A weekly backtest of the model. Mean absolute error per position, plus the players where we were most and least correct.
| No. | Player | Pos | Team | Pred ppg | Actual ppg | Δ ppg | MAE↓ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jonathan Taylor | RB | IND | 13.79 | 21.31 | +7.52 | 11.97 |
| 2 | Bijan Robinson |
| RB |
| ATL |
| 14.81 |
| 21.81 |
| +7.00 |
| 11.92 |
| 3 | Elijah Mitchell | RB | NE | 11.76 | 0.00 | -11.76 | 11.76 |
| 4 | James Cook | RB | BUF | 15.24 | 17.78 | +2.53 | 10.49 |
| 5 | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | DET | 14.00 | 21.58 | +7.58 | 9.89 |
| 6 | Christian McCaffrey | RB | SF | 16.65 | 24.51 | +7.86 | 9.48 |
| 7 | Kenneth Gainwell | RB | TB | 4.43 | 13.37 | +8.94 | 9.12 |
| 8 | Sean Tucker | RB | TB | 11.95 | 5.38 | -6.57 | 9.01 |
| 9 | TreVeyon Henderson | RB | NE | 12.69 | 12.13 | -0.56 | 8.13 |
| 10 | De'Von Achane | RB | MIA | 13.77 | 20.18 | +6.40 | 8.04 |
| 11 | Derrick Henry | RB | BAL | 13.81 | 16.44 | +2.63 | 8.02 |
| 12 | Breece Hall | RB | NYJ | 16.69 | 12.98 | -3.71 | 8.00 |
| 13 | Josh Jacobs | RB | GB | 14.86 | 15.81 | +0.95 | 7.74 |
| 14 | Travis Etienne | RB | NO | 9.94 | 14.66 | +4.72 | 7.73 |
| 15 | Cam Skattebo | RB | NYG | 15.66 | 15.96 | +0.30 | 7.64 |
| 16 | Rico Dowdle | RB | PIT | 9.62 | 11.49 | +1.87 | 7.57 |
| 17 | Rachaad White | RB | WAS | 14.09 | 8.61 | -5.48 | 7.53 |
| 18 | Isiah Pacheco | RB | DET | 13.70 | 6.79 | -6.91 | 7.44 |
| 19 | RJ Harvey | RB | DEN | 9.92 | 12.15 | +2.23 | 7.18 |
| 20 | James Conner | RB | ARI | 13.43 | 11.10 | -2.33 | 7.07 |
| 21 | Javonte Williams | RB | DAL | 8.62 | 15.18 | +6.55 | 6.92 |
| 22 | Kimani Vidal | RB | LAC | 5.72 | 9.07 | +3.35 | 6.89 |
| 23 | Brian Robinson | RB | ATL | 10.00 | 3.83 | -6.17 | 6.82 |
| 24 | Jerome Ford | RB | WAS | 10.32 | 3.66 | -6.66 | 6.69 |
| 25 | Chase Brown | RB | CIN | 11.10 | 16.62 | +5.53 | 6.62 |
| 26 | Justice Hill | RB | BAL | 8.31 | 6.52 | -1.79 | 6.59 |
| 27 | Myles Gaskin | RB | SEA | 7.12 | 0.60 | -6.52 | 6.52 |
| 28 | Roschon Johnson | RB | CHI | 6.79 | 0.28 | -6.50 | 6.50 |
| 29 | Ashton Jeanty | RB | LV | 14.62 | 14.42 | -0.21 | 6.46 |
| 30 | Chuba Hubbard | RB | CAR | 12.35 | 8.36 | -3.99 | 6.43 |
| 31 | Bucky Irving | RB | TB | 16.63 | 13.85 | -2.78 | 6.41 |
| 32 | Isaac Guerendo | RB | SF | 6.37 | 0.00 | -6.37 | 6.37 |
| 33 | Alvin Kamara | RB | NO | 14.55 | 9.15 | -5.40 | 6.16 |
| 34 | Saquon Barkley | RB | PHI | 14.06 | 14.52 | +0.46 | 5.96 |
| 35 | Jawhar Jordan | RB | HOU | 10.57 | 7.42 | -3.15 | 5.92 |
| 36 | D'Andre Swift | RB | CHI | 10.08 | 14.29 | +4.21 | 5.83 |
| 37 | Tyrone Tracy Jr. | RB | NYG | 10.44 | 10.72 | +0.28 | 5.80 |
| 38 | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB | WAS | 9.46 | 8.25 | -1.21 | 5.80 |
| 39 | Ray Davis | RB | BUF | 7.40 | 3.77 | -3.63 | 5.78 |
| 40 | Chase Edmonds | RB | WAS | 5.75 | 0.00 | -5.75 | 5.75 |
| 41 | Najee Harris | RB | LAC | 9.61 | 3.87 | -5.74 | 5.74 |
| 42 | Devin Singletary | RB | NYG | 7.69 | 6.40 | -1.29 | 5.68 |
| 43 | Khalil Herbert | RB | NYJ | 6.47 | 1.32 | -5.15 | 5.67 |
| 44 | Austin Ekeler | RB | WAS | 12.21 | 6.55 | -5.66 | 5.66 |
| 45 | Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | NE | 14.05 | 12.77 | -1.28 | 5.42 |
| 46 | Keaton Mitchell | RB | LAC | 8.86 | 4.38 | -4.49 | 5.40 |
| 47 | Omarion Hampton | RB | LAC | 14.07 | 15.08 | +1.00 | 5.35 |
| 48 | Audric Estimé | RB | NO | 5.54 | 9.62 | +4.08 | 5.34 |
| 49 | Raheem Mostert | RB | LV | 7.68 | 2.45 | -5.23 | 5.30 |
| 50 | Quinshon Judkins | RB | CLE | 11.38 | 12.13 | +0.75 | 5.28 |
| 51 | Zach Charbonnet | RB | SEA | 8.78 | 11.34 | +2.56 | 5.28 |
| 52 | Woody Marks | RB | HOU | 9.08 | 9.07 | -0.01 | 5.25 |
| 53 | Nate Carter | RB | ATL | 7.24 | 2.00 | -5.24 | 5.24 |
| 54 | Dylan Sampson | RB | CLE | 6.80 | 5.84 | -0.96 | 5.16 |
| 55 | AJ Dillon | RB | CAR | 6.65 | 1.52 | -5.13 | 5.13 |
| 56 | Tank Bigsby | RB | PHI | 6.32 | 3.59 | -2.73 | 5.11 |
| 57 | Nick Chubb | RB | HOU | 9.86 | 5.89 | -3.98 | 5.10 |
| 58 | Tyler Allgeier | RB | ARI | 6.38 | 7.10 | +0.72 | 5.09 |
| 59 | Kyren Williams | RB | LA | 14.15 | 15.49 | +1.34 | 5.07 |
| 60 | Emanuel Wilson | RB | SEA | 4.69 | 5.17 | +0.49 | 5.04 |
| 61 | Kendre Miller | RB | NO | 6.72 | 4.76 | -1.96 | 5.03 |
| 62 | Kareem Hunt | RB | KC | 8.33 | 8.55 | +0.23 | 5.03 |
| 63 | David Montgomery | RB | HOU | 11.03 | 9.93 | -1.10 | 5.01 |
| 64 | Tyler Badie | RB | DEN | 7.21 | 2.21 | -5.00 | 5.00 |
| 65 | Jaylen Warren | RB | PIT | 9.90 | 13.57 | +3.66 | 4.96 |
| 66 | Kenneth Walker III | RB | KC | 12.08 | 11.49 | -0.59 | 4.95 |
| 67 | Kyle Monangai | RB | CHI | 8.18 | 8.63 | +0.45 | 4.94 |
| 68 | Blake Corum | RB | LA | 3.24 | 7.19 | +3.95 | 4.94 |
| 69 | Bam Knight | RB | ARI | 5.53 | 7.74 | +2.22 | 4.86 |
| 70 | Chris Rodriguez Jr. | RB | JAX | 5.32 | 8.35 | +3.03 | 4.83 |
| 71 | Brittain Brown | RB | CHI | 4.33 | 4.85 | +0.51 | 4.83 |
| 72 | Aaron Jones | RB | MIN | 12.45 | 9.89 | -2.56 | 4.79 |
| 73 | Zamir White | RB | LV | 6.69 | 1.92 | -4.77 | 4.77 |
| 74 | Nyheim Hines | RB | NO | 4.68 | -0.05 | -4.73 | 4.73 |
| 75 | J.K. Dobbins | RB | DEN | 13.76 | 11.59 | -2.17 | 4.63 |
| 76 | Trey Benson | RB | ARI | 4.40 | 8.85 | +4.45 | 4.45 |
| 77 | Bhayshul Tuten | RB | JAX | 5.76 | 5.91 | +0.14 | 4.43 |
| 78 | Michael Carter | RB | TEN | 4.75 | 8.22 | +3.47 | 4.36 |
| 79 | Dameon Pierce | RB | PHI | 5.04 | 0.72 | -4.32 | 4.32 |
| 80 | Devin Neal | RB | NO | 6.91 | 6.67 | -0.24 | 4.31 |
| 81 | Craig Reynolds | RB | NE | 4.33 | 0.08 | -4.25 | 4.25 |
| 82 | D'Ernest Johnson | RB | NE | 4.73 | 0.50 | -4.23 | 4.23 |
| 83 | Trey Sermon | RB | PIT | 4.23 | 0.00 | -4.23 | 4.23 |
| 84 | Malik Davis | RB | DAL | 4.56 | 4.06 | -0.50 | 4.21 |
| 85 | Dylan Laube | RB | LV | 4.55 | 0.34 | -4.21 | 4.21 |
| 86 | Jaleel McLaughlin | RB | DEN | 8.08 | 3.92 | -4.15 | 4.15 |
| 87 | Cam Akers | RB | SEA | 5.25 | 1.79 | -3.45 | 4.12 |
| 88 | Brashard Smith | RB | KC | 6.00 | 3.72 | -2.27 | 3.89 |
| 89 | Jordan Mason | RB | MIN | 7.79 | 8.06 | +0.27 | 3.88 |
| 90 | Terrell Jennings | RB | NE | 3.94 | 2.53 | -1.41 | 3.82 |
| 91 | Ty Johnson | RB | BUF | 6.07 | 5.90 | -0.17 | 3.81 |
| 92 | Jaydon Blue | RB | DAL | 4.50 | 4.08 | -0.42 | 3.77 |
| 93 | Ty Chandler | RB | NO | 6.66 | 2.93 | -3.73 | 3.73 |
| 94 | Tyjae Spears | RB | TEN | 7.36 | 8.59 | +1.23 | 3.73 |
| 95 | Isaiah Davis | RB | NYJ | 3.64 | 4.45 | +0.81 | 3.70 |
| 96 | Jaylen Wright | RB | MIA | 3.68 | 5.36 | +1.68 | 3.69 |
| 97 | Ameer Abdullah | RB | IND | 5.65 | 2.92 | -2.74 | 3.64 |
| 98 | Jaret Patterson | RB | LAC | 3.81 | 4.28 | +0.47 | 3.57 |
| 99 | Ollie Gordon II | RB | MIA | 3.64 | 3.18 | -0.46 | 3.56 |
| 100 | Tony Pollard | RB | TEN | 10.30 | 10.93 | +0.63 | 3.54 |
| 101 | Emari Demercado | RB | KC | 6.71 | 4.08 | -2.63 | 3.52 |
| 102 | Tahj Brooks | RB | CIN | 3.82 | 0.53 | -3.29 | 3.29 |
| 103 | Braelon Allen | RB | NYJ | 5.79 | 3.83 | -1.96 | 3.26 |
| 104 | Samaje Perine | RB | CIN | 5.44 | 5.19 | -0.25 | 3.20 |
| 105 | Jeremy McNichols | RB | WAS | 5.57 | 4.54 | -1.03 | 3.19 |
| 106 | Hassan Haskins | RB | LAC | 4.04 | 0.91 | -3.13 | 3.13 |
| 107 | George Holani | RB | SEA | 2.92 | 2.08 | -0.84 | 3.06 |
| 108 | Tyler Goodson | RB | ATL | 3.56 | 0.52 | -3.04 | 3.04 |
| 109 | Julius Chestnut | RB | TEN | 3.26 | 0.25 | -3.01 | 3.01 |
| 110 | Chris Brooks | RB | GB | 4.79 | 1.92 | -2.87 | 2.97 |
| 111 | Travis Homer | RB | PIT | 2.91 | -0.03 | -2.93 | 2.93 |
| 112 | Miles Sanders | RB | DAL | 7.42 | 6.67 | -0.75 | 2.78 |
| 113 | Antonio Gibson | RB | NE | 6.04 | 4.64 | -1.40 | 2.69 |
| 114 | Kaleb Johnson | RB | PIT | 3.56 | 0.88 | -2.68 | 2.68 |
| 115 | Jordan Mims | RB | TEN | 2.66 | 0.00 | -2.66 | 2.66 |
| 116 | Sione Vaki | RB | DET | 2.70 | 0.05 | -2.65 | 2.65 |
| 117 | Dare Ogunbowale | RB | HOU | 3.50 | 1.72 | -1.77 | 2.63 |
| 118 | Ronnie Rivers | RB | LA | 3.17 | 0.77 | -2.41 | 2.62 |
| 119 | Eric Gray | RB | NYG | 2.57 | 0.00 | -2.57 | 2.57 |
| 120 | Gary Brightwell | RB | CIN | 2.52 | 0.00 | -2.52 | 2.52 |
| 121 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | RB | KC | 4.53 | 2.10 | -2.43 | 2.42 |
| 122 | Will Shipley | RB | PHI | 3.15 | 1.39 | -1.76 | 2.33 |
| 123 | Rasheen Ali | RB | BAL | 2.20 | 1.61 | -0.59 | 2.17 |
| 124 | Hunter Luepke | RB | DAL | 1.13 | 2.64 | +1.51 | 2.14 |
| 125 | Trayveon Williams | RB | CLE | 1.98 | 2.85 | +0.87 | 2.04 |
| 126 | Evan Hull | RB | NO | 2.89 | 1.07 | -1.82 | 1.82 |
| 127 | Corey Kiner | RB | ARI | 2.85 | 2.33 | -0.52 | 1.79 |
| 128 | DJ Giddens | RB | IND | 3.34 | 1.92 | -1.42 | 1.71 |
| 129 | Robbie Ouzts | RB | SEA | 1.69 | 0.00 | -1.69 | 1.69 |
| 130 | British Brooks | RB | HOU | 0.72 | 0.97 | +0.26 | 1.60 |
| 131 | Kene Nwangwu | RB | NYJ | 1.26 | 1.09 | -0.17 | 1.58 |
| 132 | DeeJay Dallas | RB | JAX | 1.72 | 0.42 | -1.30 | 1.56 |
| 133 | Kalel Mullings | RB | TEN | 1.72 | 0.17 | -1.54 | 1.54 |
| 134 | Josh Williams | RB | TB | 1.94 | 0.55 | -1.39 | 1.39 |
| 135 | Jacob Saylors | RB | DET | 1.43 | 0.10 | -1.33 | 1.33 |
| 136 | Adam Prentice | RB | DEN | 1.85 | 1.21 | -0.64 | 1.30 |
| 137 | Raheim Sanders | RB | CLE | 5.78 | 5.08 | -0.70 | 1.26 |
| 138 | Jakob Johnson | RB | HOU | 1.17 | 0.00 | -1.17 | 1.17 |
| 139 | Avery Williams | RB | NYJ | 1.09 | 0.00 | -1.09 | 1.09 |
| 140 | Trevor Etienne | RB | CAR | 1.09 | 0.81 | -0.28 | 1.06 |
| 141 | LeQuint Allen Jr. | RB | JAX | 2.16 | 1.55 | -0.61 | 0.95 |
| 142 | Owen Wright | RB | TB | 1.19 | 0.30 | -0.89 | 0.93 |