Predicted vs. actual

A weekly backtest of the model. Per-position MAE, calibration by predicted-points decile, residual distribution, and rank fidelity.

Position

All QB RB WR TE

Format

PPR Standard

Season

2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020

QB MAE

6.25

531 weeks · -0.12 bias

RB MAE

5.53

1,143 weeks · +1.10 bias

WR MAE

5.15

1,901 weeks · +0.26 bias

TE MAE

3.95

947 weeks · +0.69 bias

Diagnostics — All positions · 4,522 weeks

MAE

5.12

lower is better

RMSE

6.69

penalizes large misses

Calibration · predicted vs. actual by decile

Each point is a decile of predicted points. A well-calibrated model sits on the 45° line — points above mean the model under-predicts; below, it over-predicts.

Residual distribution · actual − predicted

How miss-magnitudes spread out. Mass left of zero = over-predicted weeks; mass right = under-predicted. Centered, narrow = good.

< −15

10 (0%)

−15 to −10

155 (3%)

−10 to −5

906 (20%)

−5 to −2

1,094 (24%)

−2 to 0

659 (15%)

0 to 2

438 (10%)

2 to 5

471

Per-decile error decomposition

Rows are predicted-points deciles (D1 = bottom 10% of predictions, D10 = top 10%). Bias is the model's systematic over- or under-shoot within that bucket.

Decile	n	Pred (μ)	Actual (μ)	Bias	MAE	RMSE
D1	453	2.15	2.66	-0.51	2.66	4.30
D2	453	3.76	3.63	+0.13	3.60	4.70
D3	452	5.05	4.63	+0.42	3.90	5.07
D4	452	6.08	5.46	+0.62	4.41	5.59
D5	452	7.60	6.18	+1.42	5.32	6.43
D6	452	9.09	7.84	+1.25	5.50	6.71
D7	452	10.77	10.07	+0.70	6.38	7.89
D8	452	12.72	12.16	+0.57	6.38	7.95
D9	452	14.31	14.08	+0.23	6.20	8.13
D10	452	17.79	17.45	+0.34	6.89	8.48

Model versions in this slice

xgboost_wr_backfill_2022_20260516_002235WR:3895 · backfilled

xgboost_qb_backfill_2022_20260516_002214QB:1135 · backfilled

xgboost_te_backfill_2022_20260516_002256TE:2069 · backfilled

xgboost_rb_backfill_2022_20260516_002224RB:2423 · backfilled

No.	Player	Pos	Team	Pred ppg	Actual ppg	Δ ppg	MAE↑
1	Frank Darby	WR	ATL	2.46	2.50	+0.04	0.04
2	Blaine Gabbert	QB	KC	4.91	5.16	+0.25	0.25
3	Jacob Harris	WR	PHI	1.11	0.53	-0.57	0.86
4	Tyron Johnson	WR	DAL	1.35	0.90	-0.45	0.87
5	Tylan Wallace	WR	CLE	2.38	1.46	-0.92	0.92
6	Andre Roberts	WR	CAR	0.99	0.00	-0.99	0.99
7	Tony Jones	RB	ARI	5.61	4.60	-1.01	1.01
8	Luke Farrell	TE	SF	3.04	2.00	-1.04	1.03
9	Andy Isabella	WR	PIT	1.46	1.05	-0.41	1.04
10	Dan Chisena	WR	CAR	1.05	0.00	-1.05	1.05
11	Kendall Blanton	TE	KC	3.60	2.75	-0.85	1.06
12	Cullen Gillaspia	RB	SEA	1.09	0.00	-1.09	1.09
13	Taiwan Jones	RB	NYG	1.10	0.00	-1.10	1.10
14	Dezmon Patmon	WR	CAR	3.18	4.40	+1.22	1.22
15	Parker Hesse	TE	DET	2.67	1.49	-1.18	1.25
16	Trent Taylor	WR	SF	1.06	0.86	-0.21	1.34
17	Cody White	WR	SEA	2.55	1.20	-1.35	1.35
18	Matthew Slater	WR	NE	1.36	0.00	-1.36	1.36
19	Larry Rountree III	RB	HOU	4.00	2.65	-1.35	1.36
20	Alex Erickson	WR	HOU	1.38	0.00	-1.38	1.38
21	Gunner Olszewski	WR	NYG	1.65	0.91	-0.74	1.39
22	Penny Hart	WR	ATL	2.65	1.25	-1.40	1.40
23	Jakob Johnson	RB	HOU	2.02	0.60	-1.42	1.42
24	Johnny Mundt	TE	PHI	2.18	3.00	+0.82	1.46
25	Marcus Kemp	WR	KC	1.47	0.00	-1.47	1.47
26	Ben Ellefson	TE	MIN	2.17	2.80	+0.63	1.52
27	Avery Williams	RB	NYJ	1.04	2.12	+1.08	1.54
28	David Sills	WR	TB	3.82	3.09	-0.74	1.61
29	Giovanni Ricci	TE	DET	2.05	1.64	-0.41	1.64
30	Feleipe Franks	TE	CAR	1.71	0.00	-1.71	1.71
31	Trevon Wesco	TE	LV	2.92	1.32	-1.60	1.74
32	Jack Stoll	TE	CLE	3.36	2.59	-0.77	1.75
33	Trenton Cannon	RB	TEN	1.83	0.00	-1.83	1.83
34	Tom Kennedy	WR	DET	3.02	4.42	+1.40	1.83
35	Noah Gray	TE	KC	3.02	4.12	+1.09	1.91
36	Amari Rodgers	WR	IND	1.77	1.94	+0.17	1.95
37	T.Y. Hilton	WR	DAL	5.30	6.37	+1.07	1.97
38	Tyrie Cleveland	WR	IND	1.83	0.96	-0.87	2.07
39	Adam Prentice	RB	DEN	2.89	0.80	-2.09	2.09
40	Mike Thomas	WR	BAL	2.85	1.56	-1.29	2.10
41	Chris Manhertz	TE	NYG	3.55	1.46	-2.10	2.13
42	Kenny Yeboah	TE	DET	2.13	0.00	-2.13	2.13
43	Ian Thomas	TE	LV	4.77	3.13	-1.64	2.13
44	Harrison Bryant	TE	SEA	4.70	4.41	-0.29	2.17
45	Racey McMath	WR	DAL	2.81	1.60	-1.21	2.19
46	Chris Myarick	TE	MIA	3.06	1.95	-1.11	2.20
47	Kyle Allen	QB	BUF	5.76	7.97	+2.21	2.21
48	J.P. Holtz	TE	NO	2.21	0.00	-2.21	2.21
49	Jonathan Ward	RB	BAL	3.52	1.30	-2.22	2.22
50	J.J. Taylor	RB	HOU	4.92	2.70	-2.22	2.22
51	Pharoh Cooper	WR	ARI	2.83	0.82	-2.01	2.22
52	Sean McKeon	TE	IND	3.27	1.03	-2.24	2.24
53	Ihmir Smith-Marsette	WR	ARI	2.40	0.10	-2.30	2.30
54	Dwayne Washington	RB	DEN	3.09	0.79	-2.30	2.30
55	Jonnu Smith	TE	PIT	5.22	4.33	-0.88	2.33
56	Tre' McKitty	TE	CLE	3.02	1.32	-1.69	2.35
57	Brandon Powell	WR	MIN	1.04	2.80	+1.76	2.39
58	Jaelon Darden	WR	SEA	2.62	0.34	-2.27	2.39
59	Mike Boone	RB	CAR	2.15	3.60	+1.45	2.42
60	Demetric Felton	RB	CHI	2.84	0.40	-2.44	2.44
61	Drew Sample	TE	CIN	3.35	0.90	-2.46	2.46
62	Kylen Granson	TE	TEN	3.28	4.71	+1.43	2.47
63	Sterling Shepard	WR	TB	11.67	11.47	-0.20	2.47
64	C.J. Board	WR	TEN	2.89	0.40	-2.49	2.49
65	Tyree Jackson	TE	WAS	2.50	0.00	-2.50	2.50
66	Mitchell Wilcox	TE	NE	1.74	4.10	+2.36	2.55
67	Royce Freeman	RB	LAC	7.33	4.75	-2.58	2.58
68	Jake Kumerow	WR	BUF	2.66	2.08	-0.58	2.58
69	Brian Hoyer	QB	LV	4.07	1.48	-2.59	2.59
70	Nick Boyle	TE	BAL	2.59	0.00	-2.59	2.59
71	Stanley Morgan	WR	TEN	2.60	0.00	-2.60	2.60
72	Hunter Long	TE	JAX	2.61	0.00	-2.61	2.61
73	Kevin White	WR	NO	2.57	1.57	-1.00	2.64
74	Anthony Firkser	TE	DET	5.02	2.38	-2.65	2.65
75	Phillip Lindsay	RB	IND	5.75	4.93	-0.82	2.65
76	Trayveon Williams	RB	CLE	3.30	1.14	-2.15	2.68
77	Brandon Allen	QB	NYG	3.46	0.78	-2.68	2.68
78	Dax Milne	WR	CAR	3.11	1.05	-2.07	2.68
79	Jesper Horsted	TE	LV	2.84	0.98	-1.86	2.69
80	Joshua Kelley	RB	TEN	5.10	5.40	+0.30	2.69
81	Denzel Mims	WR	PIT	3.53	3.29	-0.24	2.71
82	Jeff Smith	WR	ARI	3.44	3.06	-0.38	2.72
83	Cameron Brate	TE	TB	5.47	4.16	-1.32	2.72
84	Foster Moreau	TE	HOU	6.04	6.23	+0.19	2.73
85	KJ Hamler	WR	BUF	5.21	4.30	-0.92	2.73
86	Tommy Sweeney	TE	CHI	3.58	0.85	-2.73	2.73
87	Nsimba Webster	WR	CHI	0.66	3.40	+2.74	2.74
88	Stephen Anderson	TE	LAC	3.18	0.43	-2.75	2.75
89	Patrick Taylor	RB	SF	3.72	0.97	-2.75	2.75
90	Scott Miller	WR	PIT	3.14	3.52	+0.39	2.78
91	Tyler Davis	TE	GB	3.12	0.60	-2.52	2.81
92	Donald Parham	TE	PIT	4.27	4.83	+0.56	2.83
93	N'Keal Harry	TE	SEA	4.75	4.10	-0.65	2.84
94	Eric Saubert	TE	SEA	3.47	2.56	-0.91	2.85
95	Trey Sermon	RB	PIT	4.75	1.90	-2.85	2.85
96	Jauan Jennings	WR	SF	4.96	5.16	+0.20	2.86
97	Pharaoh Brown	TE	ARI	5.63	2.80	-2.83	2.89
98	Equanimeous St. Brown	WR	NO	2.79	4.04	+1.25	2.91
99	Joseph Fortson	TE	KC	3.90	3.18	-0.72	2.96
100	Eric Tomlinson	TE	LAC	2.38	3.61	+1.23	2.97
101	Nick Vannett	TE	LA	5.42	2.40	-3.02	3.02
102	Freddie Swain	WR	MIA	5.55	3.80	-1.75	3.05
103	Van Jefferson	WR	WAS	8.16	7.89	-0.27	3.06
104	Kevin Rader	TE	TEN	3.06	0.00	-3.06	3.06
105	Colby Parkinson	TE	LA	2.89	4.94	+2.05	3.08
106	Zach Gentry	TE	LV	4.51	2.30	-2.21	3.09
107	Jonathan Williams	RB	WAS	5.17	2.91	-2.26	3.09
108	Dare Ogunbowale	RB	HOU	3.80	3.37	-0.42	3.10
109	Will Dissly	TE	LAC	5.42	5.79	+0.37	3.14
110	Charlie Woerner	TE	ATL	3.15	0.00	-3.15	3.15
111	Terrace Marshall Jr.	WR	MIA	4.90	6.38	+1.48	3.15
112	Kendall Hinton	WR	DEN	3.94	5.13	+1.19	3.16
113	Gary Brightwell	RB	CIN	3.04	1.93	-1.10	3.17
114	DeSean Jackson	WR	BAL	5.66	3.47	-2.19	3.18
115	Josiah Deguara	TE	ARI	5.00	2.71	-2.29	3.19
116	Olamide Zaccheaus	WR	ATL	5.81	6.88	+1.07	3.22
117	Gerald Everett	TE	CHI	8.72	9.30	+0.58	3.23
118	Josh Gordon	WR	TEN	3.25	0.00	-3.25	3.25
119	Ashton Dulin	WR	IND	3.30	4.25	+0.95	3.25
120	Ke'Shawn Vaughn	RB	SF	4.96	1.70	-3.26	3.26
121	Malcolm Brown	RB	LA	5.91	3.26	-2.66	3.26
122	Robert Tonyan	TE	KC	6.19	6.59	+0.40	3.27
123	Kylin Hill	RB	GB	4.01	0.70	-3.31	3.31
124	Phillip Dorsett	WR	LV	4.62	3.45	-1.17	3.33
125	Marcedes Lewis	TE	DEN	4.94	4.43	-0.51	3.33
126	Dee Eskridge	WR	MIA	4.27	1.53	-2.74	3.34
127	Durham Smythe	TE	BAL	5.54	3.08	-2.47	3.35
128	Travis Homer	RB	PIT	5.33	4.31	-1.02	3.36
129	Brevin Jordan	TE	HOU	5.75	2.98	-2.77	3.37
130	O.J. Howard	TE	HOU	3.61	3.46	-0.15	3.38
131	Chris Evans	RB	CIN	3.88	1.28	-2.60	3.40
132	Mike Strachan	WR	WAS	4.96	1.78	-3.18	3.45
133	Corey Clement	RB	ARI	4.00	4.38	+0.38	3.45
134	Josh Oliver	TE	MIN	3.63	3.41	-0.23	3.46
135	Tyler Kroft	TE	MIA	5.08	1.62	-3.47	3.47
136	Trent Sherfield	WR	BUF	3.54	5.20	+1.66	3.49
137	Jake Funk	RB	JAX	3.49	0.00	-3.49	3.49
138	J.D. McKissic	RB	WAS	9.22	6.97	-2.25	3.51
139	DeeJay Dallas	RB	JAX	4.42	3.08	-1.34	3.55
140	River Cracraft	WR	WAS	1.03	3.90	+2.87	3.63
141	Julio Jones	WR	PHI	7.62	7.04	-0.58	3.63
142	Tommy Tremble	TE	CAR	4.73	3.63	-1.11	3.63
143	Braxton Berrios	WR	HOU	5.73	3.39	-2.34	3.67
144	Kyle Rudolph	TE	TB	4.87	2.36	-2.51	3.67
145	MyCole Pruitt	TE	PIT	5.05	5.31	+0.26	3.69
146	Randall Cobb	WR	NYJ	6.43	6.28	-0.15	3.70
147	Hayden Hurst	TE	LAC	5.62	8.11	+2.49	3.70
148	John Bates	TE	WAS	5.19	3.42	-1.77	3.70
149	Ronald Jones	RB	DAL	5.06	3.24	-1.82	3.71
150	Sammy Watkins	WR	BAL	6.93	4.85	-2.08	3.72
151	Kene Nwangwu	RB	NYJ	4.47	0.82	-3.65	3.72
152	Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	9.28	11.77	+2.48	3.75
153	Noah Fant	TE	NO	8.93	6.75	-2.18	3.76
154	KhaDarel Hodge	WR	ATL	4.35	3.43	-0.92	3.78
155	Blake Bell	TE	KC	3.29	5.00	+1.71	3.79
156	Anthony McFarland	RB	PIT	2.29	6.10	+3.81	3.81
157	James Proche	WR	TEN	4.80	1.11	-3.69	3.81
158	John Wolford	QB	MIN	3.57	7.40	+3.83	3.83
159	Giovani Bernard	RB	TB	5.01	1.18	-3.83	3.83
160	Ross Dwelley	TE	CAR	3.99	3.90	-0.09	3.84
161	Demarcus Robinson	WR	SF	5.19	6.09	+0.90	3.88
162	Ezekiel Elliott	RB	LAC	14.73	12.39	-2.34	3.90
163	Jimmy Garoppolo	QB	LA	14.23	14.98	+0.75	3.93
164	Deebo Samuel Sr.	WR	WAS	12.73	12.95	+0.22	3.93
165	Chris Moore	WR	WAS	5.35	7.67	+2.32	3.94
166	Jaret Patterson	RB	LAC	5.32	3.90	-1.42	3.96
167	Godwin Igwebuike	RB	PIT	4.31	0.34	-3.97	3.97
168	Brock Wright	TE	DET	4.87	4.54	-0.33	4.00
169	Jalen Guyton	WR	LV	6.33	4.20	-2.13	4.08
170	Ben Skowronek	WR	PIT	3.08	6.02	+2.94	4.08
171	Qadree Ollison	RB	PIT	4.11	0.00	-4.11	4.11
172	Dawson Knox	TE	BUF	9.99	9.05	-0.95	4.14
173	Jalen Reagor	WR	LAC	5.49	1.58	-3.91	4.19
174	Austin Hooper	TE	ATL	7.68	5.75	-1.93	4.20
175	C.J. Beathard	QB	DET	3.96	-0.25	-4.21	4.21
176	Adam Trautman	TE	DEN	7.25	3.73	-3.52	4.21
177	Rex Burkhead	RB	HOU	7.33	4.76	-2.57	4.22
178	Ray-Ray McCloud	WR	NYG	5.41	3.42	-2.00	4.22
179	DeAndre Carter	WR	CLE	6.45	7.08	+0.63	4.23
180	Kenneth Gainwell	RB	TB	7.40	5.17	-2.23	4.24
181	Shi Smith	WR	TEN	5.37	3.62	-1.75	4.24
182	Juwann Winfree	WR	IND	5.15	0.90	-4.25	4.25
183	Davis Mills	QB	HOU	11.99	12.10	+0.11	4.27
184	Brandin Cooks	WR	BUF	12.51	11.20	-1.31	4.27
185	Michael Gallup	WR	DAL	9.70	7.53	-2.17	4.27
186	Anthony Schwartz	WR	MIA	4.94	2.69	-2.25	4.30
187	Zach Ertz	TE	WAS	9.16	11.56	+2.40	4.33
188	Tyler Huntley	QB	BAL	13.00	10.00	-2.99	4.38
189	Pat Freiermuth	TE	PIT	7.55	9.88	+2.33	4.39
190	Laquon Treadwell	WR	IND	7.81	3.40	-4.41	4.41
191	Keith Kirkwood	WR	BAL	5.69	1.27	-4.42	4.42
192	Nico Collins	WR	HOU	5.46	9.71	+4.25	4.44
193	Donovan Peoples-Jones	WR	DET	9.59	9.83	+0.24	4.44
194	Chris Godwin Jr.	WR	TB	14.40	14.85	+0.45	4.45
195	Benny Snell	RB	PIT	4.46	2.08	-2.38	4.47
196	Malik Turner	WR	SF	4.54	0.00	-4.54	4.54
197	Quez Watkins	WR	PHI	6.84	4.97	-1.87	4.55
198	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	WR	DAL	9.94	7.46	-2.47	4.56
199	Trinity Benson	WR	CLE	4.58	0.00	-4.58	4.58
200	Marquise Goodwin	WR	CLE	6.05	5.83	-0.22	4.58