Predicted vs. actual

A weekly backtest of the model. Per-position MAE, calibration by predicted-points decile, residual distribution, and rank fidelity.

Position

All QB RB WR TE

Format

PPR Standard

Season

2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020

QB MAE

6.25

531 weeks · -0.12 bias

RB MAE

5.53

1,143 weeks · +1.10 bias

WR MAE

5.15

1,901 weeks · +0.26 bias

TE MAE

3.95

947 weeks · +0.69 bias

Diagnostics — All positions · 4,522 weeks

MAE

5.12

lower is better

RMSE

6.69

penalizes large misses

Calibration · predicted vs. actual by decile

Each point is a decile of predicted points. A well-calibrated model sits on the 45° line — points above mean the model under-predicts; below, it over-predicts.

Residual distribution · actual − predicted

How miss-magnitudes spread out. Mass left of zero = over-predicted weeks; mass right = under-predicted. Centered, narrow = good.

< −15

10 (0%)

−15 to −10

155 (3%)

−10 to −5

906 (20%)

−5 to −2

1,094 (24%)

−2 to 0

659 (15%)

0 to 2

438 (10%)

2 to 5

471

Per-decile error decomposition

Rows are predicted-points deciles (D1 = bottom 10% of predictions, D10 = top 10%). Bias is the model's systematic over- or under-shoot within that bucket.

Decile	n	Pred (μ)	Actual (μ)	Bias	MAE	RMSE
D1	453	2.15	2.66	-0.51	2.66	4.30
D2	453	3.76	3.63	+0.13	3.60	4.70
D3	452	5.05	4.63	+0.42	3.90	5.07
D4	452	6.08	5.46	+0.62	4.41	5.59
D5	452	7.60	6.18	+1.42	5.32	6.43
D6	452	9.09	7.84	+1.25	5.50	6.71
D7	452	10.77	10.07	+0.70	6.38	7.89
D8	452	12.72	12.16	+0.57	6.38	7.95
D9	452	14.31	14.08	+0.23	6.20	8.13
D10	452	17.79	17.45	+0.34	6.89	8.48

Model versions in this slice

xgboost_wr_backfill_2022_20260516_002235WR:3895 · backfilled

xgboost_qb_backfill_2022_20260516_002214QB:1135 · backfilled

xgboost_te_backfill_2022_20260516_002256TE:2069 · backfilled

xgboost_rb_backfill_2022_20260516_002224RB:2423 · backfilled

No.	Player	Pos	Team	Pred ppg	Actual ppg	Δ ppg	MAE↓
1	Tim Boyle	QB	NYG	12.95	-2.88	-15.83	15.83
2	Chad Henne	QB	KC	12.05	-0.17	-12.21	12.21
3	Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	17.40	21.69	+4.29	11.02
4	Tevin Coleman	RB	SF	5.83	11.00	+5.17	10.74
5	Davante Adams	WR	LA	20.33	20.34	+0.01	10.62
6	Josh Johnson	QB	CIN	11.22	0.70	-10.52	10.52
7	Case Keenum	QB	CHI	10.27	0.16	-10.11	10.11
8	Marcus Mariota	QB	WAS	4.92	14.37	+9.45	9.88
9	Gardner Minshew	QB	ARI	13.58	7.36	-6.22	9.87
10	Josh Jacobs	RB	GB	13.06	19.31	+6.26	9.84
11	Jordan Howard	RB	NO	9.81	0.10	-9.71	9.71
12	Jordan Love	QB	GB	12.48	2.92	-9.56	9.56
13	Tyrod Taylor	QB	GB	15.18	5.66	-9.52	9.52
14	Carson Wentz	QB	MIN	15.88	14.10	-1.78	9.22
15	Trey Lance	QB	LAC	15.32	6.23	-9.09	9.10
16	Jerick McKinnon	RB	KC	3.06	11.55	+8.49	9.04
17	Duke Johnson	RB	BUF	9.42	0.40	-9.02	9.02
18	Joe Flacco	QB	CIN	7.86	9.67	+1.81	8.87
19	Mike Davis	RB	BAL	9.66	0.84	-8.82	8.82
20	Austin Ekeler	RB	WAS	14.66	21.92	+7.27	8.77
21	Tony Pollard	RB	TEN	10.89	15.55	+4.66	8.67
22	Teddy Bridgewater	QB	DET	14.97	7.60	-7.36	8.63
23	Jalen Hurts	QB	PHI	18.27	25.20	+6.94	8.61
24	Stefon Diggs	WR	NE	15.36	19.79	+4.43	8.53
25	Quintez Cephus	WR	HOU	9.66	1.17	-8.49	8.49
26	Saquon Barkley	RB	PHI	11.09	17.75	+6.66	8.37
27	Trevor Siemian	QB	ATL	13.44	5.08	-8.36	8.36
28	DeVante Parker	WR	NE	13.73	9.00	-4.73	8.24
29	Justin Fields	QB	KC	15.86	19.73	+3.87	8.17
30	Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	17.70	14.11	-3.59	8.05
31	Najee Harris	RB	LAC	20.31	13.26	-7.05	8.00
32	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	RB	KC	13.79	9.83	-3.96	7.99
33	Cooper Kupp	WR	SEA	18.06	22.38	+4.32	7.98
34	Cole Beasley	WR	NYG	10.19	2.38	-7.82	7.82
35	DJ Moore	WR	BUF	14.97	11.71	-3.26	7.78
36	Darrel Williams	RB	ARI	10.52	4.42	-6.09	7.78
37	Lamar Jackson	QB	BAL	19.07	19.67	+0.60	7.75
38	James Robinson	RB	NO	12.53	8.76	-3.77	7.68
39	Tyreek Hill	WR	MIA	14.03	19.36	+5.32	7.65
40	Mark Andrews	TE	BAL	12.83	12.70	-0.13	7.62
41	DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	11.17	15.09	+3.93	7.61
42	D'Onta Foreman	RB	CLE	7.87	8.61	+0.74	7.61
43	Curtis Samuel	WR	BUF	3.90	10.37	+6.47	7.59
44	CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	12.82	17.74	+4.92	7.58
45	Jaylen Waddle	WR	DEN	13.58	15.25	+1.66	7.57
46	A.J. Brown	WR	PHI	12.72	17.62	+4.90	7.53
47	Zay Jones	WR	ARI	8.60	12.59	+3.99	7.50
48	Christian Kirk	WR	SF	9.49	14.09	+4.61	7.49
49	George Kittle	TE	SF	12.15	13.37	+1.22	7.48
50	D'Ernest Johnson	RB	NE	8.07	0.60	-7.47	7.47
51	Amari Cooper	WR	BUF	13.58	14.47	+0.89	7.47
52	Rondale Moore	WR	MIN	7.22	10.99	+3.76	7.39
53	PJ Walker	QB	CLE	9.50	6.52	-2.98	7.32
54	Joe Burrow	QB	CIN	15.26	21.92	+6.65	7.29
55	Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	10.49	14.65	+4.16	7.28
56	Mike Evans	WR	SF	12.76	15.03	+2.26	7.27
57	Dante Pettis	WR	NO	9.83	3.94	-5.89	7.26
58	Dontrell Hilliard	RB	TEN	11.98	6.43	-5.55	7.24
59	Jerry Jeudy	WR	CLE	9.94	13.61	+3.67	7.21
60	Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	15.75	20.20	+4.45	7.20
61	Lil'Jordan Humphrey	WR	DEN	8.16	1.00	-7.16	7.17
62	Dan Arnold	TE	JAX	9.21	2.05	-7.16	7.16
63	Mike Williams	WR	LAC	13.47	13.58	+0.11	7.14
64	Mike Gesicki	TE	CIN	10.46	5.78	-4.68	7.12
65	Kareem Hunt	RB	KC	13.31	7.46	-5.85	7.10
66	Jamaal Williams	RB	NO	9.02	13.29	+4.27	7.10
67	Myles Gaskin	RB	SEA	11.79	4.70	-7.08	7.08
68	Jared Goff	QB	DET	12.72	16.72	+4.00	7.08
69	Ty'Son Williams	RB	ARI	8.53	1.50	-7.03	7.03
70	Kenny Golladay	WR	NYG	9.96	3.35	-6.61	7.01
71	Robbie Chosen	WR	WAS	9.37	4.35	-5.02	6.99
72	Kenyan Drake	RB	GB	9.20	7.67	-1.52	6.96
73	Trevor Lawrence	QB	JAX	15.82	17.39	+1.57	6.92
74	Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	12.88	16.73	+3.84	6.91
75	Mecole Hardman	WR	BUF	9.01	11.72	+2.72	6.90
76	Russell Gage	WR	SF	12.03	9.53	-2.50	6.89
77	Josh Reynolds	WR	NYJ	12.31	8.66	-3.65	6.88
78	Miles Sanders	RB	DAL	11.05	12.75	+1.70	6.88
79	Deonte Harty	WR	BAL	7.70	0.82	-6.88	6.88
80	Rashaad Penny	RB	PHI	10.14	10.44	+0.30	6.84
81	Robert Woods	WR	HOU	13.74	7.01	-6.74	6.83
82	Mitchell Trubisky	QB	TEN	4.38	10.55	+6.17	6.82
83	Derrick Henry	RB	BAL	20.00	18.92	-1.08	6.81
84	Chris Streveler	QB	NYJ	2.24	9.00	+6.76	6.76
85	Nelson Agholor	WR	BAL	8.41	5.37	-3.04	6.74
86	Aaron Jones	RB	MIN	13.31	14.62	+1.31	6.71
87	Jarvis Landry	WR	NO	11.53	6.69	-4.85	6.67
88	Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	19.71	20.48	+0.78	6.65
89	Patrick Mahomes	QB	KC	19.22	24.55	+5.34	6.65
90	Greg Dortch	WR	DET	1.69	7.19	+5.50	6.64
91	Laviska Shenault Jr.	WR	LAC	10.43	5.67	-4.76	6.63
92	Jamison Crowder	WR	WAS	9.60	3.00	-6.60	6.60
93	Mike White	QB	CAR	14.77	14.14	-0.62	6.59
94	Cooper Rush	QB	BAL	11.08	7.08	-4.00	6.58
95	Hunter Renfrow	WR	CAR	12.82	7.90	-4.92	6.58
96	Matthew Stafford	QB	LA	18.61	12.04	-6.57	6.57
97	David Montgomery	RB	HOU	15.18	11.11	-4.07	6.57
98	DeAndre Hopkins	WR	BAL	12.71	16.86	+4.14	6.56
99	Brandon Bolden	RB	LV	8.18	2.10	-6.08	6.53
100	Kadarius Toney	WR	CLE	10.76	7.01	-3.75	6.49
101	Joe Mixon	RB	HOU	14.26	17.11	+2.84	6.46
102	Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	15.18	13.31	-1.87	6.44
103	Javonte Williams	RB	DAL	13.83	10.50	-3.33	6.43
104	Zach Wilson	QB	NO	16.51	10.99	-5.52	6.40
105	Josh Palmer	WR	BUF	5.81	10.58	+4.77	6.39
106	Bryan Edwards	WR	KC	7.51	1.13	-6.38	6.38
107	Mark Ingram	RB	NO	11.37	5.01	-6.36	6.36
108	Tua Tagovailoa	QB	ATL	14.43	17.76	+3.33	6.36
109	Marquise Brown	WR	PHI	14.21	13.00	-1.21	6.35
110	Zack Moss	RB	CIN	9.10	4.76	-4.34	6.35
111	A.J. Green	WR	ARI	9.39	4.74	-4.65	6.31
112	Sam Ehlinger	QB	DEN	2.62	8.90	+6.28	6.29
113	Deon Jackson	RB	NYG	4.57	7.04	+2.47	6.26
114	Baker Mayfield	QB	TB	14.07	9.75	-4.32	6.23
115	Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	10.08	9.51	-0.57	6.18
116	Kyle Pitts	TE	ATL	11.91	7.56	-4.35	6.18
117	JuJu Smith-Schuster	WR	KC	10.78	11.10	+0.32	6.17
118	Corey Davis	WR	NYJ	10.43	7.51	-2.92	6.16
119	D'Andre Swift	RB	CHI	14.13	13.65	-0.48	6.16
120	K.J. Osborn	WR	TEN	7.18	9.15	+1.98	6.15
121	Evan Engram	TE	DEN	8.85	10.94	+2.10	6.14
122	Travis Kelce	TE	KC	16.33	18.61	+2.28	6.12
123	Juwan Johnson	TE	NO	4.09	8.43	+4.34	6.11
124	Keenan Allen	WR	LAC	14.10	16.40	+2.30	6.08
125	Chase Claypool	WR	MIA	11.36	7.24	-4.13	6.08
126	Maxx Williams	TE	ARI	7.66	1.60	-6.06	6.06
127	Tyler Lockett	WR	LV	11.84	14.96	+3.11	6.04
128	Michael Carter	RB	TEN	12.21	7.88	-4.33	6.04
129	Russell Wilson	QB	NYG	16.97	15.36	-1.61	6.02
130	Tom Brady	QB	TB	19.07	15.98	-3.09	5.98
131	Darrell Henderson	RB	LA	13.33	7.35	-5.98	5.98
132	Leonard Fournette	RB	BUF	15.09	14.13	-0.95	5.96
133	T.J. Hockenson	TE	MIN	10.52	12.79	+2.26	5.96
134	Dalvin Cook	RB	DAL	14.38	13.99	-0.39	5.95
135	Josh Allen	QB	BUF	20.93	24.72	+3.79	5.93
136	Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	14.36	15.78	+1.42	5.93
137	Samaje Perine	RB	CIN	7.33	8.88	+1.55	5.93
138	Mack Hollins	WR	NE	5.19	8.94	+3.75	5.82
139	Ty Montgomery	WR	NE	4.49	10.30	+5.81	5.81
140	Sam Darnold	QB	SEA	15.08	14.39	-0.69	5.79
141	Diontae Johnson	WR	HOU	15.87	10.63	-5.24	5.77
142	Cedrick Wilson Jr.	WR	MIA	7.60	1.84	-5.76	5.76
143	Matt Ryan	QB	IND	13.62	12.94	-0.68	5.74
144	Sony Michel	RB	LAC	8.23	2.51	-5.72	5.72
145	Tyler Higbee	TE	LA	9.36	9.50	+0.14	5.72
146	Taylor Heinicke	QB	LAC	16.81	12.88	-3.93	5.70
147	Latavius Murray	RB	BUF	6.59	12.21	+5.62	5.69
148	Khalil Herbert	RB	NYJ	6.51	9.06	+2.55	5.68
149	David Njoku	TE	CLE	7.48	10.14	+2.66	5.67
150	Matt Breida	RB	NYG	8.37	3.19	-5.18	5.66
151	Gabe Davis	WR	BUF	7.31	11.44	+4.13	5.65
152	Kirk Cousins	QB	LV	17.01	17.15	+0.14	5.65
153	Darnell Mooney	WR	NYG	14.25	9.23	-5.02	5.64
154	Ty Johnson	RB	BUF	7.67	3.57	-4.11	5.62
155	Shane Zylstra	TE	DET	5.21	5.13	-0.09	5.62
156	Cordarrelle Patterson	RB	PIT	11.99	11.90	-0.09	5.60
157	Adam Thielen	WR	PIT	14.02	10.59	-3.44	5.60
158	John Brown	WR	BUF	1.89	5.60	+3.71	5.60
159	James Washington	WR	NYG	5.58	0.00	-5.58	5.58
160	Damien Harris	RB	BUF	12.14	8.26	-3.88	5.58
161	Damien Williams	RB	ARI	5.77	0.20	-5.57	5.57
162	Dez Fitzpatrick	WR	LAC	5.53	0.00	-5.53	5.53
163	DK Metcalf	WR	PIT	13.70	13.34	-0.36	5.51
164	Marvin Jones	WR	DET	12.32	7.31	-5.02	5.50
165	Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	WR	IND	6.41	5.17	-1.24	5.48
166	Geno Smith	QB	NYJ	13.52	17.88	+4.35	5.47
167	Noah Brown	WR	WAS	5.46	7.16	+1.70	5.46
168	AJ Dillon	RB	CAR	9.93	9.86	-0.07	5.42
169	Zach Pascal	WR	ARI	6.92	2.46	-4.45	5.39
170	Nick Chubb	RB	HOU	15.89	16.55	+0.66	5.38
171	Tyler Conklin	TE	DET	9.13	7.83	-1.30	5.38
172	Mo Alie-Cox	TE	IND	6.12	3.85	-2.27	5.38
173	Colt McCoy	QB	ARI	13.04	8.20	-4.84	5.37
174	Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	8.49	6.41	-2.08	5.36
175	Kendrick Bourne	WR	ARI	8.63	5.52	-3.11	5.35
176	Tre'Quan Smith	WR	DET	7.15	5.28	-1.87	5.35
177	Daniel Jones	QB	IND	14.95	18.06	+3.12	5.32
178	Darius Slayton	WR	NYG	7.09	9.88	+2.79	5.31
179	Devin Duvernay	WR	ARI	5.16	8.29	+3.13	5.31
180	Courtland Sutton	WR	DEN	8.87	10.63	+1.75	5.31
181	Elijah Moore	WR	PHI	11.15	6.29	-4.86	5.30
182	Jacoby Brissett	QB	ARI	12.44	10.98	-1.46	5.29
183	James Conner	RB	ARI	13.48	15.40	+1.92	5.28
184	Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	17.91	16.55	-1.36	5.27
185	Rashod Bateman	WR	BAL	8.40	8.92	+0.52	5.26
186	Elijah Mitchell	RB	NE	11.01	8.72	-2.29	5.24
187	Jamal Agnew	WR	ATL	6.64	4.69	-1.96	5.24
188	Justin Jackson	RB	DET	8.64	3.65	-4.99	5.23
189	Melvin Gordon	RB	BAL	11.43	8.71	-2.72	5.20
190	Dyami Brown	WR	WAS	4.37	3.64	-0.72	5.18
191	Jeff Wilson	RB	MIA	8.45	9.49	+1.04	5.17
192	DJ Chark	WR	LAC	8.74	9.82	+1.08	5.17
193	Allen Lazard	WR	NYJ	7.78	11.65	+3.88	5.16
194	Damiere Byrd	WR	HOU	5.76	4.32	-1.45	5.12
195	Boston Scott	RB	PIT	7.17	3.08	-4.09	5.11
196	Brandon Zylstra	WR	DET	5.10	0.00	-5.10	5.10
197	Mac Jones	QB	SF	15.06	12.15	-2.91	5.10
198	Parris Campbell	WR	DAL	6.36	8.77	+2.41	5.06
199	Byron Pringle	WR	WAS	7.32	3.55	-3.77	5.06
200	Cole Kmet	TE	CHI	8.94	8.66	-0.27	5.03