Predicted vs. actual

A weekly backtest of the model. Per-position MAE, calibration by predicted-points decile, residual distribution, and rank fidelity.

Position

All QB RB WR TE

Format

PPR Standard

Season

2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020

QB MAE

7.09

662 weeks · -0.01 bias

RB MAE

5.01

1,545 weeks · +0.89 bias

WR MAE

4.60

2,484 weeks · +0.72 bias

TE MAE

3.74

1,269 weeks · +0.28 bias

Diagnostics — WR · 2,484 weeks

MAE

4.60

lower is better

RMSE

6.11

penalizes large misses

Calibration · predicted vs. actual by decile

Each point is a decile of predicted points. A well-calibrated model sits on the 45° line — points above mean the model under-predicts; below, it over-predicts.

Residual distribution · actual − predicted

How miss-magnitudes spread out. Mass left of zero = over-predicted weeks; mass right = under-predicted. Centered, narrow = good.

< −15

3 (0%)

−15 to −10

83 (3%)

−10 to −5

409 (16%)

−5 to −2

688 (28%)

−2 to 0

445 (18%)

0 to 2

263 (11%)

2 to 5

212

Per-decile error decomposition

Rows are predicted-points deciles (D1 = bottom 10% of predictions, D10 = top 10%). Bias is the model's systematic over- or under-shoot within that bucket.

Decile	n	Pred (μ)	Actual (μ)	Bias	MAE	RMSE
D1	249	1.34	1.33	+0.01	1.73	2.56
D2	249	2.68	1.94	+0.74	2.57	3.31
D3	249	3.58	3.51	+0.07	3.51	4.50
D4	249	4.93	4.11	+0.82	3.68	4.71
D5	248	6.27	5.81	+0.46	4.68	5.92
D6	248	7.32	6.72	+0.60	4.99	6.42
D7	248	8.33	7.29	+1.04	5.20	6.40
D8	248	10.78	10.57	+0.21	6.50	8.01
D9	248	13.48	10.78	+2.70	6.07	7.39
D10	248	15.83	15.24	+0.59	7.14	8.78

Model versions in this slice

random_forest_wr_20260515_112700WR:204

xgboost_wr_20260516_025357WR:34

random_forest_wr_20260515_011335WR:663

xgboost_wr_20260516_031154WR:3734

random_forest_wr_20260515_015112WR:986

No.	Player	Pos	Team	Pred ppg	Actual ppg	Δ ppg	MAE↓
1	Malik Nabers	WR	NYG	18.28	14.28	-4.01	13.46
2	Puka Nacua	WR	LA	16.01	23.44	+7.43	9.39
3	Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	15.42	19.60	+4.18	9.38
4	Adam Thielen	WR	PIT	12.00	2.83	-9.17	9.17
5	Drake London	WR	ATL	14.69	16.82	+2.14	9.06
6	Garrett Wilson	WR	NYJ	15.52	14.21	-1.31	8.68
7	Emeka Egbuka	WR	TB	12.09	11.51	-0.58	8.37
8	Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	14.69	19.06	+4.36	8.36
9	George Pickens	WR	DAL	12.32	17.17	+4.85	8.14
10	A.J. Brown	WR	PHI	16.91	14.69	-2.22	8.12
11	Chris Godwin Jr.	WR	TB	15.53	9.22	-6.30	8.08
12	Darnell Mooney	WR	NYG	13.16	5.49	-7.68	8.06
13	DJ Moore	WR	BUF	14.12	10.13	-4.00	8.05
14	Jameson Williams	WR	DET	11.36	12.94	+1.57	7.91
15	Jerry Jeudy	WR	CLE	14.03	7.10	-6.93	7.83
16	Michael Wilson	WR	ARI	7.92	12.98	+5.06	7.80
17	Rome Odunze	WR	CHI	9.91	12.17	+2.26	7.51
18	Kyle Williams	WR	NE	8.92	3.51	-5.40	7.51
19	Tory Horton	WR	SEA	6.43	8.14	+1.70	7.43
20	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	SEA	15.62	21.17	+5.55	7.43
21	Ray-Ray McCloud	WR	NYG	9.70	2.32	-7.38	7.38
22	Alec Pierce	WR	IND	7.84	12.22	+4.38	7.25
23	Christian Watson	WR	GB	7.47	13.24	+5.77	7.03
24	Cooper Kupp	WR	SEA	14.01	7.27	-6.74	6.96
25	Rashee Rice	WR	KC	17.73	18.76	+1.04	6.92
26	Chris Olave	WR	NO	11.10	16.75	+5.65	6.86
27	Quentin Johnston	WR	LAC	9.07	13.17	+4.10	6.79
28	Michael Pittman	WR	PIT	11.78	11.91	+0.13	6.73
29	DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	14.74	11.87	-2.86	6.67
30	Parker Washington	WR	JAX	6.97	11.54	+4.57	6.61
31	Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	17.64	11.85	-5.79	6.57
32	Courtland Sutton	WR	DEN	12.45	12.92	+0.47	6.45
33	Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	WR	IND	7.96	1.53	-6.43	6.43
34	Calvin Ridley	WR	TEN	11.21	6.76	-4.45	6.37
35	Jaylen Waddle	WR	DEN	9.34	12.13	+2.79	6.34
36	Rashid Shaheed	WR	SEA	13.21	8.70	-4.51	6.20
37	Allen Lazard	WR	NYJ	8.58	2.56	-6.03	6.16
38	Brian Thomas Jr.	WR	JAX	14.48	9.91	-4.56	6.13
39	Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	ARI	10.55	10.65	+0.10	6.12
40	Wan'Dale Robinson	WR	TEN	11.25	13.62	+2.37	6.09
41	Troy Franklin	WR	DEN	6.82	10.42	+3.60	6.06
42	Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	13.80	14.11	+0.31	6.00
43	Stefon Diggs	WR	NE	14.42	12.37	-2.05	5.99
44	Ladd McConkey	WR	LAC	14.48	11.31	-3.17	5.99
45	Keenan Allen	WR	LAC	12.63	10.75	-1.88	5.98
46	Ryan Flournoy	WR	DAL	3.17	7.60	+4.43	5.87
47	Davante Adams	WR	LA	16.31	15.92	-0.38	5.86
48	Kayshon Boutte	WR	NE	8.16	8.86	+0.71	5.85
49	Cody White	WR	SEA	6.46	2.25	-4.21	5.82
50	Xavier Legette	WR	CAR	7.67	5.95	-1.72	5.78
51	Ricky Pearsall	WR	SF	7.54	9.84	+2.30	5.71
52	DeMario Douglas	WR	NE	9.50	5.99	-3.51	5.67
53	DeAndre Hopkins	WR	BAL	8.61	3.94	-4.67	5.66
54	Tutu Atwell	WR	MIA	6.76	3.90	-2.86	5.65
55	Tim Patrick	WR	JAX	6.51	3.98	-2.53	5.65
56	Jalen McMillan	WR	TB	7.92	7.47	-0.44	5.65
57	Deebo Samuel Sr.	WR	WAS	10.14	11.76	+1.63	5.64
58	Isaac TeSlaa	WR	DET	6.07	5.42	-0.65	5.64
59	Tez Johnson	WR	TB	5.04	6.16	+1.12	5.54
60	Chimere Dike	WR	TEN	5.67	7.54	+1.86	5.53
61	Parris Campbell	WR	DAL	5.49	0.00	-5.49	5.49
62	Nico Collins	WR	HOU	15.24	15.08	-0.16	5.38
63	Rashod Bateman	WR	BAL	8.05	4.26	-3.79	5.37
64	Jordan Addison	WR	MIN	12.91	9.65	-3.26	5.34
65	Tre Tucker	WR	LV	9.18	9.51	+0.33	5.22
66	Efton Chism III	WR	NE	5.79	2.06	-3.73	5.21
67	Cedric Tillman	WR	CLE	8.81	5.00	-3.81	5.18
68	Ronnie Bell	WR	NO	3.54	5.15	+1.61	5.17
69	Tetairoa McMillan	WR	CAR	12.55	12.55	+0.00	5.10
70	Jayden Higgins	WR	HOU	5.88	7.62	+1.74	5.09
71	Jalen Tolbert	WR	MIA	7.69	3.86	-3.83	5.09
72	Zay Flowers	WR	BAL	13.13	14.31	+1.18	5.02
73	Jakobi Meyers	WR	JAX	14.74	10.99	-3.75	4.97
74	DK Metcalf	WR	PIT	13.49	12.48	-1.01	4.96
75	Romeo Doubs	WR	NE	8.77	10.34	+1.56	4.95
76	Mike Evans	WR	SF	14.28	10.60	-3.68	4.92
77	Luther Burden III	WR	CHI	6.89	8.53	+1.64	4.90
78	Kaden Davis	WR	CLE	4.89	0.00	-4.89	4.89
79	Tyquan Thornton	WR	KC	3.53	6.73	+3.20	4.89
80	Jauan Jennings	WR	SF	13.58	11.55	-2.03	4.88
81	Jalen Coker	WR	CAR	8.38	8.22	-0.16	4.87
82	Terry McLaurin	WR	WAS	14.56	11.42	-3.14	4.86
83	Calvin Austin III	WR	NYG	7.33	6.16	-1.17	4.83
84	Jalen Nailor	WR	LV	6.98	5.92	-1.06	4.82
85	Hunter Renfrow	WR	CAR	4.52	5.98	+1.46	4.80
86	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	WR	DAL	8.15	3.56	-4.60	4.78
87	Greg Dortch	WR	DET	6.20	6.26	+0.06	4.74
88	Roman Wilson	WR	PIT	4.61	4.29	-0.32	4.73
89	Tyler Johnson	WR	DAL	6.26	4.19	-2.07	4.72
90	Dontayvion Wicks	WR	PHI	6.87	5.83	-1.04	4.69
91	Devontez Walker	WR	BAL	2.42	4.70	+2.28	4.67
92	Christian Kirk	WR	SF	8.02	5.26	-2.76	4.64
93	DJ Turner	WR	LV	4.61	0.00	-4.61	4.61
94	David Moore	WR	CAR	5.51	0.90	-4.61	4.61
95	Adonai Mitchell	WR	NYJ	4.66	5.49	+0.84	4.57
96	Elijah Moore	WR	PHI	7.14	3.18	-3.96	4.55
97	Andrei Iosivas	WR	CIN	7.21	5.99	-1.21	4.49
98	Gabe Davis	WR	BUF	6.85	5.15	-1.70	4.48
99	Khalil Shakir	WR	BUF	11.35	10.40	-0.95	4.45
100	Simi Fehoko	WR	ARI	4.45	0.00	-4.45	4.45
101	Kendrick Bourne	WR	ARI	6.17	6.58	+0.41	4.44
102	JuJu Smith-Schuster	WR	KC	7.14	4.32	-2.82	4.42
103	Devaughn Vele	WR	NO	7.00	7.37	+0.37	4.40
104	Luke McCaffrey	WR	WAS	4.01	5.70	+1.69	4.39
105	Jahdae Walker	WR	CHI	2.81	4.45	+1.64	4.37
106	Josh Downs	WR	IND	11.63	8.65	-2.98	4.34
107	Brandin Cooks	WR	BUF	7.26	3.99	-3.27	4.32
108	CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	16.56	15.45	-1.10	4.28
109	Xavier Restrepo	WR	TEN	7.76	3.55	-4.21	4.21
110	Kevin Austin Jr.	WR	NO	4.86	6.60	+1.74	4.20
111	Tyler Lockett	WR	LV	7.38	3.95	-3.44	4.19
112	Ryan Miller	WR	NYG	4.39	1.27	-3.13	4.16
113	Isaiah Hodgins	WR	NYG	3.28	4.58	+1.30	4.16
114	Lil'Jordan Humphrey	WR	DEN	6.13	4.94	-1.19	4.15
115	Jalen Royals	WR	KC	5.33	1.20	-4.13	4.13
116	Dyami Brown	WR	WAS	5.41	4.52	-0.89	4.11
117	Malik Turner	WR	SF	4.09	0.00	-4.09	4.09
118	Laquon Treadwell	WR	IND	4.09	0.00	-4.09	4.09
119	John Metchie III	WR	CAR	5.85	5.53	-0.32	4.06
120	Noah Brown	WR	WAS	7.36	3.33	-4.04	4.04
121	Jaylin Noel	WR	HOU	3.25	4.02	+0.77	4.02
122	Isaiah Williams	WR	NYJ	1.19	4.05	+2.86	4.00
123	Keon Coleman	WR	BUF	8.31	8.53	+0.22	3.99
124	Olamide Zaccheaus	WR	ATL	7.96	6.06	-1.91	3.99
125	Marquise Brown	WR	PHI	7.78	8.61	+0.82	3.94
126	Dante Pettis	WR	NO	4.05	2.46	-1.59	3.89
127	Chris Blair	WR	ATL	3.86	0.00	-3.86	3.86
128	Matthew Golden	WR	GB	5.60	5.00	-0.60	3.83
129	Marvin Mims Jr.	WR	DEN	5.36	6.33	+0.97	3.80
130	Josh Palmer	WR	BUF	7.41	4.36	-3.05	3.75
131	Kalif Raymond	WR	CHI	5.00	4.45	-0.55	3.74
132	Tyrell Shavers	WR	BUF	5.48	4.14	-1.34	3.69
133	Xavier Hutchinson	WR	HOU	4.27	6.13	+1.85	3.69
134	Robbie Chosen	WR	WAS	4.86	3.43	-1.43	3.68
135	Mack Hollins	WR	NE	5.88	8.10	+2.22	3.67
136	Curtis Samuel	WR	BUF	5.36	3.52	-1.85	3.66
137	Jason Brownlee	WR	KC	3.65	0.00	-3.65	3.65
138	Zay Jones	WR	ARI	3.15	5.05	+1.90	3.63
139	Mitchell Tinsley	WR	CIN	4.33	3.95	-0.38	3.60
140	Elic Ayomanor	WR	TEN	5.55	7.28	+1.73	3.55
141	Demarcus Robinson	WR	SF	7.25	4.16	-3.09	3.54
142	KaVontae Turpin	WR	DAL	5.67	5.63	-0.04	3.52
143	Jalen Brooks	WR	ARI	4.99	1.62	-3.37	3.52
144	DeAndre Carter	WR	CLE	3.46	0.00	-3.46	3.46
145	Chris Moore	WR	WAS	5.36	3.86	-1.50	3.46
146	Braxton Berrios	WR	HOU	2.98	2.42	-0.56	3.44
147	Gunner Olszewski	WR	NYG	2.27	2.24	-0.03	3.44
148	Mason Tipton	WR	NO	4.58	2.55	-2.03	3.44
149	Cedrick Wilson Jr.	WR	MIA	4.99	1.57	-3.42	3.42
150	Pat Bryant	WR	DEN	4.76	5.75	+1.00	3.41
151	Xavier Worthy	WR	KC	8.57	7.85	-0.72	3.39
152	Jamal Agnew	WR	ATL	3.35	0.00	-3.35	3.35
153	Darius Slayton	WR	NYG	8.69	7.06	-1.64	3.35
154	Jahan Dotson	WR	ATL	4.59	3.35	-1.24	3.26
155	David Sills	WR	TB	3.14	4.46	+1.32	3.21
156	River Cracraft	WR	WAS	3.18	0.00	-3.18	3.18
157	Justin Watson	WR	HOU	5.13	2.00	-3.13	3.13
158	Kameron Johnson	WR	TB	2.53	1.04	-1.48	3.11
159	Britain Covey	WR	PHI	3.69	0.67	-3.02	3.10
160	Tylan Wallace	WR	CLE	3.06	1.32	-1.74	3.10
161	Tyreek Hill	WR	MIA	14.14	13.38	-0.77	3.04
162	KhaDarel Hodge	WR	ATL	2.90	0.76	-2.13	2.96
163	Devin Duvernay	WR	ARI	3.14	0.27	-2.87	2.90
164	Malik Heath	WR	ATL	4.60	2.09	-2.52	2.89
165	Shedrick Jackson	WR	LV	2.43	5.30	+2.87	2.87
166	Dylan Drummond	WR	ATL	2.96	1.87	-1.09	2.86
167	Sterling Shepard	WR	TB	6.44	6.31	-0.13	2.82
168	Jonathan Mingo	WR	DAL	3.46	0.70	-2.76	2.80
169	Treylon Burks	WR	WAS	4.47	3.63	-0.85	2.77
170	Mecole Hardman	WR	BUF	2.77	0.00	-2.77	2.77
171	Malik Washington	WR	MIA	5.82	6.86	+1.04	2.77
172	KeAndre Lambert-Smith	WR	LAC	2.70	1.61	-1.09	2.77
173	Van Jefferson	WR	WAS	5.33	5.00	-0.33	2.76
174	Tahj Washington	WR	MIA	3.62	2.35	-1.27	2.76
175	Konata Mumpfield	WR	LA	3.23	2.52	-0.71	2.75
176	Xavier Smith	WR	LA	1.27	3.02	+1.75	2.70
177	Jack Bech	WR	LV	3.06	3.03	-0.03	2.67
178	Xavier Weaver	WR	ARI	4.62	1.96	-2.66	2.66
179	Isaiah Bond	WR	CLE	3.71	3.65	-0.07	2.65
180	Jordan Whittington	WR	LA	4.84	2.42	-2.42	2.65
181	Alex Bachman	WR	LV	2.92	0.29	-2.63	2.63
182	Michael Bandy	WR	DEN	2.08	3.75	+1.67	2.62
183	Derius Davis	WR	LAC	2.92	0.32	-2.60	2.60
184	Jalin Hyatt	WR	NYG	3.43	1.42	-2.01	2.58
185	Samori Toure	WR	NO	3.81	1.30	-2.51	2.51
186	Tre Harris	WR	LAC	4.26	4.34	+0.08	2.50
187	Jaylin Lane	WR	WAS	4.31	3.41	-0.90	2.48
188	Dont'e Thornton Jr.	WR	LV	3.87	2.14	-1.73	2.37
189	Jake Bobo	WR	SEA	3.17	0.80	-2.37	2.37
190	Ashton Dulin	WR	IND	2.65	1.67	-0.98	2.37
191	Ben Skowronek	WR	PIT	2.53	1.06	-1.47	2.35
192	Deven Thompkins	WR	ATL	2.59	0.89	-1.71	2.31
193	Josh Reynolds	WR	NYJ	4.19	4.62	+0.43	2.25
194	Brycen Tremayne	WR	CAR	2.17	2.00	-0.17	2.22
195	Tom Kennedy	WR	DET	1.33	1.27	-0.07	2.17
196	Xavier Gipson	WR	NYG	2.55	0.43	-2.12	2.12
197	Jayden Reed	WR	GB	8.36	9.70	+1.34	2.09
198	Skyy Moore	WR	GB	2.80	0.87	-1.93	2.06
199	Savion Williams	WR	GB	2.64	2.13	-0.52	2.03
200	Tay Martin	WR	WAS	0.23	2.15	+1.92	1.92