Predicted vs. actual

A weekly backtest of the model. Per-position MAE, calibration by predicted-points decile, residual distribution, and rank fidelity.

Position

All QB RB WR TE

Format

PPR Standard

Season

2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020

QB MAE

6.25

531 weeks · -0.12 bias

RB MAE

5.53

1,143 weeks · +1.10 bias

WR MAE

5.15

1,901 weeks · +0.26 bias

TE MAE

3.95

947 weeks · +0.69 bias

Diagnostics — RB · 1,143 weeks

MAE

5.53

lower is better

RMSE

7.11

penalizes large misses

Calibration · predicted vs. actual by decile

Each point is a decile of predicted points. A well-calibrated model sits on the 45° line — points above mean the model under-predicts; below, it over-predicts.

Residual distribution · actual − predicted

How miss-magnitudes spread out. Mass left of zero = over-predicted weeks; mass right = under-predicted. Centered, narrow = good.

< −15

3 (0%)

−15 to −10

39 (3%)

−10 to −5

298 (26%)

−5 to −2

285 (25%)

−2 to 0

142 (12%)

0 to 2

93 (8%)

2 to 5

Per-decile error decomposition

Rows are predicted-points deciles (D1 = bottom 10% of predictions, D10 = top 10%). Bias is the model's systematic over- or under-shoot within that bucket.

Decile	n	Pred (μ)	Actual (μ)	Bias	MAE	RMSE
D1	115	2.43	2.90	-0.46	3.16	5.43
D2	115	4.37	2.81	+1.56	3.88	4.81
D3	115	5.82	5.65	+0.17	4.50	5.98
D4	114	7.47	5.00	+2.47	5.18	6.02
D5	114	8.42	5.70	+2.72	5.67	6.64
D6	114	9.62	8.42	+1.20	6.41	7.77
D7	114	11.26	11.59	-0.32	6.56	8.03
D8	114	12.85	11.71	+1.14	6.75	8.33
D9	114	14.28	13.54	+0.74	6.00	8.08
D10	114	17.95	16.17	+1.78	7.25	8.78

No.	Player	Pos	Team	Pred ppg	Actual ppg	Δ ppg	MAE↓
1	Tevin Coleman	RB	SF	5.83	11.00	+5.17	10.74
2	Josh Jacobs	RB	GB	13.06	19.31	+6.26	9.84
3	Jordan Howard	RB	NO	9.81	0.10	-9.71	9.71
4	Jerick McKinnon	RB	KC	3.06	11.55	+8.49	9.04
5	Duke Johnson	RB	BUF	9.42	0.40	-9.02	9.02
6	Mike Davis	RB	BAL	9.66	0.84	-8.82	8.82
7	Austin Ekeler	RB	WAS	14.66	21.92	+7.27	8.77
8	Tony Pollard	RB	TEN	10.89	15.55	+4.66	8.67
9	Saquon Barkley	RB	PHI	11.09	17.75	+6.66	8.37
10	Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	17.70	14.11	-3.59	8.05
11	Najee Harris	RB	LAC	20.31	13.26	-7.05	8.00
12	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	RB	KC	13.79	9.83	-3.96	7.99
13	Darrel Williams	RB	ARI	10.52	4.42	-6.09	7.78
14	James Robinson	RB	NO	12.53	8.76	-3.77	7.68
15	D'Onta Foreman	RB	CLE	7.87	8.61	+0.74	7.61
16	D'Ernest Johnson	RB	NE	8.07	0.60	-7.47	7.47
17	Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	10.49	14.65	+4.16	7.28
18	Dontrell Hilliard	RB	TEN	11.98	6.43	-5.55	7.24
19	Kareem Hunt	RB	KC	13.31	7.46	-5.85	7.10
20	Jamaal Williams	RB	NO	9.02	13.29	+4.27	7.10
21	Myles Gaskin	RB	SEA	11.79	4.70	-7.08	7.08
22	Ty'Son Williams	RB	ARI	8.53	1.50	-7.03	7.03
23	Kenyan Drake	RB	GB	9.20	7.67	-1.52	6.96
24	Miles Sanders	RB	DAL	11.05	12.75	+1.70	6.88
25	Rashaad Penny	RB	PHI	10.14	10.44	+0.30	6.84
26	Derrick Henry	RB	BAL	20.00	18.92	-1.08	6.81
27	Aaron Jones	RB	MIN	13.31	14.62	+1.31	6.71
28	Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	19.71	20.48	+0.78	6.65
29	David Montgomery	RB	HOU	15.18	11.11	-4.07	6.57
30	Brandon Bolden	RB	LV	8.18	2.10	-6.08	6.53
31	Joe Mixon	RB	HOU	14.26	17.11	+2.84	6.46
32	Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	15.18	13.31	-1.87	6.44
33	Javonte Williams	RB	DAL	13.83	10.50	-3.33	6.43
34	Mark Ingram	RB	NO	11.37	5.01	-6.36	6.36
35	Zack Moss	RB	CIN	9.10	4.76	-4.34	6.35
36	Deon Jackson	RB	NYG	4.57	7.04	+2.47	6.26
37	D'Andre Swift	RB	CHI	14.13	13.65	-0.48	6.16
38	Michael Carter	RB	TEN	12.21	7.88	-4.33	6.04
39	Darrell Henderson	RB	LA	13.33	7.35	-5.98	5.98
40	Leonard Fournette	RB	BUF	15.09	14.13	-0.95	5.96
41	Dalvin Cook	RB	DAL	14.38	13.99	-0.39	5.95
42	Samaje Perine	RB	CIN	7.33	8.88	+1.55	5.93
43	Sony Michel	RB	LAC	8.23	2.51	-5.72	5.72
44	Latavius Murray	RB	BUF	6.59	12.21	+5.62	5.69
45	Khalil Herbert	RB	NYJ	6.51	9.06	+2.55	5.68
46	Matt Breida	RB	NYG	8.37	3.19	-5.18	5.66
47	Ty Johnson	RB	BUF	7.67	3.57	-4.11	5.62
48	Cordarrelle Patterson	RB	PIT	11.99	11.90	-0.09	5.60
49	Damien Harris	RB	BUF	12.14	8.26	-3.88	5.58
50	Damien Williams	RB	ARI	5.77	0.20	-5.57	5.57
51	AJ Dillon	RB	CAR	9.93	9.86	-0.07	5.42
52	Nick Chubb	RB	HOU	15.89	16.55	+0.66	5.38
53	Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	8.49	6.41	-2.08	5.36
54	James Conner	RB	ARI	13.48	15.40	+1.92	5.28
55	Elijah Mitchell	RB	NE	11.01	8.72	-2.29	5.24
56	Justin Jackson	RB	DET	8.64	3.65	-4.99	5.23
57	Melvin Gordon	RB	BAL	11.43	8.71	-2.72	5.20
58	Jeff Wilson	RB	MIA	8.45	9.49	+1.04	5.17
59	Boston Scott	RB	PIT	7.17	3.08	-4.09	5.11
60	Chase Edmonds	RB	WAS	9.51	5.71	-3.80	5.02
61	Ameer Abdullah	RB	IND	7.67	3.58	-4.09	5.00
62	JaMycal Hasty	RB	MIA	4.90	5.22	+0.33	4.98
63	Marlon Mack	RB	ARI	4.95	3.77	-1.18	4.93
64	Antonio Gibson	RB	NE	13.58	11.06	-2.52	4.93
65	Alexander Mattison	RB	MIA	7.78	5.20	-2.58	4.92
66	Salvon Ahmed	RB	IND	5.61	2.37	-3.25	4.90
67	Devin Singletary	RB	NYG	11.27	11.12	-0.15	4.86
68	Nyheim Hines	RB	NO	8.46	5.31	-3.15	4.79
69	Eno Benjamin	RB	NO	5.36	6.89	+1.53	4.75
70	David Johnson	RB	NO	7.00	2.27	-4.72	4.72
71	Craig Reynolds	RB	NE	8.52	5.13	-3.39	4.68
72	Benny Snell	RB	PIT	4.46	2.08	-2.38	4.47
73	Kenneth Gainwell	RB	TB	7.40	5.17	-2.23	4.24
74	Rex Burkhead	RB	HOU	7.33	4.76	-2.57	4.22
75	Qadree Ollison	RB	PIT	4.11	0.00	-4.11	4.11
76	Godwin Igwebuike	RB	PIT	4.31	0.34	-3.97	3.97
77	Jaret Patterson	RB	LAC	5.32	3.90	-1.42	3.96
78	Ezekiel Elliott	RB	LAC	14.73	12.39	-2.34	3.90
79	Giovani Bernard	RB	TB	5.01	1.18	-3.83	3.83
80	Anthony McFarland	RB	PIT	2.29	6.10	+3.81	3.81
81	Kene Nwangwu	RB	NYJ	4.47	0.82	-3.65	3.72
82	Ronald Jones	RB	DAL	5.06	3.24	-1.82	3.71
83	DeeJay Dallas	RB	JAX	4.42	3.08	-1.34	3.55
84	J.D. McKissic	RB	WAS	9.22	6.97	-2.25	3.51
85	Jake Funk	RB	JAX	3.49	0.00	-3.49	3.49
86	Corey Clement	RB	ARI	4.00	4.38	+0.38	3.45
87	Chris Evans	RB	CIN	3.88	1.28	-2.60	3.40
88	Travis Homer	RB	PIT	5.33	4.31	-1.02	3.36
89	Kylin Hill	RB	GB	4.01	0.70	-3.31	3.31
90	Malcolm Brown	RB	LA	5.91	3.26	-2.66	3.26
91	Ke'Shawn Vaughn	RB	SF	4.96	1.70	-3.26	3.26
92	Gary Brightwell	RB	CIN	3.04	1.93	-1.10	3.17
93	Dare Ogunbowale	RB	HOU	3.80	3.37	-0.42	3.10
94	Jonathan Williams	RB	WAS	5.17	2.91	-2.26	3.09
95	Trey Sermon	RB	PIT	4.75	1.90	-2.85	2.85
96	Patrick Taylor	RB	SF	3.72	0.97	-2.75	2.75
97	Joshua Kelley	RB	TEN	5.10	5.40	+0.30	2.69
98	Trayveon Williams	RB	CLE	3.30	1.14	-2.15	2.68
99	Phillip Lindsay	RB	IND	5.75	4.93	-0.82	2.65
100	Royce Freeman	RB	LAC	7.33	4.75	-2.58	2.58
101	Demetric Felton	RB	CHI	2.84	0.40	-2.44	2.44
102	Mike Boone	RB	CAR	2.15	3.60	+1.45	2.42
103	Dwayne Washington	RB	DEN	3.09	0.79	-2.30	2.30
104	Jonathan Ward	RB	BAL	3.52	1.30	-2.22	2.22
105	J.J. Taylor	RB	HOU	4.92	2.70	-2.22	2.22
106	Adam Prentice	RB	DEN	2.89	0.80	-2.09	2.09
107	Trenton Cannon	RB	TEN	1.83	0.00	-1.83	1.83
108	Avery Williams	RB	NYJ	1.04	2.12	+1.08	1.54
109	Jakob Johnson	RB	HOU	2.02	0.60	-1.42	1.42
110	Larry Rountree III	RB	HOU	4.00	2.65	-1.35	1.36
111	Taiwan Jones	RB	NYG	1.10	0.00	-1.10	1.10
112	Cullen Gillaspia	RB	SEA	1.09	0.00	-1.09	1.09
113	Tony Jones	RB	ARI	5.61	4.60	-1.01	1.01