Predicted vs. actual

A weekly backtest of the model. Per-position MAE, calibration by predicted-points decile, residual distribution, and rank fidelity.

Position

All QB RB WR TE

Format

PPR Standard

Season

2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020

QB MAE

6.51

491 weeks · +0.24 bias

RB MAE

5.95

1,138 weeks · +0.46 bias

WR MAE

5.35

1,954 weeks · +0.02 bias

TE MAE

4.08

910 weeks · +0.24 bias

Diagnostics — RB · 1,138 weeks

MAE

5.95

lower is better

RMSE

7.60

penalizes large misses

Calibration · predicted vs. actual by decile

Each point is a decile of predicted points. A well-calibrated model sits on the 45° line — points above mean the model under-predicts; below, it over-predicts.

Residual distribution · actual − predicted

How miss-magnitudes spread out. Mass left of zero = over-predicted weeks; mass right = under-predicted. Centered, narrow = good.

< −15

6 (1%)

−15 to −10

46 (4%)

−10 to −5

266 (23%)

−5 to −2

267 (23%)

−2 to 0

124 (11%)

0 to 2

84 (7%)

2 to 5

115

Per-decile error decomposition

Rows are predicted-points deciles (D1 = bottom 10% of predictions, D10 = top 10%). Bias is the model's systematic over- or under-shoot within that bucket.

Decile	n	Pred (μ)	Actual (μ)	Bias	MAE	RMSE
D1	114	2.58	3.68	-1.10	3.92	6.39
D2	114	4.89	4.88	+0.01	4.05	5.27
D3	114	6.35	8.42	-2.07	6.10	8.07
D4	114	7.63	5.71	+1.92	5.57	6.47
D5	114	8.55	6.98	+1.57	5.47	6.55
D6	114	9.46	8.77	+0.70	6.77	8.46
D7	114	10.79	9.64	+1.16	6.54	7.49
D8	114	12.74	11.30	+1.44	6.11	7.49
D9	113	14.47	15.25	-0.78	7.91	10.03
D10	113	17.26	15.46	+1.80	7.11	8.69

No.	Player	Pos	Team	Pred ppg	Actual ppg	Δ ppg	MAE↓
1	Derrick Henry	RB	BAL	14.65	24.16	+9.51	12.33
2	Raheem Mostert	RB	LV	12.75	2.00	-10.75	10.75
3	Rashaad Penny	RB	PHI	2.95	12.17	+9.22	10.74
4	Cordarrelle Patterson	RB	PIT	5.64	15.31	+9.68	10.31
5	Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	14.41	21.95	+7.53	9.89
6	Leonard Fournette	RB	BUF	8.82	18.26	+9.44	9.84
7	Kalen Ballage	RB	PIT	9.76	0.80	-8.96	8.96
8	Saquon Barkley	RB	PHI	16.77	11.43	-5.34	8.82
9	James Conner	RB	ARI	13.69	17.52	+3.83	8.60
10	Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	21.40	18.21	-3.19	8.51
11	Kareem Hunt	RB	KC	13.21	13.75	+0.54	8.17
12	Dontrell Hilliard	RB	TEN	1.23	9.09	+7.86	8.15
13	David Johnson	RB	NO	14.31	6.25	-8.05	8.05
14	D'Andre Swift	RB	CHI	10.63	16.07	+5.44	7.98
15	Austin Ekeler	RB	WAS	15.17	21.49	+6.32	7.95
16	Duke Johnson	RB	BUF	9.19	11.82	+2.63	7.93
17	Myles Gaskin	RB	SEA	14.88	10.21	-4.67	7.89
18	Joe Mixon	RB	HOU	14.71	17.99	+3.29	7.83
19	James Robinson	RB	NO	16.81	12.42	-4.39	7.59
20	Joshua Kelley	RB	TEN	9.67	2.13	-7.55	7.55
21	Jeff Wilson	RB	MIA	10.69	6.44	-4.25	7.47
22	Benny Snell	RB	PIT	8.23	0.82	-7.41	7.41
23	Jordan Wilkins	RB	CLE	7.38	0.00	-7.38	7.38
24	Wayne Gallman	RB	SEA	8.18	0.82	-7.36	7.36
25	Ronald Jones	RB	DAL	12.13	5.28	-6.85	7.35
26	Kenyan Drake	RB	GB	13.67	8.86	-4.80	7.31
27	Rex Burkhead	RB	HOU	10.22	6.69	-3.53	7.20
28	Nick Chubb	RB	HOU	14.37	15.38	+1.01	7.20
29	James White	RB	NE	8.14	10.40	+2.26	7.19
30	Justin Jackson	RB	DET	9.71	6.16	-3.55	7.18
31	Alexander Mattison	RB	MIA	7.80	7.87	+0.07	7.17
32	Salvon Ahmed	RB	IND	10.63	3.51	-7.12	7.12
33	Dalvin Cook	RB	DAL	18.11	15.87	-2.24	6.94
34	Darrel Williams	RB	ARI	6.79	11.53	+4.74	6.87
35	D'Ernest Johnson	RB	NE	7.02	8.01	+0.98	6.83
36	Darrell Henderson	RB	LA	8.77	13.62	+4.85	6.81
37	Brian Hill	RB	SF	6.75	0.00	-6.75	6.75
38	J.D. McKissic	RB	WAS	10.57	11.63	+1.06	6.70
39	Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	20.86	18.05	-2.80	6.70
40	Aaron Jones	RB	MIN	14.51	15.27	+0.76	6.55
41	Miles Sanders	RB	DAL	15.49	9.77	-5.72	6.48
42	Boston Scott	RB	PIT	6.97	8.96	+2.00	6.44
43	Damien Harris	RB	BUF	9.11	14.01	+4.90	6.41
44	Giovani Bernard	RB	TB	9.91	6.37	-3.54	6.40
45	Antonio Gibson	RB	NE	11.56	14.32	+2.75	6.33
46	Nyheim Hines	RB	NO	10.57	6.86	-3.71	6.27
47	D'Onta Foreman	RB	CLE	4.45	10.43	+5.98	6.22
48	Matt Breida	RB	NYG	6.13	6.92	+0.79	6.22
49	Sony Michel	RB	LAC	8.47	8.65	+0.18	5.98
50	AJ Dillon	RB	CAR	6.92	10.92	+4.00	5.97
51	David Montgomery	RB	HOU	16.13	15.00	-1.13	5.91
52	J.J. Taylor	RB	HOU	5.64	3.70	-1.94	5.86
53	Devonta Freeman	RB	BAL	12.01	9.19	-2.83	5.80
54	DeeJay Dallas	RB	JAX	8.19	3.54	-4.65	5.75
55	Devin Singletary	RB	NYG	9.44	11.64	+2.19	5.68
56	Jordan Howard	RB	NO	3.49	8.93	+5.44	5.63
57	Ezekiel Elliott	RB	LAC	15.18	14.83	-0.36	5.63
58	Carlos Hyde	RB	JAX	8.54	3.95	-4.59	5.56
59	Mike Davis	RB	BAL	12.98	7.58	-5.40	5.52
60	Chase Edmonds	RB	WAS	11.44	11.94	+0.50	5.44
61	Phillip Lindsay	RB	IND	8.72	3.52	-5.20	5.28
62	Mark Ingram	RB	NO	8.44	7.80	-0.64	5.26
63	Zack Moss	RB	CIN	10.57	8.09	-2.47	5.20
64	Corey Clement	RB	ARI	4.86	2.33	-2.53	5.16
65	Jamaal Williams	RB	NO	9.44	9.23	-0.21	5.02
66	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	RB	KC	13.77	11.76	-2.01	4.99
67	Jerick McKinnon	RB	KC	7.44	4.17	-3.27	4.94
68	Ty Johnson	RB	BUF	6.11	7.80	+1.69	4.88
69	Melvin Gordon	RB	BAL	12.22	12.19	-0.02	4.85
70	La'Mical Perine	RB	PIT	6.37	1.55	-4.82	4.82
71	Devontae Booker	RB	NYG	7.16	8.44	+1.28	4.76
72	Malcolm Brown	RB	LA	8.17	3.75	-4.42	4.76
73	Dare Ogunbowale	RB	HOU	5.01	3.85	-1.15	4.75
74	Trayveon Williams	RB	CLE	6.33	1.63	-4.70	4.70
75	Alex Collins	RB	SEA	7.24	6.25	-0.99	4.68
76	Le'Veon Bell	RB	TB	8.79	4.76	-4.02	4.53
77	Latavius Murray	RB	BUF	9.09	6.92	-2.17	4.49
78	Ke'Shawn Vaughn	RB	SF	4.58	6.10	+1.52	4.46
79	Peyton Barber	RB	LV	4.46	5.54	+1.08	4.44
80	Samaje Perine	RB	CIN	7.52	5.55	-1.97	4.33
81	Buddy Howell	RB	LA	4.52	0.22	-4.30	4.30
82	Rodney Smith	RB	DET	5.64	9.80	+4.16	4.16
83	Ameer Abdullah	RB	IND	3.43	5.59	+2.16	4.11
84	Royce Freeman	RB	LAC	5.69	2.88	-2.81	3.96
85	Tony Pollard	RB	TEN	8.80	10.84	+2.04	3.93
86	Trenton Cannon	RB	TEN	3.97	0.04	-3.93	3.93
87	Josh Jacobs	RB	GB	12.62	15.07	+2.44	3.84
88	Travis Homer	RB	PIT	5.09	4.41	-0.67	3.63
89	Artavis Pierce	RB	CLE	3.61	0.00	-3.61	3.61
90	JaMycal Hasty	RB	MIA	7.39	4.68	-2.71	3.47
91	Jonathan Williams	RB	WAS	5.58	4.14	-1.44	3.32
92	Patrick Laird	RB	TB	4.87	1.70	-3.17	3.17
93	Chris Carson	RB	SEA	13.09	12.03	-1.07	3.16
94	Mike Boone	RB	CAR	4.90	2.57	-2.33	3.12
95	Cam Akers	RB	SEA	7.41	4.30	-3.11	3.11
96	Jeremy McNichols	RB	WAS	5.83	5.66	-0.17	3.10
97	Jaylen Samuels	RB	HOU	4.02	1.77	-2.25	2.93
98	Alex Armah	RB	WAS	2.91	1.02	-1.89	2.86
99	Anthony McFarland	RB	PIT	3.88	1.20	-2.68	2.68
100	Tevin Coleman	RB	SF	4.86	4.68	-0.17	2.61
101	Austin Walter	RB	LV	4.58	4.75	+0.17	2.50
102	Cullen Gillaspia	RB	SEA	2.44	0.00	-2.44	2.44
103	Adrian Peterson	RB	SEA	8.08	5.67	-2.41	2.41
104	Darrynton Evans	RB	CHI	6.14	3.80	-2.34	2.34
105	Jalen Richard	RB	LV	4.71	2.58	-2.13	2.31
106	Jakob Johnson	RB	HOU	2.08	1.38	-0.70	1.78
107	Dwayne Washington	RB	DEN	2.24	0.60	-1.64	1.64
108	Ryan Nall	RB	CHI	1.89	0.36	-1.53	1.53
109	Taiwan Jones	RB	NYG	1.13	0.00	-1.13	1.13
110	Kenjon Barner	RB	TB	1.08	0.00	-1.08	1.08
111	Nathan Cottrell	RB	JAX	1.16	0.10	-1.06	1.06
112	Jonathan Ward	RB	BAL	1.20	1.08	-0.13	1.02
113	Ito Smith	RB	DAL	5.87	6.40	+0.53	0.53
114	Jason Huntley	RB	IND	4.88	5.10	+0.22	0.22
115	Reggie Bonnafon	RB	WAS	3.44	3.60	+0.16	0.16