Predicted vs. actual

A weekly backtest of the model. Per-position MAE, calibration by predicted-points decile, residual distribution, and rank fidelity.

Position

All QB RB WR TE

Format

PPR Standard

Season

2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020

QB MAE

6.89

532 weeks · -0.17 bias

RB MAE

5.32

1,170 weeks · +0.15 bias

WR MAE

5.32

1,852 weeks · +0.08 bias

TE MAE

3.96

1,002 weeks · +0.09 bias

Diagnostics — All positions · 4,556 weeks

MAE

5.20

lower is better

RMSE

6.90

penalizes large misses

Calibration · predicted vs. actual by decile

Each point is a decile of predicted points. A well-calibrated model sits on the 45° line — points above mean the model under-predicts; below, it over-predicts.

Residual distribution · actual − predicted

How miss-magnitudes spread out. Mass left of zero = over-predicted weeks; mass right = under-predicted. Centered, narrow = good.

< −15

19 (0%)

−15 to −10

167 (4%)

−10 to −5

746 (16%)

−5 to −2

1,097 (24%)

−2 to 0

679 (15%)

0 to 2

460 (10%)

2 to 5

505

Per-decile error decomposition

Rows are predicted-points deciles (D1 = bottom 10% of predictions, D10 = top 10%). Bias is the model's systematic over- or under-shoot within that bucket.

Decile	n	Pred (μ)	Actual (μ)	Bias	MAE	RMSE
D1	456	2.10	2.12	-0.02	2.27	3.27
D2	456	3.39	4.67	-1.28	3.69	5.36
D3	456	4.38	5.23	-0.85	4.20	5.91
D4	456	5.39	5.03	+0.35	4.72	6.32
D5	456	7.28	6.93	+0.36	5.52	6.81
D6	456	8.72	8.05	+0.68	5.03	6.43
D7	455	10.42	9.62	+0.80	6.60	8.01
D8	455	12.56	12.55	+0.01	6.33	7.86
D9	455	14.33	14.37	-0.04	6.88	8.65
D10	455	17.26	16.55	+0.72	6.83	8.54

Model versions in this slice

xgboost_qb_backfill_2024_20260516_002336QB:1258 · backfilled

xgboost_wr_backfill_2024_20260516_002343WR:3519 · backfilled

xgboost_te_backfill_2024_20260516_002348TE:1853 · backfilled

xgboost_rb_backfill_2024_20260516_002339RB:2244 · backfilled

No.	Player	Pos	Team	Pred ppg	Actual ppg	Δ ppg	MAE↓
1	Marcus Mariota	QB	WAS	4.28	22.82	+18.54	18.54
2	Sam Howell	QB	DAL	15.19	-0.84	-16.03	16.03
3	Sam Darnold	QB	SEA	3.90	18.06	+14.16	14.16
4	Jake Browning	QB	TB	13.12	-0.10	-13.21	13.21
5	Nick Mullens	QB	JAX	11.70	0.33	-11.37	11.37
6	Rashee Rice	WR	KC	9.99	16.23	+6.23	11.31
7	Chase Brown	RB	CIN	5.02	15.94	+10.92	11.16
8	Taylor Heinicke	QB	LAC	11.65	0.78	-10.87	10.87
9	Jarrett Stidham	QB	DEN	10.98	0.25	-10.73	10.73
10	Justin Fields	QB	KC	18.47	11.91	-6.55	10.61
11	Tyson Bagent	QB	CHI	10.51	-0.07	-10.57	10.57
12	Mike Williams	WR	LAC	14.58	4.02	-10.56	10.56
13	Jameis Winston	QB	NYG	8.17	11.77	+3.60	10.20
14	Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	9.93	18.51	+8.57	10.10
15	Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	16.69	23.71	+7.02	9.87
16	Keenan Allen	WR	LAC	18.90	12.72	-6.18	9.68
17	Diontae Johnson	WR	HOU	11.76	8.10	-3.66	9.54
18	Saquon Barkley	RB	PHI	15.24	21.43	+6.19	9.53
19	Andy Dalton	QB	PHI	16.65	9.83	-6.83	9.51
20	De'Von Achane	RB	MIA	10.50	17.64	+7.14	9.48
21	Khalil Herbert	RB	NYJ	11.38	2.86	-8.52	9.12
22	Mitchell Trubisky	QB	TEN	11.03	1.91	-9.12	9.12
23	Jauan Jennings	WR	SF	5.40	14.03	+8.64	9.04
24	Raheem Mostert	RB	LV	14.34	5.45	-8.88	9.02
25	Joe Mixon	RB	HOU	14.51	17.77	+3.26	8.92
26	Kenny Pickett	QB	CAR	12.80	5.03	-7.77	8.81
27	Michael Pittman	WR	PIT	18.24	10.36	-7.88	8.78
28	Derrick Henry	RB	BAL	12.57	19.99	+7.42	8.76
29	Rashid Shaheed	WR	SEA	7.62	13.63	+6.01	8.70
30	Clayton Tune	QB	GB	8.27	-0.42	-8.69	8.69
31	Jameson Williams	WR	DET	7.24	14.15	+6.90	8.64
32	Tyler Huntley	QB	BAL	3.52	12.13	+8.61	8.61
33	Kirk Cousins	QB	LV	15.55	12.60	-2.95	8.56
34	Desmond Ridder	QB	GB	13.75	5.26	-8.49	8.49
35	Cooper Kupp	WR	SEA	13.98	14.58	+0.60	8.47
36	Cedric Tillman	WR	CLE	7.21	8.93	+1.73	8.43
37	Josh Allen	QB	BUF	20.29	23.69	+3.40	8.43
38	Chris Olave	WR	NO	14.06	9.59	-4.47	8.39
39	Cooper Rush	QB	BAL	3.46	9.13	+5.67	8.28
40	Brandon Aiyuk	WR	SF	14.91	8.91	-6.00	8.25
41	Mike Evans	WR	SF	13.44	17.17	+3.74	8.24
42	Jared Goff	QB	DET	15.15	19.09	+3.94	8.23
43	Drew Lock	QB	SEA	8.46	11.45	+2.99	8.17
44	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	SEA	8.67	14.88	+6.22	8.11
45	Tyreek Hill	WR	MIA	18.94	12.84	-6.11	8.09
46	Jordan Addison	WR	MIN	10.51	14.17	+3.66	8.02
47	Jonathan Mingo	WR	DAL	10.50	2.48	-8.02	8.02
48	Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	13.05	17.48	+4.43	7.98
49	Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	DET	14.08	21.35	+7.27	7.98
50	Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	11.89	16.11	+4.22	7.86
51	Jerry Jeudy	WR	CLE	9.04	13.97	+4.93	7.79
52	Davante Adams	WR	LA	16.46	17.86	+1.40	7.70
53	Joe Burrow	QB	CIN	15.96	21.93	+5.98	7.63
54	Dameon Pierce	RB	PHI	7.06	4.35	-2.71	7.58
55	Travis Etienne	RB	NO	16.24	8.68	-7.56	7.56
56	Lamar Jackson	QB	BAL	18.38	25.32	+6.93	7.52
57	Jaylen Waddle	WR	DEN	14.53	9.97	-4.56	7.49
58	Allen Lazard	WR	NYJ	6.80	10.50	+3.70	7.42
59	Quentin Johnston	WR	LAC	6.55	11.65	+5.10	7.41
60	Kendrick Bourne	WR	ARI	11.88	5.42	-6.46	7.39
61	Joshua Dobbs	QB	NE	16.70	15.42	-1.28	7.37
62	Darrynton Evans	RB	CHI	7.60	0.30	-7.30	7.30
63	George Kittle	TE	SF	11.16	15.77	+4.61	7.30
64	Chris Godwin Jr.	WR	TB	12.61	19.69	+7.08	7.27
65	Puka Nacua	WR	LA	16.28	18.78	+2.51	7.27
66	Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	19.20	11.95	-7.25	7.25
67	Terry McLaurin	WR	WAS	12.70	15.75	+3.05	7.20
68	Malik Willis	QB	MIA	4.28	8.63	+4.35	7.18
69	Bijan Robinson	RB	ATL	14.45	20.10	+5.65	7.14
70	Gerald Everett	TE	CHI	7.96	0.82	-7.13	7.13
71	Darnell Mooney	WR	NYG	9.38	12.24	+2.86	7.13
72	Jonnu Smith	TE	PIT	7.76	12.41	+4.65	7.13
73	Baker Mayfield	QB	TB	17.07	21.52	+4.44	7.11
74	David Njoku	TE	CLE	10.44	13.50	+3.06	7.11
75	Jordan Mason	RB	MIN	4.35	9.58	+5.23	7.10
76	Gus Edwards	RB	LAC	10.65	5.45	-5.20	7.09
77	Luke Musgrave	TE	GB	8.71	1.64	-7.07	7.07
78	Bryce Young	QB	CAR	13.08	13.93	+0.86	7.05
79	Alec Pierce	WR	IND	9.50	10.09	+0.59	7.04
80	Keaton Mitchell	RB	LAC	8.71	1.70	-7.01	7.01
81	Amari Cooper	WR	BUF	13.08	9.44	-3.64	6.95
82	Cole Kmet	TE	CHI	10.70	7.53	-3.18	6.91
83	Drake London	WR	ATL	11.40	16.52	+5.12	6.86
84	Trey McBride	TE	ARI	9.63	15.24	+5.61	6.82
85	Curtis Samuel	WR	BUF	10.18	4.62	-5.56	6.79
86	James Cook	RB	BUF	14.24	16.67	+2.43	6.78
87	Breece Hall	RB	NYJ	14.16	15.06	+0.90	6.77
88	Josh Downs	WR	IND	10.09	13.11	+3.02	6.76
89	James Conner	RB	ARI	13.42	15.86	+2.44	6.74
90	Tua Tagovailoa	QB	ATL	16.39	16.51	+0.12	6.73
91	Gabe Davis	WR	BUF	9.71	5.39	-4.33	6.69
92	Deebo Samuel Sr.	WR	WAS	13.12	10.37	-2.74	6.68
93	DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	14.50	15.34	+0.84	6.68
94	Jimmy Garoppolo	QB	LA	13.18	19.86	+6.68	6.68
95	Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	18.12	14.56	-3.56	6.67
96	Tony Jones	RB	ARI	4.84	11.50	+6.66	6.66
97	D'Onta Foreman	RB	CLE	10.22	3.57	-6.65	6.65
98	Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	17.33	18.60	+1.27	6.65
99	Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	14.36	18.68	+4.31	6.63
100	Christian Kirk	WR	SF	13.58	8.86	-4.71	6.63
101	Brock Purdy	QB	SF	16.81	17.79	+0.98	6.62
102	Zach Charbonnet	RB	SEA	8.21	10.99	+2.78	6.61
103	Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	13.82	11.73	-2.10	6.57
104	Anthony Richardson	QB	IND	12.53	14.85	+2.33	6.56
105	Isiah Pacheco	RB	DET	12.79	8.13	-4.66	6.55
106	Zay Flowers	WR	BAL	13.02	12.32	-0.69	6.54
107	Nick Chubb	RB	HOU	12.81	7.91	-4.90	6.53
108	Courtland Sutton	WR	DEN	10.35	15.02	+4.67	6.53
109	Mac Jones	QB	SF	13.38	10.11	-3.27	6.49
110	Ameer Abdullah	RB	IND	3.66	8.35	+4.69	6.47
111	Jalen Hurts	QB	PHI	19.08	21.01	+1.93	6.45
112	Kenneth Walker III	RB	KC	11.44	16.47	+5.03	6.39
113	T.J. Hockenson	TE	MIN	13.77	8.65	-5.12	6.39
114	Rashod Bateman	WR	BAL	5.54	10.91	+5.37	6.35
115	Jayden Reed	WR	GB	10.31	11.59	+1.28	6.32
116	Travis Kelce	TE	KC	14.24	12.21	-2.03	6.30
117	Jerome Ford	RB	WAS	11.36	9.57	-1.79	6.29
118	DeAndre Hopkins	WR	BAL	12.09	9.19	-2.90	6.24
119	Marvin Mims Jr.	WR	DEN	5.56	7.62	+2.06	6.23
120	Daniel Jones	QB	IND	15.00	13.53	-1.47	6.16
121	Mike Gesicki	TE	CIN	4.92	9.07	+4.15	6.15
122	Devin Singletary	RB	NYG	10.77	6.84	-3.92	6.14
123	Adam Thielen	WR	PIT	14.36	13.95	-0.41	6.14
124	Rico Dowdle	RB	PIT	6.52	12.36	+5.85	6.14
125	Treylon Burks	WR	WAS	7.61	1.50	-6.11	6.11
126	DJ Moore	WR	BUF	16.05	14.01	-2.05	6.08
127	Robert Woods	WR	HOU	8.79	2.74	-6.06	6.06
128	Tyjae Spears	RB	TEN	8.95	9.47	+0.52	6.05
129	Kyler Murray	QB	MIN	14.53	17.48	+2.96	6.04
130	Jaylen Warren	RB	PIT	12.97	8.27	-4.70	6.02
131	Khalil Shakir	WR	BUF	7.11	12.17	+5.06	6.01
132	Odell Beckham Jr.	WR	MIA	7.88	1.91	-5.96	5.96
133	Matthew Stafford	QB	LA	14.92	13.41	-1.51	5.96
134	Ezekiel Elliott	RB	LAC	9.26	3.99	-5.27	5.95
135	Jahan Dotson	WR	ATL	7.65	3.11	-4.54	5.93
136	Cade Otton	TE	TB	8.93	10.04	+1.11	5.92
137	Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	17.16	18.95	+1.79	5.91
138	Tank Bigsby	RB	PHI	4.19	8.06	+3.88	5.89
139	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	WR	DAL	4.88	6.50	+1.62	5.88
140	K.J. Osborn	WR	TEN	7.76	2.67	-5.09	5.86
141	Zack Moss	RB	CIN	11.74	10.24	-1.51	5.83
142	Kyle Pitts	TE	ATL	10.13	7.72	-2.42	5.80
143	Ty Chandler	RB	NO	7.69	2.03	-5.66	5.77
144	Kareem Hunt	RB	KC	7.70	11.53	+3.84	5.77
145	Zay Jones	WR	ARI	8.37	2.73	-5.64	5.76
146	Rachaad White	RB	WAS	15.00	13.31	-1.70	5.75
147	Josh Reynolds	WR	NYJ	8.42	4.36	-4.06	5.74
148	CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	17.78	17.56	-0.22	5.74
149	Calvin Ridley	WR	TEN	12.06	11.56	-0.50	5.73
150	Tank Dell	WR	HOU	12.58	10.00	-2.58	5.73
151	Elijah Moore	WR	PHI	9.50	7.11	-2.39	5.72
152	Will Levis	QB	TEN	14.81	9.99	-4.81	5.70
153	Josh Jacobs	RB	GB	13.90	17.24	+3.34	5.68
154	A.J. Brown	WR	PHI	16.27	16.68	+0.42	5.66
155	Miles Sanders	RB	DAL	8.15	7.03	-1.12	5.66
156	Demarcus Robinson	WR	SF	8.48	7.26	-1.22	5.65
157	DK Metcalf	WR	PIT	14.39	12.75	-1.64	5.59
158	Mark Andrews	TE	BAL	11.36	11.11	-0.25	5.57
159	Justin Herbert	QB	LAC	17.25	16.79	-0.46	5.54
160	George Pickens	WR	DAL	14.06	11.74	-2.32	5.52
161	Emari Demercado	RB	KC	7.93	4.21	-3.72	5.50
162	Nico Collins	WR	HOU	13.92	17.55	+3.63	5.49
163	Darius Slayton	WR	NYG	8.85	6.88	-1.97	5.46
164	Tyler Lockett	WR	LV	11.08	7.12	-3.97	5.45
165	D'Andre Swift	RB	CHI	13.06	12.16	-0.90	5.41
166	Skyy Moore	WR	GB	5.39	0.00	-5.39	5.39
167	Tucker Kraft	TE	GB	5.50	9.61	+4.11	5.38
168	Joshua Kelley	RB	TEN	5.56	0.20	-5.36	5.36
169	Russell Wilson	QB	NYG	16.58	15.68	-0.90	5.36
170	Kadarius Toney	WR	CLE	5.22	-0.13	-5.35	5.35
171	Garrett Wilson	WR	NYJ	12.64	14.82	+2.18	5.33
172	Javonte Williams	RB	DAL	10.55	9.29	-1.26	5.24
173	Allen Robinson	WR	DET	6.20	0.96	-5.24	5.24
174	Trenton Irwin	WR	NYJ	5.99	0.75	-5.24	5.24
175	Calvin Austin III	WR	NYG	3.72	7.11	+3.38	5.23
176	Dontayvion Wicks	WR	PHI	7.93	6.50	-1.43	5.22
177	Aidan O'Connell	QB	LV	11.35	10.39	-0.96	5.22
178	Tommy DeVito	QB	NE	11.93	6.74	-5.19	5.19
179	Jalen Tolbert	WR	MIA	4.77	8.94	+4.17	5.16
180	Jalin Hyatt	WR	NYG	6.42	1.42	-5.00	5.15
181	Stefon Diggs	WR	NE	15.51	15.24	-0.27	5.12
182	Tyler Conklin	TE	DET	9.19	7.62	-1.57	5.11
183	Ray-Ray McCloud	WR	NYG	3.24	8.13	+4.89	5.04
184	C.J. Stroud	QB	HOU	16.81	12.96	-3.85	5.04
185	Sam LaPorta	TE	DET	12.00	10.91	-1.09	5.02
186	Deshaun Watson	QB	CLE	15.82	10.96	-4.86	5.02
187	Michael Carter	RB	TEN	6.92	11.93	+5.02	5.02
188	Keaontay Ingram	RB	KC	5.01	0.00	-5.01	5.01
189	Will Dissly	TE	LAC	2.75	7.29	+4.55	5.01
190	Geno Smith	QB	NYJ	13.99	15.65	+1.66	5.00
191	Isaiah Likely	TE	NYG	5.20	8.25	+3.05	4.98
192	JuJu Smith-Schuster	WR	KC	5.76	4.80	-0.96	4.98
193	Hunter Henry	TE	NE	8.85	9.09	+0.23	4.98
194	Kyren Williams	RB	LA	16.03	17.01	+0.98	4.97
195	Chris Rodriguez Jr.	RB	JAX	4.87	4.50	-0.37	4.97
196	Kayshon Boutte	WR	NE	4.59	8.13	+3.54	4.95
197	Olamide Zaccheaus	WR	ATL	4.55	7.49	+2.94	4.93
198	Durham Smythe	TE	BAL	5.95	1.02	-4.92	4.92
199	Tanner Hudson	TE	CIN	7.02	4.28	-2.75	4.92
200	Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	WR	IND	7.41	9.69	+2.28	4.90