Predicted vs. actual

A weekly backtest of the model. Per-position MAE, calibration by predicted-points decile, residual distribution, and rank fidelity.

Position

All QB RB WR TE

Format

PPR Standard

Season

2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020

QB MAE

7.05

517 weeks · +0.76 bias

RB MAE

5.40

1,181 weeks · +0.78 bias

WR MAE

5.27

1,876 weeks · +0.93 bias

TE MAE

3.83

949 weeks · +0.62 bias

Diagnostics — WR · 1,876 weeks

MAE

5.27

lower is better

RMSE

6.85

penalizes large misses

Calibration · predicted vs. actual by decile

Each point is a decile of predicted points. A well-calibrated model sits on the 45° line — points above mean the model under-predicts; below, it over-predicts.

Residual distribution · actual − predicted

How miss-magnitudes spread out. Mass left of zero = over-predicted weeks; mass right = under-predicted. Centered, narrow = good.

< −15

5 (0%)

−15 to −10

73 (4%)

−10 to −5

413 (22%)

−5 to −2

485 (26%)

−2 to 0

257 (14%)

0 to 2

163 (9%)

2 to 5

179

Per-decile error decomposition

Rows are predicted-points deciles (D1 = bottom 10% of predictions, D10 = top 10%). Bias is the model's systematic over- or under-shoot within that bucket.

Decile	n	Pred (μ)	Actual (μ)	Bias	MAE	RMSE
D1	188	2.02	1.87	+0.15	2.37	3.32
D2	188	3.68	3.35	+0.32	3.40	4.05
D3	188	5.03	4.17	+0.86	4.08	5.20
D4	188	6.87	4.93	+1.93	4.52	5.16
D5	188	7.79	5.61	+2.18	5.18	6.03
D6	188	8.77	7.76	+1.00	5.99	7.74
D7	187	10.08	9.02	+1.06	6.46	7.93
D8	187	12.02	10.94	+1.08	6.16	7.39
D9	187	13.99	13.85	+0.14	6.62	8.61
D10	187	16.57	16.03	+0.54	7.98	10.06

No.	Player	Pos	Team	Pred ppg	Actual ppg	Δ ppg	MAE↓
1	Sterling Shepard	WR	TB	12.94	2.23	-10.71	10.71
2	Nico Collins	WR	HOU	8.78	17.36	+8.58	10.39
3	CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	15.20	23.72	+8.52	10.24
4	Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	17.14	16.42	-0.72	9.90
5	Deebo Samuel Sr.	WR	WAS	9.77	16.25	+6.48	9.55
6	Tyreek Hill	WR	MIA	17.42	23.52	+6.11	9.47
7	Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	14.13	11.47	-2.66	9.39
8	DJ Moore	WR	BUF	13.86	17.07	+3.21	9.33
9	Keenan Allen	WR	LAC	13.39	21.45	+8.06	9.23
10	Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	17.93	20.22	+2.29	9.14
11	Donovan Peoples-Jones	WR	DET	10.81	2.04	-8.78	8.78
12	Gabe Davis	WR	BUF	9.69	10.09	+0.40	8.35
13	Cooper Kupp	WR	SEA	18.82	13.70	-5.12	8.31
14	Allen Lazard	WR	NYJ	12.41	4.48	-7.92	8.23
15	DeAndre Hopkins	WR	BAL	17.64	12.39	-5.26	8.12
16	A.J. Brown	WR	PHI	15.41	17.04	+1.62	8.09
17	Amari Cooper	WR	BUF	14.33	15.13	+0.80	8.08
18	Davante Adams	WR	LA	15.75	15.61	-0.13	8.01
19	Noah Brown	WR	WAS	8.46	10.16	+1.71	8.00
20	Mike Evans	WR	SF	11.54	16.62	+5.08	7.96
21	Devin Duvernay	WR	ARI	8.51	0.56	-7.95	7.95
22	Rondale Moore	WR	MIN	13.69	6.18	-7.51	7.84
23	Adam Thielen	WR	PIT	10.36	14.09	+3.74	7.40
24	Richie James	WR	KC	9.75	2.40	-7.35	7.35
25	Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	15.25	20.68	+5.43	7.32
26	JuJu Smith-Schuster	WR	KC	13.03	5.91	-7.12	7.27
27	Kendrick Bourne	WR	ARI	5.36	12.50	+7.14	7.14
28	Amari Rodgers	WR	IND	7.11	0.00	-7.11	7.11
29	Mike Williams	WR	LAC	13.49	16.73	+3.25	6.83
30	Chris Conley	WR	SF	3.10	9.90	+6.80	6.80
31	Stefon Diggs	WR	NE	15.64	16.11	+0.47	6.65
32	Darnell Mooney	WR	NYG	11.33	5.64	-5.70	6.63
33	Terrace Marshall Jr.	WR	MIA	9.47	4.11	-5.36	6.63
34	Brandin Cooks	WR	BUF	9.62	10.82	+1.21	6.54
35	Jakobi Meyers	WR	JAX	11.37	13.98	+2.61	6.40
36	Demarcus Robinson	WR	SF	7.18	10.27	+3.09	6.40
37	George Pickens	WR	DAL	9.05	12.28	+3.23	6.34
38	Greg Dortch	WR	DET	7.30	4.03	-3.26	6.21
39	Drake London	WR	ATL	12.37	10.90	-1.47	6.13
40	Parris Campbell	WR	DAL	9.17	3.04	-6.13	6.13
41	Tyler Lockett	WR	LV	12.12	11.91	-0.22	6.07
42	Marquise Goodwin	WR	CLE	7.46	1.40	-6.06	6.06
43	Randall Cobb	WR	NYJ	7.76	1.86	-5.90	6.06
44	Isaiah Hodgins	WR	NYG	9.72	4.29	-5.44	6.04
45	DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	15.45	14.22	-1.23	5.95
46	Ben Skowronek	WR	PIT	7.33	1.65	-5.67	5.94
47	Marvin Jones	WR	DET	7.49	1.63	-5.87	5.87
48	Marquise Brown	WR	PHI	13.68	10.36	-3.31	5.83
49	Olamide Zaccheaus	WR	ATL	8.19	3.84	-4.35	5.81
50	Terry McLaurin	WR	WAS	16.00	11.95	-4.05	5.79
51	Brandon Aiyuk	WR	SF	13.80	15.57	+1.78	5.76
52	Mack Hollins	WR	NE	9.35	3.59	-5.76	5.76
53	Allen Robinson	WR	DET	9.75	4.13	-5.61	5.76
54	Mecole Hardman	WR	BUF	8.08	3.96	-4.12	5.74
55	Julio Jones	WR	PHI	7.88	4.55	-3.33	5.73
56	DJ Chark	WR	LAC	8.77	8.20	-0.57	5.70
57	Chris Godwin Jr.	WR	TB	15.92	12.31	-3.62	5.67
58	Christian Watson	WR	GB	7.86	11.26	+3.40	5.66
59	Quez Watkins	WR	PHI	5.12	7.04	+1.92	5.63
60	DeAndre Carter	WR	CLE	6.20	0.59	-5.61	5.61
61	Isaiah McKenzie	WR	MIA	7.27	1.72	-5.56	5.56
62	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	WR	DAL	7.84	3.53	-4.31	5.55
63	Curtis Samuel	WR	BUF	10.88	9.82	-1.06	5.55
64	Rashid Shaheed	WR	SEA	7.87	10.51	+2.64	5.45
65	Zay Jones	WR	ARI	13.35	8.68	-4.67	5.38
66	Brandon Johnson	WR	PIT	5.29	7.34	+2.05	5.34
67	Jahan Dotson	WR	ATL	8.82	7.34	-1.48	5.33
68	Romeo Doubs	WR	NE	8.01	10.26	+2.24	5.26
69	Darius Slayton	WR	NYG	10.00	8.88	-1.12	5.24
70	Jauan Jennings	WR	SF	7.92	3.96	-3.96	5.22
71	Michael Gallup	WR	DAL	7.59	5.49	-2.10	5.18
72	Alex Erickson	WR	HOU	1.06	6.19	+5.13	5.13
73	David Bell	WR	CLE	5.09	5.41	+0.32	5.09
74	Diontae Johnson	WR	HOU	11.46	11.75	+0.28	5.09
75	Khalil Shakir	WR	BUF	4.56	7.07	+2.51	5.08
76	Courtland Sutton	WR	DEN	10.37	11.89	+1.52	5.04
77	DK Metcalf	WR	PIT	12.02	14.09	+2.07	5.02
78	Jamison Crowder	WR	WAS	4.96	2.53	-2.44	4.94
79	Josh Reynolds	WR	NYJ	8.56	8.05	-0.51	4.92
80	Michael Pittman	WR	PIT	14.62	15.76	+1.15	4.86
81	Chase Claypool	WR	MIA	5.48	1.97	-3.51	4.81
82	Jaylen Waddle	WR	DEN	13.58	14.19	+0.60	4.77
83	Chris Olave	WR	NO	12.27	14.46	+2.18	4.70
84	Michael Bandy	WR	DEN	4.63	0.00	-4.63	4.63
85	K.J. Osborn	WR	TEN	8.35	8.00	-0.35	4.54
86	Josh Palmer	WR	BUF	10.08	10.67	+0.59	4.54
87	Rashod Bateman	WR	BAL	9.63	5.10	-4.53	4.53
88	Tutu Atwell	WR	MIA	6.07	8.03	+1.95	4.52
89	Jameson Williams	WR	DET	3.45	6.69	+3.24	4.51
90	Trent Sherfield	WR	BUF	5.78	2.33	-3.45	4.50
91	Garrett Wilson	WR	NYJ	13.41	12.54	-0.87	4.45
92	Phillip Dorsett	WR	LV	4.45	0.00	-4.45	4.45
93	Jerry Jeudy	WR	CLE	12.55	8.86	-3.68	4.34
94	Treylon Burks	WR	WAS	7.70	4.43	-3.27	4.32
95	Wan'Dale Robinson	WR	TEN	7.05	8.88	+1.83	4.30
96	Equanimeous St. Brown	WR	NO	6.51	2.24	-4.27	4.27
97	Van Jefferson	WR	WAS	7.41	3.18	-4.23	4.23
98	Damiere Byrd	WR	HOU	4.22	0.00	-4.22	4.22
99	Christian Kirk	WR	SF	14.16	12.52	-1.63	4.21
100	Nelson Agholor	WR	BAL	7.44	5.76	-1.68	4.18
101	Robbie Chosen	WR	WAS	3.90	3.77	-0.13	4.14
102	Lil'Jordan Humphrey	WR	DEN	4.82	4.72	-0.10	4.09
103	Tyler Boyd	WR	TEN	10.03	8.52	-1.51	4.08
104	Jamal Agnew	WR	ATL	3.95	3.66	-0.28	4.08
105	Alec Pierce	WR	IND	7.59	5.61	-1.97	4.01
106	Trenton Irwin	WR	NYJ	6.70	5.22	-1.49	3.98
107	Chris Moore	WR	WAS	8.29	4.55	-3.74	3.89
108	Simi Fehoko	WR	ARI	2.88	3.95	+1.08	3.88
109	Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	WR	IND	7.73	6.54	-1.20	3.84
110	Michael Thomas	WR	NO	12.58	8.98	-3.60	3.72
111	Elijah Moore	WR	PHI	6.91	8.15	+1.24	3.71
112	Kyle Philips	WR	PHI	5.65	4.14	-1.51	3.65
113	Brandon Powell	WR	MIN	3.51	3.85	+0.34	3.64
114	Justin Watson	WR	HOU	3.86	5.93	+2.07	3.60
115	Samori Toure	WR	NO	5.80	2.23	-3.58	3.58
116	DeVante Parker	WR	NE	6.83	5.57	-1.26	3.58
117	Dyami Brown	WR	WAS	3.90	2.19	-1.71	3.53
118	Kalif Raymond	WR	CHI	7.35	5.73	-1.62	3.50
119	Hunter Renfrow	WR	CAR	6.41	3.46	-2.95	3.46
120	Dee Eskridge	WR	MIA	3.54	0.13	-3.41	3.41
121	Robert Woods	WR	HOU	8.13	6.38	-1.75	3.40
122	Scott Miller	WR	PIT	4.29	3.61	-0.68	3.40
123	Andre Baccellia	WR	ARI	3.36	0.00	-3.36	3.36
124	Jalen Tolbert	WR	MIA	3.00	4.34	+1.34	3.35
125	Keith Kirkwood	WR	BAL	4.52	2.10	-2.42	3.35
126	Cedrick Wilson Jr.	WR	MIA	3.37	6.33	+2.96	3.28
127	James Proche	WR	TEN	3.28	0.00	-3.28	3.28
128	Laviska Shenault Jr.	WR	LAC	5.89	2.69	-3.20	3.20
129	KaVontae Turpin	WR	DAL	1.40	3.73	+2.33	3.13
130	Laquon Treadwell	WR	IND	4.43	1.30	-3.13	3.13
131	KhaDarel Hodge	WR	ATL	4.28	2.66	-1.62	3.13
132	Austin Trammell	WR	JAX	3.25	0.46	-2.79	3.08
133	Skyy Moore	WR	GB	4.47	4.13	-0.34	3.05
134	Braxton Berrios	WR	HOU	4.35	3.75	-0.61	3.05
135	River Cracraft	WR	WAS	4.24	4.52	+0.28	3.00
136	Jalen Reagor	WR	LAC	1.62	3.30	+1.68	2.94
137	Gunner Olszewski	WR	NYG	2.79	0.42	-2.37	2.93
138	Juwann Winfree	WR	IND	2.88	0.00	-2.88	2.88
139	Byron Pringle	WR	WAS	4.36	2.32	-2.04	2.86
140	Mike Strachan	WR	WAS	3.57	2.75	-0.82	2.82
141	Kadarius Toney	WR	CLE	4.75	4.08	-0.67	2.82
142	Mason Kinsey	WR	TEN	3.05	0.27	-2.79	2.79
143	Ihmir Smith-Marsette	WR	ARI	2.73	2.03	-0.70	2.77
144	Tyquan Thornton	WR	KC	5.76	3.02	-2.74	2.74
145	Tylan Wallace	WR	CLE	2.99	1.35	-1.64	2.65
146	Zach Pascal	WR	ARI	3.11	0.66	-2.46	2.64
147	Jalen Guyton	WR	LV	2.26	3.56	+1.30	2.59
148	Steven Sims	WR	ARI	3.82	1.87	-1.96	2.42
149	Dareke Young	WR	LV	2.41	0.00	-2.41	2.41
150	Deonte Harty	WR	BAL	2.18	2.81	+0.64	2.37
151	Ray-Ray McCloud	WR	NYG	3.80	2.38	-1.42	2.28
152	Trent Taylor	WR	SF	2.13	-0.01	-2.14	2.14
153	Tim Jones	WR	JAX	2.89	1.93	-0.96	1.96
154	Deven Thompkins	WR	ATL	1.66	2.05	+0.39	1.79
155	Stanley Morgan	WR	TEN	1.64	0.00	-1.64	1.64
156	Montrell Washington	WR	KC	1.63	0.00	-1.63	1.63
157	Britain Covey	WR	PHI	1.28	0.55	-0.73	1.50
158	Jaelon Darden	WR	SEA	1.41	0.00	-1.41	1.41
159	Miles Boykin	WR	CHI	1.83	0.59	-1.24	1.24
160	Andy Isabella	WR	PIT	1.16	0.00	-1.16	1.16
161	Matthew Slater	WR	NE	1.13	0.00	-1.13	1.13
162	Jalen Nailor	WR	LV	2.62	1.97	-0.65	1.10
163	DJ Turner	WR	LV	1.08	0.00	-1.08	1.08
164	Dan Chisena	WR	CAR	0.99	0.00	-0.99	0.99