7.52	5.55	-1.97	4.33
164	Evan Engram	TE	DEN	10.89	6.83	-4.05	4.35
165	Tre'Quan Smith	WR	DET	9.44	8.77	-0.67	4.35
166	A.J. Green	WR	ARI	10.15	10.36	+0.21	4.36
167	KJ Hamler	WR	BUF	8.52	4.13	-4.39	4.39
168	James Washington	WR	NYG	6.42	4.39	-2.03	4.41
169	Nick Boyle	TE	BAL	5.03	0.60	-4.43	4.42
170	Jonnu Smith	TE	PIT	8.08	4.35	-3.73	4.44
171	Peyton Barber	RB	LV	4.46	5.54	+1.08	4.44
172	Robert Woods	WR	HOU	13.03	15.24	+2.21	4.45
173	Demarcus Robinson	WR	SF	6.86	4.96	-1.90	4.46
174	Ke'Shawn Vaughn	RB	SF	4.58	6.10	+1.52	4.46
175	Foster Moreau	TE	HOU	3.87	5.69	+1.82	4.47
176	Jimmy Graham	TE	NO	7.58	4.61	-2.97	4.49
177	David Njoku	TE	CLE	3.98	7.17	+3.19	4.49
178	Latavius Murray	RB	BUF	9.09	6.92	-2.17	4.49
179	N'Keal Harry	TE	SEA	7.52	3.04	-4.48	4.52
180	James Proche	WR	TEN	1.33	5.17	+3.84	4.52
181	Le'Veon Bell	RB	TB	8.79	4.76	-4.02	4.53
182	Gerald Everett	TE	CHI	6.28	7.94	+1.66	4.54
183	Teddy Bridgewater	QB	DET	15.00	14.67	-0.33	4.54
184	Nelson Agholor	WR	BAL	9.03	7.26	-1.77	4.55
185	Isaiah McKenzie	WR	MIA	4.17	3.63	-0.53	4.65
186	Bryan Edwards	WR	KC	4.73	6.82	+2.09	4.66
187	Mack Hollins	WR	NE	5.08	4.02	-1.06	4.67
188	Tyler Higbee	TE	LA	6.65	9.80	+3.15	4.67
189	Alex Collins	RB	SEA	7.24	6.25	-0.99	4.68
190	Chad Henne	QB	KC	5.52	0.82	-4.70	4.70
191	Trayveon Williams	RB	CLE	6.33	1.63	-4.70	4.70
192	Jarvis Landry	WR	NO	11.44	11.08	-0.36	4.71
193	Henry Ruggs III	WR	LV	8.53	12.07	+3.54	4.72
194	DJ Moore	WR	BUF	14.92	13.97	-0.95	4.73
195	Dare Ogunbowale	RB	HOU	5.01	3.85	-1.15	4.75
196	Byron Pringle	WR	WAS	4.85	8.05	+3.20	4.75
197	Malcolm Brown	RB	LA	8.17	3.75	-4.42	4.76
198	Devontae Booker	RB	NYG	7.16	8.44	+1.28	4.76
199	Ben Roethlisberger	QB	PIT	16.10	13.63	-2.47	4.80
200	Marvin Hall	WR	ATL	6.81	2.00	-4.81	4.81