Wednesday, July 15, 2026Vol. I · No. 1 · Predictions Edition

2025 / PPR scoring

Predicted vs. actual

A weekly backtest of the model. Per-position MAE, calibration by predicted-points decile, residual distribution, and rank fidelity.

Position

All QB RB WR TE

Format

PPR Standard

Season

2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020

QB MAE

7.09

662 weeks · -0.01 bias

RB MAE

5.01

1,545 weeks · +0.89 bias

WR MAE

4.60

2,484 weeks · +0.72 bias

TE MAE

3.74

1,269 weeks · +0.28 bias

Diagnostics — All positions · 5,960 weeks

MAE

4.80

lower is better

RMSE

6.42

penalizes large misses

Calibration · predicted vs. actual by decile

Each point is a decile of predicted points. A well-calibrated model sits on the 45° line — points above mean the model under-predicts; below, it over-predicts.

Residual distribution · actual − predicted

How miss-magnitudes spread out. Mass left of zero = over-predicted weeks; mass right = under-predicted. Centered, narrow = good.

< −15

22 (0%)

−15 to −10

226 (4%)

−10 to −5

944 (16%)

−5 to −2

1,571 (26%)

−2 to 0

1,074 (18%)

0 to 2

616 (10%)

2 to 5

552

Per-decile error decomposition

Rows are predicted-points deciles (D1 = bottom 10% of predictions, D10 = top 10%). Bias is the model's systematic over- or under-shoot within that bucket.

Decile	n	Pred (μ)	Actual (μ)	Bias	MAE	RMSE
D1	596	1.60	1.45	+0.15	1.92	2.94
D2	596	2.91	2.33	+0.57	2.67	3.58
D3	596	3.99	3.68	+0.31	3.43	4.53
D4	596	5.13	4.84	+0.28	4.07	5.32
D5	596	6.48	5.70	+0.78	4.63	5.86
D6	596	7.85	7.06	+0.79	5.19	6.52
D7	596	9.42	8.98	+0.44	5.56	6.94
D8	596	12.06	10.96	+1.11	6.47	7.89
D9	596	14.17	13.43	+0.73	7.10	8.69
D10	596	17.19	16.45	+0.74	6.97	8.88

Model versions in this slice

xgboost_rb_20260516_031153RB:2216

xgboost_wr_20260516_025357WR:34

random_forest_wr_20260515_011335WR:663

random_forest_te_20260515_011435TE:340

xgboost_qb_20260516_031152QB:1209

random_forest_qb_20260515_112150QB:85

random_forest_qb_20260515_015004QB:306

random_forest_qb_20260515_010958QB:272

random_forest_rb_20260515_112354RB:153

xgboost_rb_20260516_025356RB:22

random_forest_te_20260515_015130TE:510

random_forest_rb_20260515_011130RB:204

random_forest_te_20260515_112825TE:68

xgboost_te_20260516_025358TE:15

random_forest_wr_20260515_015112WR:986

random_forest_rb_20260515_015032RB:646

random_forest_wr_20260515_112700WR:204

xgboost_te_20260516_031155TE:1993

xgboost_wr_20260516_031154WR:3734

xgboost_qb_20260516_025354QB:15

No.	Player	Pos	Team	Pred ppg	Actual ppg	Δ ppg	MAE↑
1	Will Mallory	TE	IND	2.37	2.60	+0.23	0.23
2	Nikola Kalinic	TE	CHI	0.56	0.00	-0.56	0.56
3	Jordan Watkins	WR	SF	2.31	2.30	-0.01	0.60
4	Myles Price	WR	MIN	0.67	0.00	-0.67	0.67
5	Justin Shorter	TE	LV	0.72	0.00	-0.72	0.72
6	Zaire Mitchell-Paden	TE	NO	1.44	1.23	-0.20	0.78
7	Coleman Owen	WR	IND	0.78	0.00	-0.78	0.78
8	Princeton Fant	TE	DAL	0.79	0.00	-0.79	0.79
9	Giovanni Ricci	TE	DET	0.81	0.00	-0.81	0.81
10	Cameron Latu	TE	PHI	0.82	0.00	-0.82	0.82
11	Dominic Lovett	WR	DET	0.82	0.00	-0.82	0.82
12	Theo Wease Jr.	WR	MIA	7.84	8.63	+0.79	0.83
13	Bryce Oliver	WR	TEN	1.75	0.90	-0.85	0.85
14	Ke'Shawn Williams	WR	CIN	0.99	0.25	-0.74	0.88
15	Steven Sims	WR	ARI	0.88	0.00	-0.88	0.88
16	Tai Felton	WR	MIN	0.80	0.46	-0.34	0.89
17	Myles Gaskin	RB	SEA	1.49	0.60	-0.89	0.89
18	Jalen Cropper	WR	DAL	0.89	0.00	-0.89	0.89
19	Owen Wright	RB	TB	1.19	0.30	-0.89	0.93
20	LeQuint Allen Jr.	RB	JAX	2.16	1.55	-0.61	0.95
21	Ben Yurosek	TE	MIN	1.06	0.57	-0.50	0.96
22	Dalen Cambre	WR	NYG	1.00	0.00	-1.00	1.00
23	Tip Reiman	TE	ARI	2.32	1.60	-0.72	1.04
24	Anthony Gould	WR	IND	1.29	0.24	-1.06	1.06
25	Trevor Etienne	RB	CAR	1.09	0.81	-0.28	1.06
26	Ross Dwelley	TE	CAR	1.74	0.68	-1.06	1.06
27	LaJohntay Wester	WR	BAL	1.13	0.00	-1.13	1.13
28	Avery Williams	RB	NYJ	1.15	0.00	-1.15	1.15
29	Jakob Johnson	RB	HOU	1.17	0.00	-1.17	1.17
30	Jamari Thrash	WR	CLE	3.10	2.59	-0.51	1.19
31	Adam Prentice	RB	DEN	1.31	1.21	-0.10	1.20
32	Nikko Remigio	WR	KC	1.24	0.30	-0.94	1.22
33	Ben Sims	TE	MIA	3.22	2.00	-1.22	1.22
34	Cam Grandy	TE	CIN	2.61	1.35	-1.26	1.26
35	Raheim Sanders	RB	CLE	5.78	5.08	-0.70	1.26
36	James Mitchell	TE	CAR	2.61	2.90	+0.29	1.29
37	Colson Yankoff	TE	WAS	1.50	0.38	-1.12	1.29
38	Tanner Conner	TE	NYG	2.93	2.26	-0.67	1.30
39	Jacob Saylors	RB	DET	1.43	0.10	-1.33	1.33
40	Tyson Bagent	QB	CHI	2.62	1.29	-1.33	1.33
41	Kedon Slovis	QB	ARI	1.33	-0.04	-1.37	1.37
42	Beaux Collins	WR	NYG	2.43	1.13	-1.30	1.38
43	Jimmy Horn Jr.	WR	CAR	3.23	2.87	-0.36	1.38
44	Josh Williams	RB	TB	1.94	0.55	-1.39	1.39
45	Robert Tonyan	TE	KC	1.95	0.55	-1.40	1.40
46	Tim Jones	WR	JAX	2.70	1.25	-1.45	1.45
47	Brenden Bates	TE	CLE	2.15	1.76	-0.39	1.46
48	Brayden Willis	TE	SF	1.49	0.00	-1.49	1.49
49	Dareke Young	WR	LV	1.28	0.85	-0.43	1.50
50	Ko Kieft	TE	TB	1.51	0.00	-1.51	1.51
51	Arian Smith	WR	NYJ	2.24	1.04	-1.20	1.52
52	Charlie Jones	WR	CIN	1.27	0.43	-0.84	1.52
53	Malachi Corley	WR	CLE	2.67	2.63	-0.03	1.53
54	Kalel Mullings	RB	TEN	1.72	0.17	-1.54	1.54
55	British Brooks	RB	HOU	1.13	0.97	-0.16	1.56
56	Casey Washington	WR	ATL	2.58	3.08	+0.50	1.57
57	Trent Sherfield	WR	BUF	2.85	1.27	-1.58	1.57
58	Jared Wiley	TE	KC	2.31	0.70	-1.61	1.60
59	Austin Trammell	WR	JAX	0.91	1.27	+0.35	1.61
60	James Proche	WR	TEN	1.61	2.08	+0.47	1.61
61	Dee Eskridge	WR	MIA	1.45	0.93	-0.52	1.62
62	Mason Kinsey	WR	TEN	1.38	1.13	-0.25	1.62
63	Dylan Laube	RB	LV	1.74	0.34	-1.40	1.67
64	DeeJay Dallas	RB	JAX	2.05	0.42	-1.63	1.68
65	Feleipe Franks	TE	CAR	1.73	0.04	-1.69	1.69
66	Robbie Ouzts	RB	SEA	1.69	0.00	-1.69	1.69
67	Gage Larvadain	WR	CLE	1.53	1.11	-0.42	1.70
68	DJ Giddens	RB	IND	3.34	1.92	-1.42	1.71
69	Marcedes Lewis	TE	DEN	1.72	0.00	-1.72	1.72
70	Jeremy Ruckert	TE	NYJ	3.15	3.35	+0.20	1.72
71	John Bates	TE	WAS	2.85	2.73	-0.12	1.73
72	Carter Runyon	TE	LV	2.18	0.43	-1.75	1.75
73	Durham Smythe	TE	BAL	2.68	0.93	-1.75	1.75
74	Charlie Woerner	TE	ATL	2.67	1.83	-0.85	1.76
75	Tucker Fisk	TE	LAC	2.75	0.97	-1.78	1.78
76	Andre Baccellia	WR	ARI	2.48	0.70	-1.78	1.78
77	Teagan Quitoriano	TE	ARI	1.78	0.00	-1.78	1.78
78	Corey Kiner	RB	ARI	2.85	2.33	-0.52	1.79
79	Kyler Murray	QB	MIN	15.24	15.56	+0.31	1.80
80	Cade Stover	TE	HOU	3.42	3.32	-0.11	1.81
81	Scott Miller	WR	PIT	3.43	3.04	-0.39	1.81
82	Eric Saubert	TE	SEA	2.79	1.01	-1.77	1.81
83	Julian Hill	TE	NE	3.40	2.82	-0.58	1.82
84	Travis Homer	RB	PIT	1.79	-0.03	-1.82	1.82
85	Evan Hull	RB	NO	2.89	1.07	-1.82	1.82
86	Darius Cooper	WR	PHI	2.32	3.03	+0.71	1.83
87	Clayton Tune	QB	GB	2.60	0.99	-1.61	1.83
88	Ben Sinnott	TE	WAS	2.84	3.16	+0.32	1.84
89	David Martin-Robinson	TE	TEN	2.09	1.18	-0.91	1.89
90	Keleki Latu	TE	BUF	1.39	2.50	+1.11	1.91
91	Will Shipley	RB	PHI	2.89	1.39	-1.50	1.92
92	Tay Martin	WR	WAS	0.23	2.15	+1.92	1.92
93	Chris Manhertz	TE	NYG	2.38	0.42	-1.95	1.96
94	Sione Vaki	RB	DET	2.04	0.05	-1.99	1.99
95	Quintin Morris	TE	JAX	2.34	1.59	-0.75	2.00
96	Ian Thomas	TE	LV	3.58	2.71	-0.87	2.03
97	Pharaoh Brown	TE	ARI	2.45	0.42	-2.03	2.03
98	Savion Williams	WR	GB	2.64	2.13	-0.52	2.03
99	Skyy Moore	WR	GB	2.80	0.87	-1.93	2.06
100	Jackson Hawes	TE	BUF	3.95	4.05	+0.11	2.06
101	Jayden Reed	WR	GB	8.36	9.70	+1.34	2.09
102	Xavier Gipson	WR	NYG	2.55	0.43	-2.12	2.12
103	Kene Nwangwu	RB	NYJ	2.35	1.09	-1.26	2.15
104	Tom Kennedy	WR	DET	1.33	1.27	-0.07	2.17
105	Brycen Tremayne	WR	CAR	2.17	2.00	-0.17	2.22
106	Adam Trautman	TE	DEN	3.65	3.50	-0.15	2.23
107	Trayveon Williams	RB	CLE	1.12	2.85	+1.73	2.24
108	Luke Musgrave	TE	GB	2.45	3.78	+1.34	2.24
109	Lucas Krull	TE	DEN	4.00	1.75	-2.25	2.25
110	Josh Reynolds	WR	NYJ	4.19	4.62	+0.43	2.25
111	E.J. Jenkins	TE	PHI	2.27	0.00	-2.27	2.27
112	Jack Westover	TE	NE	2.52	0.25	-2.27	2.27
113	Mitchell Evans	TE	CAR	3.29	3.44	+0.16	2.29
114	John FitzPatrick	TE	GB	3.29	2.29	-1.00	2.30
115	Josiah Deguara	TE	ARI	1.58	1.59	+0.00	2.31
116	Deven Thompkins	WR	ATL	2.59	0.89	-1.71	2.31
117	Eric Gray	RB	NYG	2.34	0.00	-2.34	2.34
118	Charlie Kolar	TE	LAC	3.03	2.78	-0.24	2.34
119	Ben Skowronek	WR	PIT	2.53	1.06	-1.47	2.35
120	Tanner Hudson	TE	CIN	4.60	4.78	+0.18	2.35
121	Jack Stoll	TE	CLE	2.49	1.84	-0.64	2.36
122	Ashton Dulin	WR	IND	2.65	1.67	-0.98	2.37
123	Anthony Firkser	TE	DET	3.60	2.66	-0.94	2.37
124	Jake Bobo	WR	SEA	3.17	0.80	-2.37	2.37
125	Dont'e Thornton Jr.	WR	LV	3.87	2.14	-1.73	2.37
126	Tyler Badie	RB	DEN	4.56	2.21	-2.35	2.38
127	Darnell Washington	TE	PIT	4.29	5.65	+1.36	2.38
128	Nick Kallerup	TE	SEA	2.45	0.00	-2.45	2.45
129	Trey Lance	QB	LAC	3.79	3.38	-0.40	2.45
130	Jaylin Lane	WR	WAS	4.31	3.41	-0.90	2.48
131	Tre Harris	WR	LAC	4.26	4.34	+0.08	2.50
132	Samori Toure	WR	NO	3.81	1.30	-2.51	2.51
133	Greg Dulcich	TE	MIA	6.24	6.98	+0.74	2.51
134	Miles Sanders	RB	DAL	5.53	6.67	+1.15	2.52
135	Gary Brightwell	RB	CIN	2.52	0.00	-2.52	2.52
136	Jalin Hyatt	WR	NYG	3.43	1.42	-2.01	2.58
137	Austin Hooper	TE	ATL	5.93	4.56	-1.37	2.59
138	Drew Sample	TE	CIN	3.90	2.66	-1.24	2.59
139	Derius Davis	WR	LAC	2.92	0.32	-2.60	2.60
140	Luke Farrell	TE	SF	2.82	2.27	-0.55	2.61
141	Michael Bandy	WR	DEN	2.08	3.75	+1.67	2.62
142	Khalil Herbert	RB	NYJ	2.88	1.32	-1.56	2.63
143	Alex Bachman	WR	LV	2.92	0.29	-2.63	2.63
144	Brevyn Spann-Ford	TE	DAL	3.33	1.50	-1.83	2.63
145	Johnny Mundt	TE	PHI	4.25	1.68	-2.58	2.63
146	Jordan Whittington	WR	LA	4.84	2.42	-2.42	2.65
147	Isaiah Bond	WR	CLE	3.71	3.65	-0.07	2.65
148	Xavier Weaver	WR	ARI	4.62	1.96	-2.66	2.66
149	Elijah Higgins	TE	ARI	2.95	3.42	+0.47	2.67
150	Ronnie Rivers	RB	LA	3.07	0.77	-2.31	2.67
151	Ty Chandler	RB	NO	4.10	2.93	-1.16	2.67
152	Jack Bech	WR	LV	3.06	3.03	-0.03	2.67
153	Hunter Luepke	RB	DAL	3.74	2.64	-1.10	2.68
154	Kaleb Johnson	RB	PIT	3.56	0.88	-2.68	2.68
155	Xavier Smith	WR	LA	1.27	3.02	+1.75	2.70
156	Davis Allen	TE	LA	2.95	4.19	+1.24	2.71
157	Hunter Long	TE	JAX	2.66	4.64	+1.98	2.71
158	Konata Mumpfield	WR	LA	3.23	2.52	-0.71	2.75
159	Rasheen Ali	RB	BAL	3.31	1.61	-1.69	2.76
160	Tahj Washington	WR	MIA	3.62	2.35	-1.27	2.76
161	Van Jefferson	WR	WAS	5.33	5.00	-0.33	2.76
162	KeAndre Lambert-Smith	WR	LAC	2.70	1.61	-1.09	2.77
163	Malik Washington	WR	MIA	5.82	6.86	+1.04	2.77
164	Jeremy McNichols	RB	WAS	4.88	4.54	-0.33	2.77
165	Mecole Hardman	WR	BUF	2.77	0.00	-2.77	2.77
166	Treylon Burks	WR	WAS	4.47	3.63	-0.85	2.77
167	Jonathan Mingo	WR	DAL	3.46	0.70	-2.76	2.80
168	Sterling Shepard	WR	TB	6.44	6.31	-0.13	2.82
169	Andrew Ogletree	TE	IND	2.90	1.15	-1.75	2.82
170	Dylan Drummond	WR	ATL	2.96	1.87	-1.09	2.86
171	Josh Whyle	TE	GB	4.41	2.43	-1.98	2.87
172	Shedrick Jackson	WR	LV	2.43	5.30	+2.87	2.87
173	Malik Heath	WR	ATL	4.60	2.09	-2.52	2.89
174	Luke Schoonmaker	TE	DAL	4.84	1.94	-2.90	2.90
175	Devin Duvernay	WR	ARI	3.14	0.27	-2.87	2.90
176	George Holani	RB	SEA	2.75	2.08	-0.67	2.92
177	KhaDarel Hodge	WR	ATL	2.90	0.76	-2.13	2.96
178	Jarrett Stidham	QB	DEN	2.90	-0.10	-3.00	3.00
179	Blake Whiteheart	TE	CLE	3.27	0.27	-3.00	3.00
180	Noah Gray	TE	KC	5.73	2.77	-2.96	3.01
181	Keaton Mitchell	RB	LAC	5.67	4.26	-1.41	3.02
182	Mo Alie-Cox	TE	IND	4.38	2.79	-1.59	3.03
183	Tyreek Hill	WR	MIA	14.14	13.38	-0.77	3.04
184	Julius Chestnut	RB	TEN	3.29	0.25	-3.04	3.04
185	Ja'Tavion Sanders	TE	CAR	4.31	4.50	+0.19	3.05
186	Elijah Arroyo	TE	SEA	4.80	2.84	-1.96	3.10
187	Tylan Wallace	WR	CLE	3.06	1.32	-1.74	3.10
188	Britain Covey	WR	PHI	3.69	0.67	-3.02	3.10
189	Kameron Johnson	WR	TB	2.53	1.04	-1.48	3.11
190	Hassan Haskins	RB	LAC	4.03	0.91	-3.12	3.12
191	Braelon Allen	RB	NYJ	6.16	3.83	-2.33	3.12
192	Kylen Granson	TE	TEN	3.50	0.92	-2.58	3.12
193	Dameon Pierce	RB	PHI	3.85	0.72	-3.13	3.13
194	Justin Watson	WR	HOU	5.13	2.00	-3.13	3.13
195	Chris Brooks	RB	GB	4.83	1.92	-2.91	3.14
196	River Cracraft	WR	WAS	3.18	0.00	-3.18	3.18
197	David Sills	WR	TB	3.14	4.46	+1.32	3.21
198	Jahan Dotson	WR	ATL	4.59	3.35	-1.24	3.26
199	Nate Adkins	TE	DEN	4.06	2.80	-1.26	3.27
200	Tahj Brooks	RB	CIN	3.82	0.53	-3.29	3.29