Predicted vs. actual

A weekly backtest of the model. Per-position MAE, calibration by predicted-points decile, residual distribution, and rank fidelity.

Position

All QB RB WR TE

Format

PPR Standard

Season

2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020

QB MAE

6.92

499 weeks · -0.27 bias

RB MAE

5.67

1,118 weeks · +0.64 bias

WR MAE

5.52

1,688 weeks · -0.45 bias

TE MAE

4.34

947 weeks · +0.04 bias

Diagnostics — WR · 1,688 weeks

MAE

5.52

lower is better

RMSE

7.34

penalizes large misses

Calibration · predicted vs. actual by decile

Each point is a decile of predicted points. A well-calibrated model sits on the 45° line — points above mean the model under-predicts; below, it over-predicts.

Residual distribution · actual − predicted

How miss-magnitudes spread out. Mass left of zero = over-predicted weeks; mass right = under-predicted. Centered, narrow = good.

< −15

8 (0%)

−15 to −10

47 (3%)

−10 to −5

298 (18%)

−5 to −2

367 (22%)

−2 to 0

247 (15%)

0 to 2

153 (9%)

2 to 5

203

Per-decile error decomposition

Rows are predicted-points deciles (D1 = bottom 10% of predictions, D10 = top 10%). Bias is the model's systematic over- or under-shoot within that bucket.

Decile	n	Pred (μ)	Actual (μ)	Bias	MAE	RMSE
D1	169	1.77	2.21	-0.44	2.50	3.69
D2	169	3.77	4.11	-0.34	3.89	5.45
D3	169	5.69	5.23	+0.46	4.94	6.19
D4	169	6.58	5.97	+0.61	4.58	5.75
D5	169	7.47	8.25	-0.78	5.21	6.63
D6	169	8.52	9.98	-1.46	6.20	8.03
D7	169	9.62	11.12	-1.50	6.29	8.04
D8	169	11.17	13.50	-2.33	6.87	8.57
D9	168	13.83	14.31	-0.48	7.38	9.59
D10	168	16.99	15.25	+1.74	7.32	9.24

No.	Player	Pos	Team	Pred ppg	Actual ppg	Δ ppg	MAE↓
1	Davante Adams	WR	LA	15.97	25.60	+9.63	12.22
2	Julian Edelman	WR	NE	17.02	9.37	-7.65	11.09
3	Alshon Jeffery	WR	PHI	13.31	3.36	-9.95	9.95
4	Stefon Diggs	WR	NE	11.50	21.19	+9.69	9.94
5	Tajae Sharpe	WR	SF	9.87	0.00	-9.87	9.87
6	Tyler Lockett	WR	LV	13.87	16.59	+2.72	9.83
7	Calvin Ridley	WR	TEN	11.04	18.77	+7.72	9.82
8	A.J. Brown	WR	PHI	8.77	17.68	+8.91	9.67
9	Brandin Cooks	WR	BUF	7.49	15.34	+7.84	9.57
10	Diontae Johnson	WR	HOU	8.75	14.92	+6.17	9.44
11	Odell Beckham Jr.	WR	MIA	12.78	12.40	-0.37	9.24
12	DK Metcalf	WR	PIT	9.97	16.96	+6.98	9.23
13	Will Fuller	WR	MIA	10.34	17.17	+6.83	9.02
14	Adam Thielen	WR	PIT	10.96	16.93	+5.97	8.82
15	John Ross	WR	PHI	10.52	1.85	-8.67	8.67
16	JuJu Smith-Schuster	WR	KC	7.81	14.63	+6.82	8.50
17	Corey Davis	WR	NYJ	8.52	13.67	+5.16	8.39
18	Tyreek Hill	WR	MIA	15.92	21.93	+6.00	8.38
19	Michael Gallup	WR	DAL	14.81	10.83	-3.98	8.09
20	Vyncint Smith	WR	IND	8.65	0.57	-8.08	8.08
21	Dede Westbrook	WR	GB	8.70	0.70	-8.00	8.00
22	Marvin Jones	WR	DET	15.07	14.24	-0.83	7.98
23	Jamison Crowder	WR	WAS	11.25	14.34	+3.08	7.95
24	DJ Chark	WR	LAC	15.39	11.82	-3.58	7.78
25	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	WR	DAL	6.09	9.81	+3.72	7.37
26	Keenan Allen	WR	LAC	15.97	17.51	+1.53	7.32
27	Julio Jones	WR	PHI	17.53	16.23	-1.30	7.30
28	Trey Quinn	WR	DET	7.13	0.00	-7.13	7.13
29	DeSean Jackson	WR	BAL	16.07	8.96	-7.11	7.11
30	John Brown	WR	BUF	15.31	10.76	-4.56	7.01
31	Deebo Samuel Sr.	WR	WAS	10.01	11.53	+1.52	7.00
32	DeAndre Hopkins	WR	BAL	18.94	17.99	-0.95	7.00
33	Mike Evans	WR	SF	17.29	15.54	-1.75	6.95
34	Michael Thomas	WR	NO	17.71	11.99	-5.72	6.90
35	Christian Kirk	WR	SF	12.72	10.46	-2.26	6.85
36	Rashard Higgins	WR	CAR	4.31	10.08	+5.76	6.76
37	DJ Moore	WR	BUF	18.35	14.10	-4.25	6.66
38	Cole Beasley	WR	NYG	8.55	13.83	+5.28	6.65
39	Tyler Boyd	WR	TEN	13.39	12.84	-0.54	6.63
40	Mike Williams	WR	LAC	8.64	10.98	+2.33	6.54
41	Allen Robinson	WR	DET	16.99	16.43	-0.56	6.50
42	Russell Gage	WR	SF	6.97	11.32	+4.35	6.46
43	Nelson Agholor	WR	BAL	9.45	11.47	+2.02	6.36
44	Richie James	WR	KC	3.00	6.84	+3.84	6.34
45	Terry McLaurin	WR	WAS	12.35	14.92	+2.57	6.29
46	Chris Godwin Jr.	WR	TB	14.56	15.92	+1.36	6.26
47	Courtland Sutton	WR	DEN	15.85	9.60	-6.25	6.25
48	Jakobi Meyers	WR	JAX	7.30	11.88	+4.58	6.23
49	Alex Erickson	WR	HOU	6.70	1.54	-5.16	6.16
50	Parris Campbell	WR	DAL	9.38	7.35	-2.03	6.16
51	Robert Woods	WR	HOU	15.24	15.32	+0.08	6.13
52	Tim Patrick	WR	JAX	5.98	10.75	+4.76	6.02
53	Auden Tate	WR	ARI	8.12	3.63	-4.49	6.00
54	Donte Moncrief	WR	NE	6.54	0.58	-5.96	5.96
55	Amari Cooper	WR	BUF	13.61	14.80	+1.19	5.95
56	Robbie Chosen	WR	WAS	10.04	14.53	+4.50	5.95
57	Sterling Shepard	WR	TB	13.44	13.54	+0.10	5.93
58	Keelan Cole	WR	LV	8.65	9.71	+1.07	5.86
59	Adam Humphries	WR	WAS	7.13	8.26	+1.13	5.84
60	Preston Williams	WR	CAR	11.72	9.35	-2.37	5.84
61	Curtis Samuel	WR	BUF	10.61	14.14	+3.53	5.83
62	Cedrick Wilson Jr.	WR	MIA	5.46	3.97	-1.49	5.81
63	Emmanuel Sanders	WR	BUF	9.73	11.86	+2.13	5.80
64	Pharoh Cooper	WR	ARI	6.46	0.88	-5.58	5.79
65	Scott Miller	WR	PIT	5.28	7.32	+2.05	5.77
66	Isaiah McKenzie	WR	MIA	9.00	6.64	-2.36	5.76
67	Dante Pettis	WR	NO	7.06	2.93	-4.13	5.74
68	Darius Slayton	WR	NYG	9.54	8.81	-0.72	5.72
69	Jarvis Landry	WR	NO	14.06	12.53	-1.53	5.64
70	Cam Sims	WR	CAR	1.46	6.63	+5.17	5.57
71	Travis Fulgham	WR	GB	5.12	7.70	+2.58	5.57
72	Breshad Perriman	WR	TB	7.28	8.72	+1.44	5.50
73	DeVante Parker	WR	NE	11.62	11.88	+0.26	5.34
74	Willie Snead	WR	SF	6.72	7.25	+0.53	5.31
75	Keke Coutee	WR	IND	8.20	11.13	+2.92	5.29
76	Greg Ward	WR	PHI	9.10	8.32	-0.78	5.28
77	Bisi Johnson	WR	MIN	6.65	3.88	-2.77	5.27
78	T.Y. Hilton	WR	DAL	10.27	10.95	+0.68	5.27
79	Marquise Brown	WR	PHI	9.94	11.44	+1.50	5.25
80	Allen Lazard	WR	NYJ	7.86	9.78	+1.92	5.24
81	Olamide Zaccheaus	WR	ATL	3.57	5.34	+1.77	5.22
82	Cooper Kupp	WR	SEA	13.37	14.05	+0.68	5.17
83	DaeSean Hamilton	WR	MIA	6.45	5.19	-1.26	5.04
84	David Moore	WR	CAR	5.39	7.42	+2.04	5.01
85	Rico Gafford	WR	DEN	4.95	0.00	-4.95	4.95
86	Marcus Johnson	WR	NYG	7.29	4.39	-2.90	4.94
87	Braxton Berrios	WR	HOU	2.75	6.08	+3.33	4.94
88	Antonio Callaway	WR	DAL	5.90	1.00	-4.90	4.90
89	Ted Ginn	WR	CHI	6.64	1.75	-4.89	4.89
90	Mecole Hardman	WR	BUF	9.90	8.13	-1.77	4.86
91	Kenny Golladay	WR	NYG	17.05	13.16	-3.89	4.85
92	James Washington	WR	NYG	7.88	6.20	-1.68	4.80
93	Tre'Quan Smith	WR	DET	6.41	7.93	+1.52	4.74
94	Chad Beebe	WR	MIN	5.83	4.34	-1.49	4.65
95	Mohamed Sanu	WR	SF	9.35	6.29	-3.06	4.63
96	Golden Tate	WR	TEN	11.82	7.21	-4.61	4.61
97	Anthony Miller	WR	BAL	8.48	6.79	-1.68	4.57
98	Kenny Stills	WR	NO	7.61	4.49	-3.12	4.53
99	Malik Turner	WR	SF	4.52	0.00	-4.52	4.52
100	Austin Carr	WR	NO	6.19	2.34	-3.85	4.50
101	Javon Wims	WR	ARI	5.98	1.70	-4.28	4.46
102	Seth Roberts	WR	GB	6.80	2.37	-4.43	4.43
103	Hunter Renfrow	WR	CAR	10.48	8.22	-2.25	4.38
104	Damiere Byrd	WR	HOU	6.83	7.71	+0.88	4.36
105	Justin Watson	WR	HOU	5.84	2.34	-3.50	4.33
106	Zach Pascal	WR	ARI	8.38	8.56	+0.18	4.26
107	Bennie Fowler	WR	NO	5.75	1.55	-4.20	4.20
108	Trent Sherfield	WR	BUF	4.32	1.11	-3.21	4.17
109	Deonte Harty	WR	BAL	1.37	5.52	+4.15	4.15
110	Chris Hogan	WR	NO	3.61	5.16	+1.55	4.04
111	Demarcus Robinson	WR	SF	7.74	7.17	-0.57	4.04
112	Dontrelle Inman	WR	WAS	4.68	6.61	+1.93	4.03
113	Randall Cobb	WR	NYJ	8.43	10.33	+1.91	3.91
114	Sammy Watkins	WR	BAL	8.88	8.74	-0.14	3.88
115	Marvin Hall	WR	ATL	4.02	5.48	+1.47	3.83
116	Ty Montgomery	WR	NE	4.21	3.95	-0.25	3.73
117	Christian Blake	WR	ATL	5.94	2.71	-3.23	3.69
118	Stanley Morgan	WR	TEN	3.68	0.00	-3.68	3.68
119	Josh Reynolds	WR	NYJ	6.79	7.89	+1.11	3.68
120	Larry Fitzgerald	WR	ARI	9.26	7.76	-1.50	3.67
121	Andy Isabella	WR	PIT	4.58	4.98	+0.40	3.65
122	Kendrick Bourne	WR	ARI	7.25	8.65	+1.39	3.61
123	Byron Pringle	WR	WAS	7.17	5.86	-1.31	3.60
124	Jake Kumerow	WR	BUF	5.62	9.20	+3.58	3.58
125	Kalif Raymond	WR	CHI	3.39	1.83	-1.56	3.58
126	Taywan Taylor	WR	CLE	3.52	0.00	-3.52	3.52
127	Miles Boykin	WR	CHI	5.38	4.97	-0.41	3.51
128	J.J. Arcega-Whiteside	WR	SEA	6.40	2.90	-3.50	3.50
129	Damion Ratley	WR	MIN	5.16	2.06	-3.10	3.41
130	Steven Sims	WR	ARI	6.12	5.11	-1.01	3.39
131	Danny Amendola	WR	HOU	6.92	7.60	+0.68	3.38
132	Zay Jones	WR	ARI	5.92	3.32	-2.60	3.32
133	Chris Conley	WR	SF	8.68	6.94	-1.74	3.31
134	KhaDarel Hodge	WR	ATL	2.56	4.14	+1.58	3.17
135	Mike Thomas	WR	BAL	2.50	2.52	+0.02	3.03
136	Mack Hollins	WR	NE	3.04	3.42	+0.38	2.97
137	Isaiah Ford	WR	MIA	6.26	6.18	-0.08	2.97
138	Laquon Treadwell	WR	IND	7.40	5.72	-1.68	2.95
139	Tavon Austin	WR	BUF	4.68	1.75	-2.93	2.93
140	KeeSean Johnson	WR	BUF	6.56	4.04	-2.53	2.86
141	Gunner Olszewski	WR	NYG	1.86	1.96	+0.10	2.61
142	Andre Roberts	WR	CAR	3.08	0.47	-2.60	2.60
143	Chris Moore	WR	WAS	2.52	0.00	-2.52	2.52
144	Jakeem Grant	WR	CLE	6.14	6.24	+0.09	2.52
145	Steven Mitchell	WR	HOU	3.43	2.75	-0.68	2.34
146	DeAndre Carter	WR	CLE	2.18	0.14	-2.04	2.04
147	Brandon Zylstra	WR	DET	3.10	1.32	-1.78	2.03
148	Ray-Ray McCloud	WR	NYG	1.20	2.12	+0.92	1.98
149	Robert Foster	WR	NYG	3.72	1.90	-1.82	1.82
150	Jamal Agnew	WR	ATL	1.29	2.23	+0.94	1.72
151	C.J. Board	WR	TEN	2.92	1.95	-0.98	1.72
152	Diontae Spencer	WR	NYJ	1.90	1.23	-0.68	1.66
153	Ashton Dulin	WR	IND	1.91	0.94	-0.97	1.57
154	Darrius Shepherd	WR	DEN	2.12	1.20	-0.92	1.57
155	Dwayne Harris	WR	CHI	1.52	0.00	-1.52	1.52
156	Nsimba Webster	WR	CHI	1.33	0.00	-1.33	1.33
157	Riley Ridley	WR	CHI	5.10	3.95	-1.15	1.15
158	JoJo Natson	WR	CLE	1.24	0.10	-1.14	1.14
159	Matthew Slater	WR	NE	1.07	0.00	-1.07	1.07
160	Gehrig Dieter	WR	KC	1.40	2.00	+0.60	0.60
161	Cody Hollister	WR	TEN	2.50	2.20	-0.30	0.30