Wednesday, July 15, 2026Vol. I · No. 1 · Predictions Edition

2025 / PPR scoring

Predicted vs. actual

A weekly backtest of the model. Per-position MAE, calibration by predicted-points decile, residual distribution, and rank fidelity.

Position

All QB RB WR TE

Format

PPR Standard

Season

2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020

QB MAE

7.09

662 weeks · -0.01 bias

RB MAE

5.01

1,545 weeks · +0.89 bias

WR MAE

4.60

2,484 weeks · +0.72 bias

TE MAE

3.74

1,269 weeks · +0.28 bias

Diagnostics — All positions · 5,960 weeks

MAE

4.80

lower is better

RMSE

6.42

penalizes large misses

Calibration · predicted vs. actual by decile

Each point is a decile of predicted points. A well-calibrated model sits on the 45° line — points above mean the model under-predicts; below, it over-predicts.

Residual distribution · actual − predicted

How miss-magnitudes spread out. Mass left of zero = over-predicted weeks; mass right = under-predicted. Centered, narrow = good.

< −15

22 (0%)

−15 to −10

226 (4%)

−10 to −5

944 (16%)

−5 to −2

1,571 (26%)

−2 to 0

1,074 (18%)

0 to 2

616 (10%)

2 to 5

552

Per-decile error decomposition

Rows are predicted-points deciles (D1 = bottom 10% of predictions, D10 = top 10%). Bias is the model's systematic over- or under-shoot within that bucket.

Decile	n	Pred (μ)	Actual (μ)	Bias	MAE	RMSE
D1	596	1.60	1.45	+0.15	1.92	2.94
D2	596	2.91	2.33	+0.57	2.67	3.58
D3	596	3.99	3.68	+0.31	3.43	4.53
D4	596	5.13	4.84	+0.28	4.07	5.32
D5	596	6.48	5.70	+0.78	4.63	5.86
D6	596	7.85	7.06	+0.79	5.19	6.52
D7	596	9.42	8.98	+0.44	5.56	6.94
D8	596	12.06	10.96	+1.11	6.47	7.89
D9	596	14.17	13.43	+0.73	7.10	8.69
D10	596	17.19	16.45	+0.74	6.97	8.88

Model versions in this slice

xgboost_rb_20260516_031153RB:2216

xgboost_wr_20260516_025357WR:34

random_forest_wr_20260515_011335WR:663

random_forest_te_20260515_011435TE:340

xgboost_qb_20260516_031152QB:1209

random_forest_qb_20260515_112150QB:85

random_forest_qb_20260515_015004QB:306

random_forest_qb_20260515_010958QB:272

random_forest_rb_20260515_112354RB:153

xgboost_rb_20260516_025356RB:22

random_forest_te_20260515_015130TE:510

random_forest_rb_20260515_011130RB:204

random_forest_te_20260515_112825TE:68

xgboost_te_20260516_025358TE:15

random_forest_wr_20260515_015112WR:986

random_forest_rb_20260515_015032RB:646

random_forest_wr_20260515_112700WR:204

xgboost_te_20260516_031155TE:1993

xgboost_wr_20260516_031154WR:3734

xgboost_qb_20260516_025354QB:15

No.	Player	Pos	Team	Pred ppg	Actual ppg	Δ ppg	MAE↓
1	Anthony Richardson	QB	IND	20.39	1.08	-19.31	19.32
2	Jimmy Garoppolo	QB	LA	15.52	-0.33	-15.85	15.85
3	Zach Wilson	QB	NO	13.84	0.34	-13.49	13.49
4	Malik Nabers	WR	NYG	18.28	14.28	-4.01	13.46
5	Gardner Minshew	QB	ARI	13.19	-0.08	-13.27	13.27
6	Drew Lock	QB	SEA	12.81	0.03	-12.77	12.77
7	Russell Wilson	QB	NYG	16.04	8.31	-7.74	12.37
8	Elijah Mitchell	RB	NE	11.76	0.00	-11.76	11.76
9	Jameis Winston	QB	NYG	13.28	14.43	+1.14	11.71
10	Cooper Rush	QB	BAL	11.96	0.43	-11.53	11.53
11	Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	14.10	24.51	+10.40	11.05
12	Jaxson Dart	QB	NYG	12.73	17.26	+4.52	9.96
13	Mason Rudolph	QB	PIT	12.90	3.00	-9.90	9.90
14	Justin Fields	QB	KC	13.56	15.85	+2.29	9.88
15	Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	14.92	21.31	+6.39	9.83
16	Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	DET	17.17	21.58	+4.41	9.82
17	Andy Dalton	QB	PHI	12.17	2.38	-9.79	9.79
18	Joe Flacco	QB	CIN	14.52	11.28	-3.23	9.69
19	Malik Willis	QB	MIA	12.39	12.79	+0.40	9.65
20	Aidan O'Connell	QB	LV	14.35	4.78	-9.57	9.57
21	Carson Wentz	QB	MIN	4.66	14.07	+9.41	9.41
22	Puka Nacua	WR	LA	16.01	23.44	+7.43	9.39
23	Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	15.42	19.60	+4.18	9.38
24	Brian Robinson	RB	ATL	13.02	3.68	-9.35	9.35
25	Adam Thielen	WR	PIT	12.00	2.83	-9.17	9.17
26	Drake London	WR	ATL	14.69	16.82	+2.14	9.06
27	Bijan Robinson	RB	ATL	17.28	21.81	+4.53	8.96
28	Joshua Dobbs	QB	NE	9.36	0.53	-8.83	8.83
29	Garrett Wilson	WR	NYJ	15.52	14.21	-1.31	8.68
30	Najee Harris	RB	LAC	12.50	3.87	-8.64	8.64
31	Davis Mills	QB	HOU	4.18	11.43	+7.25	8.63
32	Lamar Jackson	QB	BAL	21.59	16.53	-5.06	8.54
33	James Cook	RB	BUF	13.88	17.78	+3.89	8.43
34	Mitchell Trubisky	QB	TEN	4.14	7.78	+3.64	8.42
35	Jake Browning	QB	TB	1.68	9.75	+8.07	8.39
36	Kenneth Gainwell	RB	TB	5.61	13.02	+7.41	8.38
37	Emeka Egbuka	WR	TB	12.09	11.51	-0.58	8.37
38	Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	14.69	19.06	+4.36	8.36
39	Jake Tonges	TE	SF	1.47	9.33	+7.86	8.16
40	George Pickens	WR	DAL	12.32	17.17	+4.85	8.14
41	TreVeyon Henderson	RB	NE	12.69	12.13	-0.56	8.13
42	A.J. Brown	WR	PHI	16.91	14.69	-2.22	8.12
43	Riley Leonard	QB	IND	5.31	6.20	+0.89	8.12
44	Chris Godwin Jr.	WR	TB	15.53	9.22	-6.30	8.08
45	Darnell Mooney	WR	NYG	13.16	5.49	-7.68	8.06
46	DJ Moore	WR	BUF	14.12	10.13	-4.00	8.05
47	Jacoby Brissett	QB	ARI	11.98	16.25	+4.27	8.02
48	Mac Jones	QB	SF	11.23	11.82	+0.60	7.98
49	Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	12.84	12.77	-0.06	7.98
50	Jameson Williams	WR	DET	11.36	12.94	+1.57	7.91
51	Matthew Stafford	QB	LA	13.69	20.61	+6.92	7.86
52	Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	14.14	18.46	+4.31	7.85
53	Jerry Jeudy	WR	CLE	14.03	7.10	-6.93	7.83
54	Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	16.96	9.15	-7.81	7.81
55	Michael Wilson	WR	ARI	7.92	12.98	+5.06	7.80
56	Tanner McKee	QB	PHI	10.45	3.44	-7.01	7.80
57	Sam Darnold	QB	SEA	18.41	13.85	-4.56	7.79
58	Darren Waller	TE	MIA	9.09	9.86	+0.77	7.79
59	Isaac Guerendo	RB	SF	7.76	0.00	-7.76	7.76
60	Cam Skattebo	RB	NYG	15.66	15.96	+0.30	7.64
61	Brock Purdy	QB	SF	16.39	19.71	+3.32	7.62
62	Tucker Kraft	TE	GB	9.04	14.65	+5.62	7.61
63	Kirk Cousins	QB	LV	14.92	10.35	-4.57	7.55
64	Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	13.78	8.36	-5.42	7.52
65	Patrick Mahomes	QB	KC	16.70	20.41	+3.70	7.52
66	Rome Odunze	WR	CHI	9.91	12.17	+2.26	7.51
67	Kyle Williams	WR	NE	8.92	3.51	-5.40	7.51
68	Josh Allen	QB	BUF	21.99	22.79	+0.80	7.47
69	Tory Horton	WR	SEA	6.43	8.14	+1.70	7.43
70	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	SEA	15.62	21.17	+5.55	7.43
71	Ray-Ray McCloud	WR	NYG	9.70	2.32	-7.38	7.38
72	Drake Maye	QB	NE	13.47	20.70	+7.23	7.36
73	Michael Penix Jr.	QB	ATL	7.72	13.36	+5.65	7.34
74	Josh Johnson	QB	CIN	3.79	8.13	+4.33	7.27
75	Alec Pierce	WR	IND	7.84	12.22	+4.38	7.25
76	Kenny Pickett	QB	CAR	8.47	1.29	-7.18	7.21
77	RJ Harvey	RB	DEN	9.92	12.15	+2.23	7.18
78	Teddy Bridgewater	QB	DET	8.14	0.96	-7.18	7.18
79	Dillon Gabriel	QB	CLE	7.48	7.01	-0.47	7.16
80	Daniel Jones	QB	IND	11.93	17.42	+5.49	7.16
81	Rico Dowdle	RB	PIT	12.96	12.72	-0.23	7.14
82	Kenneth Walker III	RB	KC	15.72	11.29	-4.43	7.13
83	Tyrod Taylor	QB	GB	7.62	9.91	+2.29	7.13
84	Travis Etienne	RB	NO	9.09	14.94	+5.85	7.11
85	Caleb Williams	QB	CHI	14.55	18.72	+4.17	7.08
86	Christian Watson	WR	GB	7.47	13.24	+5.77	7.03
87	Trevor Lawrence	QB	JAX	15.24	19.89	+4.65	7.02
88	Josh Jacobs	RB	GB	17.39	15.81	-1.58	6.98
89	Tua Tagovailoa	QB	ATL	15.17	11.48	-3.69	6.97
90	Cooper Kupp	WR	SEA	14.01	7.27	-6.74	6.96
91	Tank Bigsby	RB	PHI	9.48	3.59	-5.89	6.96
92	Rashee Rice	WR	KC	17.73	18.76	+1.04	6.92
93	Chris Olave	WR	NO	11.10	16.75	+5.65	6.86
94	J.J. McCarthy	QB	MIN	12.64	12.54	-0.10	6.82
95	Kimani Vidal	RB	LAC	5.24	9.07	+3.83	6.81
96	Trey McBride	TE	ARI	17.68	18.58	+0.91	6.80
97	Jerome Ford	RB	WAS	10.06	3.35	-6.71	6.79
98	Derrick Henry	RB	BAL	16.57	16.44	-0.13	6.79
99	Quentin Johnston	WR	LAC	9.07	13.17	+4.10	6.79
100	Michael Pittman	WR	PIT	11.78	11.91	+0.13	6.73
101	DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	14.74	11.87	-2.86	6.67
102	Joe Burrow	QB	CIN	19.09	16.81	-2.28	6.63
103	Parker Washington	WR	JAX	6.97	11.54	+4.57	6.61
104	Geno Smith	QB	NYJ	14.47	11.59	-2.88	6.61
105	Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	17.64	11.85	-5.79	6.57
106	Justice Hill	RB	BAL	9.13	6.52	-2.61	6.56
107	Shedeur Sanders	QB	CLE	10.86	10.61	-0.25	6.51
108	Tyler Huntley	QB	BAL	12.44	8.03	-4.41	6.49
109	Kyle Allen	QB	BUF	6.33	-0.15	-6.48	6.48
110	Ashton Jeanty	RB	LV	14.62	14.42	-0.21	6.46
111	Kyle Pitts	TE	ATL	9.30	12.40	+3.10	6.45
112	Courtland Sutton	WR	DEN	12.45	12.92	+0.47	6.45
113	Devin Culp	TE	TB	8.33	1.90	-6.43	6.43
114	Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	WR	IND	7.96	1.53	-6.43	6.43
115	George Kittle	TE	SF	12.98	14.68	+1.70	6.41
116	Calvin Ridley	WR	TEN	11.21	6.76	-4.45	6.37
117	Marcus Mariota	QB	WAS	13.43	12.55	-0.88	6.36
118	Jaylen Waddle	WR	DEN	9.34	12.13	+2.79	6.34
119	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	RB	NYG	11.68	10.72	-0.96	6.29
120	Colby Parkinson	TE	LA	5.45	9.27	+3.82	6.23
121	Javonte Williams	RB	DAL	9.97	15.18	+5.21	6.20
122	Devin Singletary	RB	NYG	9.14	6.40	-2.74	6.20
123	Rashid Shaheed	WR	SEA	13.21	8.70	-4.51	6.20
124	Colston Loveland	TE	CHI	7.29	10.32	+3.03	6.19
125	Max Brosmer	QB	MIN	6.79	0.60	-6.19	6.19
126	Brock Bowers	TE	LV	13.05	14.68	+1.63	6.18
127	Breece Hall	RB	NYJ	15.47	12.98	-2.49	6.18
128	Allen Lazard	WR	NYJ	8.58	2.56	-6.03	6.16
129	Brian Thomas Jr.	WR	JAX	14.48	9.91	-4.56	6.13
130	Cam Ward	QB	TEN	9.71	10.98	+1.27	6.13
131	Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	ARI	10.55	10.65	+0.10	6.12
132	Ray Davis	RB	BUF	7.50	3.77	-3.73	6.12
133	Bo Nix	QB	DEN	15.46	17.93	+2.47	6.11
134	Wan'Dale Robinson	WR	TEN	11.25	13.62	+2.37	6.09
135	Tyler Shough	QB	NO	15.41	14.36	-1.05	6.08
136	David Montgomery	RB	HOU	13.51	9.82	-3.69	6.06
137	Troy Franklin	WR	DEN	6.82	10.42	+3.60	6.06
138	Justin Herbert	QB	LAC	14.75	17.93	+3.18	6.04
139	Kareem Hunt	RB	KC	11.87	8.55	-3.32	6.03
140	Jordan Love	QB	GB	16.99	15.68	-1.31	6.00
141	Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	13.80	14.11	+0.31	6.00
142	Stefon Diggs	WR	NE	14.42	12.37	-2.05	5.99
143	Ladd McConkey	WR	LAC	14.48	11.31	-3.17	5.99
144	Bryce Young	QB	CAR	11.94	13.63	+1.69	5.98
145	Keenan Allen	WR	LAC	12.63	10.75	-1.88	5.98
146	Jawhar Jordan	RB	HOU	10.57	7.42	-3.15	5.92
147	Jordan Mason	RB	MIN	12.57	8.06	-4.52	5.92
148	Roschon Johnson	RB	CHI	6.19	0.28	-5.91	5.91
149	Jared Goff	QB	DET	15.59	17.47	+1.88	5.89
150	Ryan Flournoy	WR	DAL	3.17	7.60	+4.43	5.87
151	Davante Adams	WR	LA	16.31	15.92	-0.38	5.86
152	Kayshon Boutte	WR	NE	8.16	8.86	+0.71	5.85
153	Cody White	WR	SEA	6.46	2.25	-4.21	5.82
154	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	RB	WAS	9.46	8.25	-1.21	5.80
155	Xavier Legette	WR	CAR	7.67	5.95	-1.72	5.78
156	Chase Edmonds	RB	WAS	5.75	0.00	-5.75	5.75
157	Ricky Pearsall	WR	SF	7.54	9.84	+2.30	5.71
158	AJ Barner	TE	SEA	4.46	8.66	+4.21	5.71
159	Jalen Hurts	QB	PHI	19.51	18.82	-0.70	5.71
160	Saquon Barkley	RB	PHI	17.11	14.52	-2.59	5.70
161	Travis Kelce	TE	KC	13.26	11.36	-1.90	5.69
162	Oronde Gadsden II	TE	LAC	7.24	8.76	+1.52	5.68
163	Audric Estimé	RB	NO	5.68	9.62	+3.94	5.68
164	DeMario Douglas	WR	NE	9.50	5.99	-3.51	5.67
165	Cade Otton	TE	TB	10.55	8.15	-2.41	5.66
166	DeAndre Hopkins	WR	BAL	8.61	3.94	-4.67	5.66
167	Tutu Atwell	WR	MIA	6.76	3.90	-2.86	5.65
168	Tim Patrick	WR	JAX	6.51	3.98	-2.53	5.65
169	Jalen McMillan	WR	TB	7.92	7.47	-0.44	5.65
170	Deebo Samuel Sr.	WR	WAS	10.14	11.76	+1.63	5.64
171	Isaac TeSlaa	WR	DET	6.07	5.42	-0.65	5.64
172	Aaron Jones	RB	MIN	15.32	9.89	-5.43	5.64
173	Jake Ferguson	TE	DAL	8.59	11.06	+2.48	5.64
174	Rachaad White	RB	WAS	11.39	8.41	-2.98	5.61
175	Sean Tucker	RB	TB	7.24	5.38	-1.86	5.60
176	Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	10.23	12.34	+2.11	5.58
177	Chase Brown	RB	CIN	14.62	16.62	+2.00	5.58
178	Baker Mayfield	QB	TB	19.58	16.00	-3.58	5.55
179	Tez Johnson	WR	TB	5.04	6.16	+1.12	5.54
180	Jaleel McLaughlin	RB	DEN	9.45	3.92	-5.53	5.53
181	Chimere Dike	WR	TEN	5.67	7.54	+1.86	5.53
182	Zach Charbonnet	RB	SEA	8.36	11.34	+2.98	5.51
183	Parris Campbell	WR	DAL	5.49	0.00	-5.49	5.49
184	Chris Oladokun	QB	KC	7.16	3.73	-3.43	5.45
185	Hunter Henry	TE	NE	11.24	10.52	-0.72	5.42
186	Joe Milton III	QB	DAL	7.98	2.58	-5.40	5.40
187	Nico Collins	WR	HOU	15.24	15.08	-0.16	5.38
188	Rashod Bateman	WR	BAL	8.05	4.26	-3.79	5.37
189	Omarion Hampton	RB	LAC	14.07	15.08	+1.00	5.35
190	Jordan Addison	WR	MIN	12.91	9.65	-3.26	5.34
191	Harold Fannin Jr.	TE	CLE	9.96	11.65	+1.70	5.34
192	Quinshon Judkins	RB	CLE	11.38	12.13	+0.75	5.28
193	Emanuel Wilson	RB	SEA	5.78	5.56	-0.22	5.27
194	Woody Marks	RB	HOU	9.08	9.07	-0.01	5.25
195	Nate Carter	RB	ATL	7.24	2.00	-5.24	5.24
196	Tre Tucker	WR	LV	9.18	9.51	+0.33	5.22
197	Dalton Kincaid	TE	BUF	9.73	10.51	+0.78	5.21
198	Efton Chism III	WR	NE	5.79	2.06	-3.73	5.21
199	James Conner	RB	ARI	16.29	11.10	-5.19	5.19
200	D'Andre Swift	RB	CHI	14.36	14.29	-0.07	5.19