A weekly backtest of the model. Mean absolute error per position, plus the players where we were most and least correct.
| No. | Player | Pos | Team | Pred ppg | Actual ppg | Δ ppg | MAE↓ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Puka Nacua | WR | LA | 14.90 | 23.44 | +8.54 | 10.60 |
| 2 | Drake London |
| WR |
| ATL |
| 11.62 |
| 16.82 |
| +5.20 |
| 10.26 |
| 3 | Rashee Rice | WR | KC | 11.16 | 18.76 | +7.60 | 9.88 |
| 4 | George Pickens | WR | DAL | 11.13 | 17.17 | +6.04 | 9.38 |
| 5 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | SEA | 12.84 | 21.17 | +8.33 | 8.87 |
| 6 | Malik Nabers | WR | NYG | 11.82 | 14.28 | +2.45 | 8.71 |
| 7 | DJ Moore | WR | BUF | 13.38 | 10.25 | -3.13 | 8.54 |
| 8 | Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | TEN | 9.65 | 13.71 | +4.07 | 8.46 |
| 9 | Emeka Egbuka | WR | TB | 12.09 | 11.51 | -0.58 | 8.37 |
| 10 | Michael Wilson | WR | ARI | 6.74 | 12.98 | +6.23 | 8.30 |
| 11 | Ja'Marr Chase | WR | CIN | 15.36 | 19.60 | +4.24 | 8.15 |
| 12 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | DET | 16.25 | 19.06 | +2.81 | 8.05 |
| 13 | Courtland Sutton | WR | DEN | 9.65 | 12.92 | +3.28 | 8.01 |
| 14 | Jameson Williams | WR | DET | 9.43 | 12.94 | +3.50 | 7.93 |
| 15 | A.J. Brown | WR | PHI | 12.52 | 14.69 | +2.17 | 7.85 |
| 16 | Zay Flowers | WR | BAL | 13.52 | 14.31 | +0.79 | 7.67 |
| 17 | Christian Watson | WR | GB | 6.67 | 13.24 | +6.57 | 7.62 |
| 18 | Rome Odunze | WR | CHI | 7.22 | 12.17 | +4.95 | 7.58 |
| 19 | Kyle Williams | WR | NE | 8.92 | 3.51 | -5.40 | 7.51 |
| 20 | Tory Horton | WR | SEA | 6.43 | 8.14 | +1.70 | 7.43 |
| 21 | Michael Pittman | WR | PIT | 9.98 | 11.72 | +1.73 | 7.42 |
| 22 | Parker Washington | WR | JAX | 5.25 | 11.54 | +6.30 | 7.39 |
| 23 | Davante Adams | WR | LA | 13.50 | 15.92 | +2.42 | 7.29 |
| 24 | Garrett Wilson | WR | NYJ | 12.67 | 14.21 | +1.54 | 7.14 |
| 25 | Justin Jefferson | WR | MIN | 15.98 | 11.85 | -4.13 | 7.12 |
| 26 | Keenan Allen | WR | LAC | 10.58 | 10.75 | +0.17 | 7.05 |
| 27 | Quentin Johnston | WR | LAC | 8.23 | 13.17 | +4.94 | 6.97 |
| 28 | Chris Olave | WR | NO | 12.14 | 16.75 | +4.61 | 6.93 |
| 29 | Alec Pierce | WR | IND | 7.69 | 12.22 | +4.53 | 6.87 |
| 30 | Calvin Ridley | WR | TEN | 12.91 | 6.76 | -6.15 | 6.80 |
| 31 | Troy Franklin | WR | DEN | 4.94 | 10.42 | +5.47 | 6.80 |
| 32 | Cooper Kupp | WR | SEA | 13.09 | 7.27 | -5.82 | 6.71 |
| 33 | CeeDee Lamb | WR | DAL | 11.99 | 15.45 | +3.47 | 6.70 |
| 34 | Ricky Pearsall | WR | SF | 6.39 | 9.84 | +3.45 | 6.68 |
| 35 | Adam Thielen | WR | PIT | 9.45 | 2.83 | -6.62 | 6.62 |
| 36 | Jaylen Waddle | WR | DEN | 9.03 | 12.13 | +3.10 | 6.62 |
| 37 | Mecole Hardman | WR | BUF | 6.59 | 0.00 | -6.59 | 6.59 |
| 38 | DeVonta Smith | WR | PHI | 12.11 | 11.87 | -0.24 | 6.49 |
| 39 | Chris Godwin Jr. | WR | TB | 13.84 | 9.22 | -4.62 | 6.46 |
| 40 | Christian Kirk | WR | SF | 10.32 | 5.63 | -4.69 | 6.42 |
| 41 | Tyreek Hill | WR | MIA | 11.93 | 13.38 | +1.45 | 6.42 |
| 42 | DeAndre Hopkins | WR | BAL | 8.57 | 3.94 | -4.62 | 6.35 |
| 43 | Khalil Shakir | WR | BUF | 9.78 | 10.40 | +0.62 | 6.32 |
| 44 | Ryan Flournoy | WR | DAL | 2.25 | 7.60 | +5.35 | 6.26 |
| 45 | Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | ARI | 10.13 | 10.65 | +0.53 | 6.20 |
| 46 | Jalen McMillan | WR | TB | 8.61 | 7.47 | -1.14 | 6.17 |
| 47 | Tee Higgins | WR | CIN | 10.81 | 14.11 | +3.30 | 6.04 |
| 48 | Nico Collins | WR | HOU | 11.98 | 15.08 | +3.10 | 5.95 |
| 49 | Justin Watson | WR | HOU | 7.91 | 2.00 | -5.91 | 5.91 |
| 50 | Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | JAX | 12.57 | 9.91 | -2.66 | 5.88 |
| 51 | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | WR | IND | 7.32 | 1.53 | -5.79 | 5.79 |
| 52 | Kayshon Boutte | WR | NE | 4.99 | 8.86 | +3.87 | 5.74 |
| 53 | Parris Campbell | WR | DAL | 5.70 | 0.00 | -5.70 | 5.70 |
| 54 | Isaac TeSlaa | WR | DET | 6.07 | 5.42 | -0.65 | 5.64 |
| 55 | Brandin Cooks | WR | BUF | 8.37 | 4.22 | -4.15 | 5.63 |
| 56 | Jauan Jennings | WR | SF | 11.09 | 11.55 | +0.47 | 5.62 |
| 57 | Tez Johnson | WR | TB | 5.04 | 6.16 | +1.12 | 5.54 |
| 58 | Chimere Dike | WR | TEN | 5.67 | 7.54 | +1.86 | 5.53 |
| 59 | Ray-Ray McCloud | WR | NYG | 7.82 | 2.32 | -5.50 | 5.50 |
| 60 | Romeo Doubs | WR | NE | 7.81 | 11.03 | +3.22 | 5.41 |
| 61 | Tre Tucker | WR | LV | 5.14 | 9.51 | +4.37 | 5.37 |
| 62 | Ladd McConkey | WR | LAC | 11.17 | 11.31 | +0.14 | 5.37 |
| 63 | DeMario Douglas | WR | NE | 8.68 | 5.99 | -2.69 | 5.23 |
| 64 | Efton Chism III | WR | NE | 5.79 | 2.06 | -3.73 | 5.21 |
| 65 | Demarcus Robinson | WR | SF | 8.78 | 4.16 | -4.62 | 5.20 |
| 66 | Jalen Nailor | WR | LV | 4.42 | 6.29 | +1.87 | 5.17 |
| 67 | DK Metcalf | WR | PIT | 10.40 | 12.48 | +2.08 | 5.17 |
| 68 | Ronnie Bell | WR | NO | 4.92 | 5.15 | +0.23 | 5.15 |
| 69 | Devaughn Vele | WR | NO | 7.00 | 7.37 | +0.36 | 5.15 |
| 70 | Chris Blair | WR | ATL | 5.13 | 0.00 | -5.13 | 5.13 |
| 71 | Kendrick Bourne | WR | ARI | 6.46 | 6.52 | +0.06 | 5.13 |
| 72 | Tetairoa McMillan | WR | CAR | 12.55 | 12.55 | +0.00 | 5.10 |
| 73 | Tyquan Thornton | WR | KC | 4.63 | 6.73 | +2.10 | 5.10 |
| 74 | Jayden Higgins | WR | HOU | 5.88 | 7.62 | +1.74 | 5.09 |
| 75 | Jerry Jeudy | WR | CLE | 11.13 | 7.10 | -4.03 | 5.06 |
| 76 | Marquise Brown | WR | PHI | 9.61 | 8.56 | -1.05 | 5.04 |
| 77 | Deebo Samuel Sr. | WR | WAS | 9.49 | 11.76 | +2.27 | 5.03 |
| 78 | Tutu Atwell | WR | MIA | 6.48 | 3.90 | -2.58 | 4.99 |
| 79 | Tim Patrick | WR | JAX | 4.35 | 3.98 | -0.37 | 4.99 |
| 80 | Jordan Addison | WR | MIN | 9.99 | 9.65 | -0.34 | 4.98 |
| 81 | Rashod Bateman | WR | BAL | 7.80 | 4.26 | -3.54 | 4.94 |
| 82 | Luther Burden III | WR | CHI | 6.89 | 8.53 | +1.64 | 4.90 |
| 83 | Kaden Davis | WR | CLE | 4.89 | 0.00 | -4.89 | 4.89 |
| 84 | Rashid Shaheed | WR | SEA | 10.23 | 8.36 | -1.88 | 4.88 |
| 85 | Jalen Coker | WR | CAR | 7.13 | 8.22 | +1.09 | 4.87 |
| 86 | Greg Dortch | WR | DET | 5.26 | 6.26 | +0.99 | 4.84 |
| 87 | Xavier Legette | WR | CAR | 6.51 | 5.95 | -0.55 | 4.82 |
| 88 | Hunter Renfrow | WR | CAR | 4.52 | 5.98 | +1.46 | 4.80 |
| 89 | Darnell Mooney | WR | NYG | 9.19 | 5.76 | -3.42 | 4.79 |
| 90 | Roman Wilson | WR | PIT | 4.61 | 4.29 | -0.32 | 4.73 |
| 91 | Elijah Moore | WR | PHI | 5.93 | 3.10 | -2.83 | 4.72 |
| 92 | Luke McCaffrey | WR | WAS | 2.43 | 5.70 | +3.27 | 4.71 |
| 93 | Calvin Austin III | WR | NYG | 5.09 | 6.32 | +1.23 | 4.68 |
| 94 | Isaiah Hodgins | WR | NYG | 5.77 | 4.58 | -1.18 | 4.66 |
| 95 | Adonai Mitchell | WR | NYJ | 3.83 | 5.75 | +1.92 | 4.64 |
| 96 | Dante Pettis | WR | NO | 5.51 | 2.46 | -3.05 | 4.56 |
| 97 | Jayden Reed | WR | GB | 12.05 | 9.70 | -2.35 | 4.55 |
| 98 | Terry McLaurin | WR | WAS | 8.86 | 11.42 | +2.56 | 4.55 |
| 99 | Stefon Diggs | WR | NE | 12.48 | 12.37 | -0.11 | 4.55 |
| 100 | Devontez Walker | WR | BAL | 3.85 | 4.70 | +0.85 | 4.53 |
| 101 | Marvin Mims Jr. | WR | DEN | 6.76 | 6.33 | -0.42 | 4.49 |
| 102 | Jahdae Walker | WR | CHI | 2.81 | 4.45 | +1.64 | 4.37 |
| 103 | Josh Palmer | WR | BUF | 8.05 | 4.36 | -3.69 | 4.32 |
| 104 | Josh Downs | WR | IND | 8.52 | 8.65 | +0.13 | 4.29 |
| 105 | Xavier Restrepo | WR | TEN | 7.76 | 3.55 | -4.21 | 4.21 |
| 106 | Dontayvion Wicks | WR | PHI | 6.48 | 5.83 | -0.65 | 4.18 |
| 107 | John Metchie III | WR | CAR | 3.46 | 5.38 | +1.91 | 4.17 |
| 108 | Xavier Hutchinson | WR | HOU | 2.48 | 6.13 | +3.64 | 4.17 |
| 109 | Isaiah Williams | WR | NYJ | 2.94 | 4.05 | +1.11 | 4.14 |
| 110 | Kameron Johnson | WR | TB | 3.63 | 1.04 | -2.59 | 4.13 |
| 111 | Jalen Royals | WR | KC | 5.33 | 1.20 | -4.13 | 4.13 |
| 112 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | WR | DAL | 5.45 | 3.56 | -1.89 | 4.12 |
| 113 | Tyler Johnson | WR | DAL | 4.01 | 4.71 | +0.70 | 4.11 |
| 114 | Malik Turner | WR | SF | 4.09 | 0.00 | -4.09 | 4.09 |
| 115 | Mack Hollins | WR | NE | 4.69 | 8.10 | +3.41 | 4.09 |
| 116 | Jalen Tolbert | WR | MIA | 5.96 | 3.86 | -2.10 | 4.09 |
| 117 | Laquon Treadwell | WR | IND | 4.09 | 0.00 | -4.09 | 4.09 |
| 118 | Gabe Davis | WR | BUF | 7.25 | 5.15 | -2.10 | 4.07 |
| 119 | Andrei Iosivas | WR | CIN | 6.62 | 5.99 | -0.63 | 4.05 |
| 120 | Jaylin Noel | WR | HOU | 3.25 | 4.02 | +0.77 | 4.02 |
| 121 | Malik Washington | WR | MIA | 3.79 | 6.86 | +3.07 | 4.00 |
| 122 | Mike Evans | WR | SF | 12.48 | 10.60 | -1.88 | 3.96 |
| 123 | Xavier Gipson | WR | NYG | 4.37 | 0.43 | -3.93 | 3.93 |
| 124 | Jakobi Meyers | WR | JAX | 11.21 | 10.99 | -0.22 | 3.92 |
| 125 | Tom Kennedy | WR | DET | 4.12 | 1.27 | -2.86 | 3.90 |
| 126 | Olamide Zaccheaus | WR | ATL | 5.43 | 6.06 | +0.63 | 3.87 |
| 127 | Matthew Golden | WR | GB | 5.60 | 5.00 | -0.60 | 3.83 |
| 128 | Kalif Raymond | WR | CHI | 5.66 | 4.77 | -0.89 | 3.81 |
| 129 | Keon Coleman | WR | BUF | 8.15 | 8.53 | +0.39 | 3.79 |
| 130 | Cedric Tillman | WR | CLE | 5.71 | 5.00 | -0.71 | 3.78 |
| 131 | Mason Tipton | WR | NO | 5.81 | 2.55 | -3.26 | 3.78 |
| 132 | Zay Jones | WR | ARI | 5.57 | 5.05 | -0.52 | 3.74 |
| 133 | Dyami Brown | WR | WAS | 3.45 | 4.52 | +1.07 | 3.72 |
| 134 | DJ Turner | WR | LV | 3.70 | 0.00 | -3.70 | 3.70 |
| 135 | Brycen Tremayne | WR | CAR | 5.15 | 2.00 | -3.15 | 3.69 |
| 136 | Tyrell Shavers | WR | BUF | 5.48 | 4.14 | -1.34 | 3.69 |
| 137 | Allen Lazard | WR | NYJ | 6.06 | 2.56 | -3.50 | 3.69 |
| 138 | Robbie Chosen | WR | WAS | 4.86 | 3.43 | -1.43 | 3.68 |
| 139 | Jason Brownlee | WR | KC | 3.65 | 0.00 | -3.65 | 3.65 |
| 140 | Ryan Miller | WR | NYG | 3.99 | 1.43 | -2.56 | 3.64 |
| 141 | Mitchell Tinsley | WR | CIN | 4.33 | 3.95 | -0.38 | 3.60 |
| 142 | River Cracraft | WR | WAS | 3.58 | 0.00 | -3.58 | 3.58 |
| 143 | KhaDarel Hodge | WR | ATL | 3.80 | 0.76 | -3.04 | 3.56 |
| 144 | Jalin Hyatt | WR | NYG | 4.35 | 1.42 | -2.94 | 3.56 |
| 145 | Elic Ayomanor | WR | TEN | 5.55 | 7.28 | +1.73 | 3.55 |
| 146 | Jonathan Mingo | WR | DAL | 4.23 | 0.70 | -3.53 | 3.55 |
| 147 | Sterling Shepard | WR | TB | 4.14 | 6.31 | +2.17 | 3.49 |
| 148 | Lil'Jordan Humphrey | WR | DEN | 4.03 | 4.94 | +0.91 | 3.48 |
| 149 | Chris Moore | WR | WAS | 5.36 | 3.86 | -1.50 | 3.46 |
| 150 | Gunner Olszewski | WR | NYG | 2.27 | 2.24 | -0.03 | 3.44 |
| 151 | Pat Bryant | WR | DEN | 4.76 | 5.75 | +1.00 | 3.41 |
| 152 | Xavier Weaver | WR | ARI | 5.37 | 1.96 | -3.41 | 3.41 |
| 153 | Jamal Agnew | WR | ATL | 3.35 | 0.00 | -3.35 | 3.35 |
| 154 | Curtis Samuel | WR | BUF | 4.31 | 3.52 | -0.80 | 3.35 |
| 155 | Tyler Lockett | WR | LV | 5.39 | 3.95 | -1.44 | 3.33 |
| 156 | JuJu Smith-Schuster | WR | KC | 3.59 | 4.32 | +0.74 | 3.28 |
| 157 | David Sills | WR | TB | 3.14 | 4.46 | +1.32 | 3.21 |
| 158 | KaVontae Turpin | WR | DAL | 4.15 | 5.63 | +1.49 | 3.18 |
| 159 | Cody White | WR | SEA | 2.44 | 2.25 | -0.19 | 3.16 |
| 160 | Kevin Austin Jr. | WR | NO | 7.18 | 6.60 | -0.58 | 3.12 |
| 161 | Jalen Brooks | WR | ARI | 4.30 | 1.62 | -2.68 | 3.00 |
| 162 | Jahan Dotson | WR | ATL | 4.09 | 3.34 | -0.74 | 2.95 |
| 163 | Darius Slayton | WR | NYG | 7.20 | 7.06 | -0.14 | 2.93 |
| 164 | Braxton Berrios | WR | HOU | 2.31 | 2.42 | +0.11 | 2.90 |
| 165 | Jordan Whittington | WR | LA | 5.25 | 2.42 | -2.83 | 2.88 |
| 166 | Shedrick Jackson | WR | LV | 2.43 | 5.30 | +2.87 | 2.87 |
| 167 | Dylan Drummond | WR | ATL | 2.96 | 1.87 | -1.09 | 2.86 |
| 168 | Van Jefferson | WR | WAS | 3.29 | 5.22 | +1.93 | 2.80 |
| 169 | KeAndre Lambert-Smith | WR | LAC | 2.70 | 1.61 | -1.09 | 2.77 |
| 170 | Steven Sims | WR | ARI | 2.77 | 0.00 | -2.77 | 2.77 |
| 171 | Tahj Washington | WR | MIA | 3.62 | 2.35 | -1.27 | 2.76 |
| 172 | Konata Mumpfield | WR | LA | 3.23 | 2.52 | -0.71 | 2.75 |
| 173 | Simi Fehoko | WR | ARI | 2.75 | 0.00 | -2.75 | 2.75 |
| 174 | Tylan Wallace | WR | CLE | 2.58 | 1.45 | -1.13 | 2.72 |
| 175 | Xavier Worthy | WR | KC | 8.73 | 7.85 | -0.88 | 2.71 |
| 176 | Jack Bech | WR | LV | 3.06 | 3.03 | -0.03 | 2.67 |
| 177 | Xavier Smith | WR | LA | 1.47 | 3.02 | +1.55 | 2.67 |
| 178 | Isaiah Bond | WR | CLE | 3.71 | 3.65 | -0.07 | 2.65 |
| 179 | Michael Bandy | WR | DEN | 2.08 | 3.75 | +1.67 | 2.62 |
| 180 | Josh Reynolds | WR | NYJ | 5.24 | 4.62 | -0.62 | 2.57 |
| 181 | Treylon Burks | WR | WAS | 4.39 | 3.63 | -0.77 | 2.52 |
| 182 | Samori Toure | WR | NO | 3.81 | 1.30 | -2.51 | 2.51 |
| 183 | Tre Harris | WR | LAC | 4.26 | 4.34 | +0.08 | 2.50 |
| 184 | Jaylin Lane | WR | WAS | 4.31 | 3.41 | -0.90 | 2.48 |
| 185 | Dont'e Thornton Jr. | WR | LV | 3.87 | 2.14 | -1.73 | 2.37 |
| 186 | Cedrick Wilson Jr. | WR | MIA | 3.89 | 1.57 | -2.33 | 2.33 |
| 187 | Malik Heath | WR | ATL | 2.74 | 2.09 | -0.65 | 2.32 |
| 188 | Ashton Dulin | WR | IND | 2.44 | 1.67 | -0.77 | 2.25 |
| 189 | Jake Bobo | WR | SEA | 2.96 | 0.80 | -2.16 | 2.16 |
| 190 | DeAndre Carter | WR | CLE | 2.16 | 0.00 | -2.16 | 2.16 |
| 191 | Deven Thompkins | WR | ATL | 2.52 | 0.89 | -1.63 | 2.15 |
| 192 | Charlie Jones | WR | CIN | 1.94 | 0.43 | -1.51 | 2.12 |
| 193 | Skyy Moore | WR | GB | 2.84 | 0.92 | -1.92 | 2.08 |
| 194 | Mason Kinsey | WR | TEN | 2.36 | 1.13 | -1.23 | 2.07 |
| 195 | Jamari Thrash | WR | CLE | 4.30 | 2.59 | -1.72 | 2.04 |
| 196 | Savion Williams | WR | GB | 2.64 | 2.13 | -0.52 | 2.03 |
| 197 | Britain Covey | WR | PHI | 1.92 | 0.67 | -1.25 | 2.03 |
| 198 | David Moore | WR | CAR | 2.93 | 0.90 | -2.03 | 2.03 |
| 199 | Derius Davis | WR | LAC | 2.34 | 0.32 | -2.02 | 2.02 |
| 200 | Dareke Young | WR | LV | 2.12 | 0.85 | -1.27 | 1.95 |