Predicted vs. actual

A weekly backtest of the model. Per-position MAE, calibration by predicted-points decile, residual distribution, and rank fidelity.

Position

All QB RB WR TE

Format

PPR Standard

Season

2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020

QB MAE

7.05

517 weeks · +0.76 bias

RB MAE

5.40

1,181 weeks · +0.78 bias

WR MAE

5.27

1,876 weeks · +0.93 bias

TE MAE

3.83

949 weeks · +0.62 bias

Diagnostics — All positions · 4,523 weeks

MAE

5.21

lower is better

RMSE

6.79

penalizes large misses

Calibration · predicted vs. actual by decile

Each point is a decile of predicted points. A well-calibrated model sits on the 45° line — points above mean the model under-predicts; below, it over-predicts.

Residual distribution · actual − predicted

How miss-magnitudes spread out. Mass left of zero = over-predicted weeks; mass right = under-predicted. Centered, narrow = good.

< −15

26 (1%)

−15 to −10

213 (5%)

−10 to −5

861 (19%)

−5 to −2

1,154 (26%)

−2 to 0

635 (14%)

0 to 2

430 (10%)

2 to 5

464

Per-decile error decomposition

Rows are predicted-points deciles (D1 = bottom 10% of predictions, D10 = top 10%). Bias is the model's systematic over- or under-shoot within that bucket.

Decile	n	Pred (μ)	Actual (μ)	Bias	MAE	RMSE
D1	453	2.17	2.55	-0.38	2.76	4.19
D2	453	3.75	3.45	+0.30	3.34	4.38
D3	453	4.86	4.50	+0.35	3.98	5.11
D4	452	6.21	5.65	+0.56	4.75	6.16
D5	452	7.70	6.08	+1.62	4.97	5.96
D6	452	9.01	8.05	+0.96	5.49	6.95
D7	452	10.81	10.06	+0.75	6.31	7.62
D8	452	12.84	11.12	+1.72	6.61	8.20
D9	452	14.58	13.35	+1.23	6.68	8.30
D10	452	17.71	16.77	+0.94	7.17	9.08

Model versions in this slice

xgboost_wr_backfill_2023_20260516_002327WR:3706 · backfilled

xgboost_te_backfill_2023_20260516_002332TE:2006 · backfilled

xgboost_rb_backfill_2023_20260516_002318RB:2448 · backfilled

xgboost_qb_backfill_2023_20260516_002302QB:1241 · backfilled

No.	Player	Pos	Team	Pred ppg	Actual ppg	Δ ppg	MAE↓
1	Aaron Rodgers	QB	PIT	17.07	0.00	-17.07	17.07
2	Sam Darnold	QB	SEA	17.37	2.34	-15.03	15.32
3	Kyren Williams	RB	LA	6.61	21.25	+14.64	14.64
4	Jordan Love	QB	GB	4.61	18.77	+14.16	14.16
5	Teddy Bridgewater	QB	DET	13.40	-0.20	-13.60	13.60
6	Mike White	QB	CAR	13.72	0.34	-13.37	13.37
7	Jameis Winston	QB	NYG	14.33	1.99	-12.33	12.33
8	Rashaad Penny	RB	PHI	13.37	1.60	-11.77	11.77
9	Daniel Jones	QB	IND	16.25	9.49	-6.76	11.66
10	Dalvin Cook	RB	DAL	14.20	2.82	-11.38	11.38
11	Leonard Fournette	RB	BUF	13.24	2.00	-11.24	11.24
12	Kyle Allen	QB	BUF	11.02	-0.22	-11.23	11.23
13	Davis Mills	QB	HOU	13.50	3.56	-9.94	11.11
14	Carson Wentz	QB	MIN	15.02	26.12	+11.10	11.10
15	Marcus Mariota	QB	WAS	16.96	5.88	-11.09	11.09
16	Andy Dalton	QB	PHI	11.11	11.82	+0.71	10.88
17	Sterling Shepard	WR	TB	12.94	2.23	-10.71	10.71
18	Nico Collins	WR	HOU	8.78	17.36	+8.58	10.39
19	Jerome Ford	RB	WAS	2.09	12.42	+10.33	10.38
20	Malik Willis	QB	MIA	11.80	1.53	-10.28	10.28
21	CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	15.20	23.72	+8.52	10.24
22	Tyler Huntley	QB	BAL	14.74	5.12	-9.62	10.05
23	Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	17.14	16.42	-0.72	9.90
24	Cordarrelle Patterson	RB	PIT	12.78	3.07	-9.70	9.70
25	Deebo Samuel Sr.	WR	WAS	9.77	16.25	+6.48	9.55
26	Tyreek Hill	WR	MIA	17.42	23.52	+6.11	9.47
27	Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	14.13	11.47	-2.66	9.39
28	DJ Moore	WR	BUF	13.86	17.07	+3.21	9.33
29	Breece Hall	RB	NYJ	13.04	17.09	+4.04	9.33
30	Keenan Allen	WR	LAC	13.39	21.45	+8.06	9.23
31	Brock Purdy	QB	SF	10.76	18.48	+7.72	9.17
32	Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	17.93	20.22	+2.29	9.14
33	Nick Mullens	QB	JAX	4.76	13.35	+8.59	9.08
34	Brett Rypien	QB	MIN	10.65	1.68	-8.97	8.97
35	Donovan Peoples-Jones	WR	DET	10.81	2.04	-8.78	8.78
36	Bailey Zappe	QB	NYJ	12.65	6.92	-5.73	8.62
37	Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	17.62	24.46	+6.84	8.42
38	Joshua Dobbs	QB	NE	13.33	15.38	+2.04	8.39
39	Gabe Davis	WR	BUF	9.69	10.09	+0.40	8.35
40	Cooper Kupp	WR	SEA	18.82	13.70	-5.12	8.31
41	Bam Knight	RB	ARI	9.83	1.55	-8.28	8.28
42	Justin Fields	QB	KC	22.45	17.71	-4.75	8.26
43	Allen Lazard	WR	NYJ	12.41	4.48	-7.92	8.23
44	DeAndre Hopkins	WR	BAL	17.64	12.39	-5.26	8.12
45	A.J. Brown	WR	PHI	15.41	17.04	+1.62	8.09
46	Amari Cooper	WR	BUF	14.33	15.13	+0.80	8.08
47	Deshaun Watson	QB	CLE	10.95	14.47	+3.52	8.05
48	Davante Adams	WR	LA	15.75	15.61	-0.13	8.01
49	Noah Brown	WR	WAS	8.46	10.16	+1.71	8.00
50	Justin Herbert	QB	LAC	14.23	18.01	+3.78	7.96
51	Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	16.47	20.17	+3.70	7.96
52	Mike Evans	WR	SF	11.54	16.62	+5.08	7.96
53	Devin Duvernay	WR	ARI	8.51	0.56	-7.95	7.95
54	Mac Jones	QB	SF	14.32	9.67	-4.65	7.94
55	Raheem Mostert	RB	LV	11.85	17.85	+6.00	7.89
56	Lamar Jackson	QB	BAL	21.87	20.70	-1.17	7.85
57	Cooper Rush	QB	BAL	8.31	0.47	-7.84	7.84
58	Rondale Moore	WR	MIN	13.69	6.18	-7.51	7.84
59	Miles Sanders	RB	DAL	12.79	5.64	-7.15	7.80
60	Joe Flacco	QB	CIN	12.46	20.17	+7.71	7.71
61	Joe Burrow	QB	CIN	18.12	14.72	-3.41	7.58
62	Zack Moss	RB	CIN	6.61	12.11	+5.51	7.55
63	George Kittle	TE	SF	11.93	12.70	+0.77	7.50
64	Austin Ekeler	RB	WAS	17.04	13.24	-3.80	7.47
65	Dameon Pierce	RB	PHI	13.12	5.91	-7.21	7.41
66	Adam Thielen	WR	PIT	10.36	14.09	+3.74	7.40
67	James Cook	RB	BUF	7.14	13.69	+6.55	7.35
68	Richie James	WR	KC	9.75	2.40	-7.35	7.35
69	Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	15.25	20.68	+5.43	7.32
70	Greg Dulcich	TE	MIA	10.05	2.75	-7.30	7.30
71	JuJu Smith-Schuster	WR	KC	13.03	5.91	-7.12	7.27
72	Latavius Murray	RB	BUF	12.60	5.78	-6.82	7.24
73	James Conner	RB	ARI	15.37	15.50	+0.13	7.17
74	Kendrick Bourne	WR	ARI	5.36	12.50	+7.14	7.14
75	Amari Rodgers	WR	IND	7.11	0.00	-7.11	7.11
76	Isiah Pacheco	RB	DET	9.03	15.28	+6.25	7.11
77	Rachaad White	RB	WAS	10.04	15.76	+5.72	7.06
78	Khalil Herbert	RB	NYJ	11.98	9.38	-2.61	6.99
79	PJ Walker	QB	CLE	10.19	3.63	-6.56	6.98
80	Travis Etienne	RB	NO	13.75	16.61	+2.86	6.91
81	Derrick Henry	RB	BAL	17.42	14.51	-2.91	6.88
82	Mike Williams	WR	LAC	13.49	16.73	+3.25	6.83
83	Malik Davis	RB	DAL	6.82	0.00	-6.82	6.82
84	Case Keenum	QB	CHI	3.28	4.87	+1.59	6.81
85	Chris Conley	WR	SF	3.10	9.90	+6.80	6.80
86	Mitchell Trubisky	QB	TEN	13.34	9.74	-3.60	6.79
87	Desmond Ridder	QB	GB	13.47	11.81	-1.66	6.72
88	Stefon Diggs	WR	NE	15.64	16.11	+0.47	6.65
89	Darnell Mooney	WR	NYG	11.33	5.64	-5.70	6.63
90	Terrace Marshall Jr.	WR	MIA	9.47	4.11	-5.36	6.63
91	Jerick McKinnon	RB	KC	11.25	7.03	-4.22	6.61
92	Saquon Barkley	RB	PHI	16.13	15.94	-0.19	6.56
93	Brandin Cooks	WR	BUF	9.62	10.82	+1.21	6.54
94	Pat Freiermuth	TE	PIT	11.44	6.98	-4.46	6.54
95	Jeff Driskel	QB	WAS	7.45	13.94	+6.49	6.49
96	Tyrod Taylor	QB	GB	5.97	8.73	+2.77	6.49
97	Trey McBride	TE	ARI	5.92	10.68	+4.75	6.46
98	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	RB	KC	8.77	4.67	-4.09	6.41
99	Jakobi Meyers	WR	JAX	11.37	13.98	+2.61	6.40
100	Demarcus Robinson	WR	SF	7.18	10.27	+3.09	6.40
101	JaMycal Hasty	RB	MIA	6.39	0.00	-6.39	6.39
102	Kirk Cousins	QB	LV	15.66	18.72	+3.05	6.38
103	Jimmy Garoppolo	QB	LA	14.38	9.16	-5.22	6.37
104	Tyler Allgeier	RB	ARI	11.69	8.09	-3.60	6.34
105	George Pickens	WR	DAL	9.05	12.28	+3.23	6.34
106	Josh Jacobs	RB	GB	16.88	13.93	-2.95	6.33
107	Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	12.42	9.74	-2.68	6.25
108	Greg Dortch	WR	DET	7.30	4.03	-3.26	6.21
109	Elijah Mitchell	RB	NE	8.37	4.32	-4.05	6.18
110	Devin Singletary	RB	NYG	13.32	10.15	-3.18	6.16
111	Drake London	WR	ATL	12.37	10.90	-1.47	6.13
112	Parris Campbell	WR	DAL	9.17	3.04	-6.13	6.13
113	Najee Harris	RB	LAC	13.35	11.50	-1.85	6.11
114	Aaron Jones	RB	MIN	15.15	12.26	-2.89	6.07
115	Tyler Lockett	WR	LV	12.12	11.91	-0.22	6.07
116	Marquise Goodwin	WR	CLE	7.46	1.40	-6.06	6.06
117	Randall Cobb	WR	NYJ	7.76	1.86	-5.90	6.06
118	Javonte Williams	RB	DAL	14.38	11.20	-3.18	6.06
119	Isaiah Hodgins	WR	NYG	9.72	4.29	-5.44	6.04
120	Hunter Henry	TE	NE	6.75	9.22	+2.47	6.03
121	Jake Ferguson	TE	DAL	4.98	10.42	+5.44	6.02
122	DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	15.45	14.22	-1.23	5.95
123	Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	14.82	12.14	-2.68	5.95
124	Michael Carter	RB	TEN	9.28	3.92	-5.36	5.95
125	Gus Edwards	RB	LAC	10.52	11.00	+0.48	5.94
126	Ben Skowronek	WR	PIT	7.33	1.65	-5.67	5.94
127	Kenyan Drake	RB	GB	7.47	1.55	-5.92	5.92
128	Isaiah Likely	TE	NYG	5.75	7.22	+1.47	5.90
129	Geno Smith	QB	NYJ	16.85	15.15	-1.70	5.88
130	Jalen Hurts	QB	PHI	20.07	20.99	+0.92	5.87
131	Marvin Jones	WR	DET	7.49	1.63	-5.87	5.87
132	Trevor Siemian	QB	ATL	2.88	6.38	+3.50	5.87
133	Marquise Brown	WR	PHI	13.68	10.36	-3.31	5.83
134	Kenneth Walker III	RB	KC	12.32	13.29	+0.98	5.82
135	Olamide Zaccheaus	WR	ATL	8.19	3.84	-4.35	5.81
136	Jamaal Williams	RB	NO	10.16	4.80	-5.36	5.80
137	Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	15.82	17.92	+2.10	5.79
138	Terry McLaurin	WR	WAS	16.00	11.95	-4.05	5.79
139	Ryan Tannehill	QB	TEN	12.93	8.89	-4.04	5.78
140	Brandon Aiyuk	WR	SF	13.80	15.57	+1.78	5.76
141	Mack Hollins	WR	NE	9.35	3.59	-5.76	5.76
142	Allen Robinson	WR	DET	9.75	4.13	-5.61	5.76
143	Mecole Hardman	WR	BUF	8.08	3.96	-4.12	5.74
144	Julio Jones	WR	PHI	7.88	4.55	-3.33	5.73
145	Ty Chandler	RB	NO	1.01	6.31	+5.30	5.70
146	DJ Chark	WR	LAC	8.77	8.20	-0.57	5.70
147	Chris Godwin Jr.	WR	TB	15.92	12.31	-3.62	5.67
148	Christian Watson	WR	GB	7.86	11.26	+3.40	5.66
149	Baker Mayfield	QB	TB	12.90	15.98	+3.08	5.63
150	Quez Watkins	WR	PHI	5.12	7.04	+1.92	5.63
151	Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	9.36	10.03	+0.68	5.63
152	DeAndre Carter	WR	CLE	6.20	0.59	-5.61	5.61
153	Cole Kmet	TE	CHI	9.65	11.32	+1.67	5.61
154	Damien Harris	RB	BUF	8.47	3.17	-5.31	5.60
155	Travis Homer	RB	PIT	5.59	0.00	-5.59	5.59
156	Royce Freeman	RB	LAC	7.99	3.96	-4.03	5.58
157	Isaiah McKenzie	WR	MIA	7.27	1.72	-5.56	5.56
158	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	WR	DAL	7.84	3.53	-4.31	5.55
159	Curtis Samuel	WR	BUF	10.88	9.82	-1.06	5.55
160	Josh Allen	QB	BUF	21.93	23.10	+1.17	5.53
161	Travis Kelce	TE	KC	14.64	14.63	-0.01	5.53
162	Rashid Shaheed	WR	SEA	7.87	10.51	+2.64	5.45
163	Joe Mixon	RB	HOU	16.97	15.71	-1.26	5.45
164	Kenny Pickett	QB	CAR	13.71	9.18	-4.52	5.44
165	David Njoku	TE	CLE	9.85	12.57	+2.72	5.42
166	Jared Goff	QB	DET	16.34	17.01	+0.67	5.41
167	Zay Jones	WR	ARI	13.35	8.68	-4.67	5.38
168	Juwan Johnson	TE	NO	8.25	7.52	-0.72	5.38
169	Albert Okwuegbunam	TE	LV	5.38	0.00	-5.38	5.38
170	Tony Pollard	RB	TEN	14.45	13.09	-1.35	5.36
171	Brandon Johnson	WR	PIT	5.29	7.34	+2.05	5.34
172	Joshua Kelley	RB	TEN	7.29	3.63	-3.66	5.33
173	Jahan Dotson	WR	ATL	8.82	7.34	-1.48	5.33
174	Craig Reynolds	RB	NE	7.36	2.63	-4.73	5.32
175	Deon Jackson	RB	NYG	7.29	2.00	-5.29	5.29
176	Jeff Wilson	RB	MIA	9.82	4.59	-5.23	5.27
177	Romeo Doubs	WR	NE	8.01	10.26	+2.24	5.26
178	Zamir White	RB	LV	3.34	5.68	+2.34	5.25
179	D'Andre Swift	RB	CHI	13.86	12.66	-1.20	5.24
180	Darius Slayton	WR	NYG	10.00	8.88	-1.12	5.24
181	Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	14.77	15.64	+0.87	5.22
182	Jauan Jennings	WR	SF	7.92	3.96	-3.96	5.22
183	Michael Gallup	WR	DAL	7.59	5.49	-2.10	5.18
184	Brian Robinson	RB	ATL	9.48	13.21	+3.73	5.17
185	Jonnu Smith	TE	PIT	4.76	7.31	+2.54	5.16
186	Ezekiel Elliott	RB	LAC	12.45	10.34	-2.12	5.15
187	Alex Erickson	WR	HOU	1.06	6.19	+5.13	5.13
188	Tony Jones	RB	ARI	7.36	5.37	-1.99	5.12
189	David Bell	WR	CLE	5.09	5.41	+0.32	5.09
190	T.J. Hockenson	TE	MIN	13.56	14.60	+1.04	5.09
191	Derek Carr	QB	NO	16.19	14.51	-1.68	5.09
192	Diontae Johnson	WR	HOU	11.46	11.75	+0.28	5.09
193	Khalil Shakir	WR	BUF	4.56	7.07	+2.51	5.08
194	Tua Tagovailoa	QB	ATL	16.47	15.90	-0.56	5.08
195	Nick Chubb	RB	HOU	14.56	11.55	-3.01	5.07
196	Patrick Mahomes	QB	KC	20.17	17.51	-2.66	5.06
197	Jacoby Brissett	QB	ARI	16.47	11.43	-5.04	5.04
198	Courtland Sutton	WR	DEN	10.37	11.89	+1.52	5.04
199	DK Metcalf	WR	PIT	12.02	14.09	+2.07	5.02
200	Mark Andrews	TE	BAL	13.45	13.54	+0.09	5.01