Predicted vs. actual

A weekly backtest of the model. Per-position MAE, calibration by predicted-points decile, residual distribution, and rank fidelity.

Position

All QB RB WR TE

Format

PPR Standard

Season

2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020

QB MAE

6.25

531 weeks · -0.12 bias

RB MAE

5.53

1,143 weeks · +1.10 bias

WR MAE

5.15

1,901 weeks · +0.26 bias

TE MAE

3.95

947 weeks · +0.69 bias

Diagnostics — QB · 531 weeks

MAE

6.25

lower is better

RMSE

7.84

penalizes large misses

Calibration · predicted vs. actual by decile

Each point is a decile of predicted points. A well-calibrated model sits on the 45° line — points above mean the model under-predicts; below, it over-predicts.

Residual distribution · actual − predicted

How miss-magnitudes spread out. Mass left of zero = over-predicted weeks; mass right = under-predicted. Centered, narrow = good.

< −15

5 (1%)

−15 to −10

47 (9%)

−10 to −5

87 (16%)

−5 to −2

83 (16%)

−2 to 0

52 (10%)

0 to 2

55 (10%)

2 to 5

62 (12%)

Per-decile error decomposition

Rows are predicted-points deciles (D1 = bottom 10% of predictions, D10 = top 10%). Bias is the model's systematic over- or under-shoot within that bucket.

Decile	n	Pred (μ)	Actual (μ)	Bias	MAE	RMSE
D1	54	6.16	8.45	-2.30	7.09	8.24
D2	53	12.12	11.36	+0.76	5.59	6.89
D3	53	13.23	12.46	+0.77	5.85	7.46
D4	53	13.93	14.13	-0.20	6.42	8.00
D5	53	14.79	15.44	-0.66	6.62	8.27
D6	53	15.57	15.40	+0.17	5.36	7.25
D7	53	16.47	15.85	+0.62	7.19	8.59
D8	53	17.61	17.49	+0.13	5.92	7.79
D9	53	18.65	18.15	+0.49	6.81	8.80
D10	53	20.15	21.06	-0.91	5.58	6.79

No.	Player	Pos	Team	Pred ppg	Actual ppg	Δ ppg	MAE↓
1	Tim Boyle	QB	NYG	12.95	-2.88	-15.83	15.83
2	Chad Henne	QB	KC	12.05	-0.17	-12.21	12.21
3	Josh Johnson	QB	CIN	11.22	0.70	-10.52	10.52
4	Case Keenum	QB	CHI	10.27	0.16	-10.11	10.11
5	Marcus Mariota	QB	WAS	4.92	14.37	+9.45	9.88
6	Gardner Minshew	QB	ARI	13.58	7.36	-6.22	9.87
7	Jordan Love	QB	GB	12.48	2.92	-9.56	9.56
8	Tyrod Taylor	QB	GB	15.18	5.66	-9.52	9.52
9	Carson Wentz	QB	MIN	15.88	14.10	-1.78	9.22
10	Trey Lance	QB	LAC	15.32	6.23	-9.09	9.10
11	Joe Flacco	QB	CIN	7.86	9.67	+1.81	8.87
12	Teddy Bridgewater	QB	DET	14.97	7.60	-7.36	8.63
13	Jalen Hurts	QB	PHI	18.27	25.20	+6.94	8.61
14	Trevor Siemian	QB	ATL	13.44	5.08	-8.36	8.36
15	Justin Fields	QB	KC	15.86	19.73	+3.87	8.17
16	Lamar Jackson	QB	BAL	19.07	19.67	+0.60	7.75
17	PJ Walker	QB	CLE	9.50	6.52	-2.98	7.32
18	Joe Burrow	QB	CIN	15.26	21.92	+6.65	7.29
19	Jared Goff	QB	DET	12.72	16.72	+4.00	7.08
20	Trevor Lawrence	QB	JAX	15.82	17.39	+1.57	6.92
21	Mitchell Trubisky	QB	TEN	4.38	10.55	+6.17	6.82
22	Chris Streveler	QB	NYJ	2.24	9.00	+6.76	6.76
23	Patrick Mahomes	QB	KC	19.22	24.55	+5.34	6.65
24	Mike White	QB	CAR	14.77	14.14	-0.62	6.59
25	Cooper Rush	QB	BAL	11.08	7.08	-4.00	6.58
26	Matthew Stafford	QB	LA	18.61	12.04	-6.57	6.57
27	Zach Wilson	QB	NO	16.51	10.99	-5.52	6.40
28	Tua Tagovailoa	QB	ATL	14.43	17.76	+3.33	6.36
29	Sam Ehlinger	QB	DEN	2.62	8.90	+6.28	6.29
30	Baker Mayfield	QB	TB	14.07	9.75	-4.32	6.23
31	Russell Wilson	QB	NYG	16.97	15.36	-1.61	6.02
32	Tom Brady	QB	TB	19.07	15.98	-3.09	5.98
33	Josh Allen	QB	BUF	20.93	24.72	+3.79	5.93
34	Sam Darnold	QB	SEA	15.08	14.39	-0.69	5.79
35	Matt Ryan	QB	IND	13.62	12.94	-0.68	5.74
36	Taylor Heinicke	QB	LAC	16.81	12.88	-3.93	5.70
37	Kirk Cousins	QB	LV	17.01	17.15	+0.14	5.65
38	Geno Smith	QB	NYJ	13.52	17.88	+4.35	5.47
39	Colt McCoy	QB	ARI	13.04	8.20	-4.84	5.37
40	Daniel Jones	QB	IND	14.95	18.06	+3.12	5.32
41	Jacoby Brissett	QB	ARI	12.44	10.98	-1.46	5.29
42	Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	17.91	16.55	-1.36	5.27
43	Mac Jones	QB	SF	15.06	12.15	-2.91	5.10
44	Kyler Murray	QB	MIN	19.08	18.23	-0.85	4.98
45	Andy Dalton	QB	PHI	12.71	12.45	-0.26	4.90
46	Derek Carr	QB	NO	15.11	14.61	-0.50	4.90
47	Aaron Rodgers	QB	PIT	18.47	14.07	-4.40	4.87
48	Jameis Winston	QB	NYG	16.79	14.64	-2.15	4.81
49	Justin Herbert	QB	LAC	17.53	16.54	-0.98	4.71
50	Ryan Tannehill	QB	TEN	14.16	13.44	-0.72	4.68
51	Tyler Huntley	QB	BAL	13.00	10.00	-2.99	4.38
52	Davis Mills	QB	HOU	11.99	12.10	+0.11	4.27
53	C.J. Beathard	QB	DET	3.96	-0.25	-4.21	4.21
54	Jimmy Garoppolo	QB	LA	14.23	14.98	+0.75	3.93
55	John Wolford	QB	MIN	3.57	7.40	+3.83	3.83
56	Brandon Allen	QB	NYG	3.46	0.78	-2.68	2.68
57	Brian Hoyer	QB	LV	4.07	1.48	-2.59	2.59
58	Kyle Allen	QB	BUF	5.76	7.97	+2.21	2.21
59	Blaine Gabbert	QB	KC	4.91	5.16	+0.25	0.25