Predicted vs. actual

A weekly backtest of the model. Per-position MAE, calibration by predicted-points decile, residual distribution, and rank fidelity.

Position

All QB RB WR TE

Format

PPR Standard

Season

2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020

QB MAE

7.05

517 weeks · +0.76 bias

RB MAE

5.40

1,181 weeks · +0.78 bias

WR MAE

5.27

1,876 weeks · +0.93 bias

TE MAE

3.83

949 weeks · +0.62 bias

Diagnostics — RB · 1,181 weeks

MAE

5.40

lower is better

RMSE

7.01

penalizes large misses

Calibration · predicted vs. actual by decile

Each point is a decile of predicted points. A well-calibrated model sits on the 45° line — points above mean the model under-predicts; below, it over-predicts.

Residual distribution · actual − predicted

How miss-magnitudes spread out. Mass left of zero = over-predicted weeks; mass right = under-predicted. Centered, narrow = good.

< −15

1 (0%)

−15 to −10

66 (6%)

−10 to −5

253 (21%)

−5 to −2

271 (23%)

−2 to 0

153 (13%)

0 to 2

112 (9%)

2 to 5

127

Per-decile error decomposition

Rows are predicted-points deciles (D1 = bottom 10% of predictions, D10 = top 10%). Bias is the model's systematic over- or under-shoot within that bucket.

Decile	n	Pred (μ)	Actual (μ)	Bias	MAE	RMSE
D1	119	1.86	4.07	-2.21	3.86	6.22
D2	118	3.82	2.74	+1.08	3.00	3.75
D3	118	5.21	3.54	+1.68	3.90	4.54
D4	118	6.67	8.67	-1.99	6.37	8.73
D5	118	8.21	7.45	+0.76	4.94	6.01
D6	118	9.56	8.37	+1.19	5.20	6.53
D7	118	11.49	9.86	+1.63	6.40	7.98
D8	118	12.99	10.27	+2.72	7.03	8.51
D9	118	14.46	12.30	+2.16	6.31	7.40
D10	118	16.86	16.04	+0.82	6.99	8.52

No.	Player	Pos	Team	Pred ppg	Actual ppg	Δ ppg	MAE↓
1	Kyren Williams	RB	LA	6.61	21.25	+14.64	14.64
2	Rashaad Penny	RB	PHI	13.37	1.60	-11.77	11.77
3	Dalvin Cook	RB	DAL	14.20	2.82	-11.38	11.38
4	Leonard Fournette	RB	BUF	13.24	2.00	-11.24	11.24
5	Jerome Ford	RB	WAS	2.09	12.42	+10.33	10.38
6	Cordarrelle Patterson	RB	PIT	12.78	3.07	-9.70	9.70
7	Breece Hall	RB	NYJ	13.04	17.09	+4.04	9.33
8	Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	17.62	24.46	+6.84	8.42
9	Bam Knight	RB	ARI	9.83	1.55	-8.28	8.28
10	Raheem Mostert	RB	LV	11.85	17.85	+6.00	7.89
11	Miles Sanders	RB	DAL	12.79	5.64	-7.15	7.80
12	Zack Moss	RB	CIN	6.61	12.11	+5.51	7.55
13	Austin Ekeler	RB	WAS	17.04	13.24	-3.80	7.47
14	Dameon Pierce	RB	PHI	13.12	5.91	-7.21	7.41
15	James Cook	RB	BUF	7.14	13.69	+6.55	7.35
16	Latavius Murray	RB	BUF	12.60	5.78	-6.82	7.24
17	James Conner	RB	ARI	15.37	15.50	+0.13	7.17
18	Isiah Pacheco	RB	DET	9.03	15.28	+6.25	7.11
19	Rachaad White	RB	WAS	10.04	15.76	+5.72	7.06
20	Khalil Herbert	RB	NYJ	11.98	9.38	-2.61	6.99
21	Travis Etienne	RB	NO	13.75	16.61	+2.86	6.91
22	Derrick Henry	RB	BAL	17.42	14.51	-2.91	6.88
23	Malik Davis	RB	DAL	6.82	0.00	-6.82	6.82
24	Jerick McKinnon	RB	KC	11.25	7.03	-4.22	6.61
25	Saquon Barkley	RB	PHI	16.13	15.94	-0.19	6.56
26	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	RB	KC	8.77	4.67	-4.09	6.41
27	JaMycal Hasty	RB	MIA	6.39	0.00	-6.39	6.39
28	Tyler Allgeier	RB	ARI	11.69	8.09	-3.60	6.34
29	Josh Jacobs	RB	GB	16.88	13.93	-2.95	6.33
30	Elijah Mitchell	RB	NE	8.37	4.32	-4.05	6.18
31	Devin Singletary	RB	NYG	13.32	10.15	-3.18	6.16
32	Najee Harris	RB	LAC	13.35	11.50	-1.85	6.11
33	Aaron Jones	RB	MIN	15.15	12.26	-2.89	6.07
34	Javonte Williams	RB	DAL	14.38	11.20	-3.18	6.06
35	Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	14.82	12.14	-2.68	5.95
36	Michael Carter	RB	TEN	9.28	3.92	-5.36	5.95
37	Gus Edwards	RB	LAC	10.52	11.00	+0.48	5.94
38	Kenyan Drake	RB	GB	7.47	1.55	-5.92	5.92
39	Kenneth Walker III	RB	KC	12.32	13.29	+0.98	5.82
40	Jamaal Williams	RB	NO	10.16	4.80	-5.36	5.80
41	Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	15.82	17.92	+2.10	5.79
42	Ty Chandler	RB	NO	1.01	6.31	+5.30	5.70
43	Damien Harris	RB	BUF	8.47	3.17	-5.31	5.60
44	Travis Homer	RB	PIT	5.59	0.00	-5.59	5.59
45	Royce Freeman	RB	LAC	7.99	3.96	-4.03	5.58
46	Joe Mixon	RB	HOU	16.97	15.71	-1.26	5.45
47	Tony Pollard	RB	TEN	14.45	13.09	-1.35	5.36
48	Joshua Kelley	RB	TEN	7.29	3.63	-3.66	5.33
49	Craig Reynolds	RB	NE	7.36	2.63	-4.73	5.32
50	Deon Jackson	RB	NYG	7.29	2.00	-5.29	5.29
51	Jeff Wilson	RB	MIA	9.82	4.59	-5.23	5.27
52	Zamir White	RB	LV	3.34	5.68	+2.34	5.25
53	D'Andre Swift	RB	CHI	13.86	12.66	-1.20	5.24
54	Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	14.77	15.64	+0.87	5.22
55	Brian Robinson	RB	ATL	9.48	13.21	+3.73	5.17
56	Ezekiel Elliott	RB	LAC	12.45	10.34	-2.12	5.15
57	Tony Jones	RB	ARI	7.36	5.37	-1.99	5.12
58	Nick Chubb	RB	HOU	14.56	11.55	-3.01	5.07
59	James Robinson	RB	NO	5.93	1.00	-4.93	4.93
60	Rico Dowdle	RB	PIT	1.00	5.72	+4.72	4.83
61	David Montgomery	RB	HOU	14.62	14.98	+0.35	4.82
62	Jordan Mason	RB	MIN	5.39	2.79	-2.59	4.64
63	Jonathan Williams	RB	WAS	4.23	-0.20	-4.43	4.43
64	Jaylen Warren	RB	PIT	7.35	11.55	+4.20	4.38
65	Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	8.33	10.74	+2.41	4.26
66	DeeJay Dallas	RB	JAX	4.96	0.72	-4.24	4.24
67	Alexander Mattison	RB	MIA	5.92	8.32	+2.40	3.99
68	Ty Johnson	RB	BUF	5.20	4.05	-1.15	3.98
69	Kareem Hunt	RB	KC	8.46	7.90	-0.56	3.93
70	Chase Edmonds	RB	WAS	6.08	3.27	-2.81	3.93
71	Justice Hill	RB	BAL	5.43	6.83	+1.40	3.92
72	Darrell Henderson	RB	LA	8.45	10.88	+2.42	3.91
73	Darrynton Evans	RB	CHI	6.56	5.00	-1.56	3.85
74	Matt Breida	RB	NYG	5.16	3.13	-2.03	3.84
75	Salvon Ahmed	RB	IND	3.86	6.13	+2.26	3.83
76	Julius Chestnut	RB	TEN	3.81	0.00	-3.81	3.81
77	Mike Boone	RB	CAR	5.42	1.63	-3.79	3.79
78	Samaje Perine	RB	CIN	8.84	7.14	-1.70	3.70
79	Dare Ogunbowale	RB	HOU	4.47	0.81	-3.66	3.66
80	Melvin Gordon	RB	BAL	8.52	4.92	-3.59	3.59
81	Dwayne Washington	RB	DEN	3.50	0.00	-3.50	3.50
82	D'Onta Foreman	RB	CLE	8.28	7.28	-1.00	3.43
83	Kevin Harris	RB	NE	4.21	5.33	+1.12	3.37
84	Keaontay Ingram	RB	KC	4.53	2.00	-2.53	3.34
85	Ronnie Rivers	RB	LA	4.79	2.23	-2.56	3.32
86	Antonio Gibson	RB	NE	9.78	7.96	-1.81	3.29
87	Raheem Blackshear	RB	NYJ	5.17	1.90	-3.27	3.27
88	AJ Dillon	RB	CAR	10.20	7.84	-2.36	3.17
89	Brandon Bolden	RB	LV	2.90	2.22	-0.68	2.87
90	Ke'Shawn Vaughn	RB	SF	4.06	1.28	-2.78	2.78
91	Pierre Strong	RB	GB	4.19	2.75	-1.43	2.77
92	Jonathan Ward	RB	BAL	3.29	0.55	-2.74	2.74
93	Boston Scott	RB	PIT	4.12	1.48	-2.63	2.63
94	Kenneth Gainwell	RB	TB	5.29	6.09	+0.80	2.51
95	Adam Prentice	RB	DEN	2.86	0.40	-2.46	2.46
96	Cam Akers	RB	SEA	9.03	6.67	-2.35	2.46
97	D'Ernest Johnson	RB	NE	2.31	2.32	+0.01	2.24
98	Isaiah Spiller	RB	LV	4.17	2.11	-2.06	2.18
99	Patrick Taylor	RB	SF	3.78	2.73	-1.06	2.11
100	Trayveon Williams	RB	CLE	2.95	0.93	-2.02	2.02
101	Tyrion Davis-Price	RB	PHI	3.96	2.10	-1.86	1.86
102	Godwin Igwebuike	RB	PIT	1.80	0.00	-1.80	1.80
103	Jakob Johnson	RB	HOU	1.72	0.28	-1.44	1.58
104	Gary Brightwell	RB	CIN	2.75	2.90	+0.15	1.50
105	Ameer Abdullah	RB	IND	2.90	2.56	-0.34	1.28
106	Kene Nwangwu	RB	NYJ	1.29	0.16	-1.13	1.13
107	J.K. Dobbins	RB	DEN	12.71	11.70	-1.01	1.01
108	Chris Evans	RB	CIN	0.68	0.70	+0.02	0.85
109	Devine Ozigbo	RB	DET	2.36	2.30	-0.06	0.06