Predicted vs. actual

A weekly backtest of the model. Per-position MAE, calibration by predicted-points decile, residual distribution, and rank fidelity.

Position

All QB RB WR TE

Format

PPR Standard

Season

2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020

QB MAE

6.89

532 weeks · -0.17 bias

RB MAE

5.32

1,170 weeks · +0.15 bias

WR MAE

5.32

1,852 weeks · +0.08 bias

TE MAE

3.96

1,002 weeks · +0.09 bias

Diagnostics — QB · 532 weeks

MAE

6.89

lower is better

RMSE

8.73

penalizes large misses

Calibration · predicted vs. actual by decile

Each point is a decile of predicted points. A well-calibrated model sits on the 45° line — points above mean the model under-predicts; below, it over-predicts.

Residual distribution · actual − predicted

How miss-magnitudes spread out. Mass left of zero = over-predicted weeks; mass right = under-predicted. Centered, narrow = good.

< −15

12 (2%)

−15 to −10

51 (10%)

−10 to −5

92 (17%)

−5 to −2

77 (14%)

−2 to 0

57 (11%)

0 to 2

43 (8%)

2 to 5

Per-decile error decomposition

Rows are predicted-points deciles (D1 = bottom 10% of predictions, D10 = top 10%). Bias is the model's systematic over- or under-shoot within that bucket.

Decile	n	Pred (μ)	Actual (μ)	Bias	MAE	RMSE
D1	54	3.83	10.85	-7.01	8.89	11.53
D2	54	9.24	6.27	+2.97	7.46	9.19
D3	53	12.11	8.53	+3.58	6.50	7.76
D4	53	13.49	14.17	-0.68	7.08	8.76
D5	53	14.58	14.82	-0.24	6.63	8.83
D6	53	15.54	14.30	+1.24	6.59	8.18
D7	53	16.30	15.90	+0.40	6.19	7.75
D8	53	16.96	16.93	+0.04	5.55	6.57
D9	53	17.71	18.36	-0.65	6.20	7.65
D10	53	19.40	20.69	-1.30	7.78	10.00

No.	Player	Pos	Team	Pred ppg	Actual ppg	Δ ppg	MAE↓
1	Marcus Mariota	QB	WAS	4.28	22.82	+18.54	18.54
2	Sam Howell	QB	DAL	15.19	-0.84	-16.03	16.03
3	Sam Darnold	QB	SEA	3.90	18.06	+14.16	14.16
4	Jake Browning	QB	TB	13.12	-0.10	-13.21	13.21
5	Nick Mullens	QB	JAX	11.70	0.33	-11.37	11.37
6	Taylor Heinicke	QB	LAC	11.65	0.78	-10.87	10.87
7	Jarrett Stidham	QB	DEN	10.98	0.25	-10.73	10.73
8	Justin Fields	QB	KC	18.47	11.91	-6.55	10.61
9	Tyson Bagent	QB	CHI	10.51	-0.07	-10.57	10.57
10	Jameis Winston	QB	NYG	8.17	11.77	+3.60	10.20
11	Andy Dalton	QB	PHI	16.65	9.83	-6.83	9.51
12	Mitchell Trubisky	QB	TEN	11.03	1.91	-9.12	9.12
13	Kenny Pickett	QB	CAR	12.80	5.03	-7.77	8.81
14	Clayton Tune	QB	GB	8.27	-0.42	-8.69	8.69
15	Tyler Huntley	QB	BAL	3.52	12.13	+8.61	8.61
16	Kirk Cousins	QB	LV	15.55	12.60	-2.95	8.56
17	Desmond Ridder	QB	GB	13.75	5.26	-8.49	8.49
18	Josh Allen	QB	BUF	20.29	23.69	+3.40	8.43
19	Cooper Rush	QB	BAL	3.46	9.13	+5.67	8.28
20	Jared Goff	QB	DET	15.15	19.09	+3.94	8.23
21	Drew Lock	QB	SEA	8.46	11.45	+2.99	8.17
22	Joe Burrow	QB	CIN	15.96	21.93	+5.98	7.63
23	Lamar Jackson	QB	BAL	18.38	25.32	+6.93	7.52
24	Joshua Dobbs	QB	NE	16.70	15.42	-1.28	7.37
25	Malik Willis	QB	MIA	4.28	8.63	+4.35	7.18
26	Baker Mayfield	QB	TB	17.07	21.52	+4.44	7.11
27	Bryce Young	QB	CAR	13.08	13.93	+0.86	7.05
28	Tua Tagovailoa	QB	ATL	16.39	16.51	+0.12	6.73
29	Jimmy Garoppolo	QB	LA	13.18	19.86	+6.68	6.68
30	Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	18.12	14.56	-3.56	6.67
31	Brock Purdy	QB	SF	16.81	17.79	+0.98	6.62
32	Anthony Richardson	QB	IND	12.53	14.85	+2.33	6.56
33	Mac Jones	QB	SF	13.38	10.11	-3.27	6.49
34	Jalen Hurts	QB	PHI	19.08	21.01	+1.93	6.45
35	Daniel Jones	QB	IND	15.00	13.53	-1.47	6.16
36	Kyler Murray	QB	MIN	14.53	17.48	+2.96	6.04
37	Matthew Stafford	QB	LA	14.92	13.41	-1.51	5.96
38	Will Levis	QB	TEN	14.81	9.99	-4.81	5.70
39	Justin Herbert	QB	LAC	17.25	16.79	-0.46	5.54
40	Russell Wilson	QB	NYG	16.58	15.68	-0.90	5.36
41	Aidan O'Connell	QB	LV	11.35	10.39	-0.96	5.22
42	Tommy DeVito	QB	NE	11.93	6.74	-5.19	5.19
43	C.J. Stroud	QB	HOU	16.81	12.96	-3.85	5.04
44	Deshaun Watson	QB	CLE	15.82	10.96	-4.86	5.02
45	Geno Smith	QB	NYJ	13.99	15.65	+1.66	5.00
46	Mason Rudolph	QB	PIT	11.72	11.19	-0.54	4.80
47	Trevor Lawrence	QB	JAX	16.28	14.52	-1.76	4.75
48	Gardner Minshew	QB	ARI	12.22	9.63	-2.59	4.74
49	Jordan Love	QB	GB	16.65	15.59	-1.06	4.67
50	Joe Flacco	QB	CIN	14.03	14.69	+0.66	4.63
51	Derek Carr	QB	NO	14.39	15.09	+0.70	4.46
52	Dorian Thompson-Robinson	QB	CLE	6.86	2.63	-4.22	4.43
53	Patrick Mahomes	QB	KC	17.92	17.69	-0.23	4.16
54	Tyrod Taylor	QB	GB	11.15	10.03	-1.12	3.69
55	Bailey Zappe	QB	NYJ	10.57	7.00	-3.57	3.57
56	Jacoby Brissett	QB	ARI	9.54	6.46	-3.08	3.55
57	Mike White	QB	CAR	4.20	1.12	-3.08	3.08
58	Davis Mills	QB	HOU	4.13	2.40	-1.74	2.80
59	Tim Boyle	QB	NYG	5.83	4.65	-1.19	2.17
60	Kyle Trask	QB	ATL	1.64	-0.07	-1.71	1.71
61	Kyle Allen	QB	BUF	1.88	0.76	-1.12	1.12