Predicted vs. actual

A weekly backtest of the model. Per-position MAE, calibration by predicted-points decile, residual distribution, and rank fidelity.

Position

All QB RB WR TE

Format

PPR Standard

Season

2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020

QB MAE

7.09

662 weeks · -0.01 bias

RB MAE

5.01

1,545 weeks · +0.89 bias

WR MAE

4.60

2,484 weeks · +0.72 bias

TE MAE

3.74

1,269 weeks · +0.28 bias

Diagnostics — RB · 1,545 weeks

MAE

5.01

lower is better

RMSE

6.67

penalizes large misses

Calibration · predicted vs. actual by decile

Each point is a decile of predicted points. A well-calibrated model sits on the 45° line — points above mean the model under-predicts; below, it over-predicts.

Residual distribution · actual − predicted

How miss-magnitudes spread out. Mass left of zero = over-predicted weeks; mass right = under-predicted. Centered, narrow = good.

< −15

3 (0%)

−15 to −10

57 (4%)

−10 to −5

307 (20%)

−5 to −2

412 (27%)

−2 to 0

260 (17%)

0 to 2

155 (10%)

2 to 5

124

Per-decile error decomposition

Rows are predicted-points deciles (D1 = bottom 10% of predictions, D10 = top 10%). Bias is the model's systematic over- or under-shoot within that bucket.

Decile	n	Pred (μ)	Actual (μ)	Bias	MAE	RMSE
D1	155	1.74	0.89	+0.84	1.56	1.88
D2	155	3.48	1.90	+1.57	2.87	3.27
D3	155	4.69	3.67	+1.02	3.73	4.63
D4	155	5.47	6.20	-0.72	4.89	6.58
D5	155	6.92	5.16	+1.76	5.09	6.30
D6	154	8.61	8.00	+0.61	5.17	6.64
D7	154	10.42	9.20	+1.22	6.12	7.15
D8	154	12.91	10.69	+2.22	6.66	8.06
D9	154	14.68	14.60	+0.07	6.60	8.47
D10	154	17.19	16.86	+0.32	7.46	9.72

Model versions in this slice

random_forest_rb_20260515_112354RB:153

xgboost_rb_20260516_025356RB:22

random_forest_rb_20260515_011130RB:204

xgboost_rb_20260516_031153RB:2216

random_forest_rb_20260515_015032RB:646

No.	Player	Pos	Team	Pred ppg	Actual ppg	Δ ppg	MAE↓
1	Elijah Mitchell	RB	NE	11.76	0.00	-11.76	11.76
2	Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	14.10	24.51	+10.40	11.05
3	Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	14.92	21.31	+6.39	9.83
4	Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	DET	17.17	21.58	+4.41	9.82
5	Brian Robinson	RB	ATL	13.02	3.68	-9.35	9.35
6	Bijan Robinson	RB	ATL	17.28	21.81	+4.53	8.96
7	Najee Harris	RB	LAC	12.50	3.87	-8.64	8.64
8	James Cook	RB	BUF	13.88	17.78	+3.89	8.43
9	Kenneth Gainwell	RB	TB	5.61	13.02	+7.41	8.38
10	TreVeyon Henderson	RB	NE	12.69	12.13	-0.56	8.13
11	Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	12.84	12.77	-0.06	7.98
12	Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	16.96	9.15	-7.81	7.81
13	Isaac Guerendo	RB	SF	7.76	0.00	-7.76	7.76
14	Cam Skattebo	RB	NYG	15.66	15.96	+0.30	7.64
15	Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	13.78	8.36	-5.42	7.52
16	RJ Harvey	RB	DEN	9.92	12.15	+2.23	7.18
17	Rico Dowdle	RB	PIT	12.96	12.72	-0.23	7.14
18	Kenneth Walker III	RB	KC	15.72	11.29	-4.43	7.13
19	Travis Etienne	RB	NO	9.09	14.94	+5.85	7.11
20	Josh Jacobs	RB	GB	17.39	15.81	-1.58	6.98
21	Tank Bigsby	RB	PHI	9.48	3.59	-5.89	6.96
22	Kimani Vidal	RB	LAC	5.24	9.07	+3.83	6.81
23	Jerome Ford	RB	WAS	10.06	3.35	-6.71	6.79
24	Derrick Henry	RB	BAL	16.57	16.44	-0.13	6.79
25	Justice Hill	RB	BAL	9.13	6.52	-2.61	6.56
26	Ashton Jeanty	RB	LV	14.62	14.42	-0.21	6.46
27	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	RB	NYG	11.68	10.72	-0.96	6.29
28	Javonte Williams	RB	DAL	9.97	15.18	+5.21	6.20
29	Devin Singletary	RB	NYG	9.14	6.40	-2.74	6.20
30	Breece Hall	RB	NYJ	15.47	12.98	-2.49	6.18
31	Ray Davis	RB	BUF	7.50	3.77	-3.73	6.12
32	David Montgomery	RB	HOU	13.51	9.82	-3.69	6.06
33	Kareem Hunt	RB	KC	11.87	8.55	-3.32	6.03
34	Jawhar Jordan	RB	HOU	10.57	7.42	-3.15	5.92
35	Jordan Mason	RB	MIN	12.57	8.06	-4.52	5.92
36	Roschon Johnson	RB	CHI	6.19	0.28	-5.91	5.91
37	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	RB	WAS	9.46	8.25	-1.21	5.80
38	Chase Edmonds	RB	WAS	5.75	0.00	-5.75	5.75
39	Saquon Barkley	RB	PHI	17.11	14.52	-2.59	5.70
40	Audric Estimé	RB	NO	5.68	9.62	+3.94	5.68
41	Aaron Jones	RB	MIN	15.32	9.89	-5.43	5.64
42	Rachaad White	RB	WAS	11.39	8.41	-2.98	5.61
43	Sean Tucker	RB	TB	7.24	5.38	-1.86	5.60
44	Chase Brown	RB	CIN	14.62	16.62	+2.00	5.58
45	Jaleel McLaughlin	RB	DEN	9.45	3.92	-5.53	5.53
46	Zach Charbonnet	RB	SEA	8.36	11.34	+2.98	5.51
47	Omarion Hampton	RB	LAC	14.07	15.08	+1.00	5.35
48	Quinshon Judkins	RB	CLE	11.38	12.13	+0.75	5.28
49	Emanuel Wilson	RB	SEA	5.78	5.56	-0.22	5.27
50	Woody Marks	RB	HOU	9.08	9.07	-0.01	5.25
51	Nate Carter	RB	ATL	7.24	2.00	-5.24	5.24
52	James Conner	RB	ARI	16.29	11.10	-5.19	5.19
53	D'Andre Swift	RB	CHI	14.36	14.29	-0.07	5.19
54	Dylan Sampson	RB	CLE	6.80	5.84	-0.96	5.16
55	AJ Dillon	RB	CAR	6.65	1.52	-5.13	5.13
56	Raheem Mostert	RB	LV	7.28	2.45	-4.83	5.04
57	Jaylen Warren	RB	PIT	9.23	13.57	+4.34	5.00
58	Kyle Monangai	RB	CHI	8.18	8.63	+0.45	4.94
59	Bam Knight	RB	ARI	5.53	7.74	+2.22	4.86
60	Michael Carter	RB	TEN	10.94	7.62	-3.33	4.85
61	Brittain Brown	RB	CHI	4.33	4.85	+0.51	4.83
62	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	RB	KC	6.89	2.10	-4.79	4.79
63	Nyheim Hines	RB	NO	4.68	-0.05	-4.73	4.73
64	Jordan Mims	RB	TEN	4.69	0.00	-4.69	4.69
65	Tony Pollard	RB	TEN	12.91	10.93	-1.98	4.60
66	Blake Corum	RB	LA	4.30	7.19	+2.89	4.60
67	Craig Reynolds	RB	NE	4.68	0.08	-4.60	4.60
68	Bucky Irving	RB	TB	15.74	13.85	-1.89	4.58
69	Antonio Gibson	RB	NE	8.69	4.64	-4.05	4.58
70	Kyren Williams	RB	LA	15.38	15.49	+0.10	4.56
71	Zamir White	RB	LV	6.43	1.92	-4.51	4.51
72	Tyler Allgeier	RB	ARI	7.84	7.24	-0.60	4.49
73	Bhayshul Tuten	RB	JAX	5.76	5.91	+0.14	4.43
74	Isiah Pacheco	RB	DET	9.60	6.72	-2.89	4.42
75	D'Ernest Johnson	RB	NE	4.91	0.50	-4.41	4.41
76	Tyler Goodson	RB	ATL	4.89	0.52	-4.37	4.37
77	De'Von Achane	RB	MIA	17.36	20.18	+2.82	4.34
78	Devin Neal	RB	NO	6.91	6.67	-0.24	4.31
79	Trey Sermon	RB	PIT	4.27	0.00	-4.27	4.27
80	Chris Rodriguez Jr.	RB	JAX	5.34	7.67	+2.32	4.26
81	Malik Davis	RB	DAL	4.56	4.06	-0.50	4.21
82	J.K. Dobbins	RB	DEN	14.64	11.59	-3.05	4.16
83	Jaylen Wright	RB	MIA	5.38	5.36	-0.02	4.15
84	Ameer Abdullah	RB	IND	6.49	2.92	-3.57	4.06
85	Nick Chubb	RB	HOU	8.15	5.89	-2.26	4.01
86	Ty Johnson	RB	BUF	6.10	5.90	-0.20	3.96
87	Isaiah Davis	RB	NYJ	4.91	4.45	-0.46	3.95
88	Brashard Smith	RB	KC	6.00	3.72	-2.27	3.89
89	Austin Ekeler	RB	WAS	10.41	6.55	-3.86	3.87
90	Tyjae Spears	RB	TEN	9.12	8.59	-0.52	3.85
91	Cam Akers	RB	SEA	5.58	1.79	-3.79	3.79
92	Jaydon Blue	RB	DAL	4.50	4.08	-0.42	3.77
93	Dare Ogunbowale	RB	HOU	5.15	1.72	-3.43	3.75
94	Trey Benson	RB	ARI	5.10	8.85	+3.75	3.75
95	Terrell Jennings	RB	NE	3.69	2.53	-1.15	3.73
96	Jaret Patterson	RB	LAC	3.81	4.28	+0.47	3.57
97	Ollie Gordon II	RB	MIA	3.64	3.18	-0.46	3.56
98	Kendre Miller	RB	NO	6.78	4.76	-2.02	3.55
99	Samaje Perine	RB	CIN	4.10	5.19	+1.10	3.47
100	Emari Demercado	RB	KC	4.87	4.86	-0.01	3.45
101	Tahj Brooks	RB	CIN	3.82	0.53	-3.29	3.29
102	Chris Brooks	RB	GB	4.83	1.92	-2.91	3.14
103	Dameon Pierce	RB	PHI	3.85	0.72	-3.13	3.13
104	Braelon Allen	RB	NYJ	6.16	3.83	-2.33	3.12
105	Hassan Haskins	RB	LAC	4.03	0.91	-3.12	3.12
106	Julius Chestnut	RB	TEN	3.29	0.25	-3.04	3.04
107	Keaton Mitchell	RB	LAC	5.67	4.26	-1.41	3.02
108	George Holani	RB	SEA	2.75	2.08	-0.67	2.92
109	Jeremy McNichols	RB	WAS	4.88	4.54	-0.33	2.77
110	Rasheen Ali	RB	BAL	3.31	1.61	-1.69	2.76
111	Kaleb Johnson	RB	PIT	3.56	0.88	-2.68	2.68
112	Hunter Luepke	RB	DAL	3.74	2.64	-1.10	2.68
113	Ty Chandler	RB	NO	4.10	2.93	-1.16	2.67
114	Ronnie Rivers	RB	LA	3.07	0.77	-2.31	2.67
115	Khalil Herbert	RB	NYJ	2.88	1.32	-1.56	2.63
116	Miles Sanders	RB	DAL	5.53	6.67	+1.15	2.52
117	Gary Brightwell	RB	CIN	2.52	0.00	-2.52	2.52
118	Tyler Badie	RB	DEN	4.56	2.21	-2.35	2.38
119	Eric Gray	RB	NYG	2.34	0.00	-2.34	2.34
120	Trayveon Williams	RB	CLE	1.12	2.85	+1.73	2.24
121	Kene Nwangwu	RB	NYJ	2.35	1.09	-1.26	2.15
122	Sione Vaki	RB	DET	2.04	0.05	-1.99	1.99
123	Will Shipley	RB	PHI	2.89	1.39	-1.50	1.92
124	Evan Hull	RB	NO	2.89	1.07	-1.82	1.82
125	Travis Homer	RB	PIT	1.79	-0.03	-1.82	1.82
126	Corey Kiner	RB	ARI	2.85	2.33	-0.52	1.79
127	DJ Giddens	RB	IND	3.34	1.92	-1.42	1.71
128	Robbie Ouzts	RB	SEA	1.69	0.00	-1.69	1.69
129	DeeJay Dallas	RB	JAX	2.05	0.42	-1.63	1.68
130	Dylan Laube	RB	LV	1.74	0.34	-1.40	1.67
131	British Brooks	RB	HOU	1.13	0.97	-0.16	1.56
132	Kalel Mullings	RB	TEN	1.72	0.17	-1.54	1.54
133	Josh Williams	RB	TB	1.94	0.55	-1.39	1.39
134	Jacob Saylors	RB	DET	1.43	0.10	-1.33	1.33
135	Raheim Sanders	RB	CLE	5.78	5.08	-0.70	1.26
136	Adam Prentice	RB	DEN	1.31	1.21	-0.10	1.20
137	Jakob Johnson	RB	HOU	1.17	0.00	-1.17	1.17
138	Avery Williams	RB	NYJ	1.15	0.00	-1.15	1.15
139	Trevor Etienne	RB	CAR	1.09	0.81	-0.28	1.06
140	LeQuint Allen Jr.	RB	JAX	2.16	1.55	-0.61	0.95
141	Owen Wright	RB	TB	1.19	0.30	-0.89	0.93
142	Myles Gaskin	RB	SEA	1.49	0.60	-0.89	0.89