Predicted vs. actual

A weekly backtest of the model. Per-position MAE, calibration by predicted-points decile, residual distribution, and rank fidelity.

Position

All QB RB WR TE

Format

PPR Standard

Season

2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020

QB MAE

6.25

531 weeks · -0.12 bias

RB MAE

5.53

1,143 weeks · +1.10 bias

WR MAE

5.15

1,901 weeks · +0.26 bias

TE MAE

3.95

947 weeks · +0.69 bias

Diagnostics — WR · 1,901 weeks

MAE

5.15

lower is better

RMSE

6.72

penalizes large misses

Calibration · predicted vs. actual by decile

Each point is a decile of predicted points. A well-calibrated model sits on the 45° line — points above mean the model under-predicts; below, it over-predicts.

Residual distribution · actual − predicted

How miss-magnitudes spread out. Mass left of zero = over-predicted weeks; mass right = under-predicted. Centered, narrow = good.

< −15

2 (0%)

−15 to −10

64 (3%)

−10 to −5

373 (20%)

−5 to −2

430 (23%)

−2 to 0

292 (15%)

0 to 2

181 (10%)

2 to 5

205

Per-decile error decomposition

Rows are predicted-points deciles (D1 = bottom 10% of predictions, D10 = top 10%). Bias is the model's systematic over- or under-shoot within that bucket.

Decile	n	Pred (μ)	Actual (μ)	Bias	MAE	RMSE
D1	191	1.73	2.50	-0.77	2.70	4.29
D2	190	3.51	3.96	-0.45	3.47	4.72
D3	190	5.09	5.14	-0.04	4.18	5.38
D4	190	5.90	5.01	+0.88	4.42	5.60
D5	190	6.93	6.77	+0.16	5.21	6.40
D6	190	8.50	7.27	+1.23	5.62	6.79
D7	190	10.03	8.91	+1.12	5.95	7.25
D8	190	11.85	11.12	+0.73	6.32	8.06
D9	190	13.38	13.55	-0.17	6.36	8.14
D10	190	15.81	15.91	-0.10	7.28	8.94

No.	Player	Pos	Team	Pred ppg	Actual ppg	Δ ppg	MAE↓
1	Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	17.40	21.69	+4.29	11.02
2	Davante Adams	WR	LA	20.33	20.34	+0.01	10.62
3	Stefon Diggs	WR	NE	15.36	19.79	+4.43	8.53
4	Quintez Cephus	WR	HOU	9.66	1.17	-8.49	8.49
5	DeVante Parker	WR	NE	13.73	9.00	-4.73	8.24
6	Cooper Kupp	WR	SEA	18.06	22.38	+4.32	7.98
7	Cole Beasley	WR	NYG	10.19	2.38	-7.82	7.82
8	DJ Moore	WR	BUF	14.97	11.71	-3.26	7.78
9	Tyreek Hill	WR	MIA	14.03	19.36	+5.32	7.65
10	DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	11.17	15.09	+3.93	7.61
11	Curtis Samuel	WR	BUF	3.90	10.37	+6.47	7.59
12	CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	12.82	17.74	+4.92	7.58
13	Jaylen Waddle	WR	DEN	13.58	15.25	+1.66	7.57
14	A.J. Brown	WR	PHI	12.72	17.62	+4.90	7.53
15	Zay Jones	WR	ARI	8.60	12.59	+3.99	7.50
16	Christian Kirk	WR	SF	9.49	14.09	+4.61	7.49
17	Amari Cooper	WR	BUF	13.58	14.47	+0.89	7.47
18	Rondale Moore	WR	MIN	7.22	10.99	+3.76	7.39
19	Mike Evans	WR	SF	12.76	15.03	+2.26	7.27
20	Dante Pettis	WR	NO	9.83	3.94	-5.89	7.26
21	Jerry Jeudy	WR	CLE	9.94	13.61	+3.67	7.21
22	Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	15.75	20.20	+4.45	7.20
23	Lil'Jordan Humphrey	WR	DEN	8.16	1.00	-7.16	7.17
24	Mike Williams	WR	LAC	13.47	13.58	+0.11	7.14
25	Kenny Golladay	WR	NYG	9.96	3.35	-6.61	7.01
26	Robbie Chosen	WR	WAS	9.37	4.35	-5.02	6.99
27	Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	12.88	16.73	+3.84	6.91
28	Mecole Hardman	WR	BUF	9.01	11.72	+2.72	6.90
29	Russell Gage	WR	SF	12.03	9.53	-2.50	6.89
30	Josh Reynolds	WR	NYJ	12.31	8.66	-3.65	6.88
31	Deonte Harty	WR	BAL	7.70	0.82	-6.88	6.88
32	Robert Woods	WR	HOU	13.74	7.01	-6.74	6.83
33	Nelson Agholor	WR	BAL	8.41	5.37	-3.04	6.74
34	Jarvis Landry	WR	NO	11.53	6.69	-4.85	6.67
35	Greg Dortch	WR	DET	1.69	7.19	+5.50	6.64
36	Laviska Shenault Jr.	WR	LAC	10.43	5.67	-4.76	6.63
37	Jamison Crowder	WR	WAS	9.60	3.00	-6.60	6.60
38	Hunter Renfrow	WR	CAR	12.82	7.90	-4.92	6.58
39	DeAndre Hopkins	WR	BAL	12.71	16.86	+4.14	6.56
40	Kadarius Toney	WR	CLE	10.76	7.01	-3.75	6.49
41	Josh Palmer	WR	BUF	5.81	10.58	+4.77	6.39
42	Bryan Edwards	WR	KC	7.51	1.13	-6.38	6.38
43	Marquise Brown	WR	PHI	14.21	13.00	-1.21	6.35
44	A.J. Green	WR	ARI	9.39	4.74	-4.65	6.31
45	JuJu Smith-Schuster	WR	KC	10.78	11.10	+0.32	6.17
46	Corey Davis	WR	NYJ	10.43	7.51	-2.92	6.16
47	K.J. Osborn	WR	TEN	7.18	9.15	+1.98	6.15
48	Keenan Allen	WR	LAC	14.10	16.40	+2.30	6.08
49	Chase Claypool	WR	MIA	11.36	7.24	-4.13	6.08
50	Tyler Lockett	WR	LV	11.84	14.96	+3.11	6.04
51	Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	14.36	15.78	+1.42	5.93
52	Mack Hollins	WR	NE	5.19	8.94	+3.75	5.82
53	Ty Montgomery	WR	NE	4.49	10.30	+5.81	5.81
54	Diontae Johnson	WR	HOU	15.87	10.63	-5.24	5.77
55	Cedrick Wilson Jr.	WR	MIA	7.60	1.84	-5.76	5.76
56	Gabe Davis	WR	BUF	7.31	11.44	+4.13	5.65
57	Darnell Mooney	WR	NYG	14.25	9.23	-5.02	5.64
58	Adam Thielen	WR	PIT	14.02	10.59	-3.44	5.60
59	John Brown	WR	BUF	1.89	5.60	+3.71	5.60
60	James Washington	WR	NYG	5.58	0.00	-5.58	5.58
61	Dez Fitzpatrick	WR	LAC	5.53	0.00	-5.53	5.53
62	DK Metcalf	WR	PIT	13.70	13.34	-0.36	5.51
63	Marvin Jones	WR	DET	12.32	7.31	-5.02	5.50
64	Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	WR	IND	6.41	5.17	-1.24	5.48
65	Noah Brown	WR	WAS	5.46	7.16	+1.70	5.46
66	Zach Pascal	WR	ARI	6.92	2.46	-4.45	5.39
67	Kendrick Bourne	WR	ARI	8.63	5.52	-3.11	5.35
68	Tre'Quan Smith	WR	DET	7.15	5.28	-1.87	5.35
69	Darius Slayton	WR	NYG	7.09	9.88	+2.79	5.31
70	Devin Duvernay	WR	ARI	5.16	8.29	+3.13	5.31
71	Courtland Sutton	WR	DEN	8.87	10.63	+1.75	5.31
72	Elijah Moore	WR	PHI	11.15	6.29	-4.86	5.30
73	Rashod Bateman	WR	BAL	8.40	8.92	+0.52	5.26
74	Jamal Agnew	WR	ATL	6.64	4.69	-1.96	5.24
75	Dyami Brown	WR	WAS	4.37	3.64	-0.72	5.18
76	DJ Chark	WR	LAC	8.74	9.82	+1.08	5.17
77	Allen Lazard	WR	NYJ	7.78	11.65	+3.88	5.16
78	Damiere Byrd	WR	HOU	5.76	4.32	-1.45	5.12
79	Brandon Zylstra	WR	DET	5.10	0.00	-5.10	5.10
80	Parris Campbell	WR	DAL	6.36	8.77	+2.41	5.06
81	Byron Pringle	WR	WAS	7.32	3.55	-3.77	5.06
82	Trenton Irwin	WR	NYJ	2.33	7.02	+4.69	5.02
83	Tyler Boyd	WR	TEN	10.21	10.45	+0.23	5.00
84	Jakobi Meyers	WR	JAX	13.27	13.02	-0.24	5.00
85	Michael Pittman	WR	PIT	13.77	13.53	-0.24	4.97
86	Brandon Aiyuk	WR	SF	9.92	13.40	+3.48	4.93
87	Chester Rogers	WR	CLE	4.88	0.00	-4.88	4.88
88	Allen Robinson	WR	DET	9.37	8.49	-0.88	4.86
89	Marcus Johnson	WR	NYG	6.85	2.06	-4.80	4.80
90	Isaiah McKenzie	WR	MIA	6.45	7.99	+1.53	4.79
91	Marquez Callaway	WR	TB	8.55	3.78	-4.77	4.77
92	Terry McLaurin	WR	WAS	12.92	13.47	+0.55	4.68
93	Cam Sims	WR	CAR	5.96	1.30	-4.66	4.66
94	Chris Conley	WR	SF	6.80	2.15	-4.65	4.65
95	Breshad Perriman	WR	TB	5.55	2.91	-2.64	4.61
96	Keelan Cole	WR	LV	6.10	2.74	-3.37	4.60
97	Kalif Raymond	WR	CHI	9.53	6.84	-2.70	4.60
98	Tutu Atwell	WR	MIA	0.97	5.27	+4.29	4.60
99	Cody Hollister	WR	TEN	5.99	1.40	-4.59	4.59
100	Marquise Goodwin	WR	CLE	6.05	5.83	-0.22	4.58
101	Trinity Benson	WR	CLE	4.58	0.00	-4.58	4.58
102	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	WR	DAL	9.94	7.46	-2.47	4.56
103	Quez Watkins	WR	PHI	6.84	4.97	-1.87	4.55
104	Malik Turner	WR	SF	4.54	0.00	-4.54	4.54
105	Chris Godwin Jr.	WR	TB	14.40	14.85	+0.45	4.45
106	Donovan Peoples-Jones	WR	DET	9.59	9.83	+0.24	4.44
107	Nico Collins	WR	HOU	5.46	9.71	+4.25	4.44
108	Keith Kirkwood	WR	BAL	5.69	1.27	-4.42	4.42
109	Laquon Treadwell	WR	IND	7.81	3.40	-4.41	4.41
110	Anthony Schwartz	WR	MIA	4.94	2.69	-2.25	4.30
111	Michael Gallup	WR	DAL	9.70	7.53	-2.17	4.27
112	Brandin Cooks	WR	BUF	12.51	11.20	-1.31	4.27
113	Juwann Winfree	WR	IND	5.15	0.90	-4.25	4.25
114	Shi Smith	WR	TEN	5.37	3.62	-1.75	4.24
115	DeAndre Carter	WR	CLE	6.45	7.08	+0.63	4.23
116	Ray-Ray McCloud	WR	NYG	5.41	3.42	-2.00	4.22
117	Jalen Reagor	WR	LAC	5.49	1.58	-3.91	4.19
118	Ben Skowronek	WR	PIT	3.08	6.02	+2.94	4.08
119	Jalen Guyton	WR	LV	6.33	4.20	-2.13	4.08
120	Chris Moore	WR	WAS	5.35	7.67	+2.32	3.94
121	Deebo Samuel Sr.	WR	WAS	12.73	12.95	+0.22	3.93
122	Demarcus Robinson	WR	SF	5.19	6.09	+0.90	3.88
123	James Proche	WR	TEN	4.80	1.11	-3.69	3.81
124	KhaDarel Hodge	WR	ATL	4.35	3.43	-0.92	3.78
125	Sammy Watkins	WR	BAL	6.93	4.85	-2.08	3.72
126	Randall Cobb	WR	NYJ	6.43	6.28	-0.15	3.70
127	Braxton Berrios	WR	HOU	5.73	3.39	-2.34	3.67
128	Julio Jones	WR	PHI	7.62	7.04	-0.58	3.63
129	River Cracraft	WR	WAS	1.03	3.90	+2.87	3.63
130	Trent Sherfield	WR	BUF	3.54	5.20	+1.66	3.49
131	Mike Strachan	WR	WAS	4.96	1.78	-3.18	3.45
132	Dee Eskridge	WR	MIA	4.27	1.53	-2.74	3.34
133	Phillip Dorsett	WR	LV	4.62	3.45	-1.17	3.33
134	Ashton Dulin	WR	IND	3.30	4.25	+0.95	3.25
135	Josh Gordon	WR	TEN	3.25	0.00	-3.25	3.25
136	Olamide Zaccheaus	WR	ATL	5.81	6.88	+1.07	3.22
137	DeSean Jackson	WR	BAL	5.66	3.47	-2.19	3.18
138	Kendall Hinton	WR	DEN	3.94	5.13	+1.19	3.16
139	Terrace Marshall Jr.	WR	MIA	4.90	6.38	+1.48	3.15
140	Van Jefferson	WR	WAS	8.16	7.89	-0.27	3.06
141	Freddie Swain	WR	MIA	5.55	3.80	-1.75	3.05
142	Equanimeous St. Brown	WR	NO	2.79	4.04	+1.25	2.91
143	Jauan Jennings	WR	SF	4.96	5.16	+0.20	2.86
144	Scott Miller	WR	PIT	3.14	3.52	+0.39	2.78
145	Nsimba Webster	WR	CHI	0.66	3.40	+2.74	2.74
146	KJ Hamler	WR	BUF	5.21	4.30	-0.92	2.73
147	Jeff Smith	WR	ARI	3.44	3.06	-0.38	2.72
148	Denzel Mims	WR	PIT	3.53	3.29	-0.24	2.71
149	Dax Milne	WR	CAR	3.11	1.05	-2.07	2.68
150	Kevin White	WR	NO	2.57	1.57	-1.00	2.64
151	Stanley Morgan	WR	TEN	2.60	0.00	-2.60	2.60
152	Jake Kumerow	WR	BUF	2.66	2.08	-0.58	2.58
153	C.J. Board	WR	TEN	2.89	0.40	-2.49	2.49
154	Sterling Shepard	WR	TB	11.67	11.47	-0.20	2.47
155	Jaelon Darden	WR	SEA	2.62	0.34	-2.27	2.39
156	Brandon Powell	WR	MIN	1.04	2.80	+1.76	2.39
157	Ihmir Smith-Marsette	WR	ARI	2.40	0.10	-2.30	2.30
158	Pharoh Cooper	WR	ARI	2.83	0.82	-2.01	2.22
159	Racey McMath	WR	DAL	2.81	1.60	-1.21	2.19
160	Mike Thomas	WR	BAL	2.85	1.56	-1.29	2.10
161	Tyrie Cleveland	WR	IND	1.83	0.96	-0.87	2.07
162	T.Y. Hilton	WR	DAL	5.30	6.37	+1.07	1.97
163	Amari Rodgers	WR	IND	1.77	1.94	+0.17	1.95
164	Tom Kennedy	WR	DET	3.02	4.42	+1.40	1.83
165	David Sills	WR	TB	3.82	3.09	-0.74	1.61
166	Marcus Kemp	WR	KC	1.47	0.00	-1.47	1.47
167	Penny Hart	WR	ATL	2.65	1.25	-1.40	1.40
168	Gunner Olszewski	WR	NYG	1.65	0.91	-0.74	1.39
169	Alex Erickson	WR	HOU	1.38	0.00	-1.38	1.38
170	Matthew Slater	WR	NE	1.36	0.00	-1.36	1.36
171	Cody White	WR	SEA	2.55	1.20	-1.35	1.35
172	Trent Taylor	WR	SF	1.06	0.86	-0.21	1.34
173	Dezmon Patmon	WR	CAR	3.18	4.40	+1.22	1.22
174	Dan Chisena	WR	CAR	1.05	0.00	-1.05	1.05
175	Andy Isabella	WR	PIT	1.46	1.05	-0.41	1.04
176	Andre Roberts	WR	CAR	0.99	0.00	-0.99	0.99
177	Tylan Wallace	WR	CLE	2.38	1.46	-0.92	0.92
178	Tyron Johnson	WR	DAL	1.35	0.90	-0.45	0.87
179	Jacob Harris	WR	PHI	1.11	0.53	-0.57	0.86
180	Frank Darby	WR	ATL	2.46	2.50	+0.04	0.04