Predicted vs. actual

A weekly backtest of the model. Per-position MAE, calibration by predicted-points decile, residual distribution, and rank fidelity.

Position

All QB RB WR TE

Format

PPR Standard

Season

2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020

QB MAE

7.05

517 weeks · +0.76 bias

RB MAE

5.40

1,181 weeks · +0.78 bias

WR MAE

5.27

1,876 weeks · +0.93 bias

TE MAE

3.83

949 weeks · +0.62 bias

Diagnostics — QB · 517 weeks

MAE

7.05

lower is better

RMSE

8.70

penalizes large misses

Calibration · predicted vs. actual by decile

Each point is a decile of predicted points. A well-calibrated model sits on the 45° line — points above mean the model under-predicts; below, it over-predicts.

Residual distribution · actual − predicted

How miss-magnitudes spread out. Mass left of zero = over-predicted weeks; mass right = under-predicted. Centered, narrow = good.

< −15

20 (4%)

−15 to −10

66 (13%)

−10 to −5

79 (15%)

−5 to −2

69 (13%)

−2 to 0

53 (10%)

0 to 2

53 (10%)

2 to 5

45 (9%)

Per-decile error decomposition

Rows are predicted-points deciles (D1 = bottom 10% of predictions, D10 = top 10%). Bias is the model's systematic over- or under-shoot within that bucket.

Decile	n	Pred (μ)	Actual (μ)	Bias	MAE	RMSE
D1	52	4.91	10.51	-5.60	8.92	10.79
D2	52	11.04	11.96	-0.92	8.50	9.47
D3	52	12.90	12.41	+0.49	6.26	7.59
D4	52	13.65	9.61	+4.04	7.47	8.80
D5	52	14.31	12.34	+1.97	6.92	8.54
D6	52	15.34	14.61	+0.73	5.90	7.64
D7	52	16.23	15.24	+0.99	6.46	7.94
D8	51	16.95	15.44	+1.51	5.55	7.35
D9	51	19.05	16.35	+2.71	7.35	9.33
D10	51	22.00	20.27	+1.74	7.15	8.94

No.	Player	Pos	Team	Pred ppg	Actual ppg	Δ ppg	MAE↓
1	Aaron Rodgers	QB	PIT	17.07	0.00	-17.07	17.07
2	Sam Darnold	QB	SEA	17.37	2.34	-15.03	15.32
3	Jordan Love	QB	GB	4.61	18.77	+14.16	14.16
4	Teddy Bridgewater	QB	DET	13.40	-0.20	-13.60	13.60
5	Mike White	QB	CAR	13.72	0.34	-13.37	13.37
6	Jameis Winston	QB	NYG	14.33	1.99	-12.33	12.33
7	Daniel Jones	QB	IND	16.25	9.49	-6.76	11.66
8	Kyle Allen	QB	BUF	11.02	-0.22	-11.23	11.23
9	Davis Mills	QB	HOU	13.50	3.56	-9.94	11.11
10	Carson Wentz	QB	MIN	15.02	26.12	+11.10	11.10
11	Marcus Mariota	QB	WAS	16.96	5.88	-11.09	11.09
12	Andy Dalton	QB	PHI	11.11	11.82	+0.71	10.88
13	Malik Willis	QB	MIA	11.80	1.53	-10.28	10.28
14	Tyler Huntley	QB	BAL	14.74	5.12	-9.62	10.05
15	Brock Purdy	QB	SF	10.76	18.48	+7.72	9.17
16	Nick Mullens	QB	JAX	4.76	13.35	+8.59	9.08
17	Brett Rypien	QB	MIN	10.65	1.68	-8.97	8.97
18	Bailey Zappe	QB	NYJ	12.65	6.92	-5.73	8.62
19	Joshua Dobbs	QB	NE	13.33	15.38	+2.04	8.39
20	Justin Fields	QB	KC	22.45	17.71	-4.75	8.26
21	Deshaun Watson	QB	CLE	10.95	14.47	+3.52	8.05
22	Justin Herbert	QB	LAC	14.23	18.01	+3.78	7.96
23	Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	16.47	20.17	+3.70	7.96
24	Mac Jones	QB	SF	14.32	9.67	-4.65	7.94
25	Lamar Jackson	QB	BAL	21.87	20.70	-1.17	7.85
26	Cooper Rush	QB	BAL	8.31	0.47	-7.84	7.84
27	Joe Flacco	QB	CIN	12.46	20.17	+7.71	7.71
28	Joe Burrow	QB	CIN	18.12	14.72	-3.41	7.58
29	PJ Walker	QB	CLE	10.19	3.63	-6.56	6.98
30	Case Keenum	QB	CHI	3.28	4.87	+1.59	6.81
31	Mitchell Trubisky	QB	TEN	13.34	9.74	-3.60	6.79
32	Desmond Ridder	QB	GB	13.47	11.81	-1.66	6.72
33	Jeff Driskel	QB	WAS	7.45	13.94	+6.49	6.49
34	Tyrod Taylor	QB	GB	5.97	8.73	+2.77	6.49
35	Kirk Cousins	QB	LV	15.66	18.72	+3.05	6.38
36	Jimmy Garoppolo	QB	LA	14.38	9.16	-5.22	6.37
37	Geno Smith	QB	NYJ	16.85	15.15	-1.70	5.88
38	Jalen Hurts	QB	PHI	20.07	20.99	+0.92	5.87
39	Trevor Siemian	QB	ATL	2.88	6.38	+3.50	5.87
40	Ryan Tannehill	QB	TEN	12.93	8.89	-4.04	5.78
41	Baker Mayfield	QB	TB	12.90	15.98	+3.08	5.63
42	Josh Allen	QB	BUF	21.93	23.10	+1.17	5.53
43	Kenny Pickett	QB	CAR	13.71	9.18	-4.52	5.44
44	Jared Goff	QB	DET	16.34	17.01	+0.67	5.41
45	Derek Carr	QB	NO	16.19	14.51	-1.68	5.09
46	Tua Tagovailoa	QB	ATL	16.47	15.90	-0.56	5.08
47	Patrick Mahomes	QB	KC	20.17	17.51	-2.66	5.06
48	Jacoby Brissett	QB	ARI	16.47	11.43	-5.04	5.04
49	Gardner Minshew	QB	ARI	14.15	12.70	-1.45	4.92
50	Zach Wilson	QB	NO	12.84	9.99	-2.84	4.89
51	Trevor Lawrence	QB	JAX	16.43	16.41	-0.02	4.38
52	Matthew Stafford	QB	LA	14.30	16.21	+1.90	3.70
53	Russell Wilson	QB	NYG	15.16	17.13	+1.97	3.65
54	C.J. Beathard	QB	DET	2.66	3.58	+0.92	3.35
55	Nathan Peterman	QB	ATL	2.78	-0.40	-3.18	3.18
56	Kyler Murray	QB	MIN	17.23	18.30	+1.07	3.18
57	Taylor Heinicke	QB	LAC	14.78	13.20	-1.58	2.22
58	Jarrett Stidham	QB	DEN	14.94	13.32	-1.62	1.62