Predicted vs. actual

A weekly backtest of the model. Per-position MAE, calibration by predicted-points decile, residual distribution, and rank fidelity.

Position

All QB RB WR TE

Format

PPR Standard

Season

2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020

QB MAE

6.92

499 weeks · -0.27 bias

RB MAE

5.67

1,118 weeks · +0.64 bias

WR MAE

5.52

1,688 weeks · -0.45 bias

TE MAE

4.34

947 weeks · +0.04 bias

Diagnostics — TE · 947 weeks

MAE

4.34

lower is better

RMSE

5.73

penalizes large misses

Calibration · predicted vs. actual by decile

Each point is a decile of predicted points. A well-calibrated model sits on the 45° line — points above mean the model under-predicts; below, it over-predicts.

Residual distribution · actual − predicted

How miss-magnitudes spread out. Mass left of zero = over-predicted weeks; mass right = under-predicted. Centered, narrow = good.

< −15

3 (0%)

−15 to −10

10 (1%)

−10 to −5

113 (12%)

−5 to −2

284 (30%)

−2 to 0

168 (18%)

0 to 2

97 (10%)

2 to 5

110

Per-decile error decomposition

Rows are predicted-points deciles (D1 = bottom 10% of predictions, D10 = top 10%). Bias is the model's systematic over- or under-shoot within that bucket.

Decile	n	Pred (μ)	Actual (μ)	Bias	MAE	RMSE
D1	95	2.72	5.24	-2.52	4.52	6.67
D2	95	3.08	4.81	-1.73	3.87	5.39
D3	95	3.62	2.73	+0.89	2.58	3.08
D4	95	4.37	3.66	+0.71	3.59	4.52
D5	95	4.94	4.66	+0.29	4.10	5.24
D6	95	5.46	5.19	+0.27	3.50	4.37
D7	95	6.23	7.02	-0.79	4.87	6.08
D8	94	7.73	6.62	+1.11	4.92	5.94
D9	94	8.85	7.58	+1.26	4.40	5.33
D10	94	14.15	13.21	+0.94	7.07	8.87

No.	Player	Pos	Team	Pred ppg	Actual ppg	Δ ppg	MAE↓
1	Zach Ertz	TE	WAS	19.53	7.05	-12.49	12.49
2	Robert Tonyan	TE	KC	2.87	11.77	+8.90	9.11
3	Logan Thomas	TE	WAS	2.99	11.68	+8.69	8.93
4	Travis Kelce	TE	KC	14.70	20.85	+6.15	7.89
5	Darren Waller	TE	MIA	14.52	17.41	+2.89	7.85
6	George Kittle	TE	SF	14.43	15.64	+1.21	7.59
7	Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	3.00	9.16	+6.16	6.44
8	Jonnu Smith	TE	PIT	5.76	10.01	+4.25	6.31
9	Mark Andrews	TE	BAL	12.99	12.15	-0.84	6.09
10	Jimmy Graham	TE	NO	4.82	8.75	+3.93	6.05
11	Mike Gesicki	TE	CIN	8.03	10.62	+2.59	5.93
12	Kaden Smith	TE	WAS	7.72	1.95	-5.77	5.77
13	C.J. Uzomah	TE	PHI	5.63	11.35	+5.71	5.71
14	Irv Smith	TE	HOU	5.81	7.58	+1.77	5.70
15	T.J. Hockenson	TE	MIN	6.53	10.96	+4.42	5.56
16	Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	8.46	10.58	+2.12	5.47
17	Evan Engram	TE	DEN	13.44	8.81	-4.63	5.45
18	Greg Olsen	TE	SEA	9.13	4.90	-4.23	5.20
19	O.J. Howard	TE	HOU	6.84	9.40	+2.56	5.17
20	Hayden Hurst	TE	LAC	6.79	9.09	+2.29	5.11
21	Jason Witten	TE	LV	7.77	3.19	-4.58	5.10
22	Ricky Seals-Jones	TE	WAS	4.89	0.00	-4.89	4.89
23	Seth DeValve	TE	ARI	4.88	0.00	-4.88	4.88
24	Jared Cook	TE	LAC	8.47	8.49	+0.03	4.84
25	Jeremy Sprinkle	TE	DAL	4.99	0.23	-4.76	4.76
26	Eric Ebron	TE	PIT	8.58	9.34	+0.77	4.74
27	Tyler Kroft	TE	MIA	2.99	5.99	+2.99	4.74
28	Trey Burton	TE	IND	4.66	6.62	+1.95	4.51
29	Josh Hill	TE	NO	5.79	2.07	-3.72	4.50
30	Tyler Higbee	TE	LA	8.45	8.55	+0.10	4.35
31	Darren Fells	TE	TB	5.28	6.35	+1.07	4.33
32	Will Dissly	TE	LAC	7.83	4.07	-3.76	4.29
33	Jacob Hollister	TE	SEA	8.28	5.07	-3.21	4.27
34	Nick Boyle	TE	BAL	5.99	4.14	-1.85	4.27
35	Noah Fant	TE	NO	7.69	10.66	+2.98	4.25
36	Gerald Everett	TE	CHI	9.15	6.19	-2.96	4.20
37	Geoff Swaim	TE	CLE	5.03	3.33	-1.70	4.13
38	Lee Smith	TE	ATL	3.31	3.90	+0.59	4.09
39	Ryan Griffin	TE	CHI	5.85	1.76	-4.09	4.08
40	Derek Carrier	TE	LV	4.41	0.40	-4.01	4.01
41	N'Keal Harry	TE	SEA	4.76	5.68	+0.92	4.00
42	Tyler Conklin	TE	DET	2.80	4.93	+2.13	3.91
43	Vance McDonald	TE	PIT	5.53	2.49	-3.04	3.82
44	Austin Hooper	TE	ATL	9.19	9.28	+0.10	3.79
45	Anthony Firkser	TE	DET	5.37	5.58	+0.21	3.77
46	Foster Moreau	TE	HOU	4.76	4.13	-0.64	3.77
47	Stephen Carlson	TE	CHI	4.34	0.59	-3.75	3.75
48	Dan Arnold	TE	JAX	4.07	6.45	+2.38	3.65
49	Jordan Akins	TE	JAX	4.94	6.44	+1.50	3.63
50	Hunter Henry	TE	NE	10.70	10.38	-0.32	3.59
51	Drew Sample	TE	CIN	2.67	4.93	+2.26	3.58
52	Troy Fumagalli	TE	MIN	2.88	3.14	+0.26	3.55
53	Mo Alie-Cox	TE	IND	3.07	5.74	+2.67	3.53
54	Pharaoh Brown	TE	ARI	3.10	4.70	+1.60	3.53
55	Jack Doyle	TE	IND	7.45	4.93	-2.52	3.48
56	David Njoku	TE	CLE	4.79	4.75	-0.03	3.40
57	Demetrius Harris	TE	ARI	4.39	1.05	-3.35	3.39
58	Jesse James	TE	LV	4.65	2.99	-1.66	3.31
59	Virgil Green	TE	LAC	3.53	2.80	-0.73	3.22
60	Adam Shaheen	TE	MIA	3.85	3.46	-0.39	3.16
61	Antony Auclair	TE	TEN	3.16	0.00	-3.16	3.16
62	Kyle Rudolph	TE	TB	6.19	5.45	-0.74	3.16
63	Cameron Brate	TE	TB	5.75	5.25	-0.50	3.15
64	Cethan Carter	TE	MIA	3.92	0.79	-3.13	3.13
65	Eric Saubert	TE	SEA	3.79	0.66	-3.13	3.13
66	MyCole Pruitt	TE	PIT	3.35	4.38	+1.03	3.12
67	Jace Sternberger	TE	PIT	2.40	3.67	+1.27	3.06
68	Nick Vannett	TE	LA	4.23	2.78	-1.45	3.02
69	Trevon Wesco	TE	LV	3.46	0.50	-2.96	2.96
70	Marcedes Lewis	TE	DEN	3.44	3.52	+0.07	2.95
71	Tyler Eifert	TE	JAX	5.26	5.29	+0.03	2.87
72	Johnny Mundt	TE	PHI	2.54	1.86	-0.68	2.85
73	Ian Thomas	TE	LV	5.14	3.12	-2.03	2.84
74	J.P. Holtz	TE	NO	2.83	0.00	-2.83	2.83
75	Dawson Knox	TE	BUF	5.45	6.07	+0.62	2.69
76	James O'Shaughnessy	TE	MIN	5.42	3.61	-1.81	2.67
77	Darrell Daniels	TE	DET	2.79	2.58	-0.22	2.64
78	Blake Jarwin	TE	DAL	4.84	2.20	-2.64	2.64
79	Jaeden Graham	TE	ATL	3.28	0.69	-2.60	2.60
80	Ross Dwelley	TE	CAR	4.92	4.13	-0.79	2.56
81	Luke Willson	TE	SEA	3.58	1.10	-2.48	2.48
82	Chris Manhertz	TE	NYG	3.86	1.60	-2.26	2.26
83	Luke Stocker	TE	MIN	3.32	1.21	-2.11	2.24
84	Daniel Brown	TE	NYJ	2.81	0.64	-2.17	2.21
85	Durham Smythe	TE	BAL	3.64	4.52	+0.89	2.06
86	Levine Toilolo	TE	NYG	3.43	1.37	-2.06	2.06
87	Isaac Nauta	TE	GB	2.56	0.65	-1.91	1.91
88	Ryan Izzo	TE	TEN	3.82	3.09	-0.73	1.89
89	Maxx Williams	TE	ARI	3.35	4.03	+0.68	1.85
90	Blake Bell	TE	KC	3.10	2.02	-1.08	1.73
91	Tanner Hudson	TE	CIN	2.79	1.77	-1.02	1.20
92	Deon Yelder	TE	NYG	2.93	1.77	-1.16	1.16