Predicted vs. actual

A weekly backtest of the model. Per-position MAE, calibration by predicted-points decile, residual distribution, and rank fidelity.

Position

All QB RB WR TE

Format

PPR Standard

Season

2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020

QB MAE

6.92

499 weeks · -0.27 bias

RB MAE

5.67

1,118 weeks · +0.64 bias

WR MAE

5.52

1,688 weeks · -0.45 bias

TE MAE

4.34

947 weeks · +0.04 bias

Diagnostics — All positions · 4,252 weeks

MAE

5.46

lower is better

RMSE

7.22

penalizes large misses

Calibration · predicted vs. actual by decile

Each point is a decile of predicted points. A well-calibrated model sits on the 45° line — points above mean the model under-predicts; below, it over-predicts.

Residual distribution · actual − predicted

How miss-magnitudes spread out. Mass left of zero = over-predicted weeks; mass right = under-predicted. Centered, narrow = good.

< −15

34 (1%)

−15 to −10

161 (4%)

−10 to −5

742 (17%)

−5 to −2

943 (22%)

−2 to 0

619 (15%)

0 to 2

403 (9%)

2 to 5

472

Per-decile error decomposition

Rows are predicted-points deciles (D1 = bottom 10% of predictions, D10 = top 10%). Bias is the model's systematic over- or under-shoot within that bucket.

Decile	n	Pred (μ)	Actual (μ)	Bias	MAE	RMSE
D1	426	2.01	3.33	-1.32	3.29	5.36
D2	426	3.65	3.60	+0.05	3.47	4.71
D3	425	5.18	5.38	-0.20	4.42	5.89
D4	425	6.30	5.82	+0.48	4.76	5.85
D5	425	7.49	7.32	+0.17	5.13	6.45
D6	425	8.68	8.47	+0.21	5.79	7.37
D7	425	10.25	11.11	-0.86	6.00	7.60
D8	425	12.70	12.61	+0.09	6.88	8.56
D9	425	15.13	14.84	+0.29	7.37	9.26
D10	425	18.70	17.97	+0.74	7.49	9.40

Model versions in this slice

xgboost_qb_backfill_2020_20260516_002100QB:1064 · backfilled

xgboost_te_backfill_2020_20260516_002120TE:1933 · backfilled

xgboost_wr_backfill_2020_20260516_002115WR:3469 · backfilled

xgboost_rb_backfill_2020_20260516_002104RB:2223 · backfilled

No.	Player	Pos	Team	Pred ppg	Actual ppg	Δ ppg	MAE↓
1	Jameis Winston	QB	NYG	18.27	0.80	-17.47	17.47
2	Marcus Mariota	QB	WAS	12.01	25.84	+13.83	13.83
3	Jonathan Williams	RB	WAS	15.73	2.30	-13.43	13.43
4	Jacoby Brissett	QB	ARI	14.95	1.87	-13.08	13.08
5	David Blough	QB	DET	14.64	1.76	-12.88	12.88
6	Mike Davis	RB	BAL	1.28	13.77	+12.48	12.64
7	Zach Ertz	TE	WAS	19.53	7.05	-12.49	12.49
8	Davante Adams	WR	LA	15.97	25.60	+9.63	12.22
9	Ryan Finley	QB	CIN	13.88	4.79	-9.09	11.74
10	Matt Schaub	QB	ATL	11.25	-0.40	-11.65	11.65
11	Saquon Barkley	RB	PHI	18.85	7.70	-11.15	11.15
12	Julian Edelman	WR	NE	17.02	9.37	-7.65	11.09
13	Myles Gaskin	RB	SEA	5.46	16.42	+10.96	10.96
14	Leonard Fournette	RB	BUF	20.72	11.08	-9.64	10.96
15	Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	19.48	27.13	+7.65	10.62
16	Derrick Henry	RB	BAL	13.60	20.82	+7.21	10.46
17	Mason Rudolph	QB	PIT	11.41	4.59	-6.82	10.34
18	Kenyan Drake	RB	GB	21.31	12.81	-8.50	10.13
19	Kyler Murray	QB	MIN	16.09	23.67	+7.58	10.03
20	Alshon Jeffery	WR	PHI	13.31	3.36	-9.95	9.95
21	Stefon Diggs	WR	NE	11.50	21.19	+9.69	9.94
22	Tajae Sharpe	WR	SF	9.87	0.00	-9.87	9.87
23	Tyler Lockett	WR	LV	13.87	16.59	+2.72	9.83
24	Calvin Ridley	WR	TEN	11.04	18.77	+7.72	9.82
25	A.J. Brown	WR	PHI	8.77	17.68	+8.91	9.67
26	Brandin Cooks	WR	BUF	7.49	15.34	+7.84	9.57
27	Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	19.38	25.19	+5.81	9.52
28	Jordan Howard	RB	NO	13.28	3.80	-9.48	9.48
29	Diontae Johnson	WR	HOU	8.75	14.92	+6.17	9.44
30	Chase Daniel	QB	LAC	12.43	3.04	-9.39	9.39
31	Tom Brady	QB	TB	15.27	21.59	+6.32	9.25
32	Odell Beckham Jr.	WR	MIA	12.78	12.40	-0.37	9.24
33	DK Metcalf	WR	PIT	9.97	16.96	+6.98	9.23
34	Mark Ingram	RB	NO	14.14	5.29	-8.85	9.22
35	Jeff Wilson	RB	MIA	8.23	12.94	+4.70	9.17
36	Robert Tonyan	TE	KC	2.87	11.77	+8.90	9.11
37	Will Fuller	WR	MIA	10.34	17.17	+6.83	9.02
38	Logan Thomas	TE	WAS	2.99	11.68	+8.69	8.93
39	Bo Scarbrough	RB	SEA	11.97	3.10	-8.87	8.87
40	Adam Thielen	WR	PIT	10.96	16.93	+5.97	8.82
41	Trey Edmunds	RB	PIT	8.76	0.00	-8.76	8.76
42	John Ross	WR	PHI	10.52	1.85	-8.67	8.67
43	Cam Newton	QB	CAR	17.28	16.96	-0.32	8.67
44	Darwin Thompson	RB	SEA	5.24	6.64	+1.40	8.56
45	JuJu Smith-Schuster	WR	KC	7.81	14.63	+6.82	8.50
46	Josh Allen	QB	BUF	19.48	24.75	+5.27	8.45
47	Corey Davis	WR	NYJ	8.52	13.67	+5.16	8.39
48	Jimmy Garoppolo	QB	LA	12.94	10.72	-2.22	8.38
49	Tyreek Hill	WR	MIA	15.92	21.93	+6.00	8.38
50	David Montgomery	RB	HOU	11.13	17.65	+6.53	8.19
51	Le'Veon Bell	RB	TB	14.94	6.78	-8.16	8.16
52	Michael Gallup	WR	DAL	14.81	10.83	-3.98	8.09
53	Vyncint Smith	WR	IND	8.65	0.57	-8.08	8.08
54	Dede Westbrook	WR	GB	8.70	0.70	-8.00	8.00
55	Marvin Jones	WR	DET	15.07	14.24	-0.83	7.98
56	Joe Mixon	RB	HOU	11.68	16.60	+4.92	7.98
57	Rashaad Penny	RB	PHI	9.10	1.13	-7.97	7.97
58	Jamison Crowder	WR	WAS	11.25	14.34	+3.08	7.95
59	Aaron Rodgers	QB	PIT	17.69	23.95	+6.26	7.89
60	Travis Kelce	TE	KC	14.70	20.85	+6.15	7.89
61	Darren Waller	TE	MIA	14.52	17.41	+2.89	7.85
62	DJ Chark	WR	LAC	15.39	11.82	-3.58	7.78
63	Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	22.39	30.13	+7.74	7.74
64	Case Keenum	QB	CHI	9.43	1.84	-7.59	7.59
65	George Kittle	TE	SF	14.43	15.64	+1.21	7.59
66	Dalvin Cook	RB	DAL	18.59	24.13	+5.54	7.53
67	Kyle Allen	QB	BUF	18.73	11.25	-7.48	7.47
68	Todd Gurley	RB	ATL	15.05	10.69	-4.36	7.46
69	Phillip Lindsay	RB	IND	12.93	6.00	-6.93	7.39
70	Robert Griffin III	QB	BAL	8.03	0.65	-7.38	7.38
71	Nyheim Hines	RB	NO	5.21	12.07	+6.86	7.38
72	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	WR	DAL	6.09	9.81	+3.72	7.37
73	Keenan Allen	WR	LAC	15.97	17.51	+1.53	7.32
74	Jaylen Samuels	RB	HOU	9.14	1.82	-7.31	7.31
75	Julio Jones	WR	PHI	17.53	16.23	-1.30	7.30
76	Matt Breida	RB	NYG	11.87	4.62	-7.24	7.24
77	Ryan Fitzpatrick	QB	WAS	15.13	17.08	+1.95	7.23
78	Joe Flacco	QB	CIN	13.11	10.24	-2.87	7.23
79	T.J. Yeldon	RB	BUF	8.99	5.40	-3.59	7.18
80	Teddy Bridgewater	QB	DET	11.26	16.56	+5.30	7.16
81	Derek Carr	QB	NO	14.05	17.01	+2.96	7.15
82	Trey Quinn	WR	DET	7.13	0.00	-7.13	7.13
83	DeSean Jackson	WR	BAL	16.07	8.96	-7.11	7.11
84	Austin Ekeler	RB	WAS	13.96	16.53	+2.57	7.05
85	Rex Burkhead	RB	HOU	7.99	10.76	+2.77	7.01
86	John Brown	WR	BUF	15.31	10.76	-4.56	7.01
87	Deebo Samuel Sr.	WR	WAS	10.01	11.53	+1.52	7.00
88	DeAndre Hopkins	WR	BAL	18.94	17.99	-0.95	7.00
89	Mike Evans	WR	SF	17.29	15.54	-1.75	6.95
90	Jeff Driskel	QB	WAS	14.85	10.03	-4.82	6.92
91	Drew Lock	QB	SEA	14.26	13.95	-0.31	6.90
92	Michael Thomas	WR	NO	17.71	11.99	-5.72	6.90
93	Andy Dalton	QB	PHI	16.38	12.45	-3.93	6.89
94	Brandon Allen	QB	NYG	11.21	9.94	-1.27	6.89
95	Matt Ryan	QB	IND	18.16	17.65	-0.50	6.88
96	Christian Kirk	WR	SF	12.72	10.46	-2.26	6.85
97	Nick Foles	QB	IND	15.80	10.91	-4.89	6.82
98	Patrick Mahomes	QB	KC	19.46	24.96	+5.50	6.81
99	Rashard Higgins	WR	CAR	4.31	10.08	+5.76	6.76
100	Nick Chubb	RB	HOU	14.28	17.31	+3.02	6.72
101	Carson Wentz	QB	MIN	17.51	16.53	-0.98	6.71
102	Brian Hoyer	QB	LV	8.68	2.00	-6.68	6.68
103	Devonta Freeman	RB	BAL	12.05	7.20	-4.85	6.67
104	DJ Moore	WR	BUF	18.35	14.10	-4.25	6.66
105	Cole Beasley	WR	NYG	8.55	13.83	+5.28	6.65
106	Adrian Peterson	RB	SEA	13.52	8.15	-5.37	6.65
107	Russell Wilson	QB	NYG	20.05	22.49	+2.43	6.63
108	Tyler Boyd	WR	TEN	13.39	12.84	-0.54	6.63
109	Ryan Tannehill	QB	TEN	16.17	21.52	+5.35	6.61
110	Mike Williams	WR	LAC	8.64	10.98	+2.33	6.54
111	Baker Mayfield	QB	TB	13.54	15.54	+2.00	6.54
112	Allen Robinson	WR	DET	16.99	16.43	-0.56	6.50
113	Russell Gage	WR	SF	6.97	11.32	+4.35	6.46
114	Reggie Bonnafon	RB	WAS	4.47	8.35	+3.88	6.45
115	Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	3.00	9.16	+6.16	6.44
116	LeSean McCoy	RB	TB	9.96	3.52	-6.44	6.44
117	Sam Darnold	QB	SEA	15.38	11.17	-4.21	6.40
118	Patrick Laird	RB	TB	8.83	2.44	-6.39	6.39
119	Nelson Agholor	WR	BAL	9.45	11.47	+2.02	6.36
120	Richie James	WR	KC	3.00	6.84	+3.84	6.34
121	Jonnu Smith	TE	PIT	5.76	10.01	+4.25	6.31
122	Terry McLaurin	WR	WAS	12.35	14.92	+2.57	6.29
123	Josh Jacobs	RB	GB	13.08	15.42	+2.34	6.29
124	Matthew Stafford	QB	LA	21.12	16.29	-4.83	6.28
125	Chris Godwin Jr.	WR	TB	14.56	15.92	+1.36	6.26
126	Carlos Hyde	RB	JAX	12.70	8.49	-4.21	6.26
127	Courtland Sutton	WR	DEN	15.85	9.60	-6.25	6.25
128	Daniel Jones	QB	IND	17.77	12.86	-4.91	6.23
129	Jakobi Meyers	WR	JAX	7.30	11.88	+4.58	6.23
130	Tevin Coleman	RB	SF	8.34	2.12	-6.23	6.23
131	Alexander Mattison	RB	MIA	7.21	6.68	-0.52	6.22
132	Alex Erickson	WR	HOU	6.70	1.54	-5.16	6.16
133	Parris Campbell	WR	DAL	9.38	7.35	-2.03	6.16
134	Robert Woods	WR	HOU	15.24	15.32	+0.08	6.13
135	Aaron Jones	RB	MIN	14.41	18.49	+4.09	6.12
136	Mark Andrews	TE	BAL	12.99	12.15	-0.84	6.09
137	David Johnson	RB	NO	12.01	14.96	+2.95	6.08
138	Jimmy Graham	TE	NO	4.82	8.75	+3.93	6.05
139	Tim Patrick	WR	JAX	5.98	10.75	+4.76	6.02
140	Mike Glennon	QB	MIA	9.27	12.12	+2.85	6.02
141	Melvin Gordon	RB	BAL	10.88	13.23	+2.35	6.01
142	Auden Tate	WR	ARI	8.12	3.63	-4.49	6.00
143	Miles Sanders	RB	DAL	11.93	14.20	+2.27	5.98
144	Donte Moncrief	WR	NE	6.54	0.58	-5.96	5.96
145	Amari Cooper	WR	BUF	13.61	14.80	+1.19	5.95
146	Robbie Chosen	WR	WAS	10.04	14.53	+4.50	5.95
147	Giovani Bernard	RB	TB	6.48	9.88	+3.40	5.94
148	Mike Gesicki	TE	CIN	8.03	10.62	+2.59	5.93
149	Ezekiel Elliott	RB	LAC	18.06	14.91	-3.14	5.93
150	Sterling Shepard	WR	TB	13.44	13.54	+0.10	5.93
151	Jared Goff	QB	DET	15.99	16.00	+0.01	5.92
152	Darrell Henderson	RB	LA	6.99	8.69	+1.70	5.91
153	Mitchell Trubisky	QB	TEN	14.80	15.37	+0.57	5.88
154	Justin Jackson	RB	DET	7.91	8.16	+0.26	5.87
155	Keelan Cole	WR	LV	8.65	9.71	+1.07	5.86
156	Tony Pollard	RB	TEN	10.05	7.55	-2.50	5.85
157	Adam Humphries	WR	WAS	7.13	8.26	+1.13	5.84
158	Preston Williams	WR	CAR	11.72	9.35	-2.37	5.84
159	Curtis Samuel	WR	BUF	10.61	14.14	+3.53	5.83
160	Devin Singletary	RB	NYG	13.49	8.97	-4.51	5.81
161	Mike Boone	RB	CAR	7.30	1.49	-5.81	5.81
162	Cedrick Wilson Jr.	WR	MIA	5.46	3.97	-1.49	5.81
163	Emmanuel Sanders	WR	BUF	9.73	11.86	+2.13	5.80
164	Pharoh Cooper	WR	ARI	6.46	0.88	-5.58	5.79
165	Kareem Hunt	RB	KC	11.30	13.66	+2.36	5.77
166	Kaden Smith	TE	WAS	7.72	1.95	-5.77	5.77
167	Scott Miller	WR	PIT	5.28	7.32	+2.05	5.77
168	Dwayne Washington	RB	DEN	6.01	0.25	-5.76	5.76
169	Isaiah McKenzie	WR	MIA	9.00	6.64	-2.36	5.76
170	Dante Pettis	WR	NO	7.06	2.93	-4.13	5.74
171	Ito Smith	RB	DAL	8.52	4.09	-4.43	5.73
172	Darius Slayton	WR	NYG	9.54	8.81	-0.72	5.72
173	C.J. Uzomah	TE	PHI	5.63	11.35	+5.71	5.71
174	Irv Smith	TE	HOU	5.81	7.58	+1.77	5.70
175	Chris Carson	RB	SEA	15.96	15.65	-0.31	5.65
176	Jarvis Landry	WR	NO	14.06	12.53	-1.53	5.64
177	Lamar Jackson	QB	BAL	18.55	22.19	+3.63	5.64
178	Malcolm Brown	RB	LA	8.29	6.82	-1.48	5.62
179	Dwayne Haskins	QB	PIT	10.80	9.74	-1.06	5.62
180	Cam Sims	WR	CAR	1.46	6.63	+5.17	5.57
181	J.D. McKissic	RB	WAS	9.28	12.03	+2.75	5.57
182	James Conner	RB	ARI	14.91	12.66	-2.25	5.57
183	Travis Fulgham	WR	GB	5.12	7.70	+2.58	5.57
184	T.J. Hockenson	TE	MIN	6.53	10.96	+4.42	5.56
185	Breshad Perriman	WR	TB	7.28	8.72	+1.44	5.50
186	Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	8.46	10.58	+2.12	5.47
187	Kirk Cousins	QB	LV	18.33	19.14	+0.80	5.46
188	Evan Engram	TE	DEN	13.44	8.81	-4.63	5.45
189	Ronald Jones	RB	DAL	10.61	13.31	+2.70	5.44
190	James White	RB	NE	12.58	8.33	-4.25	5.41
191	Royce Freeman	RB	LAC	8.76	3.37	-5.39	5.39
192	Qadree Ollison	RB	PIT	5.69	0.30	-5.39	5.39
193	Jamaal Williams	RB	NO	9.77	9.08	-0.69	5.35
194	Tyrod Taylor	QB	GB	5.32	4.51	-0.81	5.34
195	DeVante Parker	WR	NE	11.62	11.88	+0.26	5.34
196	Dion Lewis	RB	NYG	8.00	3.69	-4.31	5.32
197	Willie Snead	WR	SF	6.72	7.25	+0.53	5.31
198	Keke Coutee	WR	IND	8.20	11.13	+2.92	5.29
199	Greg Ward	WR	PHI	9.10	8.32	-0.78	5.28
200	Sony Michel	RB	LAC	10.22	9.41	-0.81	5.28