Predicted vs. actual

A weekly backtest of the model. Per-position MAE, calibration by predicted-points decile, residual distribution, and rank fidelity.

Position

All QB RB WR TE

Format

PPR Standard

Season

2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020

QB MAE

6.89

532 weeks · -0.17 bias

RB MAE

5.32

1,170 weeks · +0.15 bias

WR MAE

5.32

1,852 weeks · +0.08 bias

TE MAE

3.96

1,002 weeks · +0.09 bias

Diagnostics — WR · 1,852 weeks

MAE

5.32

lower is better

RMSE

7.06

penalizes large misses

Calibration · predicted vs. actual by decile

Each point is a decile of predicted points. A well-calibrated model sits on the 45° line — points above mean the model under-predicts; below, it over-predicts.

Residual distribution · actual − predicted

How miss-magnitudes spread out. Mass left of zero = over-predicted weeks; mass right = under-predicted. Centered, narrow = good.

< −15

6 (0%)

−15 to −10

68 (4%)

−10 to −5

324 (17%)

−5 to −2

430 (23%)

−2 to 0

265 (14%)

0 to 2

193 (10%)

2 to 5

201

Per-decile error decomposition

Rows are predicted-points deciles (D1 = bottom 10% of predictions, D10 = top 10%). Bias is the model's systematic over- or under-shoot within that bucket.

Decile	n	Pred (μ)	Actual (μ)	Bias	MAE	RMSE
D1	186	1.91	1.75	+0.15	2.14	3.07
D2	186	3.50	5.35	-1.85	3.67	5.13
D3	185	4.56	4.74	-0.18	4.03	5.47
D4	185	5.38	5.18	+0.20	4.95	6.86
D5	185	6.96	7.55	-0.59	5.92	7.33
D6	185	8.51	7.97	+0.54	5.21	6.55
D7	185	9.67	9.77	-0.10	6.30	8.02
D8	185	11.78	10.87	+0.91	6.58	8.00
D9	185	13.77	13.53	+0.24	6.81	8.21
D10	185	16.96	15.45	+1.51	7.62	9.68

No.	Player	Pos	Team	Pred ppg	Actual ppg	Δ ppg	MAE↓
1	Rashee Rice	WR	KC	9.99	16.23	+6.23	11.31
2	Mike Williams	WR	LAC	14.58	4.02	-10.56	10.56
3	Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	9.93	18.51	+8.57	10.10
4	Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	16.69	23.71	+7.02	9.87
5	Keenan Allen	WR	LAC	18.90	12.72	-6.18	9.68
6	Diontae Johnson	WR	HOU	11.76	8.10	-3.66	9.54
7	Jauan Jennings	WR	SF	5.40	14.03	+8.64	9.04
8	Michael Pittman	WR	PIT	18.24	10.36	-7.88	8.78
9	Rashid Shaheed	WR	SEA	7.62	13.63	+6.01	8.70
10	Jameson Williams	WR	DET	7.24	14.15	+6.90	8.64
11	Cooper Kupp	WR	SEA	13.98	14.58	+0.60	8.47
12	Cedric Tillman	WR	CLE	7.21	8.93	+1.73	8.43
13	Chris Olave	WR	NO	14.06	9.59	-4.47	8.39
14	Brandon Aiyuk	WR	SF	14.91	8.91	-6.00	8.25
15	Mike Evans	WR	SF	13.44	17.17	+3.74	8.24
16	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	SEA	8.67	14.88	+6.22	8.11
17	Tyreek Hill	WR	MIA	18.94	12.84	-6.11	8.09
18	Jordan Addison	WR	MIN	10.51	14.17	+3.66	8.02
19	Jonathan Mingo	WR	DAL	10.50	2.48	-8.02	8.02
20	Jerry Jeudy	WR	CLE	9.04	13.97	+4.93	7.79
21	Davante Adams	WR	LA	16.46	17.86	+1.40	7.70
22	Jaylen Waddle	WR	DEN	14.53	9.97	-4.56	7.49
23	Allen Lazard	WR	NYJ	6.80	10.50	+3.70	7.42
24	Quentin Johnston	WR	LAC	6.55	11.65	+5.10	7.41
25	Kendrick Bourne	WR	ARI	11.88	5.42	-6.46	7.39
26	Chris Godwin Jr.	WR	TB	12.61	19.69	+7.08	7.27
27	Puka Nacua	WR	LA	16.28	18.78	+2.51	7.27
28	Terry McLaurin	WR	WAS	12.70	15.75	+3.05	7.20
29	Darnell Mooney	WR	NYG	9.38	12.24	+2.86	7.13
30	Alec Pierce	WR	IND	9.50	10.09	+0.59	7.04
31	Amari Cooper	WR	BUF	13.08	9.44	-3.64	6.95
32	Drake London	WR	ATL	11.40	16.52	+5.12	6.86
33	Curtis Samuel	WR	BUF	10.18	4.62	-5.56	6.79
34	Josh Downs	WR	IND	10.09	13.11	+3.02	6.76
35	Gabe Davis	WR	BUF	9.71	5.39	-4.33	6.69
36	Deebo Samuel Sr.	WR	WAS	13.12	10.37	-2.74	6.68
37	DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	14.50	15.34	+0.84	6.68
38	Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	17.33	18.60	+1.27	6.65
39	Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	14.36	18.68	+4.31	6.63
40	Christian Kirk	WR	SF	13.58	8.86	-4.71	6.63
41	Zay Flowers	WR	BAL	13.02	12.32	-0.69	6.54
42	Courtland Sutton	WR	DEN	10.35	15.02	+4.67	6.53
43	Rashod Bateman	WR	BAL	5.54	10.91	+5.37	6.35
44	Jayden Reed	WR	GB	10.31	11.59	+1.28	6.32
45	DeAndre Hopkins	WR	BAL	12.09	9.19	-2.90	6.24
46	Marvin Mims Jr.	WR	DEN	5.56	7.62	+2.06	6.23
47	Adam Thielen	WR	PIT	14.36	13.95	-0.41	6.14
48	Treylon Burks	WR	WAS	7.61	1.50	-6.11	6.11
49	DJ Moore	WR	BUF	16.05	14.01	-2.05	6.08
50	Robert Woods	WR	HOU	8.79	2.74	-6.06	6.06
51	Khalil Shakir	WR	BUF	7.11	12.17	+5.06	6.01
52	Odell Beckham Jr.	WR	MIA	7.88	1.91	-5.96	5.96
53	Jahan Dotson	WR	ATL	7.65	3.11	-4.54	5.93
54	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	WR	DAL	4.88	6.50	+1.62	5.88
55	K.J. Osborn	WR	TEN	7.76	2.67	-5.09	5.86
56	Zay Jones	WR	ARI	8.37	2.73	-5.64	5.76
57	Josh Reynolds	WR	NYJ	8.42	4.36	-4.06	5.74
58	CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	17.78	17.56	-0.22	5.74
59	Calvin Ridley	WR	TEN	12.06	11.56	-0.50	5.73
60	Tank Dell	WR	HOU	12.58	10.00	-2.58	5.73
61	Elijah Moore	WR	PHI	9.50	7.11	-2.39	5.72
62	A.J. Brown	WR	PHI	16.27	16.68	+0.42	5.66
63	Demarcus Robinson	WR	SF	8.48	7.26	-1.22	5.65
64	DK Metcalf	WR	PIT	14.39	12.75	-1.64	5.59
65	George Pickens	WR	DAL	14.06	11.74	-2.32	5.52
66	Nico Collins	WR	HOU	13.92	17.55	+3.63	5.49
67	Darius Slayton	WR	NYG	8.85	6.88	-1.97	5.46
68	Tyler Lockett	WR	LV	11.08	7.12	-3.97	5.45
69	Skyy Moore	WR	GB	5.39	0.00	-5.39	5.39
70	Kadarius Toney	WR	CLE	5.22	-0.13	-5.35	5.35
71	Garrett Wilson	WR	NYJ	12.64	14.82	+2.18	5.33
72	Allen Robinson	WR	DET	6.20	0.96	-5.24	5.24
73	Trenton Irwin	WR	NYJ	5.99	0.75	-5.24	5.24
74	Calvin Austin III	WR	NYG	3.72	7.11	+3.38	5.23
75	Dontayvion Wicks	WR	PHI	7.93	6.50	-1.43	5.22
76	Jalen Tolbert	WR	MIA	4.77	8.94	+4.17	5.16
77	Jalin Hyatt	WR	NYG	6.42	1.42	-5.00	5.15
78	Stefon Diggs	WR	NE	15.51	15.24	-0.27	5.12
79	Ray-Ray McCloud	WR	NYG	3.24	8.13	+4.89	5.04
80	JuJu Smith-Schuster	WR	KC	5.76	4.80	-0.96	4.98
81	Kayshon Boutte	WR	NE	4.59	8.13	+3.54	4.95
82	Olamide Zaccheaus	WR	ATL	4.55	7.49	+2.94	4.93
83	Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	WR	IND	7.41	9.69	+2.28	4.90
84	DJ Chark	WR	LAC	8.17	3.27	-4.89	4.89
85	Alex Erickson	WR	HOU	4.86	0.00	-4.86	4.86
86	Jakobi Meyers	WR	JAX	12.78	14.53	+1.75	4.77
87	Parker Washington	WR	JAX	4.60	6.93	+2.33	4.76
88	Jalen Nailor	WR	LV	3.97	7.00	+3.03	4.74
89	Andrei Iosivas	WR	CIN	3.56	7.05	+3.49	4.70
90	Kalif Raymond	WR	CHI	5.57	4.71	-0.86	4.69
91	Braxton Berrios	WR	HOU	4.64	0.00	-4.64	4.64
92	Brandon Johnson	WR	PIT	6.54	1.90	-4.64	4.64
93	Christian Watson	WR	GB	8.84	7.52	-1.32	4.60
94	Cedrick Wilson Jr.	WR	MIA	6.65	3.93	-2.72	4.58
95	Xavier Gipson	WR	NYG	5.29	0.96	-4.33	4.56
96	Tyler Scott	WR	LA	4.93	0.38	-4.55	4.55
97	Parris Campbell	WR	DAL	4.73	3.75	-0.98	4.54
98	Tre Tucker	WR	LV	3.99	7.61	+3.62	4.52
99	Tyler Boyd	WR	TEN	9.25	4.77	-4.48	4.50
100	Romeo Doubs	WR	NE	8.59	10.16	+1.57	4.46
101	Jamison Crowder	WR	WAS	2.72	5.64	+2.92	4.44
102	Austin Trammell	WR	JAX	1.58	6.00	+4.42	4.42
103	Terrace Marshall Jr.	WR	MIA	5.58	1.42	-4.16	4.16
104	Marquise Brown	WR	PHI	13.12	9.05	-4.07	4.07
105	Brandon Powell	WR	MIN	4.88	0.88	-4.00	4.00
106	Noah Brown	WR	WAS	9.65	7.85	-1.80	3.97
107	Trey Palmer	WR	NO	5.53	2.35	-3.18	3.93
108	Greg Dortch	WR	DET	5.77	5.31	-0.46	3.81
109	Michael Wilson	WR	ARI	8.38	7.78	-0.60	3.81
110	DeMario Douglas	WR	NE	8.36	9.23	+0.87	3.80
111	KhaDarel Hodge	WR	ATL	4.34	2.61	-1.73	3.77
112	Mack Hollins	WR	NE	4.90	5.81	+0.91	3.74
113	KaVontae Turpin	WR	DAL	3.67	6.13	+2.46	3.65
114	Tutu Atwell	WR	MIA	7.33	6.59	-0.74	3.64
115	Wan'Dale Robinson	WR	TEN	8.78	10.75	+1.97	3.59
116	Josh Palmer	WR	BUF	9.14	7.16	-1.98	3.50
117	Isaiah Hodgins	WR	NYG	5.10	1.60	-3.50	3.50
118	John Metchie III	WR	CAR	3.54	5.54	+2.00	3.49
119	Nelson Agholor	WR	BAL	5.73	3.78	-1.95	3.48
120	Mecole Hardman	WR	BUF	4.27	2.77	-1.51	3.45
121	Sterling Shepard	WR	TB	3.17	6.18	+3.00	3.44
122	DJ Turner	WR	LV	1.11	3.93	+2.82	3.38
123	David Moore	WR	CAR	3.64	5.67	+2.03	3.36
124	Tim Jones	WR	JAX	4.23	0.89	-3.34	3.34
125	Brandin Cooks	WR	BUF	8.56	6.96	-1.60	3.30
126	Lil'Jordan Humphrey	WR	DEN	4.85	4.59	-0.26	3.28
127	Zach Pascal	WR	ARI	3.20	0.00	-3.20	3.20
128	Justin Watson	WR	HOU	5.79	4.19	-1.60	3.17
129	Scott Miller	WR	PIT	3.50	1.98	-1.52	3.16
130	River Cracraft	WR	WAS	4.61	2.72	-1.89	3.15
131	Malik Heath	WR	ATL	3.27	6.34	+3.07	3.09
132	Jake Bobo	WR	SEA	4.79	2.48	-2.31	2.88
133	Justyn Ross	WR	KC	2.88	0.00	-2.88	2.88
134	Van Jefferson	WR	WAS	4.40	4.12	-0.27	2.79
135	Tylan Wallace	WR	CLE	1.26	3.02	+1.76	2.78
136	Simi Fehoko	WR	ARI	0.88	2.77	+1.89	2.77
137	Erik Ezukanma	WR	JAX	2.64	0.00	-2.64	2.64
138	Jalen Brooks	WR	ARI	4.97	2.98	-2.00	2.64
139	Deonte Harty	WR	BAL	2.51	0.00	-2.51	2.51
140	Dyami Brown	WR	WAS	3.28	4.49	+1.21	2.44
141	Robbie Chosen	WR	WAS	3.94	1.50	-2.44	2.44
142	Jalen Reagor	WR	LAC	4.31	2.22	-2.09	2.44
143	Devin Duvernay	WR	ARI	2.77	1.34	-1.43	2.40
144	Britain Covey	WR	PHI	1.25	2.08	+0.83	2.36
145	Deven Thompkins	WR	ATL	3.26	1.34	-1.92	2.34
146	Tyquan Thornton	WR	KC	4.38	2.17	-2.21	2.33
147	Derius Davis	WR	LAC	2.63	2.67	+0.04	2.33
148	Laviska Shenault Jr.	WR	LAC	3.11	1.47	-1.64	2.22
149	Trent Sherfield	WR	BUF	3.22	1.86	-1.36	2.17
150	Steven Sims	WR	ARI	2.07	0.00	-2.07	2.07
151	Rakim Jarrett	WR	PIT	2.99	2.67	-0.32	2.02
152	David Bell	WR	CLE	3.69	5.70	+2.01	2.01
153	Cody Thompson	WR	TB	1.98	0.00	-1.98	1.98
154	Ben Skowronek	WR	PIT	2.50	1.32	-1.17	1.85
155	Xavier Hutchinson	WR	HOU	3.09	1.69	-1.40	1.83
156	Ihmir Smith-Marsette	WR	ARI	1.51	0.40	-1.11	1.72
157	Charlie Jones	WR	CIN	1.40	1.07	-0.33	1.72
158	Ronnie Bell	WR	NO	2.69	1.05	-1.64	1.64
159	DeAndre Carter	WR	CLE	1.23	1.22	-0.01	1.60
160	James Proche	WR	TEN	1.25	0.57	-0.69	1.28
161	Dee Eskridge	WR	MIA	1.22	1.48	+0.26	1.26
162	Irvin Charles	WR	NYJ	1.15	0.00	-1.15	1.15
163	Trent Taylor	WR	SF	1.43	1.05	-0.38	1.09
164	Mason Kinsey	WR	TEN	1.26	0.62	-0.64	1.06
165	Montrell Washington	WR	KC	0.93	0.00	-0.93	0.93