Predicted vs. actual

A weekly backtest of the model. Per-position MAE, calibration by predicted-points decile, residual distribution, and rank fidelity.

Position

All QB RB WR TE

Format

PPR Standard

Season

2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020

QB MAE

7.09

662 weeks · -0.01 bias

RB MAE

5.01

1,545 weeks · +0.89 bias

WR MAE

4.60

2,484 weeks · +0.72 bias

TE MAE

3.74

1,269 weeks · +0.28 bias

Diagnostics — QB · 662 weeks

MAE

7.09

lower is better

RMSE

8.78

penalizes large misses

Calibration · predicted vs. actual by decile

Each point is a decile of predicted points. A well-calibrated model sits on the 45° line — points above mean the model under-predicts; below, it over-predicts.

Residual distribution · actual − predicted

How miss-magnitudes spread out. Mass left of zero = over-predicted weeks; mass right = under-predicted. Centered, narrow = good.

< −15

16 (2%)

−15 to −10

79 (12%)

−10 to −5

98 (15%)

−5 to −2

91 (14%)

−2 to 0

54 (8%)

0 to 2

59 (9%)

2 to 5

81 (12%)

Per-decile error decomposition

Rows are predicted-points deciles (D1 = bottom 10% of predictions, D10 = top 10%). Bias is the model's systematic over- or under-shoot within that bucket.

Decile	n	Pred (μ)	Actual (μ)	Bias	MAE	RMSE
D1	67	3.87	5.97	-2.11	5.72	7.92
D2	67	8.02	8.50	-0.48	6.95	8.33
D3	66	11.34	11.01	+0.34	6.33	7.73
D4	66	12.67	13.28	-0.61	8.43	9.68
D5	66	13.60	14.60	-0.99	7.62	9.08
D6	66	14.36	13.13	+1.22	6.75	8.16
D7	66	15.09	17.23	-2.15	7.55	9.27
D8	66	16.06	17.08	-1.02	6.74	8.74
D9	66	17.98	16.43	+1.55	7.16	8.61
D10	66	21.05	16.86	+4.19	7.63	9.96

Model versions in this slice

xgboost_qb_20260516_025354QB:15

random_forest_qb_20260515_010958QB:272

xgboost_qb_20260516_031152QB:1209

random_forest_qb_20260515_112150QB:85

random_forest_qb_20260515_015004QB:306

No.	Player	Pos	Team	Pred ppg	Actual ppg	Δ ppg	MAE↓
1	Anthony Richardson	QB	IND	20.39	1.08	-19.31	19.32
2	Jimmy Garoppolo	QB	LA	15.52	-0.33	-15.85	15.85
3	Zach Wilson	QB	NO	13.84	0.34	-13.49	13.49
4	Gardner Minshew	QB	ARI	13.19	-0.08	-13.27	13.27
5	Drew Lock	QB	SEA	12.81	0.03	-12.77	12.77
6	Russell Wilson	QB	NYG	16.04	8.31	-7.74	12.37
7	Jameis Winston	QB	NYG	13.28	14.43	+1.14	11.71
8	Cooper Rush	QB	BAL	11.96	0.43	-11.53	11.53
9	Jaxson Dart	QB	NYG	12.73	17.26	+4.52	9.96
10	Mason Rudolph	QB	PIT	12.90	3.00	-9.90	9.90
11	Justin Fields	QB	KC	13.56	15.85	+2.29	9.88
12	Andy Dalton	QB	PHI	12.17	2.38	-9.79	9.79
13	Joe Flacco	QB	CIN	14.52	11.28	-3.23	9.69
14	Malik Willis	QB	MIA	12.39	12.79	+0.40	9.65
15	Aidan O'Connell	QB	LV	14.35	4.78	-9.57	9.57
16	Carson Wentz	QB	MIN	4.66	14.07	+9.41	9.41
17	Joshua Dobbs	QB	NE	9.36	0.53	-8.83	8.83
18	Davis Mills	QB	HOU	4.18	11.43	+7.25	8.63
19	Lamar Jackson	QB	BAL	21.59	16.53	-5.06	8.54
20	Mitchell Trubisky	QB	TEN	4.14	7.78	+3.64	8.42
21	Jake Browning	QB	TB	1.68	9.75	+8.07	8.39
22	Riley Leonard	QB	IND	5.31	6.20	+0.89	8.12
23	Jacoby Brissett	QB	ARI	11.98	16.25	+4.27	8.02
24	Mac Jones	QB	SF	11.23	11.82	+0.60	7.98
25	Matthew Stafford	QB	LA	13.69	20.61	+6.92	7.86
26	Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	14.14	18.46	+4.31	7.85
27	Tanner McKee	QB	PHI	10.45	3.44	-7.01	7.80
28	Sam Darnold	QB	SEA	18.41	13.85	-4.56	7.79
29	Brock Purdy	QB	SF	16.39	19.71	+3.32	7.62
30	Kirk Cousins	QB	LV	14.92	10.35	-4.57	7.55
31	Patrick Mahomes	QB	KC	16.70	20.41	+3.70	7.52
32	Josh Allen	QB	BUF	21.99	22.79	+0.80	7.47
33	Drake Maye	QB	NE	13.47	20.70	+7.23	7.36
34	Michael Penix Jr.	QB	ATL	7.72	13.36	+5.65	7.34
35	Josh Johnson	QB	CIN	3.79	8.13	+4.33	7.27
36	Kenny Pickett	QB	CAR	8.47	1.29	-7.18	7.21
37	Teddy Bridgewater	QB	DET	8.14	0.96	-7.18	7.18
38	Dillon Gabriel	QB	CLE	7.48	7.01	-0.47	7.16
39	Daniel Jones	QB	IND	11.93	17.42	+5.49	7.16
40	Tyrod Taylor	QB	GB	7.62	9.91	+2.29	7.13
41	Caleb Williams	QB	CHI	14.55	18.72	+4.17	7.08
42	Trevor Lawrence	QB	JAX	15.24	19.89	+4.65	7.02
43	Tua Tagovailoa	QB	ATL	15.17	11.48	-3.69	6.97
44	J.J. McCarthy	QB	MIN	12.64	12.54	-0.10	6.82
45	Joe Burrow	QB	CIN	19.09	16.81	-2.28	6.63
46	Geno Smith	QB	NYJ	14.47	11.59	-2.88	6.61
47	Shedeur Sanders	QB	CLE	10.86	10.61	-0.25	6.51
48	Tyler Huntley	QB	BAL	12.44	8.03	-4.41	6.49
49	Kyle Allen	QB	BUF	6.33	-0.15	-6.48	6.48
50	Marcus Mariota	QB	WAS	13.43	12.55	-0.88	6.36
51	Max Brosmer	QB	MIN	6.79	0.60	-6.19	6.19
52	Cam Ward	QB	TEN	9.71	10.98	+1.27	6.13
53	Bo Nix	QB	DEN	15.46	17.93	+2.47	6.11
54	Tyler Shough	QB	NO	15.41	14.36	-1.05	6.08
55	Justin Herbert	QB	LAC	14.75	17.93	+3.18	6.04
56	Jordan Love	QB	GB	16.99	15.68	-1.31	6.00
57	Bryce Young	QB	CAR	11.94	13.63	+1.69	5.98
58	Jared Goff	QB	DET	15.59	17.47	+1.88	5.89
59	Jalen Hurts	QB	PHI	19.51	18.82	-0.70	5.71
60	Baker Mayfield	QB	TB	19.58	16.00	-3.58	5.55
61	Chris Oladokun	QB	KC	7.16	3.73	-3.43	5.45
62	Joe Milton III	QB	DAL	7.98	2.58	-5.40	5.40
63	Aaron Rodgers	QB	PIT	12.77	14.19	+1.42	4.71
64	C.J. Stroud	QB	HOU	14.94	14.90	-0.04	4.57
65	Quinn Ewers	QB	MIA	9.04	8.29	-0.75	4.53
66	Philip Rivers	QB	IND	6.13	10.55	+4.42	4.42
67	Spencer Rattler	QB	NO	11.59	11.02	-0.57	4.35
68	Nick Mullens	QB	JAX	4.13	-0.01	-4.14	4.14
69	Brandon Allen	QB	NYG	4.95	0.88	-4.07	4.07
70	Jayden Daniels	QB	WAS	19.68	16.33	-3.35	3.95
71	Brady Cook	QB	NYJ	7.95	5.69	-2.26	3.93
72	Jalen Milroe	QB	SEA	3.33	-0.53	-3.86	3.86
73	Brett Rypien	QB	MIN	3.33	0.00	-3.33	3.33
74	Jarrett Stidham	QB	DEN	2.90	-0.10	-3.00	3.00
75	Trey Lance	QB	LAC	3.79	3.38	-0.40	2.45
76	Clayton Tune	QB	GB	2.60	0.99	-1.61	1.83
77	Kyler Murray	QB	MIN	15.24	15.56	+0.31	1.80
78	Kedon Slovis	QB	ARI	1.33	-0.04	-1.37	1.37
79	Tyson Bagent	QB	CHI	2.62	1.29	-1.33	1.33