Predicted vs. actual

A weekly backtest of the model. Per-position MAE, calibration by predicted-points decile, residual distribution, and rank fidelity.

Position

All QB RB WR TE

Format

PPR Standard

Season

2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020

QB MAE

6.51

491 weeks · +0.24 bias

RB MAE

5.95

1,138 weeks · +0.46 bias

WR MAE

5.35

1,954 weeks · +0.02 bias

TE MAE

4.08

910 weeks · +0.24 bias

Diagnostics — WR · 1,954 weeks

MAE

5.35

lower is better

RMSE

6.94

penalizes large misses

Calibration · predicted vs. actual by decile

Each point is a decile of predicted points. A well-calibrated model sits on the 45° line — points above mean the model under-predicts; below, it over-predicts.

Residual distribution · actual − predicted

How miss-magnitudes spread out. Mass left of zero = over-predicted weeks; mass right = under-predicted. Centered, narrow = good.

< −15

4 (0%)

−15 to −10

59 (3%)

−10 to −5

366 (19%)

−5 to −2

444 (23%)

−2 to 0

300 (15%)

0 to 2

179 (9%)

2 to 5

207

Per-decile error decomposition

Rows are predicted-points deciles (D1 = bottom 10% of predictions, D10 = top 10%). Bias is the model's systematic over- or under-shoot within that bucket.

Decile	n	Pred (μ)	Actual (μ)	Bias	MAE	RMSE
D1	196	1.65	2.48	-0.83	2.70	4.51
D2	196	3.24	3.96	-0.72	3.91	5.24
D3	196	4.62	5.08	-0.46	4.18	5.47
D4	196	5.99	5.87	+0.12	4.62	5.78
D5	195	7.53	6.19	+1.34	4.99	5.95
D6	195	8.79	8.62	+0.16	6.09	7.45
D7	195	9.92	10.67	-0.75	6.43	7.92
D8	195	11.32	12.39	-1.07	6.47	8.19
D9	195	13.24	12.43	+0.80	7.48	9.09
D10	195	15.82	14.24	+1.58	6.65	8.18

No.	Player	Pos	Team	Pred ppg	Actual ppg	Δ ppg	MAE↓
1	Cooper Kupp	WR	SEA	12.49	25.85	+13.36	13.56
2	Cyril Grayson	WR	CLE	3.53	14.87	+11.33	11.33
3	Denzel Mims	WR	PIT	13.14	2.13	-11.01	11.01
4	Deebo Samuel Sr.	WR	WAS	10.37	21.18	+10.82	10.82
5	Antonio Brown	WR	TB	10.19	17.30	+7.11	10.60
6	Tyreek Hill	WR	MIA	14.02	17.44	+3.42	10.43
7	Kenny Golladay	WR	NYG	16.19	6.48	-9.71	9.94
8	Chris Hogan	WR	NO	12.37	2.82	-9.55	9.55
9	Mike Williams	WR	LAC	10.78	15.41	+4.63	8.97
10	Keke Coutee	WR	IND	10.38	1.50	-8.88	8.88
11	Mike Evans	WR	SF	11.04	16.41	+5.37	8.84
12	Danny Amendola	WR	HOU	9.29	8.70	-0.59	8.75
13	Parris Campbell	WR	DAL	14.09	5.37	-8.72	8.72
14	John Brown	WR	BUF	8.37	0.00	-8.37	8.37
15	Willie Snead	WR	SF	9.47	1.11	-8.35	8.35
16	A.J. Brown	WR	PHI	12.65	13.92	+1.26	8.31
17	Davante Adams	WR	LA	18.81	21.52	+2.71	8.31
18	Will Fuller	WR	MIA	12.60	4.30	-8.30	8.30
19	Andy Isabella	WR	PIT	8.97	0.77	-8.20	8.20
20	K.J. Osborn	WR	TEN	1.31	9.32	+8.01	8.15
21	Tyler Lockett	WR	LV	11.50	15.09	+3.59	8.04
22	Jakeem Grant	WR	CLE	8.44	1.81	-6.63	7.89
23	CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	9.28	14.55	+5.27	7.78
24	John Ross	WR	PHI	11.46	4.56	-6.91	7.74
25	Adam Thielen	WR	PIT	14.94	15.37	+0.43	7.74
26	Chris Godwin Jr.	WR	TB	11.06	17.31	+6.26	7.69
27	Allen Robinson	WR	DET	14.81	7.25	-7.56	7.56
28	Terry McLaurin	WR	WAS	14.29	12.56	-1.73	7.43
29	Curtis Samuel	WR	BUF	9.65	2.25	-7.40	7.40
30	Amari Cooper	WR	BUF	14.41	13.50	-0.91	7.29
31	Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	15.24	15.65	+0.41	7.29
32	Sterling Shepard	WR	TB	10.78	11.10	+0.32	7.28
33	Damiere Byrd	WR	HOU	12.38	5.13	-7.25	7.25
34	Michael Pittman	WR	PIT	9.01	14.04	+5.02	7.10
35	Van Jefferson	WR	WAS	3.23	9.89	+6.66	7.01
36	Russell Gage	WR	SF	9.60	12.54	+2.94	6.94
37	Odell Beckham Jr.	WR	MIA	12.06	9.10	-2.96	6.77
38	Dante Pettis	WR	NO	5.20	8.45	+3.25	6.73
39	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	WR	DAL	8.35	7.91	-0.44	6.70
40	Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	15.73	19.44	+3.71	6.64
41	Darnell Mooney	WR	NYG	8.69	12.92	+4.23	6.64
42	Corey Davis	WR	NYJ	14.86	12.71	-2.15	6.63
43	Robbie Chosen	WR	WAS	13.15	8.15	-5.00	6.57
44	Allen Lazard	WR	NYJ	9.21	10.18	+0.97	6.55
45	David Moore	WR	CAR	6.54	0.00	-6.54	6.54
46	Kalif Raymond	WR	CHI	3.33	8.47	+5.14	6.52
47	Hunter Renfrow	WR	CAR	9.91	15.24	+5.33	6.48
48	Randall Cobb	WR	NYJ	8.69	9.05	+0.36	6.47
49	Brandon Aiyuk	WR	SF	14.63	10.02	-4.61	6.44
50	JuJu Smith-Schuster	WR	KC	11.58	6.96	-4.62	6.42
51	Tyron Johnson	WR	DAL	6.91	0.51	-6.39	6.39
52	Brandin Cooks	WR	BUF	13.20	14.49	+1.29	6.32
53	Christian Kirk	WR	SF	8.03	12.21	+4.19	6.25
54	Darius Slayton	WR	NYG	10.54	5.28	-5.26	6.13
55	Scott Miller	WR	PIT	7.78	3.18	-4.60	6.04
56	DK Metcalf	WR	PIT	14.79	14.37	-0.42	6.01
57	Jalen Guyton	WR	LV	10.17	6.08	-4.09	5.97
58	Preston Williams	WR	CAR	7.66	2.30	-5.36	5.96
59	DeSean Jackson	WR	BAL	7.69	5.61	-2.08	5.96
60	Cole Beasley	WR	NYG	11.36	9.96	-1.41	5.87
61	DeAndre Hopkins	WR	BAL	16.29	14.72	-1.57	5.85
62	Donovan Peoples-Jones	WR	DET	5.40	8.44	+3.03	5.80
63	Cam Sims	WR	CAR	8.49	4.07	-4.43	5.80
64	Marvin Jones	WR	DET	11.82	10.94	-0.88	5.80
65	Marquise Brown	WR	PHI	12.17	14.27	+2.10	5.74
66	Julio Jones	WR	PHI	10.40	7.94	-2.45	5.72
67	Cedrick Wilson Jr.	WR	MIA	5.95	10.56	+4.61	5.70
68	Diontae Johnson	WR	HOU	11.68	17.15	+5.47	5.69
69	Tyler Boyd	WR	TEN	9.48	11.49	+2.01	5.67
70	Quintez Cephus	WR	HOU	6.11	9.88	+3.77	5.65
71	Marcus Johnson	WR	NYG	6.49	3.54	-2.95	5.63
72	Kendrick Bourne	WR	ARI	7.41	10.38	+2.97	5.61
73	Anthony Miller	WR	BAL	6.81	4.83	-1.98	5.57
74	Laquon Treadwell	WR	IND	3.79	7.49	+3.70	5.54
75	KhaDarel Hodge	WR	ATL	7.01	2.62	-4.39	5.53
76	Jamison Crowder	WR	WAS	12.15	9.14	-3.01	5.51
77	Jalen Reagor	WR	LAC	8.78	4.59	-4.19	5.43
78	Emmanuel Sanders	WR	BUF	9.24	9.05	-0.20	5.42
79	Marquez Callaway	WR	TB	5.21	8.93	+3.72	5.40
80	John Hightower	WR	LAC	5.36	0.00	-5.36	5.36
81	Braxton Berrios	WR	HOU	6.46	7.57	+1.11	5.30
82	DJ Chark	WR	LAC	13.47	11.47	-2.00	5.30
83	Chris Moore	WR	WAS	1.29	5.79	+4.50	5.26
84	Deonte Harty	WR	BAL	5.55	8.85	+3.31	5.24
85	Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	WR	IND	2.61	7.17	+4.56	5.19
86	Josh Reynolds	WR	NYJ	7.53	8.06	+0.53	5.13
87	Gabe Davis	WR	BUF	7.51	8.39	+0.88	5.12
88	Greg Ward	WR	PHI	7.32	3.46	-3.86	5.11
89	Zach Pascal	WR	ARI	8.22	5.91	-2.31	5.08
90	Christian Blake	WR	ATL	5.76	0.72	-5.04	5.04
91	Jamal Agnew	WR	ATL	4.25	8.36	+4.11	5.03
92	Stefon Diggs	WR	NE	17.14	16.79	-0.34	4.98
93	Rashard Higgins	WR	CAR	8.58	4.79	-3.79	4.95
94	T.Y. Hilton	WR	DAL	10.22	7.41	-2.81	4.92
95	Collin Johnson	WR	CHI	6.83	2.83	-4.00	4.91
96	Chase Claypool	WR	MIA	8.60	11.11	+2.51	4.82
97	Tim Patrick	WR	JAX	10.36	9.78	-0.58	4.82
98	Marvin Hall	WR	ATL	6.81	2.00	-4.81	4.81
99	Daurice Fountain	WR	DET	4.81	0.00	-4.81	4.81
100	Byron Pringle	WR	WAS	4.85	8.05	+3.20	4.75
101	DJ Moore	WR	BUF	14.92	13.97	-0.95	4.73
102	Henry Ruggs III	WR	LV	8.53	12.07	+3.54	4.72
103	Jarvis Landry	WR	NO	11.44	11.08	-0.36	4.71
104	Mack Hollins	WR	NE	5.08	4.02	-1.06	4.67
105	Bryan Edwards	WR	KC	4.73	6.82	+2.09	4.66
106	Isaiah McKenzie	WR	MIA	4.17	3.63	-0.53	4.65
107	Nelson Agholor	WR	BAL	9.03	7.26	-1.77	4.55
108	James Proche	WR	TEN	1.33	5.17	+3.84	4.52
109	Demarcus Robinson	WR	SF	6.86	4.96	-1.90	4.46
110	Robert Woods	WR	HOU	13.03	15.24	+2.21	4.45
111	James Washington	WR	NYG	6.42	4.39	-2.03	4.41
112	KJ Hamler	WR	BUF	8.52	4.13	-4.39	4.39
113	A.J. Green	WR	ARI	10.15	10.36	+0.21	4.36
114	Tre'Quan Smith	WR	DET	9.44	8.77	-0.67	4.35
115	Freddie Swain	WR	MIA	4.16	5.09	+0.93	4.33
116	Chris Conley	WR	SF	6.10	4.61	-1.49	4.29
117	Sammy Watkins	WR	BAL	8.92	6.86	-2.06	4.26
118	Isaiah Ford	WR	MIA	5.99	4.01	-1.98	4.23
119	Jakobi Meyers	WR	JAX	13.45	11.64	-1.81	4.19
120	Keelan Cole	WR	LV	7.78	5.95	-1.83	4.14
121	Zay Jones	WR	ARI	4.54	7.06	+2.52	4.14
122	Laviska Shenault Jr.	WR	LAC	10.98	7.94	-3.04	4.07
123	Jeff Smith	WR	ARI	5.97	2.13	-3.84	4.07
124	Breshad Perriman	WR	TB	8.37	6.68	-1.69	4.07
125	Adam Humphries	WR	WAS	7.84	4.47	-3.37	4.06
126	Keenan Allen	WR	LAC	16.22	16.11	-0.11	3.93
127	Mecole Hardman	WR	BUF	7.29	8.29	+1.00	3.92
128	DeVante Parker	WR	NE	11.50	11.50	+0.00	3.92
129	Kenny Stills	WR	NO	4.80	2.70	-2.10	3.90
130	Alex Erickson	WR	HOU	4.39	0.53	-3.86	3.86
131	DeAndre Carter	WR	CLE	1.52	4.47	+2.95	3.82
132	Miles Boykin	WR	CHI	5.40	1.60	-3.80	3.80
133	Tavon Austin	WR	BUF	3.97	5.15	+1.18	3.66
134	River Cracraft	WR	WAS	3.64	0.00	-3.64	3.64
135	Jerry Jeudy	WR	CLE	10.50	8.50	-2.00	3.64
136	Trent Taylor	WR	SF	3.91	1.52	-2.39	3.59
137	Lil'Jordan Humphrey	WR	DEN	5.87	6.24	+0.37	3.48
138	Tyler Johnson	WR	DAL	5.64	4.50	-1.14	3.37
139	Olamide Zaccheaus	WR	ATL	5.47	5.99	+0.51	3.33
140	Brandon Zylstra	WR	DET	3.37	4.08	+0.72	3.32
141	Ty Montgomery	WR	NE	3.36	2.14	-1.23	3.29
142	Brandon Powell	WR	MIN	3.50	1.00	-2.50	3.28
143	Equanimeous St. Brown	WR	NO	4.44	1.68	-2.76	3.27
144	Ray-Ray McCloud	WR	NYG	2.93	4.26	+1.33	3.22
145	Mohamed Sanu	WR	SF	6.90	4.46	-2.44	3.15
146	Quez Watkins	WR	PHI	5.72	6.82	+1.10	3.12
147	K.J. Hill	WR	LAC	2.97	1.00	-1.97	3.04
148	Noah Brown	WR	WAS	3.84	3.82	-0.01	2.97
149	J.J. Arcega-Whiteside	WR	SEA	3.70	0.80	-2.90	2.90
150	Jaydon Mickens	WR	IND	3.15	0.27	-2.88	2.88
151	Antonio Gandy-Golden	WR	WAS	2.78	0.00	-2.78	2.78
152	Calvin Ridley	WR	TEN	15.02	14.22	-0.80	2.77
153	Michael Gallup	WR	DAL	10.63	10.17	-0.46	2.70
154	Cameron Batson	WR	ATL	3.79	2.75	-1.04	2.68
155	Auden Tate	WR	ARI	4.75	3.23	-1.53	2.63
156	Devin Duvernay	WR	ARI	5.00	4.83	-0.17	2.58
157	Malik Taylor	WR	NYJ	2.66	0.49	-2.18	2.41
158	Mike Thomas	WR	BAL	3.84	1.46	-2.38	2.38
159	Tajae Sharpe	WR	SF	2.40	3.40	+1.00	2.32
160	Gunner Olszewski	WR	NYG	2.56	0.38	-2.19	2.26
161	Dede Westbrook	WR	GB	3.12	1.12	-2.00	2.25
162	Ashton Dulin	WR	IND	2.02	2.84	+0.82	2.19
163	C.J. Board	WR	TEN	3.10	1.62	-1.48	1.99
164	Tyrie Cleveland	WR	IND	1.90	0.00	-1.90	1.90
165	Trent Sherfield	WR	BUF	1.58	2.02	+0.44	1.89
166	Vyncint Smith	WR	IND	1.82	0.00	-1.82	1.82
167	Pharoh Cooper	WR	ARI	2.31	0.50	-1.81	1.81
168	Andre Roberts	WR	CAR	1.62	0.78	-0.84	1.75
169	JoJo Natson	WR	CLE	1.61	0.00	-1.61	1.61
170	Matthew Slater	WR	NE	1.59	0.00	-1.59	1.59
171	Diontae Spencer	WR	NYJ	1.54	0.05	-1.49	1.49
172	Marcus Kemp	WR	KC	1.58	0.37	-1.22	1.44
173	Dan Chisena	WR	CAR	1.39	0.00	-1.39	1.39
174	Nsimba Webster	WR	CHI	1.30	0.00	-1.30	1.30
175	Penny Hart	WR	ATL	1.48	1.17	-0.31	1.16
176	Stanley Morgan	WR	TEN	1.25	0.31	-0.94	1.11
177	Tommylee Lewis	WR	MIA	1.88	0.85	-1.03	1.03