Predicted vs. actual

A weekly backtest of the model. Per-position MAE, calibration by predicted-points decile, residual distribution, and rank fidelity.

Position

All QB RB WR TE

Format

PPR Standard

Season

2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020

QB MAE

6.51

491 weeks · +0.24 bias

RB MAE

5.95

1,138 weeks · +0.46 bias

WR MAE

5.35

1,954 weeks · +0.02 bias

TE MAE

4.08

910 weeks · +0.24 bias

Diagnostics — All positions · 4,493 weeks

MAE

5.37

lower is better

RMSE

7.00

penalizes large misses

Calibration · predicted vs. actual by decile

Each point is a decile of predicted points. A well-calibrated model sits on the 45° line — points above mean the model under-predicts; below, it over-predicts.

Residual distribution · actual − predicted

How miss-magnitudes spread out. Mass left of zero = over-predicted weeks; mass right = under-predicted. Centered, narrow = good.

< −15

24 (1%)

−15 to −10

153 (3%)

−10 to −5

848 (19%)

−5 to −2

1,053 (23%)

−2 to 0

630 (14%)

0 to 2

417 (9%)

2 to 5

507

Per-decile error decomposition

Rows are predicted-points deciles (D1 = bottom 10% of predictions, D10 = top 10%). Bias is the model's systematic over- or under-shoot within that bucket.

Decile	n	Pred (μ)	Actual (μ)	Bias	MAE	RMSE
D1	450	2.06	2.34	-0.27	2.70	4.36
D2	450	3.62	4.41	-0.79	3.94	5.47
D3	450	5.09	5.29	-0.19	4.03	5.23
D4	449	6.29	6.50	-0.22	4.95	6.36
D5	449	7.73	6.38	+1.35	5.16	6.17
D6	449	8.99	8.71	+0.28	6.11	7.54
D7	449	10.47	10.46	+0.01	6.42	7.87
D8	449	12.49	12.08	+0.41	6.60	8.17
D9	449	14.87	14.42	+0.45	6.75	8.57
D10	449	18.00	17.03	+0.98	7.08	8.72

Model versions in this slice

xgboost_qb_backfill_2021_20260516_002131QB:1122 · backfilled

xgboost_rb_backfill_2021_20260516_002145RB:2414 · backfilled

xgboost_te_backfill_2021_20260516_002202TE:1921 · backfilled

xgboost_wr_backfill_2021_20260516_002149WR:3672 · backfilled

No.	Player	Pos	Team	Pred ppg	Actual ppg	Δ ppg	MAE↓
1	Mitchell Trubisky	QB	TEN	17.70	1.62	-16.08	16.08
2	Ryan Fitzpatrick	QB	WAS	16.47	0.72	-15.75	15.75
3	Cooper Kupp	WR	SEA	12.49	25.85	+13.36	13.56
4	Kyle Allen	QB	BUF	16.90	3.95	-12.95	12.95
5	Derrick Henry	RB	BAL	14.65	24.16	+9.51	12.33
6	Jameis Winston	QB	NYG	5.13	16.77	+11.64	11.64
7	Cyril Grayson	WR	CLE	3.53	14.87	+11.33	11.33
8	Denzel Mims	WR	PIT	13.14	2.13	-11.01	11.01
9	Drew Lock	QB	SEA	18.21	8.65	-9.57	10.89
10	Deebo Samuel Sr.	WR	WAS	10.37	21.18	+10.82	10.82
11	Raheem Mostert	RB	LV	12.75	2.00	-10.75	10.75
12	Rashaad Penny	RB	PHI	2.95	12.17	+9.22	10.74
13	Antonio Brown	WR	TB	10.19	17.30	+7.11	10.60
14	Tyreek Hill	WR	MIA	14.02	17.44	+3.42	10.43
15	Cordarrelle Patterson	RB	PIT	5.64	15.31	+9.68	10.31
16	Kenny Golladay	WR	NYG	16.19	6.48	-9.71	9.94
17	Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	14.41	21.95	+7.53	9.89
18	Leonard Fournette	RB	BUF	8.82	18.26	+9.44	9.84
19	Mike Glennon	QB	MIA	13.66	5.15	-8.51	9.81
20	Cam Newton	QB	CAR	15.48	12.09	-3.39	9.58
21	Chris Hogan	WR	NO	12.37	2.82	-9.55	9.55
22	Mike Williams	WR	LAC	10.78	15.41	+4.63	8.97
23	Kalen Ballage	RB	PIT	9.76	0.80	-8.96	8.96
24	Keke Coutee	WR	IND	10.38	1.50	-8.88	8.88
25	Rob Gronkowski	TE	TB	8.08	14.27	+6.19	8.85
26	Mike Evans	WR	SF	11.04	16.41	+5.37	8.84
27	Saquon Barkley	RB	PHI	16.77	11.43	-5.34	8.82
28	C.J. Beathard	QB	DET	9.51	0.76	-8.75	8.75
29	Danny Amendola	WR	HOU	9.29	8.70	-0.59	8.75
30	Parris Campbell	WR	DAL	14.09	5.37	-8.72	8.72
31	James Conner	RB	ARI	13.69	17.52	+3.83	8.60
32	Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	21.40	18.21	-3.19	8.51
33	Tyler Huntley	QB	BAL	6.23	11.81	+5.57	8.47
34	George Kittle	TE	SF	16.31	14.14	-2.17	8.43
35	Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	16.80	20.04	+3.24	8.38
36	John Brown	WR	BUF	8.37	0.00	-8.37	8.37
37	Willie Snead	WR	SF	9.47	1.11	-8.35	8.35
38	Mark Andrews	TE	BAL	12.28	17.71	+5.43	8.33
39	A.J. Brown	WR	PHI	12.65	13.92	+1.26	8.31
40	Davante Adams	WR	LA	18.81	21.52	+2.71	8.31
41	Will Fuller	WR	MIA	12.60	4.30	-8.30	8.30
42	Brandon Allen	QB	NYG	11.03	2.77	-8.26	8.26
43	Andy Isabella	WR	PIT	8.97	0.77	-8.20	8.20
44	Sam Darnold	QB	SEA	15.31	12.93	-2.39	8.19
45	Tom Brady	QB	TB	17.78	22.04	+4.26	8.18
46	Kareem Hunt	RB	KC	13.21	13.75	+0.54	8.17
47	Dontrell Hilliard	RB	TEN	1.23	9.09	+7.86	8.15
48	K.J. Osborn	WR	TEN	1.31	9.32	+8.01	8.15
49	David Johnson	RB	NO	14.31	6.25	-8.05	8.05
50	Tyler Lockett	WR	LV	11.50	15.09	+3.59	8.04
51	D'Andre Swift	RB	CHI	10.63	16.07	+5.44	7.98
52	Austin Ekeler	RB	WAS	15.17	21.49	+6.32	7.95
53	Duke Johnson	RB	BUF	9.19	11.82	+2.63	7.93
54	Jakeem Grant	WR	CLE	8.44	1.81	-6.63	7.89
55	Myles Gaskin	RB	SEA	14.88	10.21	-4.67	7.89
56	Joe Mixon	RB	HOU	14.71	17.99	+3.29	7.83
57	Lamar Jackson	QB	BAL	20.42	20.00	-0.42	7.81
58	CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	9.28	14.55	+5.27	7.78
59	John Ross	WR	PHI	11.46	4.56	-6.91	7.74
60	Adam Thielen	WR	PIT	14.94	15.37	+0.43	7.74
61	Chris Godwin Jr.	WR	TB	11.06	17.31	+6.26	7.69
62	Justin Herbert	QB	LAC	18.31	22.40	+4.08	7.62
63	James Robinson	RB	NO	16.81	12.42	-4.39	7.59
64	Allen Robinson	WR	DET	14.81	7.25	-7.56	7.56
65	Joshua Kelley	RB	TEN	9.67	2.13	-7.55	7.55
66	Colt McCoy	QB	ARI	6.20	6.85	+0.65	7.51
67	Josh Allen	QB	BUF	19.08	23.68	+4.60	7.48
68	Jeff Wilson	RB	MIA	10.69	6.44	-4.25	7.47
69	Terry McLaurin	WR	WAS	14.29	12.56	-1.73	7.43
70	Benny Snell	RB	PIT	8.23	0.82	-7.41	7.41
71	Curtis Samuel	WR	BUF	9.65	2.25	-7.40	7.40
72	Jordan Wilkins	RB	CLE	7.38	0.00	-7.38	7.38
73	Wayne Gallman	RB	SEA	8.18	0.82	-7.36	7.36
74	Ronald Jones	RB	DAL	12.13	5.28	-6.85	7.35
75	Kenyan Drake	RB	GB	13.67	8.86	-4.80	7.31
76	Jalen Hurts	QB	PHI	15.80	20.81	+5.01	7.30
77	Amari Cooper	WR	BUF	14.41	13.50	-0.91	7.29
78	Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	15.24	15.65	+0.41	7.29
79	Sterling Shepard	WR	TB	10.78	11.10	+0.32	7.28
80	Damiere Byrd	WR	HOU	12.38	5.13	-7.25	7.25
81	Travis Kelce	TE	KC	12.86	16.43	+3.57	7.24
82	Patrick Mahomes	QB	KC	19.46	21.27	+1.81	7.24
83	Gardner Minshew	QB	ARI	17.16	11.22	-5.94	7.23
84	Rex Burkhead	RB	HOU	10.22	6.69	-3.53	7.20
85	Nick Chubb	RB	HOU	14.37	15.38	+1.01	7.20
86	James White	RB	NE	8.14	10.40	+2.26	7.19
87	Justin Jackson	RB	DET	9.71	6.16	-3.55	7.18
88	Alexander Mattison	RB	MIA	7.80	7.87	+0.07	7.17
89	Tyrod Taylor	QB	GB	17.28	13.62	-3.65	7.12
90	Salvon Ahmed	RB	IND	10.63	3.51	-7.12	7.12
91	Michael Pittman	WR	PIT	9.01	14.04	+5.02	7.10
92	Matt Ryan	QB	IND	16.23	13.11	-3.12	7.05
93	Van Jefferson	WR	WAS	3.23	9.89	+6.66	7.01
94	Darren Waller	TE	MIA	16.32	12.14	-4.18	6.99
95	Russell Gage	WR	SF	9.60	12.54	+2.94	6.94
96	Dalvin Cook	RB	DAL	18.11	15.87	-2.24	6.94
97	Darrel Williams	RB	ARI	6.79	11.53	+4.74	6.87
98	D'Ernest Johnson	RB	NE	7.02	8.01	+0.98	6.83
99	Darrell Henderson	RB	LA	8.77	13.62	+4.85	6.81
100	Odell Beckham Jr.	WR	MIA	12.06	9.10	-2.96	6.77
101	Brian Hill	RB	SF	6.75	0.00	-6.75	6.75
102	Dante Pettis	WR	NO	5.20	8.45	+3.25	6.73
103	J.D. McKissic	RB	WAS	10.57	11.63	+1.06	6.70
104	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	WR	DAL	8.35	7.91	-0.44	6.70
105	Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	20.86	18.05	-2.80	6.70
106	Daniel Jones	QB	IND	15.09	15.23	+0.14	6.69
107	Tim Boyle	QB	NYG	2.75	6.08	+3.34	6.67
108	Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	15.73	19.44	+3.71	6.64
109	Darnell Mooney	WR	NYG	8.69	12.92	+4.23	6.64
110	Corey Davis	WR	NYJ	14.86	12.71	-2.15	6.63
111	Baker Mayfield	QB	TB	19.09	12.92	-6.17	6.62
112	Maxx Williams	TE	ARI	3.41	8.26	+4.85	6.59
113	Robbie Chosen	WR	WAS	13.15	8.15	-5.00	6.57
114	Allen Lazard	WR	NYJ	9.21	10.18	+0.97	6.55
115	Aaron Jones	RB	MIN	14.51	15.27	+0.76	6.55
116	David Moore	WR	CAR	6.54	0.00	-6.54	6.54
117	Kalif Raymond	WR	CHI	3.33	8.47	+5.14	6.52
118	Miles Sanders	RB	DAL	15.49	9.77	-5.72	6.48
119	Hunter Renfrow	WR	CAR	9.91	15.24	+5.33	6.48
120	Randall Cobb	WR	NYJ	8.69	9.05	+0.36	6.47
121	Boston Scott	RB	PIT	6.97	8.96	+2.00	6.44
122	Brandon Aiyuk	WR	SF	14.63	10.02	-4.61	6.44
123	JuJu Smith-Schuster	WR	KC	11.58	6.96	-4.62	6.42
124	Damien Harris	RB	BUF	9.11	14.01	+4.90	6.41
125	Dawson Knox	TE	BUF	6.20	10.94	+4.74	6.41
126	Giovani Bernard	RB	TB	9.91	6.37	-3.54	6.40
127	Tyron Johnson	WR	DAL	6.91	0.51	-6.39	6.39
128	Antonio Gibson	RB	NE	11.56	14.32	+2.75	6.33
129	Brandin Cooks	WR	BUF	13.20	14.49	+1.29	6.32
130	Nyheim Hines	RB	NO	10.57	6.86	-3.71	6.27
131	Christian Kirk	WR	SF	8.03	12.21	+4.19	6.25
132	D'Onta Foreman	RB	CLE	4.45	10.43	+5.98	6.22
133	Matt Breida	RB	NYG	6.13	6.92	+0.79	6.22
134	Aaron Rodgers	QB	PIT	18.93	20.83	+1.90	6.19
135	Mason Rudolph	QB	PIT	3.13	9.19	+6.06	6.16
136	Darius Slayton	WR	NYG	10.54	5.28	-5.26	6.13
137	Joe Flacco	QB	CIN	15.32	11.91	-3.41	6.08
138	C.J. Uzomah	TE	PHI	10.45	8.02	-2.43	6.07
139	Scott Miller	WR	PIT	7.78	3.18	-4.60	6.04
140	T.J. Hockenson	TE	MIN	10.72	12.11	+1.39	6.02
141	Brett Rypien	QB	MIN	6.02	0.00	-6.02	6.02
142	DK Metcalf	WR	PIT	14.79	14.37	-0.42	6.01
143	Kyler Murray	QB	MIN	19.23	21.46	+2.24	5.99
144	Sony Michel	RB	LAC	8.47	8.65	+0.18	5.98
145	Jalen Guyton	WR	LV	10.17	6.08	-4.09	5.97
146	AJ Dillon	RB	CAR	6.92	10.92	+4.00	5.97
147	Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	9.62	12.28	+2.66	5.97
148	Preston Williams	WR	CAR	7.66	2.30	-5.36	5.96
149	DeSean Jackson	WR	BAL	7.69	5.61	-2.08	5.96
150	Jacoby Brissett	QB	ARI	5.61	7.23	+1.62	5.94
151	David Montgomery	RB	HOU	16.13	15.00	-1.13	5.91
152	Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	7.81	11.00	+3.19	5.89
153	Cole Beasley	WR	NYG	11.36	9.96	-1.41	5.87
154	J.J. Taylor	RB	HOU	5.64	3.70	-1.94	5.86
155	Russell Wilson	QB	NYG	17.70	17.34	-0.36	5.85
156	Matthew Stafford	QB	LA	15.87	19.79	+3.92	5.85
157	DeAndre Hopkins	WR	BAL	16.29	14.72	-1.57	5.85
158	Hunter Henry	TE	NE	11.57	10.27	-1.31	5.82
159	Joe Burrow	QB	CIN	19.27	19.64	+0.37	5.80
160	Donovan Peoples-Jones	WR	DET	5.40	8.44	+3.03	5.80
161	Devonta Freeman	RB	BAL	12.01	9.19	-2.83	5.80
162	Cam Sims	WR	CAR	8.49	4.07	-4.43	5.80
163	Marvin Jones	WR	DET	11.82	10.94	-0.88	5.80
164	DeeJay Dallas	RB	JAX	8.19	3.54	-4.65	5.75
165	Marquise Brown	WR	PHI	12.17	14.27	+2.10	5.74
166	Julio Jones	WR	PHI	10.40	7.94	-2.45	5.72
167	Cedrick Wilson Jr.	WR	MIA	5.95	10.56	+4.61	5.70
168	Derek Carr	QB	NO	17.67	15.12	-2.55	5.69
169	Diontae Johnson	WR	HOU	11.68	17.15	+5.47	5.69
170	Devin Singletary	RB	NYG	9.44	11.64	+2.19	5.68
171	Tyler Boyd	WR	TEN	9.48	11.49	+2.01	5.67
172	Chase Daniel	QB	LAC	5.47	-0.20	-5.67	5.67
173	Quintez Cephus	WR	HOU	6.11	9.88	+3.77	5.65
174	Marcus Johnson	WR	NYG	6.49	3.54	-2.95	5.63
175	Jordan Howard	RB	NO	3.49	8.93	+5.44	5.63
176	Jared Goff	QB	DET	14.41	13.89	-0.52	5.63
177	Ezekiel Elliott	RB	LAC	15.18	14.83	-0.36	5.63
178	Kendrick Bourne	WR	ARI	7.41	10.38	+2.97	5.61
179	Anthony Miller	WR	BAL	6.81	4.83	-1.98	5.57
180	Carlos Hyde	RB	JAX	8.54	3.95	-4.59	5.56
181	Eric Ebron	TE	PIT	8.66	4.06	-4.60	5.55
182	Drew Sample	TE	CIN	7.46	1.91	-5.55	5.55
183	Laquon Treadwell	WR	IND	3.79	7.49	+3.70	5.54
184	KhaDarel Hodge	WR	ATL	7.01	2.62	-4.39	5.53
185	Mike Davis	RB	BAL	12.98	7.58	-5.40	5.52
186	Jamison Crowder	WR	WAS	12.15	9.14	-3.01	5.51
187	O.J. Howard	TE	HOU	6.98	3.35	-3.63	5.51
188	PJ Walker	QB	CLE	8.20	2.76	-5.45	5.45
189	Chase Edmonds	RB	WAS	11.44	11.94	+0.50	5.44
190	Jalen Reagor	WR	LAC	8.78	4.59	-4.19	5.43
191	Emmanuel Sanders	WR	BUF	9.24	9.05	-0.20	5.42
192	Carson Wentz	QB	MIN	19.58	15.18	-4.41	5.41
193	Marquez Callaway	WR	TB	5.21	8.93	+3.72	5.40
194	John Hightower	WR	LAC	5.36	0.00	-5.36	5.36
195	Zach Ertz	TE	WAS	10.47	10.72	+0.25	5.33
196	Braxton Berrios	WR	HOU	6.46	7.57	+1.11	5.30
197	DJ Chark	WR	LAC	13.47	11.47	-2.00	5.30
198	Phillip Lindsay	RB	IND	8.72	3.52	-5.20	5.28
199	Mark Ingram	RB	NO	8.44	7.80	-0.64	5.26
200	Chris Moore	WR	WAS	1.29	5.79	+4.50	5.26