A weekly backtest of the model. Mean absolute error per position, plus the players where we were most and least correct.
| No. | Player | Pos | Team | Pred ppg | Actual ppg | Δ ppg | MAE↓ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthony Richardson | QB | IND | 18.81 | 1.08 | -17.73 | 17.73 |
| 2 | Mitchell Trubisky |
| TEN |
| 9.68 |
| 10.24 |
| +0.56 |
| 16.18 |
| 3 | Jimmy Garoppolo | QB | LA | 15.52 | -0.33 | -15.85 | 15.85 |
| 4 | Jarrett Stidham | QB | DEN | 14.05 | -0.10 | -14.15 | 14.15 |
| 5 | Zach Wilson | QB | NO | 13.84 | 0.34 | -13.49 | 13.49 |
| 6 | Nick Mullens | QB | JAX | 13.36 | -0.01 | -13.37 | 13.37 |
| 7 | Joshua Dobbs | QB | NE | 13.40 | 0.53 | -12.88 | 12.88 |
| 8 | Josh Allen | QB | BUF | 18.58 | 22.79 | +4.21 | 12.79 |
| 9 | Malik Willis | QB | MIA | 5.71 | 16.87 | +11.16 | 12.03 |
| 10 | Jonathan Taylor | RB | IND | 13.79 | 21.31 | +7.52 | 11.97 |
| 11 | Bijan Robinson | RB | ATL | 14.81 | 21.81 | +7.00 | 11.92 |
| 12 | Elijah Mitchell | RB | NE | 11.76 | 0.00 | -11.76 | 11.76 |
| 13 | Jake Browning | QB | TB | 14.59 | 9.75 | -4.85 | 11.23 |
| 14 | Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | 11.17 | 20.41 | +9.23 | 11.17 |
| 15 | Drew Lock | QB | SEA | 11.14 | 0.03 | -11.11 | 11.11 |
| 16 | Justin Fields | QB | KC | 14.40 | 16.96 | +2.56 | 11.02 |
| 17 | Puka Nacua | WR | LA | 14.90 | 23.44 | +8.54 | 10.60 |
| 18 | James Cook | RB | BUF | 15.24 | 17.78 | +2.53 | 10.49 |
| 19 | Trevor Lawrence | QB | JAX | 12.86 | 19.89 | +7.04 | 10.40 |
| 20 | Jameis Winston | QB | NYG | 10.09 | 14.43 | +4.34 | 10.35 |
| 21 | Gardner Minshew | QB | ARI | 10.21 | -0.08 | -10.29 | 10.29 |
| 22 | Drake London | WR | ATL | 11.62 | 16.82 | +5.20 | 10.26 |
| 23 | Matthew Stafford | QB | LA | 12.85 | 20.61 | +7.76 | 10.12 |
| 24 | Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | 10.96 | 18.46 | +7.50 | 10.09 |
| 25 | Jaxson Dart | QB | NYG | 12.73 | 17.26 | +4.52 | 9.96 |
| 26 | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | DET | 14.00 | 21.58 | +7.58 | 9.89 |
| 27 | Rashee Rice | WR | KC | 11.16 | 18.76 | +7.60 | 9.88 |
| 28 | Christian McCaffrey | RB | SF | 16.65 | 24.51 | +7.86 | 9.48 |
| 29 | George Pickens | WR | DAL | 11.13 | 17.17 | +6.04 | 9.38 |
| 30 | Bo Nix | QB | DEN | 12.58 | 17.93 | +5.36 | 9.32 |
| 31 | Joe Flacco | QB | CIN | 14.97 | 11.28 | -3.69 | 9.24 |
| 32 | Jacoby Brissett | QB | ARI | 10.53 | 16.25 | +5.71 | 9.19 |
| 33 | Kenneth Gainwell | RB | TB | 4.43 | 13.37 | +8.94 | 9.12 |
| 34 | Brock Purdy | QB | SF | 14.05 | 19.71 | +5.66 | 9.12 |
| 35 | Sean Tucker | RB | TB | 11.95 | 5.38 | -6.57 | 9.01 |
| 36 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | SEA | 12.84 | 21.17 | +8.33 | 8.87 |
| 37 | Daniel Jones | QB | IND | 16.57 | 17.42 | +0.85 | 8.85 |
| 38 | David Njoku | TE | CLE | 14.40 | 7.85 | -6.56 | 8.72 |
| 39 | Malik Nabers | WR | NYG | 11.82 | 14.28 | +2.45 | 8.71 |
| 40 | Tyson Bagent | QB | CHI | 9.91 | 1.29 | -8.62 | 8.62 |
| 41 | DJ Moore | WR | BUF | 13.38 | 10.25 | -3.13 | 8.54 |
| 42 | Lamar Jackson | QB | BAL | 19.07 | 16.53 | -2.54 | 8.49 |
| 43 | Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | TEN | 9.65 | 13.71 | +4.07 | 8.46 |
| 44 | Tyrod Taylor | QB | GB | 10.96 | 9.91 | -1.05 | 8.45 |
| 45 | Justin Herbert | QB | LAC | 11.10 | 17.93 | +6.83 | 8.43 |
| 46 | Davis Mills | QB | HOU | 7.72 | 11.43 | +3.72 | 8.42 |
| 47 | Mac Jones | QB | SF | 11.41 | 11.82 | +0.42 | 8.37 |
| 48 | Emeka Egbuka | WR | TB | 12.09 | 11.51 | -0.58 | 8.37 |
| 49 | Michael Wilson | WR | ARI | 6.74 | 12.98 | +6.23 | 8.30 |
| 50 | Sam Darnold | QB | SEA | 15.21 | 13.85 | -1.36 | 8.19 |
| 51 | Ja'Marr Chase | WR | CIN | 15.36 | 19.60 | +4.24 | 8.15 |
| 52 | Jared Goff | QB | DET | 11.88 | 17.47 | +5.59 | 8.15 |
| 53 | TreVeyon Henderson | RB | NE | 12.69 | 12.13 | -0.56 | 8.13 |
| 54 | Riley Leonard | QB | IND | 5.31 | 6.20 | +0.89 | 8.12 |
| 55 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | DET | 16.25 | 19.06 | +2.81 | 8.05 |
| 56 | De'Von Achane | RB | MIA | 13.77 | 20.18 | +6.40 | 8.04 |
| 57 | Russell Wilson | QB | NYG | 12.60 | 8.31 | -4.30 | 8.03 |
| 58 | Derrick Henry | RB | BAL | 13.81 | 16.44 | +2.63 | 8.02 |
| 59 | Courtland Sutton | WR | DEN | 9.65 | 12.92 | +3.28 | 8.01 |
| 60 | Breece Hall | RB | NYJ | 16.69 | 12.98 | -3.71 | 8.00 |
| 61 | Trey McBride | TE | ARI | 12.83 | 18.58 | +5.75 | 7.95 |
| 62 | Kenny Pickett | QB | CAR | 7.78 | -0.15 | -7.93 | 7.93 |
| 63 | Jameson Williams | WR | DET | 9.43 | 12.94 | +3.50 | 7.93 |
| 64 | A.J. Brown | WR | PHI | 12.52 | 14.69 | +2.17 | 7.85 |
| 65 | Caleb Williams | QB | CHI | 12.58 | 18.72 | +6.14 | 7.82 |
| 66 | Darren Waller | TE | MIA | 9.09 | 9.86 | +0.77 | 7.79 |
| 67 | Kirk Cousins | QB | LV | 10.70 | 10.71 | +0.01 | 7.78 |
| 68 | Josh Jacobs | RB | GB | 14.86 | 15.81 | +0.95 | 7.74 |
| 69 | Travis Etienne | RB | NO | 9.94 | 14.66 | +4.72 | 7.73 |
| 70 | Sam LaPorta | TE | DET | 9.74 | 11.88 | +2.14 | 7.71 |
| 71 | Zay Flowers | WR | BAL | 13.52 | 14.31 | +0.79 | 7.67 |
| 72 | Cam Skattebo | RB | NYG | 15.66 | 15.96 | +0.30 | 7.64 |
| 73 | Christian Watson | WR | GB | 6.67 | 13.24 | +6.57 | 7.62 |
| 74 | Joe Burrow | QB | CIN | 16.81 | 16.81 | -0.00 | 7.61 |
| 75 | Rome Odunze | WR | CHI | 7.22 | 12.17 | +4.95 | 7.58 |
| 76 | Rico Dowdle | RB | PIT | 9.62 | 11.49 | +1.87 | 7.57 |
| 77 | Rachaad White | RB | WAS | 14.09 | 8.61 | -5.48 | 7.53 |
| 78 | Kyle Williams | WR | NE | 8.92 | 3.51 | -5.40 | 7.51 |
| 79 | Isiah Pacheco | RB | DET | 13.70 | 6.79 | -6.91 | 7.44 |
| 80 | Tory Horton | WR | SEA | 6.43 | 8.14 | +1.70 | 7.43 |
| 81 | Michael Pittman | WR | PIT | 9.98 | 11.72 | +1.73 | 7.42 |
| 82 | Evan Engram | TE | DEN | 13.67 | 6.42 | -7.25 | 7.40 |
| 83 | Parker Washington | WR | JAX | 5.25 | 11.54 | +6.30 | 7.39 |
| 84 | Jake Tonges | TE | SF | 2.63 | 9.33 | +6.70 | 7.31 |
| 85 | Jordan Love | QB | GB | 13.42 | 15.68 | +2.25 | 7.31 |
| 86 | Cooper Rush | QB | BAL | 7.74 | 0.43 | -7.31 | 7.31 |
| 87 | Davante Adams | WR | LA | 13.50 | 15.92 | +2.42 | 7.29 |
| 88 | Baker Mayfield | QB | TB | 13.53 | 16.00 | +2.47 | 7.23 |
| 89 | RJ Harvey | RB | DEN | 9.92 | 12.15 | +2.23 | 7.18 |
| 90 | Teddy Bridgewater | QB | DET | 8.14 | 0.96 | -7.18 | 7.18 |
| 91 | Brock Bowers | TE | LV | 11.95 | 14.68 | +2.73 | 7.16 |
| 92 | Dillon Gabriel | QB | CLE | 7.48 | 7.01 | -0.47 | 7.16 |
| 93 | Garrett Wilson | WR | NYJ | 12.67 | 14.21 | +1.54 | 7.14 |
| 94 | Tucker Kraft | TE | GB | 13.08 | 14.65 | +1.57 | 7.12 |
| 95 | Justin Jefferson | WR | MIN | 15.98 | 11.85 | -4.13 | 7.12 |
| 96 | Marcus Mariota | QB | WAS | 12.33 | 12.55 | +0.22 | 7.11 |
| 97 | James Conner | RB | ARI | 13.43 | 11.10 | -2.33 | 7.07 |
| 98 | Keenan Allen | WR | LAC | 10.58 | 10.75 | +0.17 | 7.05 |
| 99 | Mason Rudolph | QB | PIT | 8.18 | 3.00 | -5.18 | 7.04 |
| 100 | Devin Culp | TE | TB | 8.88 | 1.90 | -6.98 | 6.98 |
| 101 | Quentin Johnston | WR | LAC | 8.23 | 13.17 | +4.94 | 6.97 |
| 102 | Chris Olave | WR | NO | 12.14 | 16.75 | +4.61 | 6.93 |
| 103 | Javonte Williams | RB | DAL | 8.62 | 15.18 | +6.55 | 6.92 |
| 104 | Kimani Vidal | RB | LAC | 5.72 | 9.07 | +3.35 | 6.89 |
| 105 | Alec Pierce | WR | IND | 7.69 | 12.22 | +4.53 | 6.87 |
| 106 | Brian Robinson | RB | ATL | 10.00 | 3.83 | -6.17 | 6.82 |
| 107 | J.J. McCarthy | QB | MIN | 12.64 | 12.54 | -0.10 | 6.82 |
| 108 | Calvin Ridley | WR | TEN | 12.91 | 6.76 | -6.15 | 6.80 |
| 109 | Troy Franklin | WR | DEN | 4.94 | 10.42 | +5.47 | 6.80 |
| 110 | Colby Parkinson | TE | LA | 3.97 | 9.27 | +5.30 | 6.76 |
| 111 | Drake Maye | QB | NE | 15.62 | 20.70 | +5.09 | 6.72 |
| 112 | Cooper Kupp | WR | SEA | 13.09 | 7.27 | -5.82 | 6.71 |
| 113 | Andy Dalton | QB | PHI | 9.09 | 2.38 | -6.71 | 6.71 |
| 114 | CeeDee Lamb | WR | DAL | 11.99 | 15.45 | +3.47 | 6.70 |
| 115 | Jerome Ford | RB | WAS | 10.32 | 3.66 | -6.66 | 6.69 |
| 116 | Dallas Goedert | TE | PHI | 9.08 | 12.34 | +3.26 | 6.68 |
| 117 | Ricky Pearsall | WR | SF | 6.39 | 9.84 | +3.45 | 6.68 |
| 118 | Michael Penix Jr. | QB | ATL | 7.44 | 13.36 | +5.92 | 6.66 |
| 119 | Adam Thielen | WR | PIT | 9.45 | 2.83 | -6.62 | 6.62 |
| 120 | Jaylen Waddle | WR | DEN | 9.03 | 12.13 | +3.10 | 6.62 |
| 121 | Chase Brown | RB | CIN | 11.10 | 16.62 | +5.53 | 6.62 |
| 122 | Geno Smith | QB | NYJ | 13.78 | 10.55 | -3.23 | 6.61 |
| 123 | Justice Hill | RB | BAL | 8.31 | 6.52 | -1.79 | 6.59 |
| 124 | Mecole Hardman | WR | BUF | 6.59 | 0.00 | -6.59 | 6.59 |
| 125 | T.J. Hockenson | TE | MIN | 13.05 | 7.52 | -5.53 | 6.57 |
| 126 | Dalton Kincaid | TE | BUF | 8.87 | 10.51 | +1.64 | 6.55 |
| 127 | Tua Tagovailoa | QB | ATL | 11.09 | 10.61 | -0.47 | 6.53 |
| 128 | Myles Gaskin | RB | SEA | 7.12 | 0.60 | -6.52 | 6.52 |
| 129 | Shedeur Sanders | QB | CLE | 10.86 | 10.61 | -0.25 | 6.51 |
| 130 | Roschon Johnson | RB | CHI | 6.79 | 0.28 | -6.50 | 6.50 |
| 131 | DeVonta Smith | WR | PHI | 12.11 | 11.87 | -0.24 | 6.49 |
| 132 | Kyle Allen | QB | BUF | 6.33 | -0.15 | -6.48 | 6.48 |
| 133 | Ashton Jeanty | RB | LV | 14.62 | 14.42 | -0.21 | 6.46 |
| 134 | Chris Godwin Jr. | WR | TB | 13.84 | 9.22 | -4.62 | 6.46 |
| 135 | Chuba Hubbard | RB | CAR | 12.35 | 8.36 | -3.99 | 6.43 |
| 136 | Jonnu Smith | TE | PIT | 11.06 | 5.01 | -6.05 | 6.43 |
| 137 | Christian Kirk | WR | SF | 10.32 | 5.63 | -4.69 | 6.42 |
| 138 | Tyreek Hill | WR | MIA | 11.93 | 13.38 | +1.45 | 6.42 |
| 139 | Spencer Rattler | QB | NO | 9.04 | 11.02 | +1.98 | 6.41 |
| 140 | Bucky Irving | RB | TB | 16.63 | 13.85 | -2.78 | 6.41 |
| 141 | George Kittle | TE | SF | 11.31 | 14.68 | +3.38 | 6.40 |
| 142 | Isaac Guerendo | RB | SF | 6.37 | 0.00 | -6.37 | 6.37 |
| 143 | DeAndre Hopkins | WR | BAL | 8.57 | 3.94 | -4.62 | 6.35 |
| 144 | Khalil Shakir | WR | BUF | 9.78 | 10.40 | +0.62 | 6.32 |
| 145 | Ryan Flournoy | WR | DAL | 2.25 | 7.60 | +5.35 | 6.26 |
| 146 | Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | ARI | 10.13 | 10.65 | +0.53 | 6.20 |
| 147 | Colston Loveland | TE | CHI | 7.29 | 10.32 | +3.03 | 6.19 |
| 148 | Max Brosmer | QB | MIN | 6.79 | 0.60 | -6.19 | 6.19 |
| 149 | Isaiah Likely | TE | NYG | 10.00 | 4.47 | -5.53 | 6.18 |
| 150 | Jalen Hurts | QB | PHI | 15.32 | 18.82 | +3.50 | 6.17 |
| 151 | Jalen McMillan | WR | TB | 8.61 | 7.47 | -1.14 | 6.17 |
| 152 | Alvin Kamara | RB | NO | 14.55 | 9.15 | -5.40 | 6.16 |
| 153 | Cam Ward | QB | TEN | 9.71 | 10.98 | +1.27 | 6.13 |
| 154 | Tyler Shough | QB | NO | 15.41 | 14.36 | -1.05 | 6.08 |
| 155 | Jayden Daniels | QB | WAS | 13.24 | 16.33 | +3.09 | 6.06 |
| 156 | Tee Higgins | WR | CIN | 10.81 | 14.11 | +3.30 | 6.04 |
| 157 | Josh Johnson | QB | CIN | 11.00 | 8.13 | -2.87 | 6.00 |
| 158 | Saquon Barkley | RB | PHI | 14.06 | 14.52 | +0.46 | 5.96 |
| 159 | Nico Collins | WR | HOU | 11.98 | 15.08 | +3.10 | 5.95 |
| 160 | AJ Barner | TE | SEA | 4.05 | 8.66 | +4.62 | 5.93 |
| 161 | Jawhar Jordan | RB | HOU | 10.57 | 7.42 | -3.15 | 5.92 |
| 162 | Justin Watson | WR | HOU | 7.91 | 2.00 | -5.91 | 5.91 |
| 163 | Travis Kelce | TE | KC | 10.84 | 11.36 | +0.53 | 5.91 |
| 164 | Mark Andrews | TE | BAL | 8.37 | 7.71 | -0.66 | 5.91 |
| 165 | Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | JAX | 12.57 | 9.91 | -2.66 | 5.88 |
| 166 | C.J. Stroud | QB | HOU | 11.08 | 14.90 | +3.82 | 5.86 |
| 167 | D'Andre Swift | RB | CHI | 10.08 | 14.29 | +4.21 | 5.83 |
| 168 | Tyrone Tracy Jr. | RB | NYG | 10.44 | 10.72 | +0.28 | 5.80 |
| 169 | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB | WAS | 9.46 | 8.25 | -1.21 | 5.80 |
| 170 | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | WR | IND | 7.32 | 1.53 | -5.79 | 5.79 |
| 171 | Ray Davis | RB | BUF | 7.40 | 3.77 | -3.63 | 5.78 |
| 172 | Chase Edmonds | RB | WAS | 5.75 | 0.00 | -5.75 | 5.75 |
| 173 | Najee Harris | RB | LAC | 9.61 | 3.87 | -5.74 | 5.74 |
| 174 | Kayshon Boutte | WR | NE | 4.99 | 8.86 | +3.87 | 5.74 |
| 175 | Kyle Pitts | TE | ATL | 9.19 | 12.40 | +3.21 | 5.73 |
| 176 | Tyler Huntley | QB | BAL | 11.47 | 8.03 | -3.45 | 5.73 |
| 177 | Parris Campbell | WR | DAL | 5.70 | 0.00 | -5.70 | 5.70 |
| 178 | Brenton Strange | TE | JAX | 4.46 | 9.83 | +5.38 | 5.68 |
| 179 | Oronde Gadsden II | TE | LAC | 7.24 | 8.76 | +1.52 | 5.68 |
| 180 | Devin Singletary | RB | NYG | 7.69 | 6.40 | -1.29 | 5.68 |
| 181 | Khalil Herbert | RB | NYJ | 6.47 | 1.32 | -5.15 | 5.67 |
| 182 | Cade Otton | TE | TB | 9.65 | 8.15 | -1.51 | 5.66 |
| 183 | Austin Ekeler | RB | WAS | 12.21 | 6.55 | -5.66 | 5.66 |
| 184 | Trey Lance | QB | LAC | 8.96 | 3.38 | -5.57 | 5.64 |
| 185 | Isaac TeSlaa | WR | DET | 6.07 | 5.42 | -0.65 | 5.64 |
| 186 | Brandin Cooks | WR | BUF | 8.37 | 4.22 | -4.15 | 5.63 |
| 187 | Jauan Jennings | WR | SF | 11.09 | 11.55 | +0.47 | 5.62 |
| 188 | Brandon Allen | QB | NYG | 6.44 | 0.88 | -5.56 | 5.56 |
| 189 | Tez Johnson | WR | TB | 5.04 | 6.16 | +1.12 | 5.54 |
| 190 | Chimere Dike | WR | TEN | 5.67 | 7.54 | +1.86 | 5.53 |
| 191 | Ray-Ray McCloud | WR | NYG | 7.82 | 2.32 | -5.50 | 5.50 |
| 192 | Bryce Young | QB | CAR | 10.38 | 13.63 | +3.24 | 5.49 |
| 193 | Chris Oladokun | QB | KC | 7.16 | 3.73 | -3.43 | 5.45 |
| 194 | Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | NE | 14.05 | 12.77 | -1.28 | 5.42 |
| 195 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | PIT | 11.18 | 14.19 | +3.01 | 5.42 |
| 196 | Romeo Doubs | WR | NE | 7.81 | 11.03 | +3.22 | 5.41 |
| 197 | Joe Milton III | QB | DAL | 7.98 | 2.58 | -5.40 | 5.40 |
| 198 | Keaton Mitchell | RB | LAC | 8.86 | 4.38 | -4.49 | 5.40 |
| 199 | Tre Tucker | WR | LV | 5.14 | 9.51 | +4.37 | 5.37 |
| 200 | Ladd McConkey | WR | LAC | 11.17 | 11.31 | +0.14 | 5.37 |