Predicted vs. actual

A weekly backtest of the model. Per-position MAE, calibration by predicted-points decile, residual distribution, and rank fidelity.

Position

All QB RB WR TE

Format

PPR Standard

Season

2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020

QB MAE

6.89

532 weeks · -0.17 bias

RB MAE

5.32

1,170 weeks · +0.15 bias

WR MAE

5.32

1,852 weeks · +0.08 bias

TE MAE

3.96

1,002 weeks · +0.09 bias

Diagnostics — All positions · 4,556 weeks

MAE

5.20

lower is better

RMSE

6.90

penalizes large misses

Calibration · predicted vs. actual by decile

Each point is a decile of predicted points. A well-calibrated model sits on the 45° line — points above mean the model under-predicts; below, it over-predicts.

Residual distribution · actual − predicted

How miss-magnitudes spread out. Mass left of zero = over-predicted weeks; mass right = under-predicted. Centered, narrow = good.

< −15

19 (0%)

−15 to −10

167 (4%)

−10 to −5

746 (16%)

−5 to −2

1,097 (24%)

−2 to 0

679 (15%)

0 to 2

460 (10%)

2 to 5

505

Per-decile error decomposition

Rows are predicted-points deciles (D1 = bottom 10% of predictions, D10 = top 10%). Bias is the model's systematic over- or under-shoot within that bucket.

Decile	n	Pred (μ)	Actual (μ)	Bias	MAE	RMSE
D1	456	2.10	2.12	-0.02	2.27	3.27
D2	456	3.39	4.67	-1.28	3.69	5.36
D3	456	4.38	5.23	-0.85	4.20	5.91
D4	456	5.39	5.03	+0.35	4.72	6.32
D5	456	7.28	6.93	+0.36	5.52	6.81
D6	456	8.72	8.05	+0.68	5.03	6.43
D7	455	10.42	9.62	+0.80	6.60	8.01
D8	455	12.56	12.55	+0.01	6.33	7.86
D9	455	14.33	14.37	-0.04	6.88	8.65
D10	455	17.26	16.55	+0.72	6.83	8.54

Model versions in this slice

xgboost_qb_backfill_2024_20260516_002336QB:1258 · backfilled

xgboost_wr_backfill_2024_20260516_002343WR:3519 · backfilled

xgboost_te_backfill_2024_20260516_002348TE:1853 · backfilled

xgboost_rb_backfill_2024_20260516_002339RB:2244 · backfilled

No.	Player	Pos	Team	Pred ppg	Actual ppg	Δ ppg	MAE↑
1	Ben VanSumeren	RB	BUF	1.05	0.33	-0.72	0.72
2	Jonathan Ward	RB	BAL	1.11	0.43	-0.68	0.77
3	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	RB	KC	5.83	5.00	-0.83	0.83
4	Montrell Washington	WR	KC	0.93	0.00	-0.93	0.93
5	Tucker Fisk	TE	LAC	2.54	1.53	-1.01	1.01
6	Mason Kinsey	WR	TEN	1.26	0.62	-0.64	1.06
7	Charlie Woerner	TE	ATL	1.80	1.05	-0.75	1.08
8	Peyton Hendershot	TE	KC	2.09	2.02	-0.07	1.09
9	Trent Taylor	WR	SF	1.43	1.05	-0.38	1.09
10	Kyle Allen	QB	BUF	1.88	0.76	-1.12	1.12
11	Irvin Charles	WR	NYJ	1.15	0.00	-1.15	1.15
12	Dee Eskridge	WR	MIA	1.22	1.48	+0.26	1.26
13	James Proche	WR	TEN	1.25	0.57	-0.69	1.28
14	Ian Thomas	TE	LV	2.60	1.23	-1.37	1.37
15	Mike Boone	RB	CAR	2.58	1.18	-1.40	1.45
16	Deuce Vaughn	RB	DEN	3.83	2.36	-1.47	1.47
17	Jakob Johnson	RB	HOU	1.49	0.00	-1.49	1.49
18	Travis Homer	RB	PIT	1.82	0.80	-1.02	1.58
19	DeAndre Carter	WR	CLE	1.23	1.22	-0.01	1.60
20	Ronnie Bell	WR	NO	2.69	1.05	-1.64	1.64
21	Julian Hill	TE	NE	2.35	1.57	-0.78	1.66
22	Luke Farrell	TE	SF	2.94	1.56	-1.38	1.70
23	Kyle Trask	QB	ATL	1.64	-0.07	-1.71	1.71
24	Charlie Jones	WR	CIN	1.40	1.07	-0.33	1.72
25	Ihmir Smith-Marsette	WR	ARI	1.51	0.40	-1.11	1.72
26	Adam Prentice	RB	DEN	1.73	0.00	-1.73	1.73
27	Eric Gray	RB	NYG	2.57	1.38	-1.19	1.75
28	Hunter Luepke	RB	DAL	2.54	1.92	-0.62	1.77
29	Pharaoh Brown	TE	ARI	2.79	1.21	-1.58	1.82
30	Xavier Hutchinson	WR	HOU	3.09	1.69	-1.40	1.83
31	Harrison Bryant	TE	SEA	3.18	2.93	-0.25	1.85
32	Ben Skowronek	WR	PIT	2.50	1.32	-1.17	1.85
33	Lucas Krull	TE	DEN	4.54	3.42	-1.12	1.87
34	Ross Dwelley	TE	CAR	2.28	0.38	-1.91	1.91
35	Elijah Higgins	TE	ARI	2.90	3.28	+0.38	1.93
36	Rod Williams	TE	PIT	1.96	0.00	-1.96	1.96
37	Cody Thompson	WR	TB	1.98	0.00	-1.98	1.98
38	David Bell	WR	CLE	3.69	5.70	+2.01	2.01
39	Rakim Jarrett	WR	PIT	2.99	2.67	-0.32	2.02
40	Josiah Deguara	TE	ARI	2.67	0.63	-2.04	2.04
41	Steven Sims	WR	ARI	2.07	0.00	-2.07	2.07
42	Chris Manhertz	TE	NYG	2.19	1.50	-0.69	2.08
43	Johnny Mundt	TE	PHI	3.36	3.23	-0.13	2.11
44	Kenny Yeboah	TE	DET	1.76	2.24	+0.48	2.12
45	Darnell Washington	TE	PIT	3.09	3.46	+0.37	2.13
46	Trent Sherfield	WR	BUF	3.22	1.86	-1.36	2.17
47	Tim Boyle	QB	NYG	5.83	4.65	-1.19	2.17
48	Ben Sims	TE	MIA	2.73	2.05	-0.68	2.19
49	Laviska Shenault Jr.	WR	LAC	3.11	1.47	-1.64	2.22
50	Kendre Miller	RB	NO	6.50	4.85	-1.65	2.29
51	MyCole Pruitt	TE	PIT	3.29	2.29	-1.00	2.29
52	Jack Stoll	TE	CLE	2.91	0.60	-2.31	2.31
53	Jeremy Ruckert	TE	NYJ	4.34	2.04	-2.31	2.32
54	DeeJay Dallas	RB	JAX	2.33	1.33	-1.00	2.32
55	Derius Davis	WR	LAC	2.63	2.67	+0.04	2.33
56	Geoff Swaim	TE	CLE	2.90	0.57	-2.33	2.33
57	Tyquan Thornton	WR	KC	4.38	2.17	-2.21	2.33
58	Deven Thompkins	WR	ATL	3.26	1.34	-1.92	2.34
59	Britain Covey	WR	PHI	1.25	2.08	+0.83	2.36
60	Nate Adkins	TE	DEN	2.46	2.90	+0.44	2.37
61	Devin Duvernay	WR	ARI	2.77	1.34	-1.43	2.40
62	Jalen Reagor	WR	LAC	4.31	2.22	-2.09	2.44
63	Robbie Chosen	WR	WAS	3.94	1.50	-2.44	2.44
64	Dyami Brown	WR	WAS	3.28	4.49	+1.21	2.44
65	Drew Sample	TE	CIN	3.68	3.32	-0.36	2.50
66	Chris Brooks	RB	GB	4.86	4.01	-0.85	2.50
67	Deonte Harty	WR	BAL	2.51	0.00	-2.51	2.51
68	Marcedes Lewis	TE	DEN	2.76	0.24	-2.52	2.52
69	John Bates	TE	WAS	3.62	1.11	-2.51	2.53
70	Greg Dulcich	TE	MIA	4.34	1.95	-2.39	2.57
71	Charlie Kolar	TE	LAC	2.51	2.83	+0.32	2.60
72	Jalen Brooks	WR	ARI	4.97	2.98	-2.00	2.64
73	Jordan Mims	RB	TEN	1.18	3.26	+2.09	2.64
74	Erik Ezukanma	WR	JAX	2.64	0.00	-2.64	2.64
75	Dawson Knox	TE	BUF	5.52	4.22	-1.30	2.70
76	Eric Saubert	TE	SEA	2.59	2.30	-0.29	2.72
77	Ko Kieft	TE	TB	2.73	0.00	-2.73	2.73
78	D'Ernest Johnson	RB	NE	4.58	2.99	-1.59	2.75
79	Stone Smartt	TE	PHI	3.07	3.87	+0.80	2.75
80	Simi Fehoko	WR	ARI	0.88	2.77	+1.89	2.77
81	Quintin Morris	TE	JAX	3.04	1.46	-1.58	2.77
82	Dalvin Cook	RB	DAL	4.78	2.00	-2.78	2.78
83	Tylan Wallace	WR	CLE	1.26	3.02	+1.76	2.78
84	Van Jefferson	WR	WAS	4.40	4.12	-0.27	2.79
85	Brock Wright	TE	DET	3.84	3.18	-0.65	2.79
86	Davis Mills	QB	HOU	4.13	2.40	-1.74	2.80
87	Justyn Ross	WR	KC	2.88	0.00	-2.88	2.88
88	Jake Bobo	WR	SEA	4.79	2.48	-2.31	2.88
89	Colby Parkinson	TE	LA	4.21	4.09	-0.12	2.90
90	Kene Nwangwu	RB	NYJ	2.13	3.00	+0.88	2.92
91	Andrew Ogletree	TE	IND	4.40	2.16	-2.24	2.94
92	Zamir White	RB	LV	6.22	3.66	-2.56	2.95
93	Dalton Kincaid	TE	BUF	8.77	7.75	-1.01	2.96
94	Mo Alie-Cox	TE	IND	3.62	2.73	-0.89	3.01
95	Grant Calcaterra	TE	PHI	2.45	3.99	+1.54	3.04
96	Brevin Jordan	TE	HOU	4.39	1.35	-3.04	3.04
97	Trayveon Williams	RB	CLE	3.05	0.00	-3.05	3.05
98	Ke'Shawn Vaughn	RB	SF	3.45	0.40	-3.05	3.05
99	Mike White	QB	CAR	4.20	1.12	-3.08	3.08
100	Malik Heath	WR	ATL	3.27	6.34	+3.07	3.09
101	Tommy Tremble	TE	CAR	4.37	5.64	+1.27	3.10
102	Pierre Strong	RB	GB	4.44	2.71	-1.73	3.15
103	River Cracraft	WR	WAS	4.61	2.72	-1.89	3.15
104	Scott Miller	WR	PIT	3.50	1.98	-1.52	3.16
105	Dare Ogunbowale	RB	HOU	3.24	3.50	+0.26	3.17
106	Justin Watson	WR	HOU	5.79	4.19	-1.60	3.17
107	Zach Pascal	WR	ARI	3.20	0.00	-3.20	3.20
108	Hayden Hurst	TE	LAC	5.39	2.19	-3.20	3.21
109	Davis Allen	TE	LA	3.21	1.41	-1.79	3.27
110	Lil'Jordan Humphrey	WR	DEN	4.85	4.59	-0.26	3.28
111	Juwan Johnson	TE	NO	8.58	8.19	-0.39	3.28
112	Brandin Cooks	WR	BUF	8.56	6.96	-1.60	3.30
113	Tim Jones	WR	JAX	4.23	0.89	-3.34	3.34
114	Josh Whyle	TE	GB	3.88	4.05	+0.17	3.34
115	David Moore	WR	CAR	3.64	5.67	+2.03	3.36
116	DJ Turner	WR	LV	1.11	3.93	+2.82	3.38
117	Antonio Gibson	RB	NE	8.06	6.08	-1.98	3.40
118	Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	8.23	6.95	-1.27	3.43
119	Sterling Shepard	WR	TB	3.17	6.18	+3.00	3.44
120	Mecole Hardman	WR	BUF	4.27	2.77	-1.51	3.45
121	Noah Fant	TE	NO	4.57	7.43	+2.86	3.46
122	Nelson Agholor	WR	BAL	5.73	3.78	-1.95	3.48
123	John Metchie III	WR	CAR	3.54	5.54	+2.00	3.49
124	Isaiah Hodgins	WR	NYG	5.10	1.60	-3.50	3.50
125	Josh Palmer	WR	BUF	9.14	7.16	-1.98	3.50
126	Raheem Blackshear	RB	NYJ	3.90	0.50	-3.40	3.51
127	Samaje Perine	RB	CIN	7.62	4.91	-2.71	3.53
128	Evan Engram	TE	DEN	11.55	9.94	-1.60	3.53
129	C.J. Uzomah	TE	PHI	3.54	0.00	-3.54	3.54
130	Jacoby Brissett	QB	ARI	9.54	6.46	-3.08	3.55
131	Ty Johnson	RB	BUF	4.55	5.39	+0.84	3.57
132	Bailey Zappe	QB	NYJ	10.57	7.00	-3.57	3.57
133	Daniel Bellinger	TE	TEN	4.62	2.21	-2.41	3.57
134	Wan'Dale Robinson	WR	TEN	8.78	10.75	+1.97	3.59
135	Jaleel McLaughlin	RB	DEN	8.96	6.08	-2.89	3.61
136	Cam Akers	RB	SEA	7.33	6.22	-1.11	3.63
137	Will Mallory	TE	IND	4.61	0.99	-3.63	3.63
138	Tutu Atwell	WR	MIA	7.33	6.59	-0.74	3.64
139	KaVontae Turpin	WR	DAL	3.67	6.13	+2.46	3.65
140	Tyrod Taylor	QB	GB	11.15	10.03	-1.12	3.69
141	Michael Mayer	TE	LV	5.57	3.33	-2.24	3.73
142	Mack Hollins	WR	NE	4.90	5.81	+0.91	3.74
143	Kylen Granson	TE	TEN	5.33	2.01	-3.32	3.75
144	Roschon Johnson	RB	CHI	7.47	5.95	-1.52	3.75
145	Ronnie Rivers	RB	LA	4.15	3.05	-1.10	3.77
146	KhaDarel Hodge	WR	ATL	4.34	2.61	-1.73	3.77
147	DeMario Douglas	WR	NE	8.36	9.23	+0.87	3.80
148	Austin Hooper	TE	ATL	3.85	6.20	+2.35	3.80
149	Michael Wilson	WR	ARI	8.38	7.78	-0.60	3.81
150	Greg Dortch	WR	DET	5.77	5.31	-0.46	3.81
151	Jeremy McNichols	RB	WAS	1.14	4.41	+3.27	3.82
152	Payne Durham	TE	TB	2.83	4.31	+1.48	3.88
153	Trey Sermon	RB	PIT	5.57	3.59	-1.98	3.93
154	Trey Palmer	WR	NO	5.53	2.35	-3.18	3.93
155	Noah Brown	WR	WAS	9.65	7.85	-1.80	3.97
156	Luke Schoonmaker	TE	DAL	2.98	4.76	+1.78	3.98
157	Brandon Powell	WR	MIN	4.88	0.88	-4.00	4.00
158	Craig Reynolds	RB	NE	5.99	2.61	-3.38	4.01
159	Najee Harris	RB	LAC	12.00	12.04	+0.04	4.04
160	Jordan Akins	TE	JAX	2.38	5.69	+3.31	4.06
161	Marquise Brown	WR	PHI	13.12	9.05	-4.07	4.07
162	Josh Oliver	TE	MIN	3.48	5.48	+2.01	4.07
163	Alexander Mattison	RB	MIA	10.30	9.22	-1.08	4.07
164	Patrick Taylor	RB	SF	5.07	4.26	-0.81	4.11
165	Tyler Allgeier	RB	ARI	8.46	6.25	-2.21	4.15
166	Patrick Mahomes	QB	KC	17.92	17.69	-0.23	4.16
167	Terrace Marshall Jr.	WR	MIA	5.58	1.42	-4.16	4.16
168	Tyler Higbee	TE	LA	10.00	8.87	-1.14	4.17
169	David Montgomery	RB	HOU	13.63	15.84	+2.21	4.18
170	Kenneth Gainwell	RB	TB	7.63	3.68	-3.95	4.18
171	Emanuel Wilson	RB	SEA	4.47	5.65	+1.18	4.23
172	Stephen Sullivan	TE	CAR	4.23	0.00	-4.23	4.23
173	Sean Tucker	RB	TB	4.18	4.04	-0.14	4.27
174	Jamaal Williams	RB	NO	6.34	2.65	-3.69	4.35
175	Pat Freiermuth	TE	PIT	7.65	10.02	+2.37	4.36
176	Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	9.54	10.36	+0.82	4.38
177	Brenton Strange	TE	JAX	3.28	6.51	+3.22	4.40
178	Cordarrelle Patterson	RB	PIT	6.43	3.14	-3.29	4.41
179	Austin Trammell	WR	JAX	1.58	6.00	+4.42	4.42
180	Dorian Thompson-Robinson	QB	CLE	6.86	2.63	-4.22	4.43
181	Jamison Crowder	WR	WAS	2.72	5.64	+2.92	4.44
182	Aaron Jones	RB	MIN	13.01	14.34	+1.33	4.46
183	Romeo Doubs	WR	NE	8.59	10.16	+1.57	4.46
184	Derek Carr	QB	NO	14.39	15.09	+0.70	4.46
185	Tyler Boyd	WR	TEN	9.25	4.77	-4.48	4.50
186	Tre Tucker	WR	LV	3.99	7.61	+3.62	4.52
187	Parris Campbell	WR	DAL	4.73	3.75	-0.98	4.54
188	Gary Brightwell	RB	CIN	4.54	0.00	-4.54	4.54
189	Foster Moreau	TE	HOU	3.75	6.46	+2.70	4.55
190	Tyler Scott	WR	LA	4.93	0.38	-4.55	4.55
191	Xavier Gipson	WR	NYG	5.29	0.96	-4.33	4.56
192	Cedrick Wilson Jr.	WR	MIA	6.65	3.93	-2.72	4.58
193	Christian Watson	WR	GB	8.84	7.52	-1.32	4.60
194	Jeff Wilson	RB	MIA	6.12	1.51	-4.61	4.61
195	Chig Okonkwo	TE	WAS	8.51	7.10	-1.41	4.62
196	Jake Ferguson	TE	DAL	9.83	7.46	-2.38	4.62
197	Joe Flacco	QB	CIN	14.03	14.69	+0.66	4.63
198	Brandon Johnson	WR	PIT	6.54	1.90	-4.64	4.64
199	Braxton Berrios	WR	HOU	4.64	0.00	-4.64	4.64
200	Noah Gray	TE	KC	4.77	7.08	+2.31	4.66