Predicted vs. actual

A weekly backtest of the model. Per-position MAE, calibration by predicted-points decile, residual distribution, and rank fidelity.

Position

All QB RB WR TE

Format

PPR Standard

Season

2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020

QB MAE

7.05

517 weeks · +0.76 bias

RB MAE

5.40

1,181 weeks · +0.78 bias

WR MAE

5.27

1,876 weeks · +0.93 bias

TE MAE

3.83

949 weeks · +0.62 bias

Diagnostics — All positions · 4,523 weeks

MAE

5.21

lower is better

RMSE

6.79

penalizes large misses

Calibration · predicted vs. actual by decile

Each point is a decile of predicted points. A well-calibrated model sits on the 45° line — points above mean the model under-predicts; below, it over-predicts.

Residual distribution · actual − predicted

How miss-magnitudes spread out. Mass left of zero = over-predicted weeks; mass right = under-predicted. Centered, narrow = good.

< −15

26 (1%)

−15 to −10

213 (5%)

−10 to −5

861 (19%)

−5 to −2

1,154 (26%)

−2 to 0

635 (14%)

0 to 2

430 (10%)

2 to 5

464

Per-decile error decomposition

Rows are predicted-points deciles (D1 = bottom 10% of predictions, D10 = top 10%). Bias is the model's systematic over- or under-shoot within that bucket.

Decile	n	Pred (μ)	Actual (μ)	Bias	MAE	RMSE
D1	453	2.17	2.55	-0.38	2.76	4.19
D2	453	3.75	3.45	+0.30	3.34	4.38
D3	453	4.86	4.50	+0.35	3.98	5.11
D4	452	6.21	5.65	+0.56	4.75	6.16
D5	452	7.70	6.08	+1.62	4.97	5.96
D6	452	9.01	8.05	+0.96	5.49	6.95
D7	452	10.81	10.06	+0.75	6.31	7.62
D8	452	12.84	11.12	+1.72	6.61	8.20
D9	452	14.58	13.35	+1.23	6.68	8.30
D10	452	17.71	16.77	+0.94	7.17	9.08

Model versions in this slice

xgboost_wr_backfill_2023_20260516_002327WR:3706 · backfilled

xgboost_te_backfill_2023_20260516_002332TE:2006 · backfilled

xgboost_rb_backfill_2023_20260516_002318RB:2448 · backfilled

xgboost_qb_backfill_2023_20260516_002302QB:1241 · backfilled

No.	Player	Pos	Team	Pred ppg	Actual ppg	Δ ppg	MAE↑
1	Devine Ozigbo	RB	DET	2.36	2.30	-0.06	0.06
2	Chris Evans	RB	CIN	0.68	0.70	+0.02	0.85
3	Dan Chisena	WR	CAR	0.99	0.00	-0.99	0.99
4	J.K. Dobbins	RB	DEN	12.71	11.70	-1.01	1.01
5	DJ Turner	WR	LV	1.08	0.00	-1.08	1.08
6	Jalen Nailor	WR	LV	2.62	1.97	-0.65	1.10
7	Kene Nwangwu	RB	NYJ	1.29	0.16	-1.13	1.13
8	Matthew Slater	WR	NE	1.13	0.00	-1.13	1.13
9	Andy Isabella	WR	PIT	1.16	0.00	-1.16	1.16
10	Miles Boykin	WR	CHI	1.83	0.59	-1.24	1.24
11	Geoff Swaim	TE	CLE	3.58	2.51	-1.07	1.25
12	Ameer Abdullah	RB	IND	2.90	2.56	-0.34	1.28
13	James Mitchell	TE	CAR	3.71	2.40	-1.31	1.31
14	Nick Vannett	TE	LA	2.65	1.30	-1.35	1.35
15	Grant Calcaterra	TE	PHI	3.52	2.63	-0.89	1.41
16	Jaelon Darden	WR	SEA	1.41	0.00	-1.41	1.41
17	Gary Brightwell	RB	CIN	2.75	2.90	+0.15	1.50
18	Britain Covey	WR	PHI	1.28	0.55	-0.73	1.50
19	Stephen Sullivan	TE	CAR	2.45	2.45	-0.00	1.56
20	Jakob Johnson	RB	HOU	1.72	0.28	-1.44	1.58
21	Jarrett Stidham	QB	DEN	14.94	13.32	-1.62	1.62
22	Montrell Washington	WR	KC	1.63	0.00	-1.63	1.63
23	Stanley Morgan	WR	TEN	1.64	0.00	-1.64	1.64
24	Kevin Rader	TE	TEN	1.88	0.23	-1.65	1.65
25	Stephen Anderson	TE	LAC	1.66	0.00	-1.66	1.66
26	Luke Farrell	TE	SF	3.03	2.85	-0.18	1.72
27	Charlie Woerner	TE	ATL	2.19	0.62	-1.57	1.73
28	Teagan Quitoriano	TE	ARI	3.51	1.77	-1.74	1.74
29	Cole Turner	TE	MIA	2.83	2.88	+0.04	1.76
30	Jeremy Ruckert	TE	NYJ	2.03	3.11	+1.08	1.79
31	Deven Thompkins	WR	ATL	1.66	2.05	+0.39	1.79
32	Godwin Igwebuike	RB	PIT	1.80	0.00	-1.80	1.80
33	Tyrion Davis-Price	RB	PHI	3.96	2.10	-1.86	1.86
34	Eric Saubert	TE	SEA	3.29	1.40	-1.89	1.89
35	Tim Jones	WR	JAX	2.89	1.93	-0.96	1.96
36	Ross Dwelley	TE	CAR	3.06	1.10	-1.96	1.97
37	Trayveon Williams	RB	CLE	2.95	0.93	-2.02	2.02
38	Kenny Yeboah	TE	DET	1.53	1.60	+0.07	2.05
39	Patrick Taylor	RB	SF	3.78	2.73	-1.06	2.11
40	Trent Taylor	WR	SF	2.13	-0.01	-2.14	2.14
41	Isaiah Spiller	RB	LV	4.17	2.11	-2.06	2.18
42	Trevon Wesco	TE	LV	2.60	0.62	-1.98	2.20
43	Taylor Heinicke	QB	LAC	14.78	13.20	-1.58	2.22
44	D'Ernest Johnson	RB	NE	2.31	2.32	+0.01	2.24
45	Ray-Ray McCloud	WR	NYG	3.80	2.38	-1.42	2.28
46	Jack Stoll	TE	CLE	3.75	1.47	-2.28	2.28
47	Peyton Hendershot	TE	KC	3.33	0.97	-2.36	2.36
48	Deonte Harty	WR	BAL	2.18	2.81	+0.64	2.37
49	Noah Gray	TE	KC	4.22	4.41	+0.20	2.37
50	Stone Smartt	TE	PHI	2.81	2.71	-0.10	2.40
51	Jesper Horsted	TE	LV	2.69	0.28	-2.41	2.41
52	Dareke Young	WR	LV	2.41	0.00	-2.41	2.41
53	Steven Sims	WR	ARI	3.82	1.87	-1.96	2.42
54	Drew Sample	TE	CIN	2.79	3.59	+0.81	2.43
55	Cam Akers	RB	SEA	9.03	6.67	-2.35	2.46
56	Adam Prentice	RB	DEN	2.86	0.40	-2.46	2.46
57	C.J. Uzomah	TE	PHI	4.22	2.48	-1.75	2.49
58	Kenneth Gainwell	RB	TB	5.29	6.09	+0.80	2.51
59	Chris Manhertz	TE	NYG	3.06	0.51	-2.55	2.55
60	MyCole Pruitt	TE	PIT	4.23	2.60	-1.63	2.59
61	Jalen Guyton	WR	LV	2.26	3.56	+1.30	2.59
62	Jordan Akins	TE	JAX	4.68	2.17	-2.51	2.62
63	Boston Scott	RB	PIT	4.12	1.48	-2.63	2.63
64	Zach Pascal	WR	ARI	3.11	0.66	-2.46	2.64
65	Tylan Wallace	WR	CLE	2.99	1.35	-1.64	2.65
66	Mitchell Wilcox	TE	NE	3.88	1.22	-2.66	2.66
67	Giovanni Ricci	TE	DET	3.31	0.60	-2.71	2.71
68	Brock Wright	TE	DET	4.51	3.12	-1.39	2.73
69	Jonathan Ward	RB	BAL	3.29	0.55	-2.74	2.74
70	Tyquan Thornton	WR	KC	5.76	3.02	-2.74	2.74
71	Sean McKeon	TE	IND	2.74	0.00	-2.74	2.74
72	Pierre Strong	RB	GB	4.19	2.75	-1.43	2.77
73	Ihmir Smith-Marsette	WR	ARI	2.73	2.03	-0.70	2.77
74	Ke'Shawn Vaughn	RB	SF	4.06	1.28	-2.78	2.78
75	Mason Kinsey	WR	TEN	3.05	0.27	-2.79	2.79
76	Kadarius Toney	WR	CLE	4.75	4.08	-0.67	2.82
77	Mike Strachan	WR	WAS	3.57	2.75	-0.82	2.82
78	Durham Smythe	TE	BAL	3.89	5.51	+1.62	2.83
79	Brycen Hopkins	TE	LA	4.43	2.56	-1.87	2.83
80	Colby Parkinson	TE	LA	4.44	4.11	-0.32	2.85
81	Byron Pringle	WR	WAS	4.36	2.32	-2.04	2.86
82	Brevin Jordan	TE	HOU	4.55	5.09	+0.54	2.87
83	Brandon Bolden	RB	LV	2.90	2.22	-0.68	2.87
84	Juwann Winfree	WR	IND	2.88	0.00	-2.88	2.88
85	Tommy Tremble	TE	CAR	5.50	4.03	-1.48	2.90
86	Ko Kieft	TE	TB	2.75	0.72	-2.03	2.92
87	Chig Okonkwo	TE	WAS	5.02	6.67	+1.65	2.92
88	Gunner Olszewski	WR	NYG	2.79	0.42	-2.37	2.93
89	Jalen Reagor	WR	LAC	1.62	3.30	+1.68	2.94
90	Josiah Deguara	TE	ARI	3.71	1.61	-2.10	2.98
91	Mike Gesicki	TE	CIN	5.08	4.37	-0.71	3.00
92	River Cracraft	WR	WAS	4.24	4.52	+0.28	3.00
93	Tyler Kroft	TE	MIA	3.02	0.00	-3.02	3.02
94	Josh Oliver	TE	MIN	4.78	4.10	-0.68	3.04
95	Braxton Berrios	WR	HOU	4.35	3.75	-0.61	3.05
96	Skyy Moore	WR	GB	4.47	4.13	-0.34	3.05
97	Austin Trammell	WR	JAX	3.25	0.46	-2.79	3.08
98	Marcedes Lewis	TE	DEN	4.35	2.15	-2.20	3.13
99	KhaDarel Hodge	WR	ATL	4.28	2.66	-1.62	3.13
100	Laquon Treadwell	WR	IND	4.43	1.30	-3.13	3.13
101	KaVontae Turpin	WR	DAL	1.40	3.73	+2.33	3.13
102	AJ Dillon	RB	CAR	10.20	7.84	-2.36	3.17
103	Nathan Peterman	QB	ATL	2.78	-0.40	-3.18	3.18
104	Kyler Murray	QB	MIN	17.23	18.30	+1.07	3.18
105	Gerald Everett	TE	CHI	8.40	7.41	-0.99	3.19
106	Lawrence Cager	TE	WAS	4.36	2.72	-1.64	3.19
107	Quintin Morris	TE	JAX	3.35	5.30	+1.95	3.19
108	Laviska Shenault Jr.	WR	LAC	5.89	2.69	-3.20	3.20
109	Tyler Conklin	TE	DET	8.43	7.24	-1.19	3.21
110	Tanner Hudson	TE	CIN	4.20	6.61	+2.41	3.21
111	Pharaoh Brown	TE	ARI	3.31	3.44	+0.12	3.23
112	Noah Fant	TE	NO	6.57	4.89	-1.68	3.25
113	Raheem Blackshear	RB	NYJ	5.17	1.90	-3.27	3.27
114	James Proche	WR	TEN	3.28	0.00	-3.28	3.28
115	Cedrick Wilson Jr.	WR	MIA	3.37	6.33	+2.96	3.28
116	Antonio Gibson	RB	NE	9.78	7.96	-1.81	3.29
117	Daniel Bellinger	TE	TEN	6.16	3.61	-2.55	3.30
118	Ronnie Rivers	RB	LA	4.79	2.23	-2.56	3.32
119	Johnny Mundt	TE	PHI	4.01	4.02	+0.01	3.32
120	Keaontay Ingram	RB	KC	4.53	2.00	-2.53	3.34
121	John Bates	TE	WAS	5.31	2.27	-3.04	3.34
122	C.J. Beathard	QB	DET	2.66	3.58	+0.92	3.35
123	Keith Kirkwood	WR	BAL	4.52	2.10	-2.42	3.35
124	Jalen Tolbert	WR	MIA	3.00	4.34	+1.34	3.35
125	Andre Baccellia	WR	ARI	3.36	0.00	-3.36	3.36
126	Kevin Harris	RB	NE	4.21	5.33	+1.12	3.37
127	Blake Bell	TE	KC	3.37	1.66	-1.71	3.38
128	Scott Miller	WR	PIT	4.29	3.61	-0.68	3.40
129	Robert Woods	WR	HOU	8.13	6.38	-1.75	3.40
130	Dee Eskridge	WR	MIA	3.54	0.13	-3.41	3.41
131	Kylen Granson	TE	TEN	5.03	4.87	-0.16	3.42
132	D'Onta Foreman	RB	CLE	8.28	7.28	-1.00	3.43
133	Hunter Renfrow	WR	CAR	6.41	3.46	-2.95	3.46
134	Kalif Raymond	WR	CHI	7.35	5.73	-1.62	3.50
135	Dwayne Washington	RB	DEN	3.50	0.00	-3.50	3.50
136	Dyami Brown	WR	WAS	3.90	2.19	-1.71	3.53
137	DeVante Parker	WR	NE	6.83	5.57	-1.26	3.58
138	Foster Moreau	TE	HOU	6.75	3.46	-3.30	3.58
139	Samori Toure	WR	NO	5.80	2.23	-3.58	3.58
140	Melvin Gordon	RB	BAL	8.52	4.92	-3.59	3.59
141	Mo Alie-Cox	TE	IND	5.28	3.51	-1.78	3.59
142	Justin Watson	WR	HOU	3.86	5.93	+2.07	3.60
143	Will Dissly	TE	LAC	5.23	3.09	-2.14	3.61
144	Brandon Powell	WR	MIN	3.51	3.85	+0.34	3.64
145	Kyle Philips	WR	PHI	5.65	4.14	-1.51	3.65
146	Tre' McKitty	TE	CLE	3.65	0.00	-3.65	3.65
147	Russell Wilson	QB	NYG	15.16	17.13	+1.97	3.65
148	Dare Ogunbowale	RB	HOU	4.47	0.81	-3.66	3.66
149	Samaje Perine	RB	CIN	8.84	7.14	-1.70	3.70
150	Adam Trautman	TE	DEN	4.76	3.67	-1.08	3.70
151	Matthew Stafford	QB	LA	14.30	16.21	+1.90	3.70
152	Elijah Moore	WR	PHI	6.91	8.15	+1.24	3.71
153	Ian Thomas	TE	LV	5.04	1.32	-3.72	3.72
154	Michael Thomas	WR	NO	12.58	8.98	-3.60	3.72
155	Dawson Knox	TE	BUF	8.67	5.46	-3.21	3.75
156	Mike Boone	RB	CAR	5.42	1.63	-3.79	3.79
157	Julius Chestnut	RB	TEN	3.81	0.00	-3.81	3.81
158	Salvon Ahmed	RB	IND	3.86	6.13	+2.26	3.83
159	Matt Breida	RB	NYG	5.16	3.13	-2.03	3.84
160	Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	WR	IND	7.73	6.54	-1.20	3.84
161	Darrynton Evans	RB	CHI	6.56	5.00	-1.56	3.85
162	Simi Fehoko	WR	ARI	2.88	3.95	+1.08	3.88
163	Chris Moore	WR	WAS	8.29	4.55	-3.74	3.89
164	Darrell Henderson	RB	LA	8.45	10.88	+2.42	3.91
165	Justice Hill	RB	BAL	5.43	6.83	+1.40	3.92
166	Chase Edmonds	RB	WAS	6.08	3.27	-2.81	3.93
167	Kareem Hunt	RB	KC	8.46	7.90	-0.56	3.93
168	Zach Ertz	TE	WAS	10.55	7.39	-3.17	3.98
169	Trenton Irwin	WR	NYJ	6.70	5.22	-1.49	3.98
170	Ty Johnson	RB	BUF	5.20	4.05	-1.15	3.98
171	Alexander Mattison	RB	MIA	5.92	8.32	+2.40	3.99
172	Alec Pierce	WR	IND	7.59	5.61	-1.97	4.01
173	Cade Otton	TE	TB	6.86	6.97	+0.11	4.06
174	Logan Thomas	TE	WAS	8.19	7.92	-0.27	4.08
175	Jamal Agnew	WR	ATL	3.95	3.66	-0.28	4.08
176	Tyler Boyd	WR	TEN	10.03	8.52	-1.51	4.08
177	Lil'Jordan Humphrey	WR	DEN	4.82	4.72	-0.10	4.09
178	Austin Hooper	TE	ATL	6.95	2.97	-3.97	4.12
179	Parker Hesse	TE	DET	4.13	0.00	-4.13	4.13
180	Robbie Chosen	WR	WAS	3.90	3.77	-0.13	4.14
181	Nelson Agholor	WR	BAL	7.44	5.76	-1.68	4.18
182	Christian Kirk	WR	SF	14.16	12.52	-1.63	4.21
183	Damiere Byrd	WR	HOU	4.22	0.00	-4.22	4.22
184	Tyler Higbee	TE	LA	8.42	7.23	-1.19	4.22
185	Van Jefferson	WR	WAS	7.41	3.18	-4.23	4.23
186	DeeJay Dallas	RB	JAX	4.96	0.72	-4.24	4.24
187	Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	8.33	10.74	+2.41	4.26
188	Equanimeous St. Brown	WR	NO	6.51	2.24	-4.27	4.27
189	Wan'Dale Robinson	WR	TEN	7.05	8.88	+1.83	4.30
190	Treylon Burks	WR	WAS	7.70	4.43	-3.27	4.32
191	Jerry Jeudy	WR	CLE	12.55	8.86	-3.68	4.34
192	Donald Parham	TE	PIT	3.42	5.68	+2.26	4.36
193	Trevor Lawrence	QB	JAX	16.43	16.41	-0.02	4.38
194	Jaylen Warren	RB	PIT	7.35	11.55	+4.20	4.38
195	Jonathan Williams	RB	WAS	4.23	-0.20	-4.43	4.43
196	Phillip Dorsett	WR	LV	4.45	0.00	-4.45	4.45
197	Garrett Wilson	WR	NYJ	13.41	12.54	-0.87	4.45
198	Irv Smith	TE	HOU	7.25	3.72	-3.53	4.50
199	Trent Sherfield	WR	BUF	5.78	2.33	-3.45	4.50
200	Jameson Williams	WR	DET	3.45	6.69	+3.24	4.51