Predicted vs. actual

A weekly backtest of the model. Per-position MAE, calibration by predicted-points decile, residual distribution, and rank fidelity.

Position

All QB RB WR TE

Format

PPR Standard

Season

2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020

QB MAE

6.92

499 weeks · -0.27 bias

RB MAE

5.67

1,118 weeks · +0.64 bias

WR MAE

5.52

1,688 weeks · -0.45 bias

TE MAE

4.34

947 weeks · +0.04 bias

Diagnostics — QB · 499 weeks

MAE

6.92

lower is better

RMSE

8.57

penalizes large misses

Calibration · predicted vs. actual by decile

Each point is a decile of predicted points. A well-calibrated model sits on the 45° line — points above mean the model under-predicts; below, it over-predicts.

Residual distribution · actual − predicted

How miss-magnitudes spread out. Mass left of zero = over-predicted weeks; mass right = under-predicted. Centered, narrow = good.

< −15

12 (2%)

−15 to −10

55 (11%)

−10 to −5

75 (15%)

−5 to −2

59 (12%)

−2 to 0

40 (8%)

0 to 2

57 (11%)

2 to 5

51 (10%)

Per-decile error decomposition

Rows are predicted-points deciles (D1 = bottom 10% of predictions, D10 = top 10%). Bias is the model's systematic over- or under-shoot within that bucket.

Decile	n	Pred (μ)	Actual (μ)	Bias	MAE	RMSE
D1	50	7.42	6.11	+1.31	5.22	6.22
D2	50	12.69	11.71	+0.98	8.35	9.54
D3	50	14.36	14.54	-0.18	7.38	9.12
D4	50	15.30	14.02	+1.28	7.03	8.67
D5	50	15.89	17.46	-1.57	7.49	9.07
D6	50	16.73	18.90	-2.18	7.45	9.63
D7	50	17.68	18.66	-0.98	6.48	7.89
D8	50	18.54	18.40	+0.14	6.38	8.28
D9	50	19.29	21.03	-1.75	7.03	8.89
D10	49	20.84	20.61	+0.23	6.38	7.89

No.	Player	Pos	Team	Pred ppg	Actual ppg	Δ ppg	MAE↓
1	Jameis Winston	QB	NYG	18.27	0.80	-17.47	17.47
2	Marcus Mariota	QB	WAS	12.01	25.84	+13.83	13.83
3	Jacoby Brissett	QB	ARI	14.95	1.87	-13.08	13.08
4	David Blough	QB	DET	14.64	1.76	-12.88	12.88
5	Ryan Finley	QB	CIN	13.88	4.79	-9.09	11.74
6	Matt Schaub	QB	ATL	11.25	-0.40	-11.65	11.65
7	Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	19.48	27.13	+7.65	10.62
8	Mason Rudolph	QB	PIT	11.41	4.59	-6.82	10.34
9	Kyler Murray	QB	MIN	16.09	23.67	+7.58	10.03
10	Chase Daniel	QB	LAC	12.43	3.04	-9.39	9.39
11	Tom Brady	QB	TB	15.27	21.59	+6.32	9.25
12	Cam Newton	QB	CAR	17.28	16.96	-0.32	8.67
13	Josh Allen	QB	BUF	19.48	24.75	+5.27	8.45
14	Jimmy Garoppolo	QB	LA	12.94	10.72	-2.22	8.38
15	Aaron Rodgers	QB	PIT	17.69	23.95	+6.26	7.89
16	Case Keenum	QB	CHI	9.43	1.84	-7.59	7.59
17	Kyle Allen	QB	BUF	18.73	11.25	-7.48	7.47
18	Robert Griffin III	QB	BAL	8.03	0.65	-7.38	7.38
19	Ryan Fitzpatrick	QB	WAS	15.13	17.08	+1.95	7.23
20	Joe Flacco	QB	CIN	13.11	10.24	-2.87	7.23
21	Teddy Bridgewater	QB	DET	11.26	16.56	+5.30	7.16
22	Derek Carr	QB	NO	14.05	17.01	+2.96	7.15
23	Jeff Driskel	QB	WAS	14.85	10.03	-4.82	6.92
24	Drew Lock	QB	SEA	14.26	13.95	-0.31	6.90
25	Andy Dalton	QB	PHI	16.38	12.45	-3.93	6.89
26	Brandon Allen	QB	NYG	11.21	9.94	-1.27	6.89
27	Matt Ryan	QB	IND	18.16	17.65	-0.50	6.88
28	Nick Foles	QB	IND	15.80	10.91	-4.89	6.82
29	Patrick Mahomes	QB	KC	19.46	24.96	+5.50	6.81
30	Carson Wentz	QB	MIN	17.51	16.53	-0.98	6.71
31	Brian Hoyer	QB	LV	8.68	2.00	-6.68	6.68
32	Russell Wilson	QB	NYG	20.05	22.49	+2.43	6.63
33	Ryan Tannehill	QB	TEN	16.17	21.52	+5.35	6.61
34	Baker Mayfield	QB	TB	13.54	15.54	+2.00	6.54
35	Sam Darnold	QB	SEA	15.38	11.17	-4.21	6.40
36	Matthew Stafford	QB	LA	21.12	16.29	-4.83	6.28
37	Daniel Jones	QB	IND	17.77	12.86	-4.91	6.23
38	Mike Glennon	QB	MIA	9.27	12.12	+2.85	6.02
39	Jared Goff	QB	DET	15.99	16.00	+0.01	5.92
40	Mitchell Trubisky	QB	TEN	14.80	15.37	+0.57	5.88
41	Lamar Jackson	QB	BAL	18.55	22.19	+3.63	5.64
42	Dwayne Haskins	QB	PIT	10.80	9.74	-1.06	5.62
43	Kirk Cousins	QB	LV	18.33	19.14	+0.80	5.46
44	Tyrod Taylor	QB	GB	5.32	4.51	-0.81	5.34
45	Matt Barkley	QB	JAX	6.85	2.32	-4.53	5.28
46	Deshaun Watson	QB	CLE	19.78	23.08	+3.30	5.19
47	Ben Roethlisberger	QB	PIT	18.76	17.81	-0.95	4.76
48	Drew Brees	QB	NO	18.89	17.46	-1.44	4.50
49	Gardner Minshew	QB	ARI	15.38	17.85	+2.47	4.36
50	Philip Rivers	QB	IND	15.73	14.35	-1.38	4.36
51	Tim Boyle	QB	NYG	3.77	-0.11	-3.88	3.88
52	Jarrett Stidham	QB	DEN	1.91	2.59	+0.68	1.68
53	AJ McCarron	QB	CIN	1.49	0.40	-1.08	1.08