A weekly backtest of the model. Mean absolute error per position, plus the players where we were most and least correct.
| No. | Player | Pos | Team | Pred ppg | Actual ppg | Δ ppg | MAE↓ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Njoku | TE | CLE | 14.40 | 7.85 | -6.56 | 8.72 |
| 2 | Trey McBride |
| TE |
| ARI |
| 12.83 |
| 18.58 |
| +5.75 |
| 7.95 |
| 3 | Darren Waller | TE | MIA | 9.09 | 9.86 | +0.77 | 7.79 |
| 4 | Sam LaPorta | TE | DET | 9.74 | 11.88 | +2.14 | 7.71 |
| 5 | Evan Engram | TE | DEN | 13.67 | 6.42 | -7.25 | 7.40 |
| 6 | Jake Tonges | TE | SF | 2.63 | 9.33 | +6.70 | 7.31 |
| 7 | Brock Bowers | TE | LV | 11.95 | 14.68 | +2.73 | 7.16 |
| 8 | Tucker Kraft | TE | GB | 13.08 | 14.65 | +1.57 | 7.12 |
| 9 | Devin Culp | TE | TB | 8.88 | 1.90 | -6.98 | 6.98 |
| 10 | Colby Parkinson | TE | LA | 3.97 | 9.27 | +5.30 | 6.76 |
| 11 | Dallas Goedert | TE | PHI | 9.08 | 12.34 | +3.26 | 6.68 |
| 12 | T.J. Hockenson | TE | MIN | 13.05 | 7.52 | -5.53 | 6.57 |
| 13 | Dalton Kincaid | TE | BUF | 8.87 | 10.51 | +1.64 | 6.55 |
| 14 | Jonnu Smith | TE | PIT | 11.06 | 5.01 | -6.05 | 6.43 |
| 15 | George Kittle | TE | SF | 11.31 | 14.68 | +3.38 | 6.40 |
| 16 | Colston Loveland | TE | CHI | 7.29 | 10.32 | +3.03 | 6.19 |
| 17 | Isaiah Likely | TE | NYG | 10.00 | 4.47 | -5.53 | 6.18 |
| 18 | AJ Barner | TE | SEA | 4.05 | 8.66 | +4.62 | 5.93 |
| 19 | Travis Kelce | TE | KC | 10.84 | 11.36 | +0.53 | 5.91 |
| 20 | Mark Andrews | TE | BAL | 8.37 | 7.71 | -0.66 | 5.91 |
| 21 | Kyle Pitts | TE | ATL | 9.19 | 12.40 | +3.21 | 5.73 |
| 22 | Brenton Strange | TE | JAX | 4.46 | 9.83 | +5.38 | 5.68 |
| 23 | Oronde Gadsden II | TE | LAC | 7.24 | 8.76 | +1.52 | 5.68 |
| 24 | Cade Otton | TE | TB | 9.65 | 8.15 | -1.51 | 5.66 |
| 25 | Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | CLE | 9.96 | 11.65 | +1.70 | 5.34 |
| 26 | Hunter Henry | TE | NE | 8.72 | 10.52 | +1.80 | 5.33 |
| 27 | Jake Ferguson | TE | DAL | 11.54 | 11.06 | -0.48 | 5.15 |
| 28 | Jelani Woods | TE | NYJ | 5.78 | 0.70 | -5.08 | 5.08 |
| 29 | Dalton Schultz | TE | HOU | 8.29 | 10.45 | +2.17 | 5.05 |
| 30 | Terrance Ferguson | TE | LA | 4.61 | 4.74 | +0.13 | 5.02 |
| 31 | Mason Taylor | TE | NYJ | 7.53 | 6.84 | -0.69 | 4.82 |
| 32 | Pat Freiermuth | TE | PIT | 9.23 | 7.57 | -1.66 | 4.80 |
| 33 | Sal Cannella | TE | CLE | 6.34 | 1.55 | -4.79 | 4.79 |
| 34 | Tyler Conklin | TE | DET | 7.51 | 2.88 | -4.62 | 4.70 |
| 35 | Tyler Warren | TE | IND | 9.87 | 11.09 | +1.22 | 4.57 |
| 36 | Michael Mayer | TE | LV | 4.43 | 5.68 | +1.25 | 4.47 |
| 37 | Mike Gesicki | TE | CIN | 6.54 | 5.89 | -0.64 | 4.39 |
| 38 | Noah Fant | TE | NO | 7.13 | 5.68 | -1.44 | 4.38 |
| 39 | Zach Ertz | TE | WAS | 7.26 | 9.72 | +2.47 | 4.32 |
| 40 | Tyler Higbee | TE | LA | 7.67 | 7.11 | -0.57 | 4.32 |
| 41 | Theo Johnson | TE | NYG | 6.43 | 8.52 | +2.09 | 4.26 |
| 42 | Daniel Bellinger | TE | TEN | 3.78 | 4.82 | +1.04 | 4.21 |
| 43 | Kylen Granson | TE | TEN | 4.38 | 1.00 | -3.38 | 4.12 |
| 44 | Dawson Knox | TE | BUF | 3.95 | 6.48 | +2.53 | 3.96 |
| 45 | Albert Okwuegbunam | TE | LV | 4.68 | 8.60 | +3.92 | 3.92 |
| 46 | Josh Oliver | TE | MIN | 3.80 | 4.58 | +0.79 | 3.85 |
| 47 | Chig Okonkwo | TE | WAS | 7.31 | 7.31 | +0.01 | 3.58 |
| 48 | Juwan Johnson | TE | NO | 8.33 | 10.58 | +2.25 | 3.57 |
| 49 | Tommy Tremble | TE | CAR | 4.76 | 4.26 | -0.50 | 3.57 |
| 50 | Ja'Tavion Sanders | TE | CAR | 6.47 | 4.50 | -1.97 | 3.45 |
| 51 | Durham Smythe | TE | BAL | 4.35 | 0.93 | -3.43 | 3.43 |
| 52 | Brock Wright | TE | DET | 3.35 | 4.60 | +1.25 | 3.40 |
| 53 | Gunnar Helm | TE | TEN | 4.50 | 5.73 | +1.23 | 3.37 |
| 54 | Cole Kmet | TE | CHI | 6.90 | 4.92 | -1.98 | 3.33 |
| 55 | Hunter Long | TE | JAX | 1.41 | 4.64 | +3.24 | 3.29 |
| 56 | Payne Durham | TE | TB | 3.46 | 0.26 | -3.19 | 3.19 |
| 57 | Pharaoh Brown | TE | ARI | 3.58 | 0.42 | -3.16 | 3.16 |
| 58 | Josiah Deguara | TE | ARI | 2.92 | 1.59 | -1.33 | 3.12 |
| 59 | Elijah Arroyo | TE | SEA | 4.80 | 2.84 | -1.96 | 3.10 |
| 60 | Grant Calcaterra | TE | PHI | 4.15 | 2.51 | -1.64 | 3.07 |
| 61 | Blake Whiteheart | TE | CLE | 3.28 | 0.27 | -3.01 | 3.01 |
| 62 | Andrew Ogletree | TE | IND | 2.97 | 1.15 | -1.81 | 2.96 |
| 63 | Darnell Washington | TE | PIT | 2.98 | 5.65 | +2.67 | 2.95 |
| 64 | Stone Smartt | TE | PHI | 3.49 | 2.03 | -1.46 | 2.88 |
| 65 | Luke Farrell | TE | SF | 3.13 | 2.27 | -0.86 | 2.84 |
| 66 | Austin Hooper | TE | ATL | 5.64 | 4.56 | -1.08 | 2.82 |
| 67 | Josh Whyle | TE | GB | 3.70 | 2.43 | -1.26 | 2.80 |
| 68 | Greg Dulcich | TE | MIA | 7.83 | 6.98 | -0.85 | 2.75 |
| 69 | Charlie Kolar | TE | LAC | 3.62 | 3.02 | -0.60 | 2.71 |
| 70 | Nate Adkins | TE | DEN | 2.36 | 2.80 | +0.44 | 2.67 |
| 71 | Harrison Bryant | TE | SEA | 3.29 | 0.68 | -2.61 | 2.61 |
| 72 | Elijah Higgins | TE | ARI | 3.12 | 3.42 | +0.30 | 2.55 |
| 73 | Davis Allen | TE | LA | 4.10 | 4.19 | +0.08 | 2.53 |
| 74 | Drew Sample | TE | CIN | 3.62 | 2.66 | -0.96 | 2.50 |
| 75 | Nick Kallerup | TE | SEA | 2.45 | 0.00 | -2.45 | 2.45 |
| 76 | Marcedes Lewis | TE | DEN | 2.40 | 0.00 | -2.40 | 2.40 |
| 77 | Tanner Hudson | TE | CIN | 5.75 | 4.78 | -0.97 | 2.39 |
| 78 | Adam Trautman | TE | DEN | 2.73 | 3.50 | +0.77 | 2.38 |
| 79 | Brevyn Spann-Ford | TE | DAL | 2.85 | 1.50 | -1.35 | 2.37 |
| 80 | Anthony Firkser | TE | DET | 3.60 | 2.66 | -0.94 | 2.37 |
| 81 | Quintin Morris | TE | JAX | 3.02 | 1.59 | -1.43 | 2.35 |
| 82 | John FitzPatrick | TE | GB | 3.29 | 2.29 | -1.00 | 2.30 |
| 83 | Mitchell Evans | TE | CAR | 3.29 | 3.44 | +0.16 | 2.29 |
| 84 | Jack Westover | TE | NE | 2.52 | 0.25 | -2.27 | 2.27 |
| 85 | Noah Gray | TE | KC | 4.05 | 2.77 | -1.28 | 2.27 |
| 86 | Mo Alie-Cox | TE | IND | 3.19 | 2.79 | -0.40 | 2.23 |
| 87 | Luke Musgrave | TE | GB | 4.11 | 3.78 | -0.32 | 2.21 |
| 88 | Ross Dwelley | TE | CAR | 2.61 | 0.43 | -2.18 | 2.18 |
| 89 | Will Dissly | TE | LAC | 4.70 | 2.59 | -2.11 | 2.15 |
| 90 | Jack Stoll | TE | CLE | 2.14 | 1.84 | -0.29 | 2.12 |
| 91 | Jackson Hawes | TE | BUF | 3.95 | 4.05 | +0.11 | 2.06 |
| 92 | John Bates | TE | WAS | 2.16 | 2.73 | +0.57 | 1.93 |
| 93 | Keleki Latu | TE | BUF | 1.39 | 2.50 | +1.11 | 1.91 |
| 94 | Ian Thomas | TE | LV | 3.27 | 2.71 | -0.56 | 1.87 |
| 95 | Ben Sinnott | TE | WAS | 2.70 | 3.16 | +0.45 | 1.84 |
| 96 | Jeremy Ruckert | TE | NYJ | 3.31 | 3.35 | +0.04 | 1.82 |
| 97 | Shane Zylstra | TE | DET | 3.20 | 5.00 | +1.80 | 1.80 |
| 98 | Teagan Quitoriano | TE | ARI | 1.78 | 0.00 | -1.78 | 1.78 |
| 99 | Cade Stover | TE | HOU | 2.52 | 3.32 | +0.80 | 1.75 |
| 100 | Carter Runyon | TE | LV | 2.18 | 0.43 | -1.75 | 1.75 |
| 101 | Luke Schoonmaker | TE | DAL | 3.03 | 1.94 | -1.09 | 1.72 |
| 102 | Lucas Krull | TE | DEN | 3.26 | 1.75 | -1.51 | 1.68 |
| 103 | Feleipe Franks | TE | CAR | 1.72 | 0.04 | -1.67 | 1.67 |
| 104 | Charlie Woerner | TE | ATL | 2.59 | 1.83 | -0.76 | 1.65 |
| 105 | Julian Hill | TE | NE | 2.46 | 2.82 | +0.36 | 1.63 |
| 106 | Foster Moreau | TE | HOU | 3.18 | 1.83 | -1.35 | 1.63 |
| 107 | Jared Wiley | TE | KC | 2.31 | 0.70 | -1.61 | 1.60 |
| 108 | Johnny Mundt | TE | PHI | 3.19 | 1.83 | -1.36 | 1.56 |
| 109 | David Martin-Robinson | TE | TEN | 1.56 | 1.18 | -0.38 | 1.56 |
| 110 | Cam Grandy | TE | CIN | 2.84 | 1.35 | -1.49 | 1.49 |
| 111 | Brenden Bates | TE | CLE | 2.15 | 1.76 | -0.39 | 1.46 |
| 112 | E.J. Jenkins | TE | PHI | 1.46 | 0.00 | -1.46 | 1.46 |
| 113 | Tip Reiman | TE | ARI | 2.78 | 1.60 | -1.18 | 1.40 |
| 114 | Robert Tonyan | TE | KC | 1.95 | 0.55 | -1.40 | 1.40 |
| 115 | James Mitchell | TE | CAR | 2.61 | 2.90 | +0.29 | 1.29 |
| 116 | Brayden Willis | TE | SF | 1.28 | 0.00 | -1.28 | 1.28 |
| 117 | Ko Kieft | TE | TB | 1.27 | 0.00 | -1.27 | 1.27 |
| 118 | Tanner Conner | TE | NYG | 2.53 | 2.26 | -0.27 | 1.27 |
| 119 | Tucker Fisk | TE | LAC | 2.22 | 0.97 | -1.25 | 1.25 |
| 120 | Colson Yankoff | TE | WAS | 1.36 | 0.38 | -0.98 | 1.23 |
| 121 | Eric Saubert | TE | SEA | 1.56 | 1.01 | -0.54 | 1.18 |
| 122 | Chris Manhertz | TE | NYG | 1.18 | 0.42 | -0.75 | 1.09 |
| 123 | Ben Yurosek | TE | MIN | 1.06 | 0.57 | -0.50 | 0.96 |
| 124 | Ben Sims | TE | MIA | 2.21 | 2.00 | -0.21 | 0.95 |
| 125 | Cameron Latu | TE | PHI | 0.82 | 0.00 | -0.82 | 0.82 |
| 126 | Giovanni Ricci | TE | DET | 0.81 | 0.00 | -0.81 | 0.81 |
| 127 | Princeton Fant | TE | DAL | 0.79 | 0.00 | -0.79 | 0.79 |
| 128 | Zaire Mitchell-Paden | TE | NO | 1.44 | 1.23 | -0.20 | 0.78 |
| 129 | Justin Shorter | TE | LV | 0.72 | 0.00 | -0.72 | 0.72 |
| 130 | Will Mallory | TE | IND | 3.18 | 2.60 | -0.58 | 0.58 |
| 131 | Nikola Kalinic | TE | CHI | 0.56 | 0.00 | -0.56 | 0.56 |