Predicted vs. actual

A weekly backtest of the model. Per-position MAE, calibration by predicted-points decile, residual distribution, and rank fidelity.

Position

All QB RB WR TE

Format

PPR Standard

Season

2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020

QB MAE

7.09

662 weeks · -0.01 bias

RB MAE

5.01

1,545 weeks · +0.89 bias

WR MAE

4.60

2,484 weeks · +0.72 bias

TE MAE

3.74

1,269 weeks · +0.28 bias

Diagnostics — TE · 1,269 weeks

MAE

3.74

lower is better

RMSE

5.13

penalizes large misses

Calibration · predicted vs. actual by decile

Each point is a decile of predicted points. A well-calibrated model sits on the 45° line — points above mean the model under-predicts; below, it over-predicts.

Residual distribution · actual − predicted

How miss-magnitudes spread out. Mass left of zero = over-predicted weeks; mass right = under-predicted. Centered, narrow = good.

< −15

0 (0%)

−15 to −10

7 (1%)

−10 to −5

130 (10%)

−5 to −2

380 (30%)

−2 to 0

315 (25%)

0 to 2

139 (11%)

2 to 5

135 (11%)

Per-decile error decomposition

Rows are predicted-points deciles (D1 = bottom 10% of predictions, D10 = top 10%). Bias is the model's systematic over- or under-shoot within that bucket.

Decile	n	Pred (μ)	Actual (μ)	Bias	MAE	RMSE
D1	127	1.64	1.51	+0.13	2.04	3.33
D2	127	2.67	2.40	+0.27	2.14	2.93
D3	127	3.10	2.66	+0.44	2.58	3.23
D4	127	3.83	3.05	+0.78	2.52	3.17
D5	127	4.60	5.16	-0.57	3.94	5.26
D6	127	5.61	4.93	+0.68	3.84	4.92
D7	127	7.06	6.70	+0.36	4.23	5.13
D8	127	8.49	8.94	-0.45	5.06	6.62
D9	127	9.55	8.75	+0.80	5.16	6.69
D10	126	12.73	12.41	+0.32	5.86	7.48

Model versions in this slice

xgboost_te_20260516_031155TE:1993

xgboost_te_20260516_025358TE:15

random_forest_te_20260515_011435TE:340

random_forest_te_20260515_112825TE:68

random_forest_te_20260515_015130TE:510

No.	Player	Pos	Team	Pred ppg	Actual ppg	Δ ppg	MAE↓
1	Jake Tonges	TE	SF	1.47	9.33	+7.86	8.16
2	Darren Waller	TE	MIA	9.09	9.86	+0.77	7.79
3	Tucker Kraft	TE	GB	9.04	14.65	+5.62	7.61
4	Trey McBride	TE	ARI	17.68	18.58	+0.91	6.80
5	Kyle Pitts	TE	ATL	9.30	12.40	+3.10	6.45
6	Devin Culp	TE	TB	8.33	1.90	-6.43	6.43
7	George Kittle	TE	SF	12.98	14.68	+1.70	6.41
8	Colby Parkinson	TE	LA	5.45	9.27	+3.82	6.23
9	Colston Loveland	TE	CHI	7.29	10.32	+3.03	6.19
10	Brock Bowers	TE	LV	13.05	14.68	+1.63	6.18
11	AJ Barner	TE	SEA	4.46	8.66	+4.21	5.71
12	Travis Kelce	TE	KC	13.26	11.36	-1.90	5.69
13	Oronde Gadsden II	TE	LAC	7.24	8.76	+1.52	5.68
14	Cade Otton	TE	TB	10.55	8.15	-2.41	5.66
15	Jake Ferguson	TE	DAL	8.59	11.06	+2.48	5.64
16	Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	10.23	12.34	+2.11	5.58
17	Hunter Henry	TE	NE	11.24	10.52	-0.72	5.42
18	Harold Fannin Jr.	TE	CLE	9.96	11.65	+1.70	5.34
19	Dalton Kincaid	TE	BUF	9.73	10.51	+0.78	5.21
20	Sam LaPorta	TE	DET	10.07	11.88	+1.81	5.17
21	Mark Andrews	TE	BAL	8.38	7.71	-0.68	5.15
22	Jelani Woods	TE	NYJ	5.78	0.70	-5.08	5.08
23	Terrance Ferguson	TE	LA	4.61	4.74	+0.13	5.02
24	Brenton Strange	TE	JAX	6.23	9.83	+3.61	4.96
25	Theo Johnson	TE	NYG	8.04	8.52	+0.48	4.94
26	Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	8.63	10.45	+1.82	4.93
27	Jonnu Smith	TE	PIT	9.01	5.01	-4.00	4.84
28	Mason Taylor	TE	NYJ	7.53	6.84	-0.69	4.82
29	Sal Cannella	TE	CLE	6.34	1.55	-4.79	4.79
30	Tyler Conklin	TE	DET	7.67	2.88	-4.78	4.78
31	Mike Gesicki	TE	CIN	7.81	5.89	-1.91	4.70
32	Zach Ertz	TE	WAS	9.54	9.72	+0.18	4.68
33	David Njoku	TE	CLE	10.07	7.85	-2.22	4.66
34	Pat Freiermuth	TE	PIT	8.94	7.57	-1.36	4.60
35	Tyler Warren	TE	IND	9.87	11.09	+1.22	4.57
36	Tyler Higbee	TE	LA	4.86	7.11	+2.25	4.52
37	Foster Moreau	TE	HOU	6.33	1.84	-4.49	4.49
38	Grant Calcaterra	TE	PHI	6.04	2.51	-3.53	4.41
39	Noah Fant	TE	NO	7.76	5.75	-2.01	4.29
40	Juwan Johnson	TE	NO	8.57	10.58	+2.01	4.21
41	Isaiah Likely	TE	NYG	7.46	5.14	-2.32	4.19
42	Michael Mayer	TE	LV	5.54	5.68	+0.14	4.05
43	Will Dissly	TE	LAC	6.60	2.59	-4.02	4.01
44	Evan Engram	TE	DEN	8.93	6.42	-2.50	3.95
45	Cole Kmet	TE	CHI	8.16	4.92	-3.24	3.95
46	Josh Oliver	TE	MIN	5.09	4.58	-0.50	3.94
47	Albert Okwuegbunam	TE	LV	4.68	8.60	+3.92	3.92
48	Tommy Tremble	TE	CAR	5.40	4.26	-1.14	3.89
49	Stone Smartt	TE	PHI	4.65	2.03	-2.62	3.87
50	T.J. Hockenson	TE	MIN	10.17	7.52	-2.65	3.81
51	Dawson Knox	TE	BUF	5.59	6.48	+0.89	3.66
52	Harrison Bryant	TE	SEA	4.12	0.54	-3.58	3.58
53	Daniel Bellinger	TE	TEN	2.92	4.58	+1.66	3.51
54	Shane Zylstra	TE	DET	1.54	5.00	+3.46	3.46
55	Payne Durham	TE	TB	3.65	0.26	-3.38	3.38
56	Gunnar Helm	TE	TEN	4.50	5.73	+1.23	3.37
57	Chig Okonkwo	TE	WAS	7.17	7.29	+0.12	3.33
58	Brock Wright	TE	DET	4.67	4.60	-0.07	3.33
59	Nate Adkins	TE	DEN	4.06	2.80	-1.26	3.27
60	Kylen Granson	TE	TEN	3.50	0.92	-2.58	3.12
61	Elijah Arroyo	TE	SEA	4.80	2.84	-1.96	3.10
62	Ja'Tavion Sanders	TE	CAR	4.31	4.50	+0.19	3.05
63	Mo Alie-Cox	TE	IND	4.38	2.79	-1.59	3.03
64	Noah Gray	TE	KC	5.73	2.77	-2.96	3.01
65	Blake Whiteheart	TE	CLE	3.27	0.27	-3.00	3.00
66	Luke Schoonmaker	TE	DAL	4.84	1.94	-2.90	2.90
67	Josh Whyle	TE	GB	4.41	2.43	-1.98	2.87
68	Andrew Ogletree	TE	IND	2.90	1.15	-1.75	2.82
69	Hunter Long	TE	JAX	2.66	4.64	+1.98	2.71
70	Davis Allen	TE	LA	2.95	4.19	+1.24	2.71
71	Elijah Higgins	TE	ARI	2.95	3.42	+0.47	2.67
72	Johnny Mundt	TE	PHI	4.25	1.68	-2.58	2.63
73	Brevyn Spann-Ford	TE	DAL	3.33	1.50	-1.83	2.63
74	Luke Farrell	TE	SF	2.82	2.27	-0.55	2.61
75	Drew Sample	TE	CIN	3.90	2.66	-1.24	2.59
76	Austin Hooper	TE	ATL	5.93	4.56	-1.37	2.59
77	Greg Dulcich	TE	MIA	6.24	6.98	+0.74	2.51
78	Nick Kallerup	TE	SEA	2.45	0.00	-2.45	2.45
79	Darnell Washington	TE	PIT	4.29	5.65	+1.36	2.38
80	Anthony Firkser	TE	DET	3.60	2.66	-0.94	2.37
81	Jack Stoll	TE	CLE	2.49	1.84	-0.64	2.36
82	Tanner Hudson	TE	CIN	4.60	4.78	+0.18	2.35
83	Charlie Kolar	TE	LAC	3.03	2.78	-0.24	2.34
84	Josiah Deguara	TE	ARI	1.58	1.59	+0.00	2.31
85	John FitzPatrick	TE	GB	3.29	2.29	-1.00	2.30
86	Mitchell Evans	TE	CAR	3.29	3.44	+0.16	2.29
87	Jack Westover	TE	NE	2.52	0.25	-2.27	2.27
88	E.J. Jenkins	TE	PHI	2.27	0.00	-2.27	2.27
89	Lucas Krull	TE	DEN	4.00	1.75	-2.25	2.25
90	Luke Musgrave	TE	GB	2.45	3.78	+1.34	2.24
91	Adam Trautman	TE	DEN	3.65	3.50	-0.15	2.23
92	Jackson Hawes	TE	BUF	3.95	4.05	+0.11	2.06
93	Pharaoh Brown	TE	ARI	2.45	0.42	-2.03	2.03
94	Ian Thomas	TE	LV	3.58	2.71	-0.87	2.03
95	Quintin Morris	TE	JAX	2.34	1.59	-0.75	2.00
96	Chris Manhertz	TE	NYG	2.38	0.42	-1.95	1.96
97	Keleki Latu	TE	BUF	1.39	2.50	+1.11	1.91
98	David Martin-Robinson	TE	TEN	2.09	1.18	-0.91	1.89
99	Ben Sinnott	TE	WAS	2.84	3.16	+0.32	1.84
100	Julian Hill	TE	NE	3.40	2.82	-0.58	1.82
101	Eric Saubert	TE	SEA	2.79	1.01	-1.77	1.81
102	Cade Stover	TE	HOU	3.42	3.32	-0.11	1.81
103	Teagan Quitoriano	TE	ARI	1.78	0.00	-1.78	1.78
104	Tucker Fisk	TE	LAC	2.75	0.97	-1.78	1.78
105	Charlie Woerner	TE	ATL	2.67	1.83	-0.85	1.76
106	Durham Smythe	TE	BAL	2.68	0.93	-1.75	1.75
107	Carter Runyon	TE	LV	2.18	0.43	-1.75	1.75
108	John Bates	TE	WAS	2.85	2.73	-0.12	1.73
109	Jeremy Ruckert	TE	NYJ	3.15	3.35	+0.20	1.72
110	Marcedes Lewis	TE	DEN	1.72	0.00	-1.72	1.72
111	Feleipe Franks	TE	CAR	1.73	0.04	-1.69	1.69
112	Jared Wiley	TE	KC	2.31	0.70	-1.61	1.60
113	Ko Kieft	TE	TB	1.51	0.00	-1.51	1.51
114	Brayden Willis	TE	SF	1.49	0.00	-1.49	1.49
115	Brenden Bates	TE	CLE	2.15	1.76	-0.39	1.46
116	Robert Tonyan	TE	KC	1.95	0.55	-1.40	1.40
117	Tanner Conner	TE	NYG	2.93	2.26	-0.67	1.30
118	Colson Yankoff	TE	WAS	1.50	0.38	-1.12	1.29
119	James Mitchell	TE	CAR	2.61	2.90	+0.29	1.29
120	Cam Grandy	TE	CIN	2.61	1.35	-1.26	1.26
121	Ben Sims	TE	MIA	3.22	2.00	-1.22	1.22
122	Ross Dwelley	TE	CAR	1.74	0.68	-1.06	1.06
123	Tip Reiman	TE	ARI	2.32	1.60	-0.72	1.04
124	Ben Yurosek	TE	MIN	1.06	0.57	-0.50	0.96
125	Cameron Latu	TE	PHI	0.82	0.00	-0.82	0.82
126	Giovanni Ricci	TE	DET	0.81	0.00	-0.81	0.81
127	Princeton Fant	TE	DAL	0.79	0.00	-0.79	0.79
128	Zaire Mitchell-Paden	TE	NO	1.44	1.23	-0.20	0.78
129	Justin Shorter	TE	LV	0.72	0.00	-0.72	0.72
130	Nikola Kalinic	TE	CHI	0.56	0.00	-0.56	0.56
131	Will Mallory	TE	IND	2.37	2.60	+0.23	0.23