Predicted vs. actual

A weekly backtest of the model. Per-position MAE, calibration by predicted-points decile, residual distribution, and rank fidelity.

Position

All QB RB WR TE

Format

PPR Standard

Season

2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020

QB MAE

7.05

517 weeks · +0.76 bias

RB MAE

5.40

1,181 weeks · +0.78 bias

WR MAE

5.27

1,876 weeks · +0.93 bias

TE MAE

3.83

949 weeks · +0.62 bias

Diagnostics — TE · 949 weeks

MAE

3.83

lower is better

RMSE

4.96

penalizes large misses

Calibration · predicted vs. actual by decile

Each point is a decile of predicted points. A well-calibrated model sits on the 45° line — points above mean the model under-predicts; below, it over-predicts.

Residual distribution · actual − predicted

How miss-magnitudes spread out. Mass left of zero = over-predicted weeks; mass right = under-predicted. Centered, narrow = good.

< −15

0 (0%)

−15 to −10

8 (1%)

−10 to −5

116 (12%)

−5 to −2

329 (35%)

−2 to 0

172 (18%)

0 to 2

102 (11%)

2 to 5

113 (12%)

Per-decile error decomposition

Rows are predicted-points deciles (D1 = bottom 10% of predictions, D10 = top 10%). Bias is the model's systematic over- or under-shoot within that bucket.

Decile	n	Pred (μ)	Actual (μ)	Bias	MAE	RMSE
D1	95	2.45	1.67	+0.79	2.14	2.51
D2	95	3.29	2.57	+0.72	2.69	3.47
D3	95	4.04	3.72	+0.32	2.71	3.31
D4	95	4.59	4.18	+0.41	3.43	4.21
D5	95	5.02	5.23	-0.20	3.71	4.65
D6	95	5.56	5.22	+0.34	4.43	5.67
D7	95	6.69	4.88	+1.81	4.14	5.02
D8	95	8.24	6.73	+1.51	3.99	4.85
D9	95	9.97	10.07	-0.10	5.16	6.47
D10	94	12.85	12.25	+0.60	5.92	7.38

No.	Player	Pos	Team	Pred ppg	Actual ppg	Δ ppg	MAE↓
1	George Kittle	TE	SF	11.93	12.70	+0.77	7.50
2	Greg Dulcich	TE	MIA	10.05	2.75	-7.30	7.30
3	Pat Freiermuth	TE	PIT	11.44	6.98	-4.46	6.54
4	Trey McBride	TE	ARI	5.92	10.68	+4.75	6.46
5	Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	12.42	9.74	-2.68	6.25
6	Hunter Henry	TE	NE	6.75	9.22	+2.47	6.03
7	Jake Ferguson	TE	DAL	4.98	10.42	+5.44	6.02
8	Isaiah Likely	TE	NYG	5.75	7.22	+1.47	5.90
9	Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	9.36	10.03	+0.68	5.63
10	Cole Kmet	TE	CHI	9.65	11.32	+1.67	5.61
11	Travis Kelce	TE	KC	14.64	14.63	-0.01	5.53
12	David Njoku	TE	CLE	9.85	12.57	+2.72	5.42
13	Juwan Johnson	TE	NO	8.25	7.52	-0.72	5.38
14	Albert Okwuegbunam	TE	LV	5.38	0.00	-5.38	5.38
15	Jonnu Smith	TE	PIT	4.76	7.31	+2.54	5.16
16	T.J. Hockenson	TE	MIN	13.56	14.60	+1.04	5.09
17	Mark Andrews	TE	BAL	13.45	13.54	+0.09	5.01
18	Evan Engram	TE	DEN	10.91	13.55	+2.64	5.01
19	Kyle Pitts	TE	ATL	11.48	8.08	-3.40	4.92
20	Hayden Hurst	TE	LAC	7.97	4.71	-3.26	4.72
21	Darren Waller	TE	MIA	10.43	9.43	-1.00	4.56
22	Robert Tonyan	TE	KC	6.36	1.83	-4.53	4.54
23	Harrison Bryant	TE	SEA	5.25	2.71	-2.55	4.53
24	Irv Smith	TE	HOU	7.25	3.72	-3.53	4.50
25	Donald Parham	TE	PIT	3.42	5.68	+2.26	4.36
26	Tyler Higbee	TE	LA	8.42	7.23	-1.19	4.22
27	Parker Hesse	TE	DET	4.13	0.00	-4.13	4.13
28	Austin Hooper	TE	ATL	6.95	2.97	-3.97	4.12
29	Logan Thomas	TE	WAS	8.19	7.92	-0.27	4.08
30	Cade Otton	TE	TB	6.86	6.97	+0.11	4.06
31	Zach Ertz	TE	WAS	10.55	7.39	-3.17	3.98
32	Dawson Knox	TE	BUF	8.67	5.46	-3.21	3.75
33	Ian Thomas	TE	LV	5.04	1.32	-3.72	3.72
34	Adam Trautman	TE	DEN	4.76	3.67	-1.08	3.70
35	Tre' McKitty	TE	CLE	3.65	0.00	-3.65	3.65
36	Will Dissly	TE	LAC	5.23	3.09	-2.14	3.61
37	Mo Alie-Cox	TE	IND	5.28	3.51	-1.78	3.59
38	Foster Moreau	TE	HOU	6.75	3.46	-3.30	3.58
39	Kylen Granson	TE	TEN	5.03	4.87	-0.16	3.42
40	Blake Bell	TE	KC	3.37	1.66	-1.71	3.38
41	John Bates	TE	WAS	5.31	2.27	-3.04	3.34
42	Johnny Mundt	TE	PHI	4.01	4.02	+0.01	3.32
43	Daniel Bellinger	TE	TEN	6.16	3.61	-2.55	3.30
44	Noah Fant	TE	NO	6.57	4.89	-1.68	3.25
45	Pharaoh Brown	TE	ARI	3.31	3.44	+0.12	3.23
46	Tanner Hudson	TE	CIN	4.20	6.61	+2.41	3.21
47	Tyler Conklin	TE	DET	8.43	7.24	-1.19	3.21
48	Quintin Morris	TE	JAX	3.35	5.30	+1.95	3.19
49	Lawrence Cager	TE	WAS	4.36	2.72	-1.64	3.19
50	Gerald Everett	TE	CHI	8.40	7.41	-0.99	3.19
51	Marcedes Lewis	TE	DEN	4.35	2.15	-2.20	3.13
52	Josh Oliver	TE	MIN	4.78	4.10	-0.68	3.04
53	Tyler Kroft	TE	MIA	3.02	0.00	-3.02	3.02
54	Mike Gesicki	TE	CIN	5.08	4.37	-0.71	3.00
55	Josiah Deguara	TE	ARI	3.71	1.61	-2.10	2.98
56	Chig Okonkwo	TE	WAS	5.02	6.67	+1.65	2.92
57	Ko Kieft	TE	TB	2.75	0.72	-2.03	2.92
58	Tommy Tremble	TE	CAR	5.50	4.03	-1.48	2.90
59	Brevin Jordan	TE	HOU	4.55	5.09	+0.54	2.87
60	Colby Parkinson	TE	LA	4.44	4.11	-0.32	2.85
61	Brycen Hopkins	TE	LA	4.43	2.56	-1.87	2.83
62	Durham Smythe	TE	BAL	3.89	5.51	+1.62	2.83
63	Sean McKeon	TE	IND	2.74	0.00	-2.74	2.74
64	Brock Wright	TE	DET	4.51	3.12	-1.39	2.73
65	Giovanni Ricci	TE	DET	3.31	0.60	-2.71	2.71
66	Mitchell Wilcox	TE	NE	3.88	1.22	-2.66	2.66
67	Jordan Akins	TE	JAX	4.68	2.17	-2.51	2.62
68	MyCole Pruitt	TE	PIT	4.23	2.60	-1.63	2.59
69	Chris Manhertz	TE	NYG	3.06	0.51	-2.55	2.55
70	C.J. Uzomah	TE	PHI	4.22	2.48	-1.75	2.49
71	Drew Sample	TE	CIN	2.79	3.59	+0.81	2.43
72	Jesper Horsted	TE	LV	2.69	0.28	-2.41	2.41
73	Stone Smartt	TE	PHI	2.81	2.71	-0.10	2.40
74	Noah Gray	TE	KC	4.22	4.41	+0.20	2.37
75	Peyton Hendershot	TE	KC	3.33	0.97	-2.36	2.36
76	Jack Stoll	TE	CLE	3.75	1.47	-2.28	2.28
77	Trevon Wesco	TE	LV	2.60	0.62	-1.98	2.20
78	Kenny Yeboah	TE	DET	1.53	1.60	+0.07	2.05
79	Ross Dwelley	TE	CAR	3.06	1.10	-1.96	1.97
80	Eric Saubert	TE	SEA	3.29	1.40	-1.89	1.89
81	Jeremy Ruckert	TE	NYJ	2.03	3.11	+1.08	1.79
82	Cole Turner	TE	MIA	2.83	2.88	+0.04	1.76
83	Teagan Quitoriano	TE	ARI	3.51	1.77	-1.74	1.74
84	Charlie Woerner	TE	ATL	2.19	0.62	-1.57	1.73
85	Luke Farrell	TE	SF	3.03	2.85	-0.18	1.72
86	Stephen Anderson	TE	LAC	1.66	0.00	-1.66	1.66
87	Kevin Rader	TE	TEN	1.88	0.23	-1.65	1.65
88	Stephen Sullivan	TE	CAR	2.45	2.45	-0.00	1.56
89	Grant Calcaterra	TE	PHI	3.52	2.63	-0.89	1.41
90	Nick Vannett	TE	LA	2.65	1.30	-1.35	1.35
91	James Mitchell	TE	CAR	3.71	2.40	-1.31	1.31
92	Geoff Swaim	TE	CLE	3.58	2.51	-1.07	1.25