Predicted vs. actual

A weekly backtest of the model. Per-position MAE, calibration by predicted-points decile, residual distribution, and rank fidelity.

Position

All QB RB WR TE

Format

PPR Standard

Season

2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020

QB MAE

6.89

532 weeks · -0.17 bias

RB MAE

5.32

1,170 weeks · +0.15 bias

WR MAE

5.32

1,852 weeks · +0.08 bias

TE MAE

3.96

1,002 weeks · +0.09 bias

Diagnostics — TE · 1,002 weeks

MAE

3.96

lower is better

RMSE

5.21

penalizes large misses

Calibration · predicted vs. actual by decile

Each point is a decile of predicted points. A well-calibrated model sits on the 45° line — points above mean the model under-predicts; below, it over-predicts.

Residual distribution · actual − predicted

How miss-magnitudes spread out. Mass left of zero = over-predicted weeks; mass right = under-predicted. Centered, narrow = good.

< −15

0 (0%)

−15 to −10

10 (1%)

−10 to −5

107 (11%)

−5 to −2

299 (30%)

−2 to 0

184 (18%)

0 to 2

127 (13%)

2 to 5

126 (13%)

Per-decile error decomposition

Rows are predicted-points deciles (D1 = bottom 10% of predictions, D10 = top 10%). Bias is the model's systematic over- or under-shoot within that bucket.

Decile	n	Pred (μ)	Actual (μ)	Bias	MAE	RMSE
D1	101	2.25	2.63	-0.38	2.31	3.40
D2	101	2.74	2.90	-0.15	2.67	3.69
D3	100	3.16	3.34	-0.18	2.94	3.77
D4	100	3.69	4.27	-0.58	3.41	4.35
D5	100	4.36	3.95	+0.41	3.23	4.19
D6	100	5.11	5.22	-0.12	4.25	5.84
D7	100	6.66	6.48	+0.18	4.84	6.02
D8	100	8.53	7.74	+0.79	4.75	6.00
D9	100	9.69	9.61	+0.08	5.27	6.42
D10	100	12.10	11.20	+0.90	6.00	6.98

No.	Player	Pos	Team	Pred ppg	Actual ppg	Δ ppg	MAE↓
1	George Kittle	TE	SF	11.16	15.77	+4.61	7.30
2	Gerald Everett	TE	CHI	7.96	0.82	-7.13	7.13
3	Jonnu Smith	TE	PIT	7.76	12.41	+4.65	7.13
4	David Njoku	TE	CLE	10.44	13.50	+3.06	7.11
5	Luke Musgrave	TE	GB	8.71	1.64	-7.07	7.07
6	Cole Kmet	TE	CHI	10.70	7.53	-3.18	6.91
7	Trey McBride	TE	ARI	9.63	15.24	+5.61	6.82
8	T.J. Hockenson	TE	MIN	13.77	8.65	-5.12	6.39
9	Travis Kelce	TE	KC	14.24	12.21	-2.03	6.30
10	Mike Gesicki	TE	CIN	4.92	9.07	+4.15	6.15
11	Cade Otton	TE	TB	8.93	10.04	+1.11	5.92
12	Kyle Pitts	TE	ATL	10.13	7.72	-2.42	5.80
13	Mark Andrews	TE	BAL	11.36	11.11	-0.25	5.57
14	Tucker Kraft	TE	GB	5.50	9.61	+4.11	5.38
15	Tyler Conklin	TE	DET	9.19	7.62	-1.57	5.11
16	Sam LaPorta	TE	DET	12.00	10.91	-1.09	5.02
17	Will Dissly	TE	LAC	2.75	7.29	+4.55	5.01
18	Isaiah Likely	TE	NYG	5.20	8.25	+3.05	4.98
19	Hunter Henry	TE	NE	8.85	9.09	+0.23	4.98
20	Durham Smythe	TE	BAL	5.95	1.02	-4.92	4.92
21	Tanner Hudson	TE	CIN	7.02	4.28	-2.75	4.92
22	Adam Trautman	TE	DEN	5.48	3.37	-2.11	4.82
23	Zach Ertz	TE	WAS	8.67	9.92	+1.25	4.76
24	Noah Gray	TE	KC	4.77	7.08	+2.31	4.66
25	Jake Ferguson	TE	DAL	9.83	7.46	-2.38	4.62
26	Chig Okonkwo	TE	WAS	8.51	7.10	-1.41	4.62
27	Foster Moreau	TE	HOU	3.75	6.46	+2.70	4.55
28	Brenton Strange	TE	JAX	3.28	6.51	+3.22	4.40
29	Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	9.54	10.36	+0.82	4.38
30	Pat Freiermuth	TE	PIT	7.65	10.02	+2.37	4.36
31	Stephen Sullivan	TE	CAR	4.23	0.00	-4.23	4.23
32	Tyler Higbee	TE	LA	10.00	8.87	-1.14	4.17
33	Josh Oliver	TE	MIN	3.48	5.48	+2.01	4.07
34	Jordan Akins	TE	JAX	2.38	5.69	+3.31	4.06
35	Luke Schoonmaker	TE	DAL	2.98	4.76	+1.78	3.98
36	Payne Durham	TE	TB	2.83	4.31	+1.48	3.88
37	Austin Hooper	TE	ATL	3.85	6.20	+2.35	3.80
38	Kylen Granson	TE	TEN	5.33	2.01	-3.32	3.75
39	Michael Mayer	TE	LV	5.57	3.33	-2.24	3.73
40	Will Mallory	TE	IND	4.61	0.99	-3.63	3.63
41	Daniel Bellinger	TE	TEN	4.62	2.21	-2.41	3.57
42	C.J. Uzomah	TE	PHI	3.54	0.00	-3.54	3.54
43	Evan Engram	TE	DEN	11.55	9.94	-1.60	3.53
44	Noah Fant	TE	NO	4.57	7.43	+2.86	3.46
45	Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	8.23	6.95	-1.27	3.43
46	Josh Whyle	TE	GB	3.88	4.05	+0.17	3.34
47	Juwan Johnson	TE	NO	8.58	8.19	-0.39	3.28
48	Davis Allen	TE	LA	3.21	1.41	-1.79	3.27
49	Hayden Hurst	TE	LAC	5.39	2.19	-3.20	3.21
50	Tommy Tremble	TE	CAR	4.37	5.64	+1.27	3.10
51	Brevin Jordan	TE	HOU	4.39	1.35	-3.04	3.04
52	Grant Calcaterra	TE	PHI	2.45	3.99	+1.54	3.04
53	Mo Alie-Cox	TE	IND	3.62	2.73	-0.89	3.01
54	Dalton Kincaid	TE	BUF	8.77	7.75	-1.01	2.96
55	Andrew Ogletree	TE	IND	4.40	2.16	-2.24	2.94
56	Colby Parkinson	TE	LA	4.21	4.09	-0.12	2.90
57	Brock Wright	TE	DET	3.84	3.18	-0.65	2.79
58	Quintin Morris	TE	JAX	3.04	1.46	-1.58	2.77
59	Stone Smartt	TE	PHI	3.07	3.87	+0.80	2.75
60	Ko Kieft	TE	TB	2.73	0.00	-2.73	2.73
61	Eric Saubert	TE	SEA	2.59	2.30	-0.29	2.72
62	Dawson Knox	TE	BUF	5.52	4.22	-1.30	2.70
63	Charlie Kolar	TE	LAC	2.51	2.83	+0.32	2.60
64	Greg Dulcich	TE	MIA	4.34	1.95	-2.39	2.57
65	John Bates	TE	WAS	3.62	1.11	-2.51	2.53
66	Marcedes Lewis	TE	DEN	2.76	0.24	-2.52	2.52
67	Drew Sample	TE	CIN	3.68	3.32	-0.36	2.50
68	Nate Adkins	TE	DEN	2.46	2.90	+0.44	2.37
69	Geoff Swaim	TE	CLE	2.90	0.57	-2.33	2.33
70	Jeremy Ruckert	TE	NYJ	4.34	2.04	-2.31	2.32
71	Jack Stoll	TE	CLE	2.91	0.60	-2.31	2.31
72	MyCole Pruitt	TE	PIT	3.29	2.29	-1.00	2.29
73	Ben Sims	TE	MIA	2.73	2.05	-0.68	2.19
74	Darnell Washington	TE	PIT	3.09	3.46	+0.37	2.13
75	Kenny Yeboah	TE	DET	1.76	2.24	+0.48	2.12
76	Johnny Mundt	TE	PHI	3.36	3.23	-0.13	2.11
77	Chris Manhertz	TE	NYG	2.19	1.50	-0.69	2.08
78	Josiah Deguara	TE	ARI	2.67	0.63	-2.04	2.04
79	Rod Williams	TE	PIT	1.96	0.00	-1.96	1.96
80	Elijah Higgins	TE	ARI	2.90	3.28	+0.38	1.93
81	Ross Dwelley	TE	CAR	2.28	0.38	-1.91	1.91
82	Lucas Krull	TE	DEN	4.54	3.42	-1.12	1.87
83	Harrison Bryant	TE	SEA	3.18	2.93	-0.25	1.85
84	Pharaoh Brown	TE	ARI	2.79	1.21	-1.58	1.82
85	Luke Farrell	TE	SF	2.94	1.56	-1.38	1.70
86	Julian Hill	TE	NE	2.35	1.57	-0.78	1.66
87	Ian Thomas	TE	LV	2.60	1.23	-1.37	1.37
88	Peyton Hendershot	TE	KC	2.09	2.02	-0.07	1.09
89	Charlie Woerner	TE	ATL	1.80	1.05	-0.75	1.08
90	Tucker Fisk	TE	LAC	2.54	1.53	-1.01	1.01