A weekly backtest of the model. Mean absolute error per position, plus the players where we were most and least correct.
| No. | Player | Pos | Team | Pred ppg | Actual ppg | Δ ppg | MAE↓ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthony Richardson | QB | IND | 18.81 | 1.08 | -17.73 | 17.73 |
| 2 | Mitchell Trubisky |
| QB |
| TEN |
| 9.68 |
| 10.24 |
| +0.56 |
| 16.18 |
| 3 | Jimmy Garoppolo | QB | LA | 15.52 | -0.33 | -15.85 | 15.85 |
| 4 | Jarrett Stidham | QB | DEN | 14.05 | -0.10 | -14.15 | 14.15 |
| 5 | Zach Wilson | QB | NO | 13.84 | 0.34 | -13.49 | 13.49 |
| 6 | Nick Mullens | QB | JAX | 13.36 | -0.01 | -13.37 | 13.37 |
| 7 | Joshua Dobbs | QB | NE | 13.40 | 0.53 | -12.88 | 12.88 |
| 8 | Josh Allen | QB | BUF | 18.58 | 22.79 | +4.21 | 12.79 |
| 9 | Malik Willis | QB | MIA | 5.71 | 16.87 | +11.16 | 12.03 |
| 10 | Jake Browning | QB | TB | 14.59 | 9.75 | -4.85 | 11.23 |
| 11 | Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | 11.17 | 20.41 | +9.23 | 11.17 |
| 12 | Drew Lock | QB | SEA | 11.14 | 0.03 | -11.11 | 11.11 |
| 13 | Justin Fields | QB | KC | 14.40 | 16.96 | +2.56 | 11.02 |
| 14 | Trevor Lawrence | QB | JAX | 12.86 | 19.89 | +7.04 | 10.40 |
| 15 | Jameis Winston | QB | NYG | 10.09 | 14.43 | +4.34 | 10.35 |
| 16 | Gardner Minshew | QB | ARI | 10.21 | -0.08 | -10.29 | 10.29 |
| 17 | Matthew Stafford | QB | LA | 12.85 | 20.61 | +7.76 | 10.12 |
| 18 | Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | 10.96 | 18.46 | +7.50 | 10.09 |
| 19 | Jaxson Dart | QB | NYG | 12.73 | 17.26 | +4.52 | 9.96 |
| 20 | Bo Nix | QB | DEN | 12.58 | 17.93 | +5.36 | 9.32 |
| 21 | Joe Flacco | QB | CIN | 14.97 | 11.28 | -3.69 | 9.24 |
| 22 | Jacoby Brissett | QB | ARI | 10.53 | 16.25 | +5.71 | 9.19 |
| 23 | Brock Purdy | QB | SF | 14.05 | 19.71 | +5.66 | 9.12 |
| 24 | Daniel Jones | QB | IND | 16.57 | 17.42 | +0.85 | 8.85 |
| 25 | Tyson Bagent | QB | CHI | 9.91 | 1.29 | -8.62 | 8.62 |
| 26 | Lamar Jackson | QB | BAL | 19.07 | 16.53 | -2.54 | 8.49 |
| 27 | Tyrod Taylor | QB | GB | 10.96 | 9.91 | -1.05 | 8.45 |
| 28 | Justin Herbert | QB | LAC | 11.10 | 17.93 | +6.83 | 8.43 |
| 29 | Davis Mills | QB | HOU | 7.72 | 11.43 | +3.72 | 8.42 |
| 30 | Mac Jones | QB | SF | 11.41 | 11.82 | +0.42 | 8.37 |
| 31 | Sam Darnold | QB | SEA | 15.21 | 13.85 | -1.36 | 8.19 |
| 32 | Jared Goff | QB | DET | 11.88 | 17.47 | +5.59 | 8.15 |
| 33 | Riley Leonard | QB | IND | 5.31 | 6.20 | +0.89 | 8.12 |
| 34 | Russell Wilson | QB | NYG | 12.60 | 8.31 | -4.30 | 8.03 |
| 35 | Kenny Pickett | QB | CAR | 7.78 | -0.15 | -7.93 | 7.93 |
| 36 | Caleb Williams | QB | CHI | 12.58 | 18.72 | +6.14 | 7.82 |
| 37 | Kirk Cousins | QB | LV | 10.70 | 10.71 | +0.01 | 7.78 |
| 38 | Joe Burrow | QB | CIN | 16.81 | 16.81 | -0.00 | 7.61 |
| 39 | Jordan Love | QB | GB | 13.42 | 15.68 | +2.25 | 7.31 |
| 40 | Cooper Rush | QB | BAL | 7.74 | 0.43 | -7.31 | 7.31 |
| 41 | Baker Mayfield | QB | TB | 13.53 | 16.00 | +2.47 | 7.23 |
| 42 | Teddy Bridgewater | QB | DET | 8.14 | 0.96 | -7.18 | 7.18 |
| 43 | Dillon Gabriel | QB | CLE | 7.48 | 7.01 | -0.47 | 7.16 |
| 44 | Marcus Mariota | QB | WAS | 12.33 | 12.55 | +0.22 | 7.11 |
| 45 | Mason Rudolph | QB | PIT | 8.18 | 3.00 | -5.18 | 7.04 |
| 46 | J.J. McCarthy | QB | MIN | 12.64 | 12.54 | -0.10 | 6.82 |
| 47 | Drake Maye | QB | NE | 15.62 | 20.70 | +5.09 | 6.72 |
| 48 | Andy Dalton | QB | PHI | 9.09 | 2.38 | -6.71 | 6.71 |
| 49 | Michael Penix Jr. | QB | ATL | 7.44 | 13.36 | +5.92 | 6.66 |
| 50 | Geno Smith | QB | NYJ | 13.78 | 10.55 | -3.23 | 6.61 |
| 51 | Tua Tagovailoa | QB | ATL | 11.09 | 10.61 | -0.47 | 6.53 |
| 52 | Shedeur Sanders | QB | CLE | 10.86 | 10.61 | -0.25 | 6.51 |
| 53 | Kyle Allen | QB | BUF | 6.33 | -0.15 | -6.48 | 6.48 |
| 54 | Spencer Rattler | QB | NO | 9.04 | 11.02 | +1.98 | 6.41 |
| 55 | Max Brosmer | QB | MIN | 6.79 | 0.60 | -6.19 | 6.19 |
| 56 | Jalen Hurts | QB | PHI | 15.32 | 18.82 | +3.50 | 6.17 |
| 57 | Cam Ward | QB | TEN | 9.71 | 10.98 | +1.27 | 6.13 |
| 58 | Tyler Shough | QB | NO | 15.41 | 14.36 | -1.05 | 6.08 |
| 59 | Jayden Daniels | QB | WAS | 13.24 | 16.33 | +3.09 | 6.06 |
| 60 | Josh Johnson | QB | CIN | 11.00 | 8.13 | -2.87 | 6.00 |
| 61 | C.J. Stroud | QB | HOU | 11.08 | 14.90 | +3.82 | 5.86 |
| 62 | Tyler Huntley | QB | BAL | 11.47 | 8.03 | -3.45 | 5.73 |
| 63 | Trey Lance | QB | LAC | 8.96 | 3.38 | -5.57 | 5.64 |
| 64 | Brandon Allen | QB | NYG | 6.44 | 0.88 | -5.56 | 5.56 |
| 65 | Bryce Young | QB | CAR | 10.38 | 13.63 | +3.24 | 5.49 |
| 66 | Chris Oladokun | QB | KC | 7.16 | 3.73 | -3.43 | 5.45 |
| 67 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | PIT | 11.18 | 14.19 | +3.01 | 5.42 |
| 68 | Joe Milton III | QB | DAL | 7.98 | 2.58 | -5.40 | 5.40 |
| 69 | Kyler Murray | QB | MIN | 16.68 | 15.56 | -1.12 | 4.61 |
| 70 | Quinn Ewers | QB | MIA | 9.04 | 8.29 | -0.75 | 4.53 |
| 71 | Carson Wentz | QB | MIN | 11.80 | 14.07 | +2.26 | 4.51 |
| 72 | Philip Rivers | QB | IND | 6.13 | 10.55 | +4.42 | 4.42 |
| 73 | Tanner McKee | QB | PHI | 5.40 | 3.44 | -1.96 | 4.37 |
| 74 | Brady Cook | QB | NYJ | 7.95 | 5.69 | -2.26 | 3.93 |
| 75 | Jalen Milroe | QB | SEA | 3.33 | -0.53 | -3.86 | 3.86 |
| 76 | Brett Rypien | QB | MIN | 3.33 | 0.00 | -3.33 | 3.33 |
| 77 | Clayton Tune | QB | GB | 4.00 | 0.99 | -3.01 | 3.02 |
| 78 | Kedon Slovis | QB | ARI | 1.33 | -0.04 | -1.37 | 1.37 |
| 79 | Aidan O'Connell | QB | LV | 3.63 | 4.78 | +1.15 | 1.15 |