Predicted vs. actual

A weekly backtest of the model. Per-position MAE, calibration by predicted-points decile, residual distribution, and rank fidelity.

Position

All QB RB WR TE

Format

PPR Standard

Season

2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020

QB MAE

6.92

499 weeks · -0.27 bias

RB MAE

5.67

1,118 weeks · +0.64 bias

WR MAE

5.52

1,688 weeks · -0.45 bias

TE MAE

4.34

947 weeks · +0.04 bias

Diagnostics — RB · 1,118 weeks

MAE

5.67

lower is better

RMSE

7.49

penalizes large misses

Calibration · predicted vs. actual by decile

Each point is a decile of predicted points. A well-calibrated model sits on the 45° line — points above mean the model under-predicts; below, it over-predicts.

Residual distribution · actual − predicted

How miss-magnitudes spread out. Mass left of zero = over-predicted weeks; mass right = under-predicted. Centered, narrow = good.

< −15

11 (1%)

−15 to −10

49 (4%)

−10 to −5

256 (23%)

−5 to −2

233 (21%)

−2 to 0

164 (15%)

0 to 2

96 (9%)

2 to 5

108 (10%)

Per-decile error decomposition

Rows are predicted-points deciles (D1 = bottom 10% of predictions, D10 = top 10%). Bias is the model's systematic over- or under-shoot within that bucket.

Decile	n	Pred (μ)	Actual (μ)	Bias	MAE	RMSE
D1	112	1.51	3.69	-2.18	3.63	6.60
D2	112	4.11	4.06	+0.05	3.97	5.66
D3	112	5.86	6.23	-0.37	5.21	6.85
D4	112	7.10	6.31	+0.78	4.87	5.78
D5	112	8.15	6.77	+1.38	5.66	7.34
D6	112	9.18	6.74	+2.44	5.76	6.76
D7	112	10.69	11.24	-0.55	5.75	7.32
D8	112	12.27	10.97	+1.29	6.43	8.12
D9	111	14.01	12.59	+1.42	6.84	8.38
D10	111	18.44	16.32	+2.12	8.63	10.81

No.	Player	Pos	Team	Pred ppg	Actual ppg	Δ ppg	MAE↓
1	Jonathan Williams	RB	WAS	15.73	2.30	-13.43	13.43
2	Mike Davis	RB	BAL	1.28	13.77	+12.48	12.64
3	Saquon Barkley	RB	PHI	18.85	7.70	-11.15	11.15
4	Myles Gaskin	RB	SEA	5.46	16.42	+10.96	10.96
5	Leonard Fournette	RB	BUF	20.72	11.08	-9.64	10.96
6	Derrick Henry	RB	BAL	13.60	20.82	+7.21	10.46
7	Kenyan Drake	RB	GB	21.31	12.81	-8.50	10.13
8	Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	19.38	25.19	+5.81	9.52
9	Jordan Howard	RB	NO	13.28	3.80	-9.48	9.48
10	Mark Ingram	RB	NO	14.14	5.29	-8.85	9.22
11	Jeff Wilson	RB	MIA	8.23	12.94	+4.70	9.17
12	Bo Scarbrough	RB	SEA	11.97	3.10	-8.87	8.87
13	Trey Edmunds	RB	PIT	8.76	0.00	-8.76	8.76
14	Darwin Thompson	RB	SEA	5.24	6.64	+1.40	8.56
15	David Montgomery	RB	HOU	11.13	17.65	+6.53	8.19
16	Le'Veon Bell	RB	TB	14.94	6.78	-8.16	8.16
17	Joe Mixon	RB	HOU	11.68	16.60	+4.92	7.98
18	Rashaad Penny	RB	PHI	9.10	1.13	-7.97	7.97
19	Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	22.39	30.13	+7.74	7.74
20	Dalvin Cook	RB	DAL	18.59	24.13	+5.54	7.53
21	Todd Gurley	RB	ATL	15.05	10.69	-4.36	7.46
22	Phillip Lindsay	RB	IND	12.93	6.00	-6.93	7.39
23	Nyheim Hines	RB	NO	5.21	12.07	+6.86	7.38
24	Jaylen Samuels	RB	HOU	9.14	1.82	-7.31	7.31
25	Matt Breida	RB	NYG	11.87	4.62	-7.24	7.24
26	T.J. Yeldon	RB	BUF	8.99	5.40	-3.59	7.18
27	Austin Ekeler	RB	WAS	13.96	16.53	+2.57	7.05
28	Rex Burkhead	RB	HOU	7.99	10.76	+2.77	7.01
29	Nick Chubb	RB	HOU	14.28	17.31	+3.02	6.72
30	Devonta Freeman	RB	BAL	12.05	7.20	-4.85	6.67
31	Adrian Peterson	RB	SEA	13.52	8.15	-5.37	6.65
32	Reggie Bonnafon	RB	WAS	4.47	8.35	+3.88	6.45
33	LeSean McCoy	RB	TB	9.96	3.52	-6.44	6.44
34	Patrick Laird	RB	TB	8.83	2.44	-6.39	6.39
35	Josh Jacobs	RB	GB	13.08	15.42	+2.34	6.29
36	Carlos Hyde	RB	JAX	12.70	8.49	-4.21	6.26
37	Tevin Coleman	RB	SF	8.34	2.12	-6.23	6.23
38	Alexander Mattison	RB	MIA	7.21	6.68	-0.52	6.22
39	Aaron Jones	RB	MIN	14.41	18.49	+4.09	6.12
40	David Johnson	RB	NO	12.01	14.96	+2.95	6.08
41	Melvin Gordon	RB	BAL	10.88	13.23	+2.35	6.01
42	Miles Sanders	RB	DAL	11.93	14.20	+2.27	5.98
43	Giovani Bernard	RB	TB	6.48	9.88	+3.40	5.94
44	Ezekiel Elliott	RB	LAC	18.06	14.91	-3.14	5.93
45	Darrell Henderson	RB	LA	6.99	8.69	+1.70	5.91
46	Justin Jackson	RB	DET	7.91	8.16	+0.26	5.87
47	Tony Pollard	RB	TEN	10.05	7.55	-2.50	5.85
48	Devin Singletary	RB	NYG	13.49	8.97	-4.51	5.81
49	Mike Boone	RB	CAR	7.30	1.49	-5.81	5.81
50	Kareem Hunt	RB	KC	11.30	13.66	+2.36	5.77
51	Dwayne Washington	RB	DEN	6.01	0.25	-5.76	5.76
52	Ito Smith	RB	DAL	8.52	4.09	-4.43	5.73
53	Chris Carson	RB	SEA	15.96	15.65	-0.31	5.65
54	Malcolm Brown	RB	LA	8.29	6.82	-1.48	5.62
55	J.D. McKissic	RB	WAS	9.28	12.03	+2.75	5.57
56	James Conner	RB	ARI	14.91	12.66	-2.25	5.57
57	Ronald Jones	RB	DAL	10.61	13.31	+2.70	5.44
58	James White	RB	NE	12.58	8.33	-4.25	5.41
59	Royce Freeman	RB	LAC	8.76	3.37	-5.39	5.39
60	Qadree Ollison	RB	PIT	5.69	0.30	-5.39	5.39
61	Jamaal Williams	RB	NO	9.77	9.08	-0.69	5.35
62	Dion Lewis	RB	NYG	8.00	3.69	-4.31	5.32
63	Sony Michel	RB	LAC	10.22	9.41	-0.81	5.28
64	Peyton Barber	RB	LV	7.72	3.59	-4.13	5.27
65	Kerryon Johnson	RB	PHI	10.16	5.13	-5.03	5.24
66	Wayne Gallman	RB	SEA	7.08	9.76	+2.68	5.24
67	Ty Johnson	RB	BUF	5.50	5.75	+0.25	5.21
68	Boston Scott	RB	PIT	9.22	5.97	-3.25	5.12
69	Dare Ogunbowale	RB	HOU	5.98	3.24	-2.73	5.04
70	Benny Snell	RB	PIT	6.30	4.99	-1.31	4.96
71	Chase Edmonds	RB	WAS	11.66	10.50	-1.16	4.92
72	Raheem Mostert	RB	LV	10.95	12.46	+1.51	4.84
73	Samaje Perine	RB	CIN	1.22	5.48	+4.26	4.81
74	Latavius Murray	RB	BUF	8.98	9.08	+0.10	4.74
75	Josh Adams	RB	NO	2.46	4.58	+2.12	4.60
76	Darrel Williams	RB	ARI	7.01	4.19	-2.81	4.12
77	Kalen Ballage	RB	PIT	8.80	8.54	-0.26	4.04
78	Troymaine Pope	RB	LAC	3.60	4.95	+1.35	3.96
79	Justice Hill	RB	BAL	4.87	1.18	-3.68	3.96
80	Duke Johnson	RB	BUF	8.00	7.67	-0.33	3.80
81	Gus Edwards	RB	LAC	7.18	8.01	+0.83	3.74
82	Brian Hill	RB	SF	7.03	5.96	-1.07	3.63
83	Devontae Booker	RB	NYG	2.69	5.57	+2.88	3.59
84	DeAndre Washington	RB	MIA	6.53	4.28	-2.25	3.56
85	Jordan Wilkins	RB	CLE	5.14	4.72	-0.42	3.46
86	Tarik Cohen	RB	CAR	9.28	5.83	-3.45	3.45
87	Cordarrelle Patterson	RB	PIT	5.27	4.34	-0.93	3.45
88	Travis Homer	RB	PIT	5.07	3.64	-1.43	3.43
89	Frank Gore	RB	NYJ	7.65	6.08	-1.57	3.42
90	Dontrell Hilliard	RB	TEN	4.61	1.20	-3.41	3.41
91	Ameer Abdullah	RB	IND	4.11	2.73	-1.38	3.36
92	C.J. Prosise	RB	TB	5.52	2.54	-2.98	3.28
93	Alex Armah	RB	WAS	3.88	0.64	-3.24	3.24
94	Tony Brooks-James	RB	ATL	3.61	0.40	-3.21	3.21
95	Marlon Mack	RB	ARI	11.62	8.60	-3.02	3.02
96	Jalen Richard	RB	LV	5.62	3.93	-1.69	2.76
97	D'Ernest Johnson	RB	NE	2.76	1.50	-1.26	2.57
98	Chris Thompson	RB	CHI	7.03	7.10	+0.07	2.35
99	Tyler Ervin	RB	GB	2.37	3.26	+0.90	2.29
100	Ryan Nall	RB	CHI	1.32	2.30	+0.98	2.21
101	Kenjon Barner	RB	TB	2.01	0.00	-2.01	2.01
102	Buddy Howell	RB	LA	1.88	1.54	-0.34	2.01
103	Corey Clement	RB	ARI	1.39	2.10	+0.71	1.79
104	Devine Ozigbo	RB	DET	1.18	2.22	+1.04	1.77
105	Dexter Williams	RB	CLE	2.36	0.80	-1.56	1.56
106	Trenton Cannon	RB	TEN	1.25	0.72	-0.53	1.41
107	Taiwan Jones	RB	NYG	1.37	0.00	-1.37	1.37
108	D.J. Foster	RB	ARI	1.28	0.32	-0.97	1.15
109	Cullen Gillaspia	RB	SEA	1.25	0.40	-0.85	1.05
110	Senorise Perry	RB	TEN	1.26	0.23	-1.03	1.03