Predicted vs. actual

A weekly backtest of the model. Per-position MAE, calibration by predicted-points decile, residual distribution, and rank fidelity.

Position

All QB RB WR TE

Format

PPR Standard

Season

2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020

QB MAE

6.25

531 weeks · -0.12 bias

RB MAE

5.53

1,143 weeks · +1.10 bias

WR MAE

5.15

1,901 weeks · +0.26 bias

TE MAE

3.95

947 weeks · +0.69 bias

Diagnostics — TE · 947 weeks

MAE

3.95

lower is better

RMSE

5.25

penalizes large misses

Calibration · predicted vs. actual by decile

Each point is a decile of predicted points. A well-calibrated model sits on the 45° line — points above mean the model under-predicts; below, it over-predicts.

Residual distribution · actual − predicted

How miss-magnitudes spread out. Mass left of zero = over-predicted weeks; mass right = under-predicted. Centered, narrow = good.

< −15

0 (0%)

−15 to −10

5 (1%)

−10 to −5

148 (16%)

−5 to −2

296 (31%)

−2 to 0

173 (18%)

0 to 2

109 (12%)

2 to 5

105 (11%)

Per-decile error decomposition

Rows are predicted-points deciles (D1 = bottom 10% of predictions, D10 = top 10%). Bias is the model's systematic over- or under-shoot within that bucket.

Decile	n	Pred (μ)	Actual (μ)	Bias	MAE	RMSE
D1	95	2.38	2.44	-0.06	2.12	3.03
D2	95	3.13	2.04	+1.08	2.39	2.73
D3	95	3.77	3.99	-0.23	3.41	4.71
D4	95	4.76	4.02	+0.74	3.30	4.14
D5	95	5.19	3.91	+1.28	3.48	4.35
D6	95	5.78	4.62	+1.16	3.67	4.59
D7	95	7.24	6.30	+0.94	4.60	5.43
D8	94	8.83	8.90	-0.07	4.66	6.41
D9	94	9.64	7.47	+2.17	5.25	6.19
D10	94	12.72	12.80	-0.08	6.67	8.46

No.	Player	Pos	Team	Pred ppg	Actual ppg	Δ ppg	MAE↓
1	Mark Andrews	TE	BAL	12.83	12.70	-0.13	7.62
2	George Kittle	TE	SF	12.15	13.37	+1.22	7.48
3	Dan Arnold	TE	JAX	9.21	2.05	-7.16	7.16
4	Mike Gesicki	TE	CIN	10.46	5.78	-4.68	7.12
5	Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	10.08	9.51	-0.57	6.18
6	Kyle Pitts	TE	ATL	11.91	7.56	-4.35	6.18
7	Evan Engram	TE	DEN	8.85	10.94	+2.10	6.14
8	Travis Kelce	TE	KC	16.33	18.61	+2.28	6.12
9	Juwan Johnson	TE	NO	4.09	8.43	+4.34	6.11
10	Maxx Williams	TE	ARI	7.66	1.60	-6.06	6.06
11	T.J. Hockenson	TE	MIN	10.52	12.79	+2.26	5.96
12	Tyler Higbee	TE	LA	9.36	9.50	+0.14	5.72
13	David Njoku	TE	CLE	7.48	10.14	+2.66	5.67
14	Shane Zylstra	TE	DET	5.21	5.13	-0.09	5.62
15	Tyler Conklin	TE	DET	9.13	7.83	-1.30	5.38
16	Mo Alie-Cox	TE	IND	6.12	3.85	-2.27	5.38
17	Cole Kmet	TE	CHI	8.94	8.66	-0.27	5.03
18	Darren Waller	TE	MIA	13.53	10.60	-2.93	4.90
19	Geoff Swaim	TE	CLE	6.04	1.98	-4.06	4.80
20	Jordan Akins	TE	JAX	4.90	7.77	+2.86	4.78
21	Albert Okwuegbunam	TE	LV	5.17	4.25	-0.92	4.74
22	Ryan Griffin	TE	CHI	5.43	0.73	-4.69	4.69
23	Logan Thomas	TE	WAS	9.84	5.95	-3.89	4.69
24	C.J. Uzomah	TE	PHI	6.82	3.91	-2.91	4.66
25	Hunter Henry	TE	NE	8.81	6.49	-2.32	4.61
26	Pat Freiermuth	TE	PIT	7.55	9.88	+2.33	4.39
27	Zach Ertz	TE	WAS	9.16	11.56	+2.40	4.33
28	Adam Trautman	TE	DEN	7.25	3.73	-3.52	4.21
29	Austin Hooper	TE	ATL	7.68	5.75	-1.93	4.20
30	Dawson Knox	TE	BUF	9.99	9.05	-0.95	4.14
31	Brock Wright	TE	DET	4.87	4.54	-0.33	4.00
32	Ross Dwelley	TE	CAR	3.99	3.90	-0.09	3.84
33	Blake Bell	TE	KC	3.29	5.00	+1.71	3.79
34	Noah Fant	TE	NO	8.93	6.75	-2.18	3.76
35	Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	9.28	11.77	+2.48	3.75
36	John Bates	TE	WAS	5.19	3.42	-1.77	3.70
37	Hayden Hurst	TE	LAC	5.62	8.11	+2.49	3.70
38	MyCole Pruitt	TE	PIT	5.05	5.31	+0.26	3.69
39	Kyle Rudolph	TE	TB	4.87	2.36	-2.51	3.67
40	Tommy Tremble	TE	CAR	4.73	3.63	-1.11	3.63
41	Tyler Kroft	TE	MIA	5.08	1.62	-3.47	3.47
42	Josh Oliver	TE	MIN	3.63	3.41	-0.23	3.46
43	O.J. Howard	TE	HOU	3.61	3.46	-0.15	3.38
44	Brevin Jordan	TE	HOU	5.75	2.98	-2.77	3.37
45	Durham Smythe	TE	BAL	5.54	3.08	-2.47	3.35
46	Marcedes Lewis	TE	DEN	4.94	4.43	-0.51	3.33
47	Robert Tonyan	TE	KC	6.19	6.59	+0.40	3.27
48	Gerald Everett	TE	CHI	8.72	9.30	+0.58	3.23
49	Josiah Deguara	TE	ARI	5.00	2.71	-2.29	3.19
50	Charlie Woerner	TE	ATL	3.15	0.00	-3.15	3.15
51	Will Dissly	TE	LAC	5.42	5.79	+0.37	3.14
52	Zach Gentry	TE	LV	4.51	2.30	-2.21	3.09
53	Colby Parkinson	TE	LA	2.89	4.94	+2.05	3.08
54	Kevin Rader	TE	TEN	3.06	0.00	-3.06	3.06
55	Nick Vannett	TE	LA	5.42	2.40	-3.02	3.02
56	Eric Tomlinson	TE	LAC	2.38	3.61	+1.23	2.97
57	Joseph Fortson	TE	KC	3.90	3.18	-0.72	2.96
58	Pharaoh Brown	TE	ARI	5.63	2.80	-2.83	2.89
59	Eric Saubert	TE	SEA	3.47	2.56	-0.91	2.85
60	N'Keal Harry	TE	SEA	4.75	4.10	-0.65	2.84
61	Donald Parham	TE	PIT	4.27	4.83	+0.56	2.83
62	Tyler Davis	TE	GB	3.12	0.60	-2.52	2.81
63	Stephen Anderson	TE	LAC	3.18	0.43	-2.75	2.75
64	Tommy Sweeney	TE	CHI	3.58	0.85	-2.73	2.73
65	Foster Moreau	TE	HOU	6.04	6.23	+0.19	2.73
66	Cameron Brate	TE	TB	5.47	4.16	-1.32	2.72
67	Jesper Horsted	TE	LV	2.84	0.98	-1.86	2.69
68	Anthony Firkser	TE	DET	5.02	2.38	-2.65	2.65
69	Hunter Long	TE	JAX	2.61	0.00	-2.61	2.61
70	Nick Boyle	TE	BAL	2.59	0.00	-2.59	2.59
71	Mitchell Wilcox	TE	NE	1.74	4.10	+2.36	2.55
72	Tyree Jackson	TE	WAS	2.50	0.00	-2.50	2.50
73	Kylen Granson	TE	TEN	3.28	4.71	+1.43	2.47
74	Drew Sample	TE	CIN	3.35	0.90	-2.46	2.46
75	Tre' McKitty	TE	CLE	3.02	1.32	-1.69	2.35
76	Jonnu Smith	TE	PIT	5.22	4.33	-0.88	2.33
77	Sean McKeon	TE	IND	3.27	1.03	-2.24	2.24
78	J.P. Holtz	TE	NO	2.21	0.00	-2.21	2.21
79	Chris Myarick	TE	MIA	3.06	1.95	-1.11	2.20
80	Harrison Bryant	TE	SEA	4.70	4.41	-0.29	2.17
81	Ian Thomas	TE	LV	4.77	3.13	-1.64	2.13
82	Kenny Yeboah	TE	DET	2.13	0.00	-2.13	2.13
83	Chris Manhertz	TE	NYG	3.55	1.46	-2.10	2.13
84	Noah Gray	TE	KC	3.02	4.12	+1.09	1.91
85	Jack Stoll	TE	CLE	3.36	2.59	-0.77	1.75
86	Trevon Wesco	TE	LV	2.92	1.32	-1.60	1.74
87	Feleipe Franks	TE	CAR	1.71	0.00	-1.71	1.71
88	Giovanni Ricci	TE	DET	2.05	1.64	-0.41	1.64
89	Ben Ellefson	TE	MIN	2.17	2.80	+0.63	1.52
90	Johnny Mundt	TE	PHI	2.18	3.00	+0.82	1.46
91	Parker Hesse	TE	DET	2.67	1.49	-1.18	1.25
92	Kendall Blanton	TE	KC	3.60	2.75	-0.85	1.06
93	Luke Farrell	TE	SF	3.04	2.00	-1.04	1.03