A weekly backtest of the model. Mean absolute error per position, plus the players where we were most and least correct.
| No. | Player | Pos | Team | Pred ppg | Actual ppg | Δ ppg | MAE↑ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikola Kalinic | TE | CHI | 0.56 | 0.00 | -0.56 | 0.56 |
| 2 | Will Mallory |
| IND |
| 3.18 |
| 2.60 |
| -0.58 |
| 0.58 |
| 3 | Jordan Watkins | WR | SF | 2.31 | 2.30 | -0.01 | 0.60 |
| 4 | Myles Price | WR | MIN | 0.67 | 0.00 | -0.67 | 0.67 |
| 5 | Justin Shorter | TE | LV | 0.72 | 0.00 | -0.72 | 0.72 |
| 6 | Nikko Remigio | WR | KC | 0.74 | 0.30 | -0.44 | 0.74 |
| 7 | Zaire Mitchell-Paden | TE | NO | 1.44 | 1.23 | -0.20 | 0.78 |
| 8 | Coleman Owen | WR | IND | 0.78 | 0.00 | -0.78 | 0.78 |
| 9 | Princeton Fant | TE | DAL | 0.79 | 0.00 | -0.79 | 0.79 |
| 10 | Giovanni Ricci | TE | DET | 0.81 | 0.00 | -0.81 | 0.81 |
| 11 | Cameron Latu | TE | PHI | 0.82 | 0.00 | -0.82 | 0.82 |
| 12 | Dominic Lovett | WR | DET | 0.82 | 0.00 | -0.82 | 0.82 |
| 13 | Theo Wease Jr. | WR | MIA | 7.84 | 8.63 | +0.79 | 0.83 |
| 14 | Bryce Oliver | WR | TEN | 1.73 | 0.90 | -0.83 | 0.88 |
| 15 | Ke'Shawn Williams | WR | CIN | 0.99 | 0.25 | -0.74 | 0.88 |
| 16 | Tai Felton | WR | MIN | 0.80 | 0.46 | -0.34 | 0.89 |
| 17 | Jalen Cropper | WR | DAL | 0.89 | 0.00 | -0.89 | 0.89 |
| 18 | Owen Wright | RB | TB | 1.19 | 0.30 | -0.89 | 0.93 |
| 19 | Ben Sims | TE | MIA | 2.21 | 2.00 | -0.21 | 0.95 |
| 20 | LeQuint Allen Jr. | RB | JAX | 2.16 | 1.55 | -0.61 | 0.95 |
| 21 | Ben Yurosek | TE | MIN | 1.06 | 0.57 | -0.50 | 0.96 |
| 22 | Dalen Cambre | WR | NYG | 1.00 | 0.00 | -1.00 | 1.00 |
| 23 | Trevor Etienne | RB | CAR | 1.09 | 0.81 | -0.28 | 1.06 |
| 24 | Chris Manhertz | TE | NYG | 1.18 | 0.42 | -0.75 | 1.09 |
| 25 | Avery Williams | RB | NYJ | 1.09 | 0.00 | -1.09 | 1.09 |
| 26 | LaJohntay Wester | WR | BAL | 1.13 | 0.00 | -1.13 | 1.13 |
| 27 | Alex Bachman | WR | LV | 1.41 | 0.29 | -1.11 | 1.14 |
| 28 | Aidan O'Connell | QB | LV | 3.63 | 4.78 | +1.15 | 1.15 |
| 29 | Jakob Johnson | RB | HOU | 1.17 | 0.00 | -1.17 | 1.17 |
| 30 | Eric Saubert | TE | SEA | 1.56 | 1.01 | -0.54 | 1.18 |
| 31 | Colson Yankoff | TE | WAS | 1.36 | 0.38 | -0.98 | 1.23 |
| 32 | Tucker Fisk | TE | LAC | 2.22 | 0.97 | -1.25 | 1.25 |
| 33 | Raheim Sanders | RB | CLE | 5.78 | 5.08 | -0.70 | 1.26 |
| 34 | Tanner Conner | TE | NYG | 2.53 | 2.26 | -0.27 | 1.27 |
| 35 | Ko Kieft | TE | TB | 1.27 | 0.00 | -1.27 | 1.27 |
| 36 | Brayden Willis | TE | SF | 1.28 | 0.00 | -1.28 | 1.28 |
| 37 | James Mitchell | TE | CAR | 2.61 | 2.90 | +0.29 | 1.29 |
| 38 | Adam Prentice | RB | DEN | 1.85 | 1.21 | -0.64 | 1.30 |
| 39 | Jacob Saylors | RB | DET | 1.43 | 0.10 | -1.33 | 1.33 |
| 40 | Casey Washington | WR | ATL | 2.55 | 3.08 | +0.53 | 1.36 |
| 41 | Kedon Slovis | QB | ARI | 1.33 | -0.04 | -1.37 | 1.37 |
| 42 | Beaux Collins | WR | NYG | 2.43 | 1.13 | -1.30 | 1.38 |
| 43 | Jimmy Horn Jr. | WR | CAR | 3.23 | 2.87 | -0.36 | 1.38 |
| 44 | Josh Williams | RB | TB | 1.94 | 0.55 | -1.39 | 1.39 |
| 45 | Robert Tonyan | TE | KC | 1.95 | 0.55 | -1.40 | 1.40 |
| 46 | Tip Reiman | TE | ARI | 2.78 | 1.60 | -1.18 | 1.40 |
| 47 | Malachi Corley | WR | CLE | 1.94 | 2.63 | +0.69 | 1.43 |
| 48 | Devin Duvernay | WR | ARI | 1.38 | 0.21 | -1.17 | 1.43 |
| 49 | E.J. Jenkins | TE | PHI | 1.46 | 0.00 | -1.46 | 1.46 |
| 50 | Brenden Bates | TE | CLE | 2.15 | 1.76 | -0.39 | 1.46 |
| 51 | Cam Grandy | TE | CIN | 2.84 | 1.35 | -1.49 | 1.49 |
| 52 | Arian Smith | WR | NYJ | 2.24 | 1.04 | -1.20 | 1.52 |
| 53 | Kalel Mullings | RB | TEN | 1.72 | 0.17 | -1.54 | 1.54 |
| 54 | David Martin-Robinson | TE | TEN | 1.56 | 1.18 | -0.38 | 1.56 |
| 55 | Johnny Mundt | TE | PHI | 3.19 | 1.83 | -1.36 | 1.56 |
| 56 | DeeJay Dallas | RB | JAX | 1.72 | 0.42 | -1.30 | 1.56 |
| 57 | James Proche | WR | TEN | 1.79 | 2.08 | +0.29 | 1.57 |
| 58 | Kene Nwangwu | RB | NYJ | 1.26 | 1.09 | -0.17 | 1.58 |
| 59 | Trent Sherfield | WR | BUF | 2.72 | 1.27 | -1.45 | 1.58 |
| 60 | Scott Miller | WR | PIT | 2.37 | 3.04 | +0.67 | 1.60 |
| 61 | British Brooks | RB | HOU | 0.72 | 0.97 | +0.26 | 1.60 |
| 62 | Jared Wiley | TE | KC | 2.31 | 0.70 | -1.61 | 1.60 |
| 63 | Austin Trammell | WR | JAX | 0.91 | 1.27 | +0.35 | 1.61 |
| 64 | Foster Moreau | TE | HOU | 3.18 | 1.83 | -1.35 | 1.63 |
| 65 | Julian Hill | TE | NE | 2.46 | 2.82 | +0.36 | 1.63 |
| 66 | Anthony Gould | WR | IND | 1.88 | 0.24 | -1.64 | 1.64 |
| 67 | Charlie Woerner | TE | ATL | 2.59 | 1.83 | -0.76 | 1.65 |
| 68 | Feleipe Franks | TE | CAR | 1.72 | 0.04 | -1.67 | 1.67 |
| 69 | Lucas Krull | TE | DEN | 3.26 | 1.75 | -1.51 | 1.68 |
| 70 | Robbie Ouzts | RB | SEA | 1.69 | 0.00 | -1.69 | 1.69 |
| 71 | Gage Larvadain | WR | CLE | 1.53 | 1.11 | -0.42 | 1.70 |
| 72 | DJ Giddens | RB | IND | 3.34 | 1.92 | -1.42 | 1.71 |
| 73 | Luke Schoonmaker | TE | DAL | 3.03 | 1.94 | -1.09 | 1.72 |
| 74 | Tim Jones | WR | JAX | 3.00 | 1.25 | -1.75 | 1.75 |
| 75 | Carter Runyon | TE | LV | 2.18 | 0.43 | -1.75 | 1.75 |
| 76 | Cade Stover | TE | HOU | 2.52 | 3.32 | +0.80 | 1.75 |
| 77 | Andre Baccellia | WR | ARI | 2.48 | 0.70 | -1.78 | 1.78 |
| 78 | Teagan Quitoriano | TE | ARI | 1.78 | 0.00 | -1.78 | 1.78 |
| 79 | Corey Kiner | RB | ARI | 2.85 | 2.33 | -0.52 | 1.79 |
| 80 | Ben Skowronek | WR | PIT | 1.62 | 1.06 | -0.56 | 1.79 |
| 81 | Shane Zylstra | TE | DET | 3.20 | 5.00 | +1.80 | 1.80 |
| 82 | Jeremy Ruckert | TE | NYJ | 3.31 | 3.35 | +0.04 | 1.82 |
| 83 | Evan Hull | RB | NO | 2.89 | 1.07 | -1.82 | 1.82 |
| 84 | Darius Cooper | WR | PHI | 2.32 | 3.03 | +0.71 | 1.83 |
| 85 | Ben Sinnott | TE | WAS | 2.70 | 3.16 | +0.45 | 1.84 |
| 86 | Ian Thomas | TE | LV | 3.27 | 2.71 | -0.56 | 1.87 |
| 87 | Keleki Latu | TE | BUF | 1.39 | 2.50 | +1.11 | 1.91 |
| 88 | Dee Eskridge | WR | MIA | 2.03 | 0.93 | -1.11 | 1.92 |
| 89 | Tay Martin | WR | WAS | 0.23 | 2.15 | +1.92 | 1.92 |
| 90 | Noah Brown | WR | WAS | 5.15 | 3.33 | -1.82 | 1.92 |
| 91 | John Bates | TE | WAS | 2.16 | 2.73 | +0.57 | 1.93 |
| 92 | Dareke Young | WR | LV | 2.12 | 0.85 | -1.27 | 1.95 |
| 93 | Derius Davis | WR | LAC | 2.34 | 0.32 | -2.02 | 2.02 |
| 94 | David Moore | WR | CAR | 2.93 | 0.90 | -2.03 | 2.03 |
| 95 | Britain Covey | WR | PHI | 1.92 | 0.67 | -1.25 | 2.03 |
| 96 | Savion Williams | WR | GB | 2.64 | 2.13 | -0.52 | 2.03 |
| 97 | Trayveon Williams | RB | CLE | 1.98 | 2.85 | +0.87 | 2.04 |
| 98 | Jamari Thrash | WR | CLE | 4.30 | 2.59 | -1.72 | 2.04 |
| 99 | Jackson Hawes | TE | BUF | 3.95 | 4.05 | +0.11 | 2.06 |
| 100 | Mason Kinsey | WR | TEN | 2.36 | 1.13 | -1.23 | 2.07 |
| 101 | Skyy Moore | WR | GB | 2.84 | 0.92 | -1.92 | 2.08 |
| 102 | Jack Stoll | TE | CLE | 2.14 | 1.84 | -0.29 | 2.12 |
| 103 | Charlie Jones | WR | CIN | 1.94 | 0.43 | -1.51 | 2.12 |
| 104 | Hunter Luepke | RB | DAL | 1.13 | 2.64 | +1.51 | 2.14 |
| 105 | Deven Thompkins | WR | ATL | 2.52 | 0.89 | -1.63 | 2.15 |
| 106 | Will Dissly | TE | LAC | 4.70 | 2.59 | -2.11 | 2.15 |
| 107 | DeAndre Carter | WR | CLE | 2.16 | 0.00 | -2.16 | 2.16 |
| 108 | Jake Bobo | WR | SEA | 2.96 | 0.80 | -2.16 | 2.16 |
| 109 | Rasheen Ali | RB | BAL | 2.20 | 1.61 | -0.59 | 2.17 |
| 110 | Ross Dwelley | TE | CAR | 2.61 | 0.43 | -2.18 | 2.18 |
| 111 | Luke Musgrave | TE | GB | 4.11 | 3.78 | -0.32 | 2.21 |
| 112 | Mo Alie-Cox | TE | IND | 3.19 | 2.79 | -0.40 | 2.23 |
| 113 | Ashton Dulin | WR | IND | 2.44 | 1.67 | -0.77 | 2.25 |
| 114 | Noah Gray | TE | KC | 4.05 | 2.77 | -1.28 | 2.27 |
| 115 | Jack Westover | TE | NE | 2.52 | 0.25 | -2.27 | 2.27 |
| 116 | Mitchell Evans | TE | CAR | 3.29 | 3.44 | +0.16 | 2.29 |
| 117 | John FitzPatrick | TE | GB | 3.29 | 2.29 | -1.00 | 2.30 |
| 118 | Malik Heath | WR | ATL | 2.74 | 2.09 | -0.65 | 2.32 |
| 119 | Cedrick Wilson Jr. | WR | MIA | 3.89 | 1.57 | -2.33 | 2.33 |
| 120 | Will Shipley | RB | PHI | 3.15 | 1.39 | -1.76 | 2.33 |
| 121 | Quintin Morris | TE | JAX | 3.02 | 1.59 | -1.43 | 2.35 |
| 122 | Anthony Firkser | TE | DET | 3.60 | 2.66 | -0.94 | 2.37 |
| 123 | Brevyn Spann-Ford | TE | DAL | 2.85 | 1.50 | -1.35 | 2.37 |
| 124 | Dont'e Thornton Jr. | WR | LV | 3.87 | 2.14 | -1.73 | 2.37 |
| 125 | Adam Trautman | TE | DEN | 2.73 | 3.50 | +0.77 | 2.38 |
| 126 | Tanner Hudson | TE | CIN | 5.75 | 4.78 | -0.97 | 2.39 |
| 127 | Marcedes Lewis | TE | DEN | 2.40 | 0.00 | -2.40 | 2.40 |
| 128 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | RB | KC | 4.53 | 2.10 | -2.43 | 2.42 |
| 129 | Nick Kallerup | TE | SEA | 2.45 | 0.00 | -2.45 | 2.45 |
| 130 | Jaylin Lane | WR | WAS | 4.31 | 3.41 | -0.90 | 2.48 |
| 131 | Tre Harris | WR | LAC | 4.26 | 4.34 | +0.08 | 2.50 |
| 132 | Drew Sample | TE | CIN | 3.62 | 2.66 | -0.96 | 2.50 |
| 133 | Samori Toure | WR | NO | 3.81 | 1.30 | -2.51 | 2.51 |
| 134 | Treylon Burks | WR | WAS | 4.39 | 3.63 | -0.77 | 2.52 |
| 135 | Gary Brightwell | RB | CIN | 2.52 | 0.00 | -2.52 | 2.52 |
| 136 | Davis Allen | TE | LA | 4.10 | 4.19 | +0.08 | 2.53 |
| 137 | Elijah Higgins | TE | ARI | 3.12 | 3.42 | +0.30 | 2.55 |
| 138 | Eric Gray | RB | NYG | 2.57 | 0.00 | -2.57 | 2.57 |
| 139 | Josh Reynolds | WR | NYJ | 5.24 | 4.62 | -0.62 | 2.57 |
| 140 | Harrison Bryant | TE | SEA | 3.29 | 0.68 | -2.61 | 2.61 |
| 141 | Ronnie Rivers | RB | LA | 3.17 | 0.77 | -2.41 | 2.62 |
| 142 | Michael Bandy | WR | DEN | 2.08 | 3.75 | +1.67 | 2.62 |
| 143 | Dare Ogunbowale | RB | HOU | 3.50 | 1.72 | -1.77 | 2.63 |
| 144 | Sione Vaki | RB | DET | 2.70 | 0.05 | -2.65 | 2.65 |
| 145 | Isaiah Bond | WR | CLE | 3.71 | 3.65 | -0.07 | 2.65 |
| 146 | Jordan Mims | RB | TEN | 2.66 | 0.00 | -2.66 | 2.66 |
| 147 | Xavier Smith | WR | LA | 1.47 | 3.02 | +1.55 | 2.67 |
| 148 | Jack Bech | WR | LV | 3.06 | 3.03 | -0.03 | 2.67 |
| 149 | Nate Adkins | TE | DEN | 2.36 | 2.80 | +0.44 | 2.67 |
| 150 | Kaleb Johnson | RB | PIT | 3.56 | 0.88 | -2.68 | 2.68 |
| 151 | Antonio Gibson | RB | NE | 6.04 | 4.64 | -1.40 | 2.69 |
| 152 | Xavier Worthy | WR | KC | 8.73 | 7.85 | -0.88 | 2.71 |
| 153 | Charlie Kolar | TE | LAC | 3.62 | 3.02 | -0.60 | 2.71 |
| 154 | Tylan Wallace | WR | CLE | 2.58 | 1.45 | -1.13 | 2.72 |
| 155 | Simi Fehoko | WR | ARI | 2.75 | 0.00 | -2.75 | 2.75 |
| 156 | Greg Dulcich | TE | MIA | 7.83 | 6.98 | -0.85 | 2.75 |
| 157 | Konata Mumpfield | WR | LA | 3.23 | 2.52 | -0.71 | 2.75 |
| 158 | Tahj Washington | WR | MIA | 3.62 | 2.35 | -1.27 | 2.76 |
| 159 | Steven Sims | WR | ARI | 2.77 | 0.00 | -2.77 | 2.77 |
| 160 | KeAndre Lambert-Smith | WR | LAC | 2.70 | 1.61 | -1.09 | 2.77 |
| 161 | Miles Sanders | RB | DAL | 7.42 | 6.67 | -0.75 | 2.78 |
| 162 | Josh Whyle | TE | GB | 3.70 | 2.43 | -1.26 | 2.80 |
| 163 | Van Jefferson | WR | WAS | 3.29 | 5.22 | +1.93 | 2.80 |
| 164 | Austin Hooper | TE | ATL | 5.64 | 4.56 | -1.08 | 2.82 |
| 165 | Luke Farrell | TE | SF | 3.13 | 2.27 | -0.86 | 2.84 |
| 166 | Dylan Drummond | WR | ATL | 2.96 | 1.87 | -1.09 | 2.86 |
| 167 | Shedrick Jackson | WR | LV | 2.43 | 5.30 | +2.87 | 2.87 |
| 168 | Stone Smartt | TE | PHI | 3.49 | 2.03 | -1.46 | 2.88 |
| 169 | Jordan Whittington | WR | LA | 5.25 | 2.42 | -2.83 | 2.88 |
| 170 | Braxton Berrios | WR | HOU | 2.31 | 2.42 | +0.11 | 2.90 |
| 171 | Darius Slayton | WR | NYG | 7.20 | 7.06 | -0.14 | 2.93 |
| 172 | Travis Homer | RB | PIT | 2.91 | -0.03 | -2.93 | 2.93 |
| 173 | Darnell Washington | TE | PIT | 2.98 | 5.65 | +2.67 | 2.95 |
| 174 | Jahan Dotson | WR | ATL | 4.09 | 3.34 | -0.74 | 2.95 |
| 175 | Andrew Ogletree | TE | IND | 2.97 | 1.15 | -1.81 | 2.96 |
| 176 | Chris Brooks | RB | GB | 4.79 | 1.92 | -2.87 | 2.97 |
| 177 | Jalen Brooks | WR | ARI | 4.30 | 1.62 | -2.68 | 3.00 |
| 178 | Blake Whiteheart | TE | CLE | 3.28 | 0.27 | -3.01 | 3.01 |
| 179 | Julius Chestnut | RB | TEN | 3.26 | 0.25 | -3.01 | 3.01 |
| 180 | Clayton Tune | QB | GB | 4.00 | 0.99 | -3.01 | 3.02 |
| 181 | Tyler Goodson | RB | ATL | 3.56 | 0.52 | -3.04 | 3.04 |
| 182 | George Holani | RB | SEA | 2.92 | 2.08 | -0.84 | 3.06 |
| 183 | Grant Calcaterra | TE | PHI | 4.15 | 2.51 | -1.64 | 3.07 |
| 184 | Elijah Arroyo | TE | SEA | 4.80 | 2.84 | -1.96 | 3.10 |
| 185 | Kevin Austin Jr. | WR | NO | 7.18 | 6.60 | -0.58 | 3.12 |
| 186 | Josiah Deguara | TE | ARI | 2.92 | 1.59 | -1.33 | 3.12 |
| 187 | Hassan Haskins | RB | LAC | 4.04 | 0.91 | -3.13 | 3.13 |
| 188 | Pharaoh Brown | TE | ARI | 3.58 | 0.42 | -3.16 | 3.16 |
| 189 | Cody White | WR | SEA | 2.44 | 2.25 | -0.19 | 3.16 |
| 190 | KaVontae Turpin | WR | DAL | 4.15 | 5.63 | +1.49 | 3.18 |
| 191 | Jeremy McNichols | RB | WAS | 5.57 | 4.54 | -1.03 | 3.19 |
| 192 | Payne Durham | TE | TB | 3.46 | 0.26 | -3.19 | 3.19 |
| 193 | Samaje Perine | RB | CIN | 5.44 | 5.19 | -0.25 | 3.20 |
| 194 | David Sills | WR | TB | 3.14 | 4.46 | +1.32 | 3.21 |
| 195 | Braelon Allen | RB | NYJ | 5.79 | 3.83 | -1.96 | 3.26 |
| 196 | JuJu Smith-Schuster | WR | KC | 3.59 | 4.32 | +0.74 | 3.28 |
| 197 | Tahj Brooks | RB | CIN | 3.82 | 0.53 | -3.29 | 3.29 |
| 198 | Hunter Long | TE | JAX | 1.41 | 4.64 | +3.24 | 3.29 |
| 199 | Brett Rypien | QB | MIN | 3.33 | 0.00 | -3.33 | 3.33 |
| 200 | Cole Kmet | TE | CHI | 6.90 | 4.92 | -1.98 | 3.33 |