Predicted vs. actual

A weekly backtest of the model. Per-position MAE, calibration by predicted-points decile, residual distribution, and rank fidelity.

Position

All QB RB WR TE

Format

PPR Standard

Season

2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020

QB MAE

6.51

491 weeks · +0.24 bias

RB MAE

5.95

1,138 weeks · +0.46 bias

WR MAE

5.35

1,954 weeks · +0.02 bias

TE MAE

4.08

910 weeks · +0.24 bias

Diagnostics — TE · 910 weeks

MAE

4.08

lower is better

RMSE

5.48

penalizes large misses

Calibration · predicted vs. actual by decile

Each point is a decile of predicted points. A well-calibrated model sits on the 45° line — points above mean the model under-predicts; below, it over-predicts.

Residual distribution · actual − predicted

How miss-magnitudes spread out. Mass left of zero = over-predicted weeks; mass right = under-predicted. Centered, narrow = good.

< −15

0 (0%)

−15 to −10

8 (1%)

−10 to −5

126 (14%)

−5 to −2

268 (29%)

−2 to 0

156 (17%)

0 to 2

109 (12%)

2 to 5

128 (14%)

Per-decile error decomposition

Rows are predicted-points deciles (D1 = bottom 10% of predictions, D10 = top 10%). Bias is the model's systematic over- or under-shoot within that bucket.

Decile	n	Pred (μ)	Actual (μ)	Bias	MAE	RMSE
D1	91	2.38	1.69	+0.69	2.18	2.78
D2	91	3.03	2.60	+0.43	2.53	3.19
D3	91	3.66	4.33	-0.67	3.42	4.58
D4	91	4.71	4.11	+0.61	3.20	4.35
D5	91	5.55	5.96	-0.41	3.37	4.32
D6	91	6.09	6.28	-0.19	4.65	5.70
D7	91	6.97	5.96	+1.02	4.13	4.90
D8	91	8.12	7.54	+0.58	4.91	6.24
D9	91	10.12	9.74	+0.38	6.19	7.75
D10	91	13.25	13.29	-0.04	6.23	8.23

No.	Player	Pos	Team	Pred ppg	Actual ppg	Δ ppg	MAE↓
1	Rob Gronkowski	TE	TB	8.08	14.27	+6.19	8.85
2	George Kittle	TE	SF	16.31	14.14	-2.17	8.43
3	Mark Andrews	TE	BAL	12.28	17.71	+5.43	8.33
4	Travis Kelce	TE	KC	12.86	16.43	+3.57	7.24
5	Darren Waller	TE	MIA	16.32	12.14	-4.18	6.99
6	Maxx Williams	TE	ARI	3.41	8.26	+4.85	6.59
7	Dawson Knox	TE	BUF	6.20	10.94	+4.74	6.41
8	C.J. Uzomah	TE	PHI	10.45	8.02	-2.43	6.07
9	T.J. Hockenson	TE	MIN	10.72	12.11	+1.39	6.02
10	Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	9.62	12.28	+2.66	5.97
11	Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	7.81	11.00	+3.19	5.89
12	Hunter Henry	TE	NE	11.57	10.27	-1.31	5.82
13	Eric Ebron	TE	PIT	8.66	4.06	-4.60	5.55
14	Drew Sample	TE	CIN	7.46	1.91	-5.55	5.55
15	O.J. Howard	TE	HOU	6.98	3.35	-3.63	5.51
16	Zach Ertz	TE	WAS	10.47	10.72	+0.25	5.33
17	Noah Fant	TE	NO	10.90	9.94	-0.96	5.21
18	Chris Herndon	TE	MIN	6.26	1.36	-4.90	4.90
19	Robert Tonyan	TE	KC	6.87	6.30	-0.57	4.89
20	Mike Gesicki	TE	CIN	9.22	9.71	+0.48	4.83
21	Tyler Higbee	TE	LA	6.65	9.80	+3.15	4.67
22	Gerald Everett	TE	CHI	6.28	7.94	+1.66	4.54
23	N'Keal Harry	TE	SEA	7.52	3.04	-4.48	4.52
24	David Njoku	TE	CLE	3.98	7.17	+3.19	4.49
25	Jimmy Graham	TE	NO	7.58	4.61	-2.97	4.49
26	Foster Moreau	TE	HOU	3.87	5.69	+1.82	4.47
27	Jonnu Smith	TE	PIT	8.08	4.35	-3.73	4.44
28	Nick Boyle	TE	BAL	5.03	0.60	-4.43	4.42
29	Evan Engram	TE	DEN	10.89	6.83	-4.05	4.35
30	Juwan Johnson	TE	NO	5.34	4.07	-1.27	4.15
31	Jack Doyle	TE	IND	5.59	5.28	-0.31	4.11
32	Dan Arnold	TE	JAX	6.36	7.39	+1.03	4.07
33	Jordan Akins	TE	JAX	6.48	3.48	-3.01	4.03
34	Tyler Conklin	TE	DET	5.61	8.14	+2.53	4.02
35	Mo Alie-Cox	TE	IND	5.49	4.68	-0.80	3.92
36	Jesse James	TE	LV	3.11	3.84	+0.73	3.91
37	Adam Trautman	TE	DEN	3.42	5.75	+2.34	3.89
38	Cole Kmet	TE	CHI	5.61	7.13	+1.52	3.66
39	Hayden Hurst	TE	LAC	8.02	5.34	-2.68	3.61
40	Austin Hooper	TE	ATL	7.90	6.17	-1.73	3.60
41	Nick Vannett	TE	LA	4.25	4.22	-0.04	3.54
42	Anthony Firkser	TE	DET	6.26	4.87	-1.39	3.53
43	Albert Okwuegbunam	TE	LV	6.18	5.43	-0.75	3.48
44	Jared Cook	TE	LAC	7.64	7.99	+0.35	3.47
45	Darren Fells	TE	TB	6.22	2.77	-3.45	3.45
46	Geoff Swaim	TE	CLE	3.28	4.38	+1.09	3.42
47	Donald Parham	TE	PIT	2.68	4.54	+1.86	3.34
48	Darrell Daniels	TE	DET	3.21	0.10	-3.11	3.11
49	Harrison Bryant	TE	SEA	5.62	4.15	-1.47	3.09
50	Ross Dwelley	TE	CAR	3.68	3.77	+0.09	2.99
51	James O'Shaughnessy	TE	MIN	5.52	7.20	+1.68	2.93
52	Ben Ellefson	TE	MIN	2.84	0.00	-2.84	2.84
53	MyCole Pruitt	TE	PIT	3.83	4.85	+1.02	2.82
54	Stephen Anderson	TE	LAC	3.79	2.75	-1.04	2.80
55	Ian Thomas	TE	LV	4.71	2.63	-2.08	2.80
56	Durham Smythe	TE	BAL	5.44	4.38	-1.06	2.79
57	Kyle Rudolph	TE	TB	5.93	4.06	-1.87	2.75
58	Chris Manhertz	TE	NYG	3.53	1.91	-1.62	2.75
59	Richard Rodgers	TE	LAC	5.80	3.10	-2.70	2.70
60	Jacob Hollister	TE	SEA	5.00	2.93	-2.08	2.63
61	Lee Smith	TE	ATL	2.37	2.20	-0.17	2.57
62	Ryan Griffin	TE	CHI	2.97	4.65	+1.68	2.54
63	Daniel Brown	TE	NYJ	2.36	1.63	-0.73	2.46
64	Logan Thomas	TE	WAS	10.14	10.72	+0.58	2.33
65	Johnny Mundt	TE	PHI	2.95	0.63	-2.32	2.32
66	Tyler Kroft	TE	MIA	5.31	4.37	-0.94	2.29
67	Colin Thompson	TE	CAR	2.29	0.00	-2.29	2.29
68	Demetrius Harris	TE	ARI	2.65	0.40	-2.25	2.25
69	Dominique Dafney	TE	CAR	2.90	0.90	-2.00	2.25
70	Cameron Brate	TE	TB	4.37	4.91	+0.54	2.15
71	Marcedes Lewis	TE	DEN	3.29	3.42	+0.13	2.14
72	Eric Saubert	TE	SEA	2.27	1.93	-0.34	2.11
73	Luke Stocker	TE	MIN	2.61	0.53	-2.08	2.08
74	Charlie Woerner	TE	ATL	2.74	1.27	-1.46	2.08
75	Jeremy Sprinkle	TE	DAL	2.42	1.02	-1.40	2.00
76	Blake Bell	TE	KC	3.03	1.70	-1.33	1.98
77	Will Dissly	TE	LAC	4.39	3.85	-0.54	1.97
78	Trevon Wesco	TE	LV	2.21	0.81	-1.40	1.95
79	Kaden Smith	TE	WAS	2.55	1.57	-0.97	1.88
80	Pharaoh Brown	TE	ARI	3.08	2.93	-0.15	1.86
81	J.P. Holtz	TE	NO	1.81	0.00	-1.81	1.81
82	Adam Shaheen	TE	MIA	2.54	3.29	+0.75	1.81
83	Derek Carrier	TE	LV	2.79	1.65	-1.14	1.74
84	Deon Yelder	TE	NYG	2.55	1.00	-1.55	1.55
85	Cethan Carter	TE	MIA	1.99	0.45	-1.54	1.54