Predicted vs. actual

A weekly backtest of the model. Per-position MAE, calibration by predicted-points decile, residual distribution, and rank fidelity.

Position

All QB RB WR TE

Format

PPR Standard

Season

2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020

QB MAE

6.89

532 weeks · -0.17 bias

RB MAE

5.32

1,170 weeks · +0.15 bias

WR MAE

5.32

1,852 weeks · +0.08 bias

TE MAE

3.96

1,002 weeks · +0.09 bias

Diagnostics — RB · 1,170 weeks

MAE

5.32

lower is better

RMSE

6.95

penalizes large misses

Calibration · predicted vs. actual by decile

Each point is a decile of predicted points. A well-calibrated model sits on the 45° line — points above mean the model under-predicts; below, it over-predicts.

Residual distribution · actual − predicted

How miss-magnitudes spread out. Mass left of zero = over-predicted weeks; mass right = under-predicted. Centered, narrow = good.

< −15

1 (0%)

−15 to −10

38 (3%)

−10 to −5

223 (19%)

−5 to −2

291 (25%)

−2 to 0

173 (15%)

0 to 2

97 (8%)

2 to 5

123

Per-decile error decomposition

Rows are predicted-points deciles (D1 = bottom 10% of predictions, D10 = top 10%). Bias is the model's systematic over- or under-shoot within that bucket.

Decile	n	Pred (μ)	Actual (μ)	Bias	MAE	RMSE
D1	117	2.17	1.98	+0.20	2.32	3.38
D2	117	4.10	5.04	-0.94	4.63	6.74
D3	117	5.14	5.59	-0.46	4.81	6.34
D4	117	6.81	5.54	+1.27	4.65	5.49
D5	117	7.87	6.38	+1.49	4.71	5.76
D6	117	9.52	8.15	+1.37	6.01	7.53
D7	117	11.54	11.38	+0.16	6.72	8.20
D8	117	12.94	13.43	-0.49	5.73	7.20
D9	117	13.92	15.35	-1.43	6.97	8.83
D10	117	15.79	15.46	+0.33	6.65	8.33

No.	Player	Pos	Team	Pred ppg	Actual ppg	Δ ppg	MAE↓
1	Chase Brown	RB	CIN	5.02	15.94	+10.92	11.16
2	Saquon Barkley	RB	PHI	15.24	21.43	+6.19	9.53
3	De'Von Achane	RB	MIA	10.50	17.64	+7.14	9.48
4	Khalil Herbert	RB	NYJ	11.38	2.86	-8.52	9.12
5	Raheem Mostert	RB	LV	14.34	5.45	-8.88	9.02
6	Joe Mixon	RB	HOU	14.51	17.77	+3.26	8.92
7	Derrick Henry	RB	BAL	12.57	19.99	+7.42	8.76
8	Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	13.05	17.48	+4.43	7.98
9	Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	DET	14.08	21.35	+7.27	7.98
10	Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	11.89	16.11	+4.22	7.86
11	Dameon Pierce	RB	PHI	7.06	4.35	-2.71	7.58
12	Travis Etienne	RB	NO	16.24	8.68	-7.56	7.56
13	Darrynton Evans	RB	CHI	7.60	0.30	-7.30	7.30
14	Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	19.20	11.95	-7.25	7.25
15	Bijan Robinson	RB	ATL	14.45	20.10	+5.65	7.14
16	Jordan Mason	RB	MIN	4.35	9.58	+5.23	7.10
17	Gus Edwards	RB	LAC	10.65	5.45	-5.20	7.09
18	Keaton Mitchell	RB	LAC	8.71	1.70	-7.01	7.01
19	James Cook	RB	BUF	14.24	16.67	+2.43	6.78
20	Breece Hall	RB	NYJ	14.16	15.06	+0.90	6.77
21	James Conner	RB	ARI	13.42	15.86	+2.44	6.74
22	Tony Jones	RB	ARI	4.84	11.50	+6.66	6.66
23	D'Onta Foreman	RB	CLE	10.22	3.57	-6.65	6.65
24	Zach Charbonnet	RB	SEA	8.21	10.99	+2.78	6.61
25	Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	13.82	11.73	-2.10	6.57
26	Isiah Pacheco	RB	DET	12.79	8.13	-4.66	6.55
27	Nick Chubb	RB	HOU	12.81	7.91	-4.90	6.53
28	Ameer Abdullah	RB	IND	3.66	8.35	+4.69	6.47
29	Kenneth Walker III	RB	KC	11.44	16.47	+5.03	6.39
30	Jerome Ford	RB	WAS	11.36	9.57	-1.79	6.29
31	Devin Singletary	RB	NYG	10.77	6.84	-3.92	6.14
32	Rico Dowdle	RB	PIT	6.52	12.36	+5.85	6.14
33	Tyjae Spears	RB	TEN	8.95	9.47	+0.52	6.05
34	Jaylen Warren	RB	PIT	12.97	8.27	-4.70	6.02
35	Ezekiel Elliott	RB	LAC	9.26	3.99	-5.27	5.95
36	Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	17.16	18.95	+1.79	5.91
37	Tank Bigsby	RB	PHI	4.19	8.06	+3.88	5.89
38	Zack Moss	RB	CIN	11.74	10.24	-1.51	5.83
39	Ty Chandler	RB	NO	7.69	2.03	-5.66	5.77
40	Kareem Hunt	RB	KC	7.70	11.53	+3.84	5.77
41	Rachaad White	RB	WAS	15.00	13.31	-1.70	5.75
42	Josh Jacobs	RB	GB	13.90	17.24	+3.34	5.68
43	Miles Sanders	RB	DAL	8.15	7.03	-1.12	5.66
44	Emari Demercado	RB	KC	7.93	4.21	-3.72	5.50
45	D'Andre Swift	RB	CHI	13.06	12.16	-0.90	5.41
46	Joshua Kelley	RB	TEN	5.56	0.20	-5.36	5.36
47	Javonte Williams	RB	DAL	10.55	9.29	-1.26	5.24
48	Michael Carter	RB	TEN	6.92	11.93	+5.02	5.02
49	Keaontay Ingram	RB	KC	5.01	0.00	-5.01	5.01
50	Kyren Williams	RB	LA	16.03	17.01	+0.98	4.97
51	Chris Rodriguez Jr.	RB	JAX	4.87	4.50	-0.37	4.97
52	Tony Pollard	RB	TEN	13.08	12.81	-0.26	4.88
53	Justice Hill	RB	BAL	7.64	8.47	+0.83	4.85
54	Tyler Goodson	RB	ATL	5.57	3.17	-2.40	4.85
55	Austin Ekeler	RB	WAS	12.77	10.96	-1.81	4.77
56	Brian Robinson	RB	ATL	13.90	11.41	-2.48	4.68
57	Jeff Wilson	RB	MIA	6.12	1.51	-4.61	4.61
58	Gary Brightwell	RB	CIN	4.54	0.00	-4.54	4.54
59	Aaron Jones	RB	MIN	13.01	14.34	+1.33	4.46
60	Cordarrelle Patterson	RB	PIT	6.43	3.14	-3.29	4.41
61	Jamaal Williams	RB	NO	6.34	2.65	-3.69	4.35
62	Sean Tucker	RB	TB	4.18	4.04	-0.14	4.27
63	Emanuel Wilson	RB	SEA	4.47	5.65	+1.18	4.23
64	Kenneth Gainwell	RB	TB	7.63	3.68	-3.95	4.18
65	David Montgomery	RB	HOU	13.63	15.84	+2.21	4.18
66	Tyler Allgeier	RB	ARI	8.46	6.25	-2.21	4.15
67	Patrick Taylor	RB	SF	5.07	4.26	-0.81	4.11
68	Alexander Mattison	RB	MIA	10.30	9.22	-1.08	4.07
69	Najee Harris	RB	LAC	12.00	12.04	+0.04	4.04
70	Craig Reynolds	RB	NE	5.99	2.61	-3.38	4.01
71	Trey Sermon	RB	PIT	5.57	3.59	-1.98	3.93
72	Jeremy McNichols	RB	WAS	1.14	4.41	+3.27	3.82
73	Ronnie Rivers	RB	LA	4.15	3.05	-1.10	3.77
74	Roschon Johnson	RB	CHI	7.47	5.95	-1.52	3.75
75	Cam Akers	RB	SEA	7.33	6.22	-1.11	3.63
76	Jaleel McLaughlin	RB	DEN	8.96	6.08	-2.89	3.61
77	Ty Johnson	RB	BUF	4.55	5.39	+0.84	3.57
78	Samaje Perine	RB	CIN	7.62	4.91	-2.71	3.53
79	Raheem Blackshear	RB	NYJ	3.90	0.50	-3.40	3.51
80	Antonio Gibson	RB	NE	8.06	6.08	-1.98	3.40
81	Dare Ogunbowale	RB	HOU	3.24	3.50	+0.26	3.17
82	Pierre Strong	RB	GB	4.44	2.71	-1.73	3.15
83	Ke'Shawn Vaughn	RB	SF	3.45	0.40	-3.05	3.05
84	Trayveon Williams	RB	CLE	3.05	0.00	-3.05	3.05
85	Zamir White	RB	LV	6.22	3.66	-2.56	2.95
86	Kene Nwangwu	RB	NYJ	2.13	3.00	+0.88	2.92
87	Dalvin Cook	RB	DAL	4.78	2.00	-2.78	2.78
88	D'Ernest Johnson	RB	NE	4.58	2.99	-1.59	2.75
89	Jordan Mims	RB	TEN	1.18	3.26	+2.09	2.64
90	Chris Brooks	RB	GB	4.86	4.01	-0.85	2.50
91	DeeJay Dallas	RB	JAX	2.33	1.33	-1.00	2.32
92	Kendre Miller	RB	NO	6.50	4.85	-1.65	2.29
93	Hunter Luepke	RB	DAL	2.54	1.92	-0.62	1.77
94	Eric Gray	RB	NYG	2.57	1.38	-1.19	1.75
95	Adam Prentice	RB	DEN	1.73	0.00	-1.73	1.73
96	Travis Homer	RB	PIT	1.82	0.80	-1.02	1.58
97	Jakob Johnson	RB	HOU	1.49	0.00	-1.49	1.49
98	Deuce Vaughn	RB	DEN	3.83	2.36	-1.47	1.47
99	Mike Boone	RB	CAR	2.58	1.18	-1.40	1.45
100	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	RB	KC	5.83	5.00	-0.83	0.83
101	Jonathan Ward	RB	BAL	1.11	0.43	-0.68	0.77
102	Ben VanSumeren	RB	BUF	1.05	0.33	-0.72	0.72