Predicted vs. actual

A weekly backtest of the model. Per-position MAE, calibration by predicted-points decile, residual distribution, and rank fidelity.

Position

All QB RB WR TE

Format

PPR Standard

Season

2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020

QB MAE

6.51

491 weeks · +0.24 bias

RB MAE

5.95

1,138 weeks · +0.46 bias

WR MAE

5.35

1,954 weeks · +0.02 bias

TE MAE

4.08

910 weeks · +0.24 bias

Diagnostics — QB · 491 weeks

MAE

6.51

lower is better

RMSE

8.19

penalizes large misses

Calibration · predicted vs. actual by decile

Each point is a decile of predicted points. A well-calibrated model sits on the 45° line — points above mean the model under-predicts; below, it over-predicts.

Residual distribution · actual − predicted

How miss-magnitudes spread out. Mass left of zero = over-predicted weeks; mass right = under-predicted. Centered, narrow = good.

< −15

14 (3%)

−15 to −10

40 (8%)

−10 to −5

90 (18%)

−5 to −2

74 (15%)

−2 to 0

50 (10%)

0 to 2

45 (9%)

2 to 5

57 (12%)

Per-decile error decomposition

Rows are predicted-points deciles (D1 = bottom 10% of predictions, D10 = top 10%). Bias is the model's systematic over- or under-shoot within that bucket.

Decile	n	Pred (μ)	Actual (μ)	Bias	MAE	RMSE
D1	50	4.51	5.85	-1.34	5.86	7.67
D2	49	11.81	9.58	+2.23	6.99	8.85
D3	49	14.70	15.63	-0.93	5.49	7.06
D4	49	15.72	15.67	+0.05	5.33	6.64
D5	49	16.33	16.71	-0.38	7.15	8.64
D6	49	16.93	14.95	+1.98	7.52	9.21
D7	49	17.62	17.88	-0.26	6.42	7.91
D8	49	18.38	18.01	+0.37	7.00	8.92
D9	49	19.18	18.26	+0.91	6.40	7.65
D10	49	20.62	20.86	-0.24	6.95	8.90

No.	Player	Pos	Team	Pred ppg	Actual ppg	Δ ppg	MAE↓
1	Mitchell Trubisky	QB	TEN	17.70	1.62	-16.08	16.08
2	Ryan Fitzpatrick	QB	WAS	16.47	0.72	-15.75	15.75
3	Kyle Allen	QB	BUF	16.90	3.95	-12.95	12.95
4	Jameis Winston	QB	NYG	5.13	16.77	+11.64	11.64
5	Drew Lock	QB	SEA	18.21	8.65	-9.57	10.89
6	Mike Glennon	QB	MIA	13.66	5.15	-8.51	9.81
7	Cam Newton	QB	CAR	15.48	12.09	-3.39	9.58
8	C.J. Beathard	QB	DET	9.51	0.76	-8.75	8.75
9	Tyler Huntley	QB	BAL	6.23	11.81	+5.57	8.47
10	Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	16.80	20.04	+3.24	8.38
11	Brandon Allen	QB	NYG	11.03	2.77	-8.26	8.26
12	Sam Darnold	QB	SEA	15.31	12.93	-2.39	8.19
13	Tom Brady	QB	TB	17.78	22.04	+4.26	8.18
14	Lamar Jackson	QB	BAL	20.42	20.00	-0.42	7.81
15	Justin Herbert	QB	LAC	18.31	22.40	+4.08	7.62
16	Colt McCoy	QB	ARI	6.20	6.85	+0.65	7.51
17	Josh Allen	QB	BUF	19.08	23.68	+4.60	7.48
18	Jalen Hurts	QB	PHI	15.80	20.81	+5.01	7.30
19	Patrick Mahomes	QB	KC	19.46	21.27	+1.81	7.24
20	Gardner Minshew	QB	ARI	17.16	11.22	-5.94	7.23
21	Tyrod Taylor	QB	GB	17.28	13.62	-3.65	7.12
22	Matt Ryan	QB	IND	16.23	13.11	-3.12	7.05
23	Daniel Jones	QB	IND	15.09	15.23	+0.14	6.69
24	Tim Boyle	QB	NYG	2.75	6.08	+3.34	6.67
25	Baker Mayfield	QB	TB	19.09	12.92	-6.17	6.62
26	Aaron Rodgers	QB	PIT	18.93	20.83	+1.90	6.19
27	Mason Rudolph	QB	PIT	3.13	9.19	+6.06	6.16
28	Joe Flacco	QB	CIN	15.32	11.91	-3.41	6.08
29	Brett Rypien	QB	MIN	6.02	0.00	-6.02	6.02
30	Kyler Murray	QB	MIN	19.23	21.46	+2.24	5.99
31	Jacoby Brissett	QB	ARI	5.61	7.23	+1.62	5.94
32	Russell Wilson	QB	NYG	17.70	17.34	-0.36	5.85
33	Matthew Stafford	QB	LA	15.87	19.79	+3.92	5.85
34	Joe Burrow	QB	CIN	19.27	19.64	+0.37	5.80
35	Derek Carr	QB	NO	17.67	15.12	-2.55	5.69
36	Chase Daniel	QB	LAC	5.47	-0.20	-5.67	5.67
37	Jared Goff	QB	DET	14.41	13.89	-0.52	5.63
38	PJ Walker	QB	CLE	8.20	2.76	-5.45	5.45
39	Carson Wentz	QB	MIN	19.58	15.18	-4.41	5.41
40	Tua Tagovailoa	QB	ATL	15.32	13.92	-1.40	4.86
41	Kirk Cousins	QB	LV	17.72	18.77	+1.06	4.81
42	Ben Roethlisberger	QB	PIT	16.10	13.63	-2.47	4.80
43	Chad Henne	QB	KC	5.52	0.82	-4.70	4.70
44	Teddy Bridgewater	QB	DET	15.00	14.67	-0.33	4.54
45	Andy Dalton	QB	PHI	11.67	10.53	-1.14	4.13
46	Ryan Tannehill	QB	TEN	16.30	15.79	-0.51	3.93
47	Logan Woodside	QB	ARI	3.55	-0.15	-3.70	3.70
48	Jimmy Garoppolo	QB	LA	14.20	15.17	+0.97	3.66
49	Blaine Gabbert	QB	KC	2.36	0.33	-2.03	2.03
50	Nick Foles	QB	IND	14.92	16.80	+1.88	1.88
51	Chris Streveler	QB	NYJ	2.17	1.02	-1.15	1.29
52	Nick Mullens	QB	JAX	10.90	9.88	-1.02	1.02